marine-life data & analysis - northeast ocean...
TRANSCRIPT
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Marine-life Data & Analysis
Patrick N. HalpinMarine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Duke University
Marine Life Data & Analysis Team (MDAT) Principal Investigator
Brian Kinlan (Co-I), Earvin Balderama (Co-I), Mike Fogarty (Co-I)
Jason Roberts, Arliss Winship, Corrie Curtice, Jesse Cleary
Northeast Regional Ocean Council Public Webinar
August 27, 2014
Andreas Trepte, www.photo-natur.de
PBS.org
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Overview
• Team review
• Timeline review
• Expert working groups
– Data acquisitions
– Data product options
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Marine-life Data & Analysis Team
• Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab – Duke University
– Pat Halpin, Jason Roberts, Corrie Curtice, Jesse Cleary
• NOAA – NCCOS
– Brian Kinlan (Co-I), Arliss Winship
• NOAA – NMFS/NEFSC – EcoAP
– Mike Fogarty (Co-I), Charles Peretti
• Loyola University
– Earvin Balderama
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A multi-institutional team with a single-point
of contact for NROC and the RPB
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Project timeline
Data AcquisitionData Acquisition
Data ProductsData Products
Analysis & Model ProductsAnalysis & Model Products
IntegrationIntegration
Expert input/review
Expert input/review
Expert input/review
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seabird productsmammal & turtle products
fish products
Duke-MGEL
Product
database
Duke-MGEL
NOAA-NCCOS NOAA-NEFSC
seabirds fishmarine mammals
sea turtles
product integration
Northeast
portal
Northeast
portal
stakeholder review
stakeholder review
marine spatial planning applications
OBIS-SEAMAP
OBIS-USA
data
dissemination
& archive
Product
dissemination
NOAA Marine Cadastre
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Questions?
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Avian Working Group 8-1-2014
discussion topics
• How were season definitions decided?
• How is prioritization of species decided?
• Species with enough observations will all be modeled
• Species with too few observations need to be assessed
for modeling potential
• How could species be grouped, ie: terns?
• How can models be combined, pre- or post- model
• Nearshore vs. at sea species, models
• Post processing options,
ie: hot spots, diversity spots
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At-Sea Avian Survey Effort Summary,
as of Aug 1, 2014Compendium of Avian
Occurrence Information
in the Atlantic
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Species Table with Transect Segment Counts from all Atlantic At-Sea Data
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1. Prioritization and species selection for analysis
2. At-sea focused analyses vs shore/estuarine/marsh/land-based
analyses
3. Grouping of species
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Product Examples
From Balderama, Gardner and Reich, in prep.
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TitleSynthetic map products: abundance hotspots
SP
UE
(bird
s p
er 1
5 m
inu
te s
urv
ey p
er k
m2)
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Synthetic map products: diversity hotspotsS
ha
nn
on
Div
ers
ity In
de
x (H
’)
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Questions?
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Marine Mammal & Sea Turtle
Working Group 8-7-2014
discussion topics
• What additional line transect surveys we should incorporate?
• What spatial extent does NROC want?
• Should we summarize models into multi-species summaries (e.g. all
baleen whales)?
• How to handle situations where density modeling is not possible?
• Rare species
• Near-shore / estuarine areas
• How to best present model uncertainty?
• Do members of the working group have expertise in particular
species, and would they be interested in reviewing models in detail
offline?
• Should we produce alternative products, other than density
models?
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Density modeling process in a nutshell
(1) Conduct line transect surveys
(2) Link survey tracklines and animal
sightings to oceanographic observations
(3) Predict animal density (animals/km2)
from oceanographic conditions using
multivariate statistics
(4) Produce density maps for use in
marine spatial planning processes
NOAA and other partners
Duke
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Approach, philosophy, and key assumptions
• Use a habitat-based approach, with generalized additive models (GAMs)
• When sufficient sightings are available, fit different models where different behaviors or relationships are expected (e.g. breeding vs. feeding seasons)
• When few sightings are available, fit one model to available sightings
• When sightings are very sparse, distribute density uniformly
• Define species-specific seasons based on patterns in the sightings and reports in the literature
• For rare species that may be ecologically similar (e.g. beaked whales), group their sightings and model the group
• For ambiguous sightings in which the definitive sightings appear to show distinct habitats (e.g. “fin/sei whale”), we are experimenting with a habitat-based classification model prior to density modeling
• For ambiguous sightings in which the definitive sightings do not show distinct habitats (e.g. “pilot whale”), model the group
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Marine mammal aggregation data overview
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NOAA NARWSS:
13 years, 4 seasons
UNCW Surveys of
Navy Training
Areas:
5 years, 4 seasons
UNCW Right
Whale
Surveys
CetMap Study Area
Atlantic SurveysSummer (Red), Fall (Yellow),
Winter (Blue), Spring (Green)
328,000 km NOAA NARWSS:
13 years, 4 seasons
UNCW Surveys of
Navy Training
Areas:
5 years, 4 seasons
UNCW Right
Whale
Surveys
667,000 km
CetMap Study Area
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Marine mammal survey
data
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Ma
rine
ma
mm
al a
nd
sea
turtle
sigh
ting
s
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Humpback whale
Model schematic
Winter
Humpback whale
Model schematic
Summer
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Humpback whale
Climatological model
Winter prediction
Humpback whale
Climatological model
Summer prediction
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Predicted temporal
variabilityUnsmoothed 30-day moving average
Comparison of Humpback whale abundance predicted at a daily time step for
different time periods. Individual years were predicted using contemporaneous
models. “All years (mean)” averages the individual years, giving the mean annual
abundance of the contemporaneous model. “Climatological” was predicted using
the climatological model.
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Example: Survey & observation density
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Questions?
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Fish Working Group 8-12-2014
discussion topics
• Summary of species covered by data sets in-hand
• Regulatory and other considerations of species
• Data input opportunities
• Under-represented species, from trawl surveys
• Nearshore vs. offshore trawls
• Type of analyses options
• Map and animation data product
options
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NO
AA
Sp
ecie
s –
da
tase
ts in-h
an
d
NOAA Fish Species
Datasets
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Prioritization and species selection for
analysis (abbreviated…)
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Atlantic herring – keystone species
Forage fish –potential prey indicator;
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Total biomass
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Atlantic Cod distribution over time
NEFSC Spring Bottom Trawl Survey 1968 – 2008
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Stakeholder Input
• Future synthesis products
– Identify focal species
– Mapping products and visualization options
– Visualizing uncertainty
– Portal integration
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Questions
• Species - Which species are of highest priority?
• Resolution and Extent - What spatial resolution of predictions
and over what geographic extent would be most useful for
marine spatial planning? What time scales are of interest?
Contact email: