MarineCore

Service

MY OCEAN

MyOcean SAM, 27-28 April 2011, Rome, Italy

WP 6Monitoring & Forecasting

Center for Baltic

Nicolai Kliem

Presented by Jun She

Danish Meteorological Institute

Marine Core Service

Reminder - Partnership

DMI

Danish Meteorological Institute

SMHI

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

FMI

Finnish Meteorological Institute

MSI

Marine Systems Institute

BSH

Bundesamt für Seeschifffart und Hydrographie

Marine Core Service

Reminder - Partnership

WP 6Baltic Sea MFC

(coordination DMI)

R&D DevelopmentMaintenance

Production CalVal

BSHDMIFMISMHI

BSHDMIFMISMHI

BSHDMIFMISMHI

BSHDMIFMIMSISMHI

Marine Core Service

Reminder - Objectives for R&D

Main objective was Integrate existing Baltic Sea 3D models into one

operational forecasting system Integrate best practice for code for V1 stream 2 Develop assimilation schemes for Sea Ice, SST & T/S Choose and calibrate bio-module

Main issues Combine forces in model code development Same code, different set-ups

Marine Core Service

R&D : main achievements

Main achievements, model code

New updated model code for V1 (stream2)• Code freeze: Sep 2010

• Bugfixing, testing etc• Release: Nov 2010

• Validation simulation for 2007-2008• Validation report: Feb 2011

Main achievements, data assimiliation

• Data assimilation schemes has been developed and implemented • Operational production V1 will assimilate SST and sea ice

concentration• Re-analysis will assimilate T&S

Marine Core Service

Sea surface temperature on April 24, 2005

Observations

With EnOIWithout DA

Development of data assimilation at DMI

Marine Core Service

Combination of information via data assimilation (PDAF, SEIK Filter)

Improved analyses and forecast of e.g.

- SST- Ice cover

SST: satellite (AVHRR)SST: simulation (BSHcmod)

Development of data assimilation at BSH

Marine Core Service

Status of model code

Code revision through Subversion DMI version has formed the base code New features:

Generalised representation of hydrostatics and pressure gradient force

Dynamic vertical coordinate Short-wave penetration Improved wind stress parameterization Improved submodel coupling interface (e.g. to eco-model) 6-hourly scheduling

Marine Core Service

Reminder - Objectives for Dev. & Maintenance

ObjectivesImplement the Baltic MFC V1

Steps/issues– Define product standards– Interfaces with TACs and MFCs– Tools for post processing and delivery– Code maintenance– Documentation– Technical and product validation

Marine Core Service

Dev. & Maint. : main achievements

Main achievements are • New model for V1 stream2• SVN repository for code exchange• Documentation of code and environment on web• Discussed interface with NWS MFC• V1 structure by consortium approach

Main difficulties Making sure that we are all strict applying same model, same

standards etc.

Remaining tasks Launch of V1 stream2 Model adjustments for V2

Marine Core Service

Reminder - Objectives for Production

Objectives for V1– Real time production by 4 Pus– Min. two PU run with DA SST & ice– Min. two PU run with bio-module– Consolidate into one forecast– Re-analysis (20 years with DA T/S)

Objectives for V2– Multi-model ensemble prediction

Marine Core Service

Production : main achievements

Main achievements are V0:

– Baltic V0 products on ftp & THREDDS servers– User requests handled

V1:– V1 system has been set up– Incidents handled by DMI 24/7-staff– Requests handled by DU (DMI)– All PU has set up their own service desk by email

V1 Remaining objectives – Re-analysis in progress

Marine Core Service

Examples of Products

Objectives for V1• Twice daily 60 hour forecast • Re-analysis (20 years with DA T/S)

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Reminder - Objectives for Cal / Val

Objectives Calibrate bio-module Validate opr products Validate re-analysis

Issues Several PUs to follow same procedure

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Cal/Val : main achievements

Main achievements Validation period for 2007-2008 Simulation done by 3 PUs Extensive report showing Product Quality

Main difficulties Lots of data transferred and lots of plots produced.

Remaining tasks Same task (reduced no of figures) for V2

Marine Core Service

Monthly mean surface current July in 2007

Sea level validation 2007-2008

Marine Core Service

Sea level validation: comparison between Pus, 2007-2008

RM

SD

Marine Core Service

DMI Sea level validation: correlation vs RMSD

Marine Core Service

Stations used for T/S profile validation

Marine Core Service

Examples from validation simulation 2007-2008

Marine Core Service

Examples from validation simulation, Arkona Basin, Temperature 2007

Marine Core Service

Examples from validation simulation , Arkona Basin, Salinity 2007

Marine Core Service

Scientific Challenges– Improve vertical mixing modelling– Assimilation: T/S profiles, sea ice– Ecomodel Cal/Val– Multi-model ensemble– Optimise ice model

Main Scientific Challenges

Marine Core Service

Technical Challenges– Coordinate data flow among partners– Implement the best practices in a single model

Operational Challenges– Responding on User Requests

Ultimate Challenges– There are already many operational models for the Baltic among

MyOcean partners and outside MyOcean. It is important to coordinate MyOcean activities to show the benefit and better quality for all users of MyOcean products.

Future Challenges

Marine Core Service

Past (event, work or tasks achieved) :– June 2009 : release 0.1 of HBM– January 2010 : first report of 3DVAR– November 2010 : release 1.0 of HBM– February 2011 : model HBM integrated and tested

Future :– (May/)June 2011 : V1 stream2 operational– October : Release 2.0 of HBM– December : Re-analysis in MyOcean catalogue and available for

external users

Calendar

Marine Core Service

WP 11EXPENSES

Actual(March2010)

Variance versus Budget Comments

  K€ K€ %  

Coordination   + 5 + 10% More…

R&D   - 10 - 2% Less…

Dev/Maint.        

Production        

Cal/Val        

WP        

Coordination        

1st reporting period : Budget

Figures will be provided by PMO

as soon as your partners have

finished reporting and will be

added to your presentation.

Be ready to give short

explanations on main deviances

during your presentation...

We are talking about estimated

budget (best estimates) !

~ 2 mn

MarineCore

Service

MY OCEAN

MyOcean SAM, 27-28 April 2011, Rome, Italy

Thank you!