Joe Biden is the rankingDemocrat on the SenateForeign Relations Committee.He was elected to the U.S.Senate in 1972 from Delaware.The Senator was considered afavorite in the race for the 2004Democratic Presidentialnomination, but Biden optedout of the election in order to maintain his influenceas a non-partisan foreign policy advisor to the WhiteHouse. In the past 32 years Senator Biden has playeda key role in shaping U.S. foreign and domesticpolicy.

Senator, you’ve been representing Delaware in theU.S. senate for 32 years, during which time you’vemade immense contributions to almost every area ofU.S. policy. Recently, you’ve started talking about anew concept in many of your speeches, “enlightenednationalism”. What exactly do you mean by“enlightened nationalism”?

What I mean by enlightened nationalism is that I thinkthat we have to define our national interests,internationally, in a broader way. It is not simplysufficient that we have the will and capacity to useforce. There is a new war of ideas now . . . I just gotback from Libya. There are 1.5 billion Muslims in theworld right now. They don’t understand our view ofthe world. They have been basically isolated. Theidea that we are going to enforce our view of theworld by force is a mistake, and it can’t work.

There’s basically two compelling schools of thoughtright now in American foreign policy. One is the Neo-Conservatives; these are serious guys who are verybright. They are patriots and they believe that we areat the apex of our power and that the best way toensure and guarantee American interests in the 21st

Century is to exercise that power - political, economic,military if need be - unfettered by internationalinstitutions. Mr. [Robert] Kagan . . . refers to Americaas Gulliver being tied down by the Lilliputians. TheLilliputians are the United Nation, NATO, the W orldBank, all of these organizations that require us toseek consensus. The Neo-Conservatives don’t seeany useful purpose for international diplomacy, orinternational institutions, period.

The other school of thought, the sort of pureinternationalists, believe that there is no nation thatshould take international action without internationalconsensus. They believe that the rules of the roadare very important to maintain some consistency inthe international world. Except [that] they areunwilling to enforce the rules when they’re broken.My view is that an “enlightened nationalism” usesthese institutions to our benefit.

However, you supported the Iraq war?

I believe that there was a legitimate and necessaryrationale to use force against Saddam Hussein. But Ithought it was very, very important that we had themajority of the major powers with us when we didthat for a simple reason: although we needed no helptaking down Saddam Hussein, we obviously weregoing to need significant help in rebuilding Iraq…And if you go in by yourself, unilaterally, then guesswhat? You inherit the prize; It’s yours unilaterally…Instead of trying to convince the rest of the world,using our diplomacy, to bring tightened sanctions

An Interview withSenator Joe Biden

Summer FellowshipOpportunities Pg. 12

During the talks, North Korea formallydeclared to all involved parties that itdid not possess—either presently orin the past—a Highly EnrichedUranium (HEU) program or anyenriched uranium from other sources.The statement refuted U.S. allegationsmade in October 2002 that North Koreahad admitted to the existence of anHEU program that violated the AgreedFramework that had been in placesince the Clinton Administration. Thealleged admission sparked thediplomatic crisis that led to the currentsix-party talks.

In response to North Korean denials,the U.S. claimed that—followingwidespread negative reactions fromthe rest of the world to the HEUannouncement—North Korea washaving second thoughts about itsadmission. The U.S. delegation did notpresent any concrete evidence tocounter the new North Korean claim.According to Mr. James Kelly, head ofthe U.S. delegation, evidence was notpresented because the North Koreanside did not request that the U.S.produce it.

In a statement to the media made inthe North Korean Embassy on the finalday of the talks that may signal thedevelopment of a second new tactic,

Round Two of Six-Party Talks Ends

By Fatima Ayub

After weeks of intense debate and negotiation – and withstrikingly little fanfare – Afghanistan’s loya jirga approvedthe country’s newly drafted constitution in early Januaryof this year. After almost three decades of conflict anddestruction, the documentrepresents a critical milestonefor the reconstruction of theAfghan nation. Yet even with anew framework for governanceand stability in place, thepractical implementation of theconstitution remains uncertain,at best.

The centerpiece of theconstitution, an empoweredcentral authority, represents aunited effort to undermine theproliferation of armed militiasthroughout Afghanistan.Specifically, Articles 60 through70 (of 160) provide for strongexecutive powers to curb the abuses of power of tribalwarlords who profited from the decentralized chaos of thepast twenty-five years. Most importantly, exclusive controlof the armed forces is vested in the executive office, to beheaded by a president directly elected by a 51% majorityfor a five-year term, with one chance for re-election.

