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TRANSCRIPT
MaritimeSecurityThreats&SupplyChainRisk
PeterCook
Agenda
• Historicalperspectiveofmaritimesecurityandhowthingshavechanged.• Problemsdefiningcontemporarydefinitionofmaritimesecurityandmulti-facetedaspectsandthreatsofthegenre.• Whatdoesitmeantome?
HistoryofSecurityatSea
“Controloftheseabymaritimecommerceandnavalsupremacymeanspredominantinfluenceintheworld.”
ATMahan
Mostshipsflewtheflagoftheirnationalregistries
PostWWIIChanges
Openregistrieswereinitiallyusedtoavoidincreasinglabourcostsandalcoholprohibition
Containerisationsignificantlyspeededupcargohandling,
reducingcostsRevolutionisedshipbuildingtechnology
“Theworld’s[commercial]fleethasmorethandoubledinsizesince2001,”
UnitedNationsConferenceonTrade&DevelopmentReviewofMaritimeTransport2013
Growthincommercialshipping!
CommercialShippingDrivers:
PerfectMarket
Shippingcompanies,operators,managers&charterers(internationalshippingassociations)
FlagStates(commercialentities)
MarineInsurance
Todayover80%oftheglobalcommercialfleetisflaggedwithOpenRegistries
OpenRegistriesDON’Thaveoceangoingnavies.
InternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)
EuropeanNaviesdecline1995-2013• FrenchNavy47%reduction
• GermanNavy31%reduction
• ItalianNavy40%reduction
• SpanishNavy5%reduction
• UKNavy44%reduction
Source:IISSMilitaryBalance2013
WhatisMaritimeSecurity?
SevenDimensionsofMaritimeSecurity:• StateonState• TradeProtection• ResourceManagement• Smuggling• Terrorism• Disasters(natural&man-made)• Oceanography
SevenDimensionsofMaritimeSecurity:• StateonState• TradeProtection• ResourceManagement• Smuggling• Terrorism• Disasters(natural&man-made)• Oceanography
StateonState
USSLassen Oct15
“TheSouthChinaSeaistheMitteleuropa ofthetwenty-firstcentury.”Kaplan
StateonState
HSV2-Swift(UAEflagged)attackedwithYemenimissiles(1Oct16)inBeM.
SaudiArabianFrigateattackedInBeM by3smallvessels,onevessel(unmanned)explodedonimpact,killing2Saudisailors(30Jan17)
CaptJeffDaviesUSNofthePentagon,said,“WeseenevidencethatHouthisarelayingminesinwatersoutsideatLeastoneoftheir[Yemen]ports.Weofficiallyhaveagreatconcernforthefreedomofnavigationthere.”3Feb17
ImpactoftheclosingoftheBabelMandeb/SuezCanal.
From To Via Distance @15ktsindays Remarks
Fujairah(StraitsofHormuz)
Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)
SuezCanal 5172nm 14.4 Mostdirect,quickestandshortestroute.
Fujairah(StraitsofHormuz)
Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)
CapeofGoodHope
11213nm 31.2 Takes16.8dayslongerforaone-waytripand33.6dayslongerforaroundtripa116%increase
Singapore Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)
SuezCanal 6927 19.2 Mostdirect,quickestandshortestroute.
Singapore Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)
CapeofGoodHope
10705 29.7 Takes10.5dayslongerforaone-waytripand21dayslongerforaroundtripa54%increase
TradeProtection
IMBPiracyMap21Apr10IMBPiracyMap2Apr12
IMBPiracyMap2Nov14IMBPiracyMapfor2015
IMBPiracyMapfor2016IMBPiracyMapas@6Dec17
TakenfromReCAAP ReportJan-Jun17
AbuSayyafGroup• BasilanGroup• Maute Group
ResourceManagement(Oil&Gas)
ResourceManagement(UnderseaMining)
ResourceManagement(IUUFishing)
Smuggling
90%ofeverythingmovesbysea!
The SantaMaria,acruiseliner takenateamof24IberianterroristsoffthecoastofVenezuelaon23January1961inthesocalledOperationDULCINEAagainstthePortuguesegovernment.
Terrorism
Achille Lauro
TheAchille Lauro,acruiselinertakenoverby4PalestineLiberationFront(PLF)terroristsintheMediterraneanwhensurprisedbyacrewmember.OnewheelchairboundUSpassengerwasmurdered.TerroristsdisembarkedatPortSaid.
