march 7-hanson estimating sexual...

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Estimating Sexual Recidivism Risk for Individuals Who Have Been Many Years

Offense Free in the CommunityTexas Council on Sex Offender Treatment

28th Annual ConferenceSan Marcos, TexasMarch 8, 2020

R. Karl Hanson, Ph.D., C.PsychCarleton University and Ryerson University

[email protected]

@rkarlhanson

www.static99.org

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Co‐authors

David Thornton Sharon Kelley James Mundt

Co‐Authors

Elizabeth Letourneau

Andrew J.R. Harris

Maaike Helmus

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Applied Questions

1. How to assess current sexual recidivism risk for individuals who have been many years sexual offense free in the community?

2. How to assess sexual recidivism risk for individuals whose current index offence is not a sexual offence?

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Two Approaches

• Standardized risk levels

– Hanson et al. (2018)

• Numeric estimates of risk

– Thornton et al. (2019)

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For both approaches

• Total amount of time free in the community since release from index sexual offense (years/days)

• Whether or not the individual has been convicted of a nonsexual offense since release from his index sexual offence.

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Sources of Numeric Estimates

• Empirical estimates available from

– Static‐99R/Static‐2002R

– Static‐99R/STABLE‐2007

– Static‐2002R/STABLE‐2007

– VRS‐SO (Static, Dynamic, Treatment Change)

– SOTIPS

• Any other method

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STATIC‐99R

• Age

• Ever lived with a lover

• Current non‐sexual violence

• Prior non‐sexual violence

• Prior sexual offences

• 4+ sentencing dates

• Non‐contact sexual offences

• Unrelated victims

• Stranger victims

• Male victims

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Number StandardizedRiskLevel

Static-99R

ScoresMidpoint percentile

Predicted5-year

Recidivism rate (%)

Risk Ratio

IVery

Low Risk-3, -2 2.8 0.9 – 1.3 < 0.26

IIBelow

Average-1, 0 14.8 1.9 – 2.8 0.37 - .0.52

IIIAverage

Risk1, 2, 3 49.1 3.9 – 7.9 1.0

IV-aAbove

Average4, 5 83.4 11.0 – 15.2 1.94 – 2.70

IV-b

WellAbove

Average6 or more 96.2 20.5 – 53.0 > 3.77

Static-99R 5 year Sex

Logistic Regression Estimates

Score Predicted Recidivism Rate

95% C.I.

-3 0.9 0.6 1.3

-2 1.3 1.0 1.8

-1 1.9 1.4 2.5

0 2.8 2.2 3.5

1 3.9 3.3 4.7

2 5.6 4.8 6.5

3 7.9 7.0 8.8

4 11.0 10.0 12.1

5 15.2 13.8 16.6

6 20.5 18.4 22.8

7 27.2 24.0 30.7

8 35.1 30.5 40.0

9 43.8 37.8 50.1

10 53.0 45.6 60.3

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Static-99R Recidivism Estimates

ROUTINE SAMPLEEstimated 5-year sexual

recidivism rates

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STABLE-2007

1. Significant Social Influences2. Capacity for Relationship Stability3. Emotional Identification with Children4. Hostility Towards Women5. General Social Rejection/Loneliness6. Lack of Concern for Others7. Impulsive Acts8. Poor Cognitive Problem Solving9. Negative Emotionality/Hostility10. Sex Drive/Preoccupation11. Sex as Coping12. Deviant Sexual Interests13. Cooperation with Supervision 13

“Relatively enduring traits or characteristics that are related to offending Endure for months or years (e.g., alcoholism, intimacy deficits)”

0 -No problem 1 -some concern/slight problem2 -present/definite concern

STABLE-2007 Scores

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

Sta

tic-

99R

Sco

res

-3 I I I I I I I I II II II II III III III III III III III III III


-1 I I II II II II II II II II III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa

0 I I II II II II II II II II III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa

1 II II II III III III III III III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb



4 III III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb


6 III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb




10+ III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb14

STABLE-2007 Scores

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

Sta

tic-

99R

Sco

res















EvaluatorWorkbook

p 9

“Fred”

Static-99R 1

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STABLE-2007 Scores

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

Sta

tic-

99R

Sco

res















EvaluatorWorkboo

k

p 9

“Fred”

Static-99R 1STABLE-2007 13

STABLE-2007 Scores

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

Sta

tic-

99R

Sco

res















EvaluatorWorkboo

k

p 9

“Fred”

Static-99R 1STABLE-2007 13

Risk Level IVa

Logistic Regression Estimates

Level Predicted Recidivism Rate

95% C.I.