The protection of human rights is strongly enshrined inthe new laws – a response to the bitter legacy of abusessuffered under monarchy, Soviet occupation, Taliban rule,and the ongoing military engagement since November 2001.In a reference to the United Nations’ Universal Declaration

of Human Rights, the preambleaffirms the “creation of a civilsociety free of oppression,atrocity, discrimination, andviolence.” The constitution’slongest chapter, the “TheFundamental Rights and Dutiesof Citizens,” asserts a widerange of basic freedoms,including the outlaw of tortureand arbitrary execution,protection of personal privacyand property rights, and theright to freedom of expressionand political participation.While Islam is given specialstatus as the state religion,other religions are not

discriminated against, and the constitution puts all ethnicgroups on equal footing.

The constitutional assembly also took major strides inovercoming the marginalization of Afghan women. (More

Implementation, Future Remains Uncertain

TheObserver

March 23, 2004 The Newspaper of The Johns Hopkins University Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Volume 2 No. 5

Continued on page 5

In ThisIssue

Marquez onPhilosophy

Pg. 2

.

By Boo-Seung Chang

The second round of six-party talkson the North Korean nuclear problemended on February 29 without any clearprogress beyond a written agreementto set up a working group and to holdanother round of talks before July.

The U.S., China, Russia, Japan, SouthKorea and North Korea were involvedin the four days of negotiations.

Despite the lack of a majorbreakthrough, W ang Yi—Chinese ViceForeign Minister and Chairman of thisround of talks—claimed repeatedlythat major advancements wereachieved. “The second round of six-party talks successfully boosted thediscussion on substantive issues,”W ang said.

The Japanese media reaction, however,was lukewarm, expressing frustrationwith the lack of substantial progresson the issue of abduction, consideredcentral to Japanese interests.Observers noted, however, that Japanhad little room to negotiate because ofJapan’s prior announcement that theywould not consider extending aid toNorth Korea until nuclear, missile andabduction issues are completelyresolved.

In contrast, South Korea adopted aproactive strategy. Duringnegotiations, they expressedwillingness to provide fuel oil to theNorth if North Korea first agreed tofreeze its nuclear program as the first

step under the U.S.-proposedComplete, Verifiable and IrreversibleDismantlement (CVID) process.

The proposal reportedly elicited apositive response from China andRussia, though the U.S. positionremains unclear. Some commentatorson the talks reported a U.S. refusal to

accept the proposal; however, Chinesespokesman Liu Jianchao, who alsoparticipated in the talks as a memberof the Chinese delegation, stated thathe had not heard any remarks by theU.S. to that effect.

New clarity on the North Koreannegotiating strategy did emerge on twokey points, however. Continued on page 8

Afghanistan’s Loya Jirga Ratifies Constitution

Ahmad Masood

/ Reuters

Former president of Afghanistan and chairman of theloya jirga, Sibghatullah Mujaddedi, right, speaks withfemale delegates at a meeting in Kabul in January.

Continued on page 11

North Korean Vice Foreign Minister KimKye Gwan, stands near two portraits ofNorth Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, right andhis late father, Kim Il Sung, left before apress conference held at the North Koreanembassy in Beijing, China, Saturday,February 28, 2004.

Segregationin DC?

Pg. 7

AP

By Levi Tillemann-Dick

W alking a Fine Line

During his recent speech at SAIS, Zbigniew Brezhinksicommented that, during the Cold W ar, the strengthand efficacy of the U.S. foreign policy derived fromits pragmatic centrism. In his wide-ranging comments,Brezhinski spoke of where geopolitics will likely leadus in the next quarter-century. On a cautionary note,he warned against the pursuit of an overly aggressiveforeign policy. America’s choice, he told us, isbetween world domination and world leadership.

Brezhinksi’s words ring true. However, heoversimplifies the role of the U.S.. As my Hungariangrandfather would have said, Brezhinski is “too cleverby half”. The vibrancy of our economy, the resilienceof our culture and the might of our military will ensureU.S. hegemony for at least another quarter-century.However, it is a mutual decision that will determinewhether the U.S. is to be regarded as a leader or abully. What some perceive to be leadership, otherscondemn as domination. True leadership only occurswhen the followers are willing. If the U.S. chooses totruly lead, it must consider its role to be contractual.That is, it must exhibit competent Diplomacy, maintainits historical sense of purpose and show restraintwhen it exercises its might in exchange for theinternational approval of its right to lead.