“WhileWesterndefenceexpenditureandinvestmentinsophisticatedweaponrygrew,itwasaspeedboatpackedwithimprovisedexplosivesthatalmostsunktheUSSCOLEin2000.”
ProfessorRichardHolmes
USSCOLEAden2000
MVLimburg
InOctober2002TheMVLimburg,anoiltankercarryingalmost400Kbarrelscrude,offthecoastofYemen,wasattackedbyanAlQaedaterroristinasmallboatwithaWaterborneImprovisedExplosiveDevice(WBIED)detonatedonthestarboardside,almost90Kbarrelsofcrudeleakedintothesea.
Superferry 14
InFebruary2004a10KGTferrydepartedManilawith899passengers&crewonboard.ATVsetcontaining3.6kgofexplosivesblewuponehourafterdeparting.Theexplosioncausedafirethatspreadthroughoutthevessel.Deadandmissing(presumeddrowned)180.
Mumbai
InNovember2008,10membersofaPakistaniAlQaedaterroristscarriedoutaverywellplannedandcoordinated“amphibiousraid”on12targetsintheportcityofMumbailasting4days,killingmorethan160peopleandinjuringover300,havingexploitedtheweaknessoftheseasideportsecuritymeasures.
MStar
InNovember2010theMStar,anoiltankerunderwayat10-12kts,transitingtheStraitsofHormuzatnightwasattackedwithaWBIED.Evidenceandresultsoftheinvestigationhavenotbeenreleased.
Cosco AsiaSuezCanal
On31st August2013terroristsattackedaContainershipcarrying10KTEUasittransitedtheSuezCanal.Clearlyawellplannedandcoordinatedattackagainstoneofthekeyglobalchokepoints
“AchillesHeelofWesternEconomies”statingthat“ifasinglesupertankerweretobeattackedinoneofthechokepointsorhijackedandscuttledinoneofthenarrowsealanestheconsequenceswouldbephenomenal”
November2014ISISconductanattackagainstanEgyptiannavalvesselintheMediterraneanusingastand-offmissilekilling8sailors.
EgyptianNavalVesselsattacked
TerroristsattackedtheBardo MuseumintheportofLaGoulette,Tunisiaaspassengersfromtwocruiseshipsweregettingoffbusestovisitthesite.Thetouristsranintothemuseumseekingshelter,pursuedbythegunmen,a3hoursiegeensued.
TunisMarch2015
Karachi,PakistanSeptember2015
On6th September10AlQaedamilitantsandsomemembersofthePakistannavyattemptedtocapturethefrigatePNSZULFIQAR,toallegedlyattackUSnavalvesselspatrollingintheIndianOcean.
ArticleinFTJanuary2016
GaliciaSpirit,aLNGcarrier,attackedbymaninsmallboatwithWBIED25Oct16.
Disasters,natural/man-made
Oceanography
Globalsupplychainandvulnerabilities• Thegrowingglobalpopulationandincreaseinmiddleclasswillresultinagrowthofthedemand;• CoalandIronOretradewillincreaseoverthenext12yearsto2030,linkedtotheurbanisationofChinaandIndiaandtherequirementforsteel;“ConsequentlytheBulkFleetisexpectedtogrowwithCapesizevessels2.5-3timescomparedtoHandyandPanamax(1.5-1.8)”.• “63%increaseinoilsupplyby20130”• ThelargestincreaseinLNGimportwillcomefromenergy-hungryIndiaandChina”• “Shipslargerthan7,600TEUtogrow6-6.5times”
InformationtakenfromGlobalMarineTrends2030byLloyd’sRegister,Qinetiq andUniversityofStrathclyde;
Plaguesoftheseas:
• Piracyisatropicaldiseasethatisimpossibletoeradicate.• Asthevolumeoftrademovingbyseaincreasesthequantitiesofcontrabandmovingbyseawillinevitablyincreaseaswell.• Aspressureonnaturalresources(water,food,fishetc)growindifferentpartsoftheworld,alongwithotherenvironmentalpressures(SSTandSeaLevelsrising)themassmovementofpeoplewillreachunprecedentedlevels.
Summary
• Theonlyconstantinlifeischange!• Theproblemsofdefiningthecontemporarydefinitionofmaritimesecurityisnewcomplexandchallenging.• Whatdoesitmeantome?• Increasedemand• Increasedthreat• Greaterunpredictability!• Higherrisk,Higherreturn!- Maybe
Questions