I 2.8 0.0 8.1

II 3.4 0.6 6.6

III 6.1 3.0 9.1

IV - a 11.8 6.0 17.6

IV - b 21.9 13.2 30.6

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Static-99R/STABLE-2007 Recidivism EstimatesEstimated 3-year sexual recidivism rates

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VRS-SO Static Factors(Wong & Olver)

• Age at time of Release• Age at first Sexual Offense• Sex Offender Type• Prior Sexual Offenses• Unrelated Victims• Number and Gender of Victims• Prior sentencing dates

VRS-SO Dynamic Factors

Sexually deviant lifestyle (.85)

Sexual compulsivity (.66)

Offense planning (.79)

Criminal personality (.43)

Cognitive distortions (.65)

Interpersonal aggression (.70)

Emotional Control ( DNL)

Insight (.81)

Substance Abuse (.50)

Community support (.33)

Released to high risk situations

(.41)

Sexual offending cycle (.75)

Impulsivity (.84)

Compliance with community

supervision (.46)

Treatment compliance (.69)

Deviant sexual preference (.79)

Intimacy Deficits ( DNL)

VRS-SO Risk Levels and Change: 10-Year Sexual Recidivism

I Very Low

II Below Avg

III Average

IVAAbove Avg

IVBWell Above Avg

Nominal Risk Level

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Time Free Adjustment

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Additional Resourcesavailable at www.static99.org

Time free in community Calculator Using yearly hazard rates automated 8.30.2019.xlsm

User’s Manual for the Lifetime and Residual Risk Calculator.

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Statistical Model

• Constant decline in risk over time

• Independent and incremental effect of nonsexual recidivism

• The reduction is constant across all initial risk levels (in logit metric)

• The hazard of reoffending after 20 years sexual offense free is negligible.

• For the purpose of our analyses, it was set to zero.

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Constant in logit unitsSo, what’s a logit?

If there are 10 recidivists out of 100 at risk

Probability (p): Nrecid/Ntotal 10/100 = .10

Odds: p/1‐p .10/.90 = .11111

Logit: Ln (p/(1 – p)) ln(.11111) = ‐2.1972

And to move from logits to probabilities:

p = elogit /(1 + elogit) = 1/(1 + (1/elogit))

Proportions Compared to Logits

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Negative logistic curve

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Region of Interest

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Equations for Declining Risk over Time

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Model 5

Logit annual hazard = ‐5.002 ‐ .130 (years offence free) + .329 (Static‐99R) + .459 (if treatment sample) + .920 (if High Risk/High Need sample) ‐ .705 (if other sample) ‐.081 (treatment x Static‐99R) ‐.137 (HRHN x Static‐99R) + .070 (other sample x Static‐99R)

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Model 5 with Routine Samples

Logit annual hazard = ‐5.002 ‐ .130 (years offence free) + .329 (Static‐99R) + .459 (if treatment sample) + .920 (if High Risk/High Need sample) ‐ .705 (if other sample) ‐.081 (treatment x Static‐99R) ‐.137 (HRHN x Static‐99R) + .070 (other sample x Static‐99R)

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Model 5 for Routine Samples

Logit annual hazard

= ‐5.002 ‐ .130 (years) + .329 (Static‐99R)

Only three things need to be known:

1) The annual hazard rate at time of release for the median Static‐99R score (‐5.002; a constant),

2) The number of years sexual offence free, and

3) The individual’s Static‐99R score.

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Decline in Risk Level Based on Initial Static‐99R Score and Years Sexual Offence Free in the Community

Years Sexual Offence Free in the Community

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

STA

TIC

-99R

Sco

res

-3 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I


-1 II II II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0 II II II II II II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 III III III II II II II II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

2 III III III III III III II II II II II I I I I I I I I I I I

3 III III III III III III III III II II II II II I I I I I I I I I

4 IVa IVa IVa III III III III III III III III II II II II II I I I I I I

5 IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa III III III III III III III II II II II II I I I I

6 IVb IVb IVb IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa III III III III III III III III II II II II II I

7 IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa III III III III III III III II II II II

8 IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa III III III III III III III III II

9 IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa III III III III III III

10 IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa III III III III

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What to do when the index offence is not a sexual offence?