In this issue: Joe Biden speaks of his ideal vision ofthis covenant of leadership; Rose Dakin writes aboutsome of the global environmental issues the U.S.could begin addressing in order to restore the faithof some of its former allies; and Jerry Thompsonilluminates the key security measures the U.S. shouldimplement to bolster its leadership credentials.

Leadership is hard. No matter what the United Statesdoes, there will always be those that resent its actionsin the international community. However, throughcircumspection and vision the U.S. can successfullylead, not dominate, in the decades to come.

As editors-in-chief, we expect a degree of criticism,and welcome letters to the editors. W e also encourageall SAIS students to submit any article or opinion ina spirit of intellectual honesty and professionalism.The Observer staff will continue to strive to maintainthe paper as an organ for balanced coverage ofcommunity, country, and world.

Levi Tillemann-DickEditor-in-Chief

LETTER FROM THE EDITORS

The SAIS Observer is an international affairs news monthly written, edited, and produced bythe students of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of TheJohns Hopkins University.

SAIS students, faculty and members of the administration at the W ashington, D.C. campus,Bologna campus, and the Hopkins-Nanjing Center are encouraged to submit articles, lettersto the editor, photographs, cartoons and other items for consideration.

Material for consideration or inquireis may be submitted to : Saisobserver@hotmail.com.

The SAIS Observer is an approved SAIS student organization. Opinions expressed in the SAISObserver are not necessarily the views of the editors, SAIS, or the University. Republicationof matter herein without written consent of the Editor-in-Chief is forbidden.

The SAIS ObserverEditors-in-Chief

Levi Tillemann-DickJoe Erlich

Managing Editor

Matt PetersenSenior Editors

Isabelle LindenmayerJason DeRosaKeith Doxtater

EditorsCaryn NesmithCatherine Polisi

Barry ReganFeatures Editor

Mary KisselCopy EditorsSteve Miller

Jerry GrossmanArt DirectorGrant Rissler

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS LOCAL OBSERVER Page 2

“So, do you think we should deploytroops..? What is the EU going to do?Shall we offer them logistical supportor what? Are the Frenchmen losingit..?”

The students in the Nitze Cafeteriaoverhearing this phone conversationlook at each other and then at theowner of the voice, Alex Tiersky. Someshake their head. Others know that heis talking as the President of the UnitedStates, the year is 2008 and a lot ishappening in the world that hisadministration has to worry about.And this is just the run-up period.

2008 is an election year, and Tiersky’sopposition candidate is everything heis not. “My fellow Americans. I’m aChristian man.” John Juech, a hardcore conservative republican starts hisevery speech in this way. He is so goodin the role that the Control groupmakes hisc a m p a i g nmanager ditchhim and becomethe presssecretary of theWhite House –after the formerone died of astress attack.Again, someseem troubled.How on Earth canJohn talk like thatwhen every oneknows he is themost devotedDemocrat of the school? W ell, that’swhy the game is called CrisisSimulation.

A senior European diplomat drags meinto a dark side room one evening. “We

never met and I didn’t tell you this.But the press should know that theAmericans never responded to ouroffer to evacuate their embassy inBujumbura, so the staff never got out.

They were just lucky that our troopsstabilized the situation…”

Jesus, people are really getting intotheir roles, I think as I go into thecomputer lab to post the story on the

web. There is a big rebellion in Burundi.Tens of thousands of people are fleeingover to Tanzania, but the Tanzanianarmy then closes the borders. The EUsends its Rapid Reaction Forces in andgets the situation under control.

After signing of the Rome Treatybetween Israel and Palestine,congressional hearings, inauguration,presidential debate and big terroristattacks in France the crisis weekendkicks off. W e take the Rome buildingover and settle in our rooms on thefirst floor – the US administration, theControl group, the International groupand the Press. A 15 minute newsbroadcast reveals the newesthappenings: Iran and Iraq are havingsome border problems, China is furiousabout Japan receiving the Taiwanesepresident and the Europeans are p…off at the Americans for not doingenough to support them after thehorrible terrorist attack at the Stade deFrance in Paris where some 1,400people died.

