march investor roadshow | greg canavan | keynote presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Market Bullish, Economy Rubbish
Why the stock market will rise as the economy weakens
ASX200 – bullish breakout…
Banks – all-‐Ame highs
Thanks to interest rates…
Thanks to a poor economy…
• Prolonged low interest rates = poor economic structure
• Creates the need for always lower rates
• And so on and so on…
• Won’t produce a sustainable recovery
Low rates = asset inflaAon
• But will produce asset price inflaAon and a lower $AUD
• Houses/stocks/bonds etc rise as PE raAos expand
• Promotes use of speculaAve, not producAve capital
When will it end?
• When global or local recession hits
• Too much debt/leverage in world to handle a recession
• Risks capital flight from Australia. To hit housing/banks?
CommodiAes and gold
• Thanks to US dollar bull market – outlook not promising
• Must disAnguish between USD and AUD.
• Some charts to illustrate…
CRB index -‐ USD
CRB index -‐ AUD
Gold in USD
Gold in AUD