• Non‐sexual recidivism increases sexual recidivism risk by 55%

• This is independent and incremental to time free effect

• Need to consider time free AND new non‐sexual offences

• A new non‐sexual offence is equivalent to – subtracting 3.3 years from time free, or

– Adding 1.5 Static‐99R points

Model for Nonsexual Recidivism

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Model 6 for Routine Samples

Logit annual hazard =

‐5.407 ‐ .135 (years) + .322 (Static‐99R)

+ .440 (any nonsexual recidivism)

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Example: Mr. Smith, after 5 years is convicted of Theft

• Static‐99R score of 4 (at sexual index – this does not change)

• Risk Level IVa at time of release.

• Now, spent 5 years sexual offence free in the community – Level III (if no new offending)

• Subtract 3.3 years based on new non‐sexual offence (5 – 3.3 = 1.7 years)

• Risk at 1.7 years – back to Level IVa

Decline in Risk Level Based on Initial Static‐99R Score and Years Sexual Offence Free in the Community


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

STA

TIC

-99R

Sco

res















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Exercise 1 • Mr. S. Fernandez

– Released 2014

– Static‐99R score at time of release of 4

– 6 years sexual offense free

– No nonsexual offending since release

a. What was his standardized risk level at time of release?

b. What is his current (2020) risk level?

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Exercise 2• Mr. J. Appelseed

– Released 2015

– Static‐99R score at time of release of 0


– Convicted for nonsexual offending

• Trespassing, Mischief

a. What was his risk level at time of release?

b. What is his current (2020) risk level?

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What if you need recidivism rates, not just risk level?

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Annual Hazards (Score of 2)

Years in the community

0.0000

0.0020

0.0040

0.0060

0.0080

0.0100

0.0120

0.0140

0.0160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Visualization of Declining Risks

• Biggest risks at the beginning

• The more traps you avoid, the easier it gets

The Random Hazards of Life (Static‐99R score of 8)

Early Recidivism (year 4)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

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Offence free at year 11


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20


Offence free at 20 years (nonrecidivist)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Yeah! Made it!

Estimated sexual recidivism rates (percentages) for follow‐up periods ranging from 6 to 20 years for routine/complete samples

based on observed 5‐year recidivism rates

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Given a Static‐99R score of 2, in routine/complete samplesthe estimated sexual recidivism rate is 5.6% at 5 years, 8.4% at

10 years, and 10.6% lifetime

Estimated sexual recidivism rates (percentages) for follow‐up periods of 5, and 11 to 20 years for high risk/high need samples

based on observed 10‐year recidivism rates

What is the lifetime rate for High Risk/High Need samples with a score of 4? Score of 8?

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High Risk/High NeedWhich Static‐99R scores have a lifetime rate of 35% or greater?

Projected residual risk (recidivism rates as percentages) from time of release up to 20 years offence‐free in the community for

routine/complete samples

Projected residual risk (recidivism rates as percentages) from time of release up to 20 years offence‐free in the community for

High Risk/High Need samples

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Example: High Risk/High Need, Static‐99R Score of 6 What is the residual risk after 3 years in the community?

After 11 years?

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What is the residual risk routine/completesamples by time of first nonsexual recidivism?

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What is the residual risk high risk/high need samples by time of first nonsexual recidivism?

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High Risk/High Need. New Criminal Conviction during the first year after release. What is the minimum score

for a lifetime risk of 35% or greater?