Press meetings, secret meetings,administration meetings, SecurityCouncil meetings, NATO meetings, EUmeetings, Control group meetings,meetings of meetings. Love meetings?Tensions rise and fall and the storiesrange from Iraqi-Palestinianagreements on a yearly sword danceand shisha-smoking competition toIranian underground nuclear bombtesting. NATO bombs terrorist campsin Paraguay, but it’s a failure becausesomebody leaked the information andthe terrorists got away. Brazil andChina form an alliance, France demandsthe extradition of the alleged Stade deFrance attackers. Is the US going toinvade Iran? It puts Patriot Missilesalong the border – what is the UNthinking? The Secretary General is

By Thora Arnorsdottir

By Joe Erlich

What do you do in your free time?I do several things. One of them is toplay drums. I’m not quite a drummer,but I practice drums for about an houra day. And I try to read about anything.I try to read about philosophy andreligion, mostly about the historicalJesus, which is very relevant for what is going on now. Ialso try to juggle taking my daughters from one place toanother. And, if there is some time left, I try to prepare forclass.

Are you religious?No, I’m not a religious guy but I was. I was pretty close toindoctrinated. I went to Jesuit school from kindergartento 12th grade and then went to Catholic University. So Ihave an understanding of Christianity, and thatunderstanding was not the one that I liked. I beganreading authors like Elaine Pagels (The Gnostic Gospels)or John Crossan (Who Killed Jesus?) and it was an eye-opener. I have a very different type of attitude towardreligion than I did before. Before, it was mostly dogmatic– do it or perish. My new view is a little more along thelines, I think, of what was originally intended: There is noone above you; we are all created equal; if you are sogood, then please go ahead and cast the first stone. Thatkind of religion is the one that I like. If you read JamesCarroll’s book on the meaning of the cross, it’s justastounding the extent to which the original views ofChristianity have been distorted throughout the last 2000years.

What’s one book every student should read?

The first one that comes to mind is Siddhartha byHerman Hesse. But if you’ve already read it, then Isuggest Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman! by RichardFeynman. Feynman was a physicist and he had a way ofattracting attention to himself. He wrote a book abouthis life; it’s a very successful book and it’s written forus. It’s not about physics; it’s about the life of anindividual as it goes from birth to death…It is extremelywell-written and I really recommend it. After readingFeynman’s book, you cannot see the world the sameway because you change as you read it. I felt the change.I said, “My God, after I finish this book I will be different.In what way? I don’t know. W ill I be better? I don’t know.But I will be different.”

What is your favorite and least-favorite aspect of SAISstudents?The aspect that I like the most is their hunger forknowledge, their hunger to “know it now.” My leastfavorite aspect is that they graduate and leave.

W ould you make any changes to the SAIS curriculum?Yeah…I think the core of it is ideal. I’d probably put alittle more – and only as an elective – philosophy. I thinkthat right now philosophy is something you learn bydoing and that’s fine. But I think you can also learnphilosophy by studying it. Right now there arecompeting views at SAIS. By competing views, I meancompeting philosophies. Should we be quantitative?Should we not be quantitative? Should we be relyingmore on history? Should we rely more on the moment? Ithink the trouble is that these are just differing views;they are competing for attention and the studentssometimes don’t see it that way. They view it ascompeting versions of truth and don’t know which oneto hear. I think that’s the problem. If you approach aparticular view of the world as a view of the world, thenthe tension between what you think and this view

Continued on page 4

Continued on page 5

When SAISers Rule the W orld…

In Their Own W ordsAn Interview with Prof. Marquez

Top - Members of the Tiersky Administration listen to a high-levelbriefing. Above - President Tiersky has a word with his Chairman ofthe Joint Chiefs.

Staff W ritersMichael Lotze

Heather WhiteheadJulie D. HackettMatt MaloneyRose DakinFatima Ayub

Boo-Seung ChangThorna Arnorsdottir

John VossVeena Lertpachin

Pantellis SolomonMichalis PersianisKatherine ShaferJeremy Thompson

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS LOCAL OBSERVER Page 3

Freerider’s Corner:NewsweekHigh profile events of international interest that are worth going to in their own right.Food rating: CREAM OF THE CROP. Recommendations: satay (for SE Asians - this is theauthentic deal), beef is good but pick from the middle because the side selections tend tobe too rare. Stuffed mushrooms are awesome. You are totally set for dinner with thiswinner. They use top-end, high-class caterers. And you have to love the open bar!

SE Asia StudiesChantala should get an award for being the guru of SEA cuisine. If I know there is an eventthat week, I skip a meal in order to prep myself for the free grub. This is not “wanna be” PadThai, we are talking down-home local style, true-to-the-taste-bud SE Asia cuisine. GoodCha Gio, Satay, noodle dishes, and curry. They have real food beyond the usual lamescope of finger food as well as plates and cutlery. How can you top that? This is obviouslya very well endowed department offering culinary quality, consistency, and, best of all,frequency.

EESTLuncheons are really interesting and I do actually go to listen to the topic discussions.But honestly, the food is worth it even if you could care less about global warming. Thestar is their luncheon series on health (especially the ones with visiting physicians fromtop research institutes). Exquisite hors d’ouvres, not your usual chip and dip or roastbeef sandwiches (yech, how many more of those can I eat!). Instead of boring cold cuts(à la SAIS cafeteria) you get fancy meat options on foccacia with ethnic spices. What Imost look forward to is the desserts: cream puffs with fresh cream, chocolate moussesquares, and fresh strawberries. Caution: there is only one dessert plate, so get it whileyou can on the first pass.

European Studies Obviously these people are still living in the renaissance period; they desperately need toincrease their catering budget. I have sampled stale Tostitos and salsa, not to mentionbread that is so hard you could knock someone out with it. If you can get past that, thecheese selection is ok but not for the lactose intolerant. The hot food selection remindsme of several dinners combined in a big pot–my only question is where is the spaghetti?Sources report that they have experienced gastroenterological challenges after grazing onwhat resembled a pâté . Stay away. If all else fails, go for a liquid lunch (solid wineselection).

China Studies Keep your eyes wide open for the once a semester “Holiday Party” because that is all thefood you will get. Presuming, that is, that you consider Chef’s Express food. Note: thisdoes not apply to Nanjing Hopkins Center parties- their endowment is sufficient enoughto cater a Chinese banquet style dinner; the trick is getting yourself on the invite list.Security is tight, and enforced with nametags. Sadly, this is as good as it gets for thisdepartment. In case you are still not convinced, try going to the China Forum eventswhere big-time players snack on nuts, soda and doritos without fail.

South Asia StudiesGood samosas, and they always have good alcohol. W eare talking hard liquor here, there is no Bud lite available forthe moderates.

Strategic StudiesMonogrammed napkins, elaborate buffet settings, thequestion is: how can I get in when I think WMD means“Where’s My Dinner” (writer was forced to produceidentification and was subject to a full body search andinterview before allowed entry). For the lucky Strat Studs,catered events are always good opportunity to practicehaute cuisine etiquette for those top Brussels tables (a.k.a. Europe staff ride). Reservationsare suggested and men should wear jacket and tie or, even better, full dress blues.

Japan Studies-Definitely not Nobu, or even Sushi Taro, but enough generic Japanese sushi and sashimiin large quantities. The problem is it is easier to infiltrate Fort Knox than a department withonly three students.

W estern HemisphereCoffee and cookies? Probably Tuesday’s leftovers. So that’s how they manage to sendpeople to Brazil and Mexico every summer. But with summer stipends reduced evenfurther, next thing you know, you can expect lifesavers and leaded DC tap water.

I-Dev In order to get department students accustomed to the purchasing power of their measlysalaries after SAIS, Dean Harrington recently rejected a proposal to offer pizza and beer atthe recruiting talks for the potential new Department Director.

Tuesday Coffee and Cookies W riter regrets that her class runs past 4 pm, because the only edible sweets are the onesstrategically placed at the center of each plate. Those are gone in two seconds (my staffhas timed it). Obviously, this event is catered by the SAIS dining service. Beware of low-quality, curdling creamers.

Economics For those of you who are really desperate, you can take Multinational Corporate Finance(a.k.a. Bodnar Fest 2). Professor Bodnar offers food and coffee for a marathon 5-hourdouble-session—who says there’s no such thing as a free lunch? W e will report in thenext issue whether this is an NPV = 0 project.

PLAN B: SAIS OBSERVER MEETINGSYou can offer to write low quality editorials on nonsense topics and partake in the *FREE*high-end pizza and beer (at least 6 international varieties).

By Heather Whitehead

Since the September 2001 founding of the InternationalDevelopment program (or I-Dev as it’s called around here),it has become the largest single department at SAIS. I-Dev,an extension of the Social Change & Development (SC&D)program, has grown from 57 students to 103 students injust three years with another 28 I-Dev students in Bologna.After leading this mammoth new program for just one year,Grace Goodell stepped aside as director and ever since, ithas been led by the tireless interim director Professor BillDouglas. Unfortunately until the program finds a permanentdirector, it will lack the credibility a tenured academic boardprofessor would provide.

Even before the academic board set up a search committeelast spring, I-Dev students asserted themselves in thesearch process. An I-Dev director student search committee,founded during the first semester of the program’s existence,assembled a memo to the deans recommending thequalifications it believed necessary for the position. Amongthe suggestions were academic distinction in one of thesocial sciences; demonstrated excellence in teaching,research, publications, and public policy involvement; andextensive programmatic experience in developing countries,with a wide array of micro- to macro-level developmentagencies.

The students sent this memo to all of the deans, and metwith Deans Einhorn and Fukuyama during the summer of2002. Driven by a desire for a defined vision that a tenureddirector would provide, the I-Dev students maintainedconstant communication with the deans. As Jennifer Pope,an original member of the student committee explains, “it isimportant to have the right person to lead the departmentthrough its transition from the small SC&D program to themore diverse I-Dev program. W e need to establish SAIS’sniche within the world of grad school programs in

international development and build on the reputation thatSC&D already has.”

The academic board’s search committee was finallyorganized last spring, with Professor Riordan Roett as itshead. Other members of the committee include professorsBarrett, Bodnar, Doran, Fukuyama, Khilnani, and Macours.This year, the I-Dev student committee has met with DeanEinhorn, Professor Roett, and Dean Harrington to see howit might contribute to the search. It had been suggestedthat a student be part of the official search committee towitness all of the proceedings and possibly have a vote, aswas the case during the SAIS dean search in 2001-02. Thisproposal was rejected.

Last September, the school posted an advertisement forthe position, without the students’ prior knowledge. Itsought applicants with strong credentials in “developmenteconomics, the microeconomics of development, politicaleconomy, comparative politics, or comparative publicadministration/public policy,” adding that, “programleadership or other administrative leadership is desirable.”The ad produced 77 applicants, soon whittled down to sixcandidates: four economists, a political scientist, and asociologist.

In the end, the search committee decided that candidatepresentations and Q&A sessions were the best mechanismsfor student participation in the process. Since most membersof the official search committee do not attend the Q&Asessions, and thereby miss out on student reactions to thecandidates, the students decided to send a memo to everycommittee member after each candidate’s interview day.

Many students have strong opinions on the next directorand worry that their voices are not being heard. The mostpronounced fear seems to be that the committee will appointan economist lacking understanding of grassroots level

development—an area of great interest to a large percentageof the students. They view an economist as offering ateaching skill set duplicative of SAIS’s already strongInternational Economics program and worry that such aperson may not understand how to implement I-Dev’scurrent mission of offering a comprehensive approach tothe economic, social, political, and environmental aspectsof development.

As another member of the student committee, MelissaDraper, argues, “connections with the world of the practicalapplications of development are needed for mutual respectto develop between the director and the often quiteexperienced I-Dev students.” On top of these studentdemands, Professor Roett stressed the importance of thenew director’s personal interactions with the searchcommittee since SAIS has such a small faculty and academicboard.

The process is finally approaching its end, and the lastcandidate’s interview is scheduled for March 25th. ProfessorRoett hopes that the search committee’s recommendation(s)will be ready for presentation to the academic board at theirApril 1st meeting. A vote would follow at their May meeting;students will not be informed about the specificrecommendations until after the conclusion of the process.

The international development field is incredibly diverse.A program that trains I-Dev students needs to encompassa broad range of interests and course offerings in order toprovide each student a satisfying and comprehensiveeducation from which they can draw during theirprofessional careers. Many are waiting with bated breathfor the search’s results, to see who will lead their programinto its as yet undetermined future.

Heather Whitehead is a first-year student in InternationalDevelopment and Russian & Eurasian Studies.

A Gourmand’s Guide to Catered Events at SAIS

I-Dev Program In Midst of Leadership Search

Will China revalue its currency within the year?

Is Sharon’s proposal to withdraw unilaterally from the W est Bank and Gaza and erect asecurity wall justified?

Should the US issue some debt to help Iraq field a team in the NFL?

The PRC has hinted at concerns of an overheatingeconomy and inflation. Since these are the possible and[before now] unseen consequences of the 7-12% growththey have consistently had, then it is likely that theremay be some sort of revaluation this year.

Sharon is no peach—but he’s tired, just like the rest ofthe Israelis, of suicide bombers. I think he foresees astatus quo in regards to Palestinian leadership (corruptand disinterested in peace—primarily concerned withwealth and power) and has decided to take unilateralmeasures. Is he justified? I don’t know—history willsay. However, he has a responsibility to his constitu-ents. Arafat has failed his. The PA is as much to blamefor the radicalization and absolute victimization of thePalestinian people as is the Israeli Government.

This is such an “American-Centric” question! Beforecoming to America I had never heard of the NFL…andwhen I