EXCEL Calculator (thanks to Jim Mundt)

• Input: – Numeric estimate of sexual recidivism risk at time of

release for any time period (e.g., 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years)

– Date at risk (date of release)

– Any nonsexual criminal convictions since release from index sexual offence (Yes/No)

– Dates not at risk during follow-up (e.g., reincarceration or hospitalization), if any

• Output: – Lifetime residual risk (numeric)

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Demonstration• Mr. S. Fernandez

– Released 2014 – February 1 (2014-02-01)

– Static-99R score at time of release of 4• 11.0% 5-year risk from table

– (6 years sexual offense free)


• Calculate current residual risk – percent (9.0%)

– Standardized risk level (III)

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Mr. FernandezStatic‐99R scores of 411.0% after 5 years

9.0

Estimated sexual recidivism rates (percentages) for follow-up periods ranging from 6 to 20 years for

routine/complete samples based on observed 5-year recidivism rates

Now you try it• Mr. S. Fernandez

– Released 2014 – February 1 (2014-02-01)

– Static-99R score at time of release of 4• 11.0% 5-year risk from table

– (6 years sexual offense free)


• Calculate current risk – percent

– risk level

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Calculate Current Residual Risk

• Mr. J. Appelseed– Released 2015 (2015-02-01)

– Static-99R score at time of release of 0• 2.8% 5-year risk from Table


– Convicted in February, 2020, for nonsexual offending

• Trespassing, Mischief

2.8% 5 years

3.9%

Estimated sexual recidivism rates (percentages) for follow-up periods ranging from 6 to 20 years for

routine/complete samples based on observed 5-year recidivism rates

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Recommendations for Combining Static-99R, STABLE-2007 and Time Free

• Less than 2 years– ignore time free, just Static-99R/STABLE-

2007 combination, using most recent STABLE.

• 5 or more years– Estimate Static-99R/STABLE-2007 risk levels

during the first 2 years at risk

– Apply time free adjustment to initial risk levels

2 years – 5 years in the communiyt

• Choice of either approach

1. Static-99R/STABLE-2007 only

2. Initial risk using Static-99R/STABLE-2007 with time free adjustments

Use of overrides• Expect overrides to decrease predictive

accuracy of actuarial assessment

• Actuarial assessment– Estimate initial risk based on behaviour during first

few years in the community

– Apply time free adjustments

– Do not include current STABLE-2007 for individuals who have been 5+ years sexual offense free in the community

• Override only if clear offence planning

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Example 3: Harry P.

• Convicted of internet luring of a 15 year old male in 2006, when he was age 36.

• In 2020, he has been offence free for 14 years, now aged 50.

• What is his current risk level?

Steps• Estimate risk at time of release using static risk tool (Static-

99R, Static-2002R, Risk Matrix – 2000/Sex)

• Assess dynamic risk factors in the few years after release Combine static and dynamic risk into an overall risk level at time of release

• Associated initial risk level with numeric estimate of sexual recidivism risk (Find corresponding Static-99R score)

• Apply time free adjustments starting at time of release Check for recent red flags that would justify an override of the actuarial estimate (e.g., current assessment on dynamic risk tool)

Example 3: Harry P.

• Static-99R in 2006: 3 (unrelated, male victim, never in intimate relationship) –Risk Level III (average)

• STABLE-2007 – in 2006 – 2008: 9 (deviant sexual interests,

negative emotionality, poor problem solving, never in relationship)

– In 2020: 5 (deviant sexual interests, never in relationship) No red flags.

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STABLE-2007 Scores

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

Sta

tic-

99R

Sco

res















Harry P. Example14 years offence free


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

STA

TIC

-99R

Sco

res















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Using Time Free Calculator• Static-99R/STABLE-2007 combined Risk

Level III

• 6.1% sexual recidivism rate after 3 years

• Released in 2006 (2006-02-01)

• No new nonsexual offenses

• Current residual risk percent (from calculator)?

• Current standardized risk level?

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Example 4: Draco M.

• Convicted of sexual assault against a 20 year old female in 2012, when he was age 24.

• 2020 convicted of bank fraud

• 8 years sexual offence free

• Initial risk level IV.b; 21.9% after 3 years

• What is his current risk?– Percent residual risk

– Standardized risk level

Example 5: Sirius B.

• 2000-02-01 Released from index offense

• Static-99R score of 9; 43.8 after 5 years

• 2005-12-25 Recommitted for Assault

• 2018-07-10 Released

Current residual risk?

Current standardized risk level?

Conclusions• Time free effects are robust and need to be

considered for individuals who have spent many years offense free in the community

• If primary interest is assigning a standardized risk level, use Hanson et al. (2018)

• If primary interest is estimating residual recidivism rates, use EXCEL calculator or tables from Thornton et al. (2019)

• Both approaches are independent of any specific risk tool used to estimate initial risk at time of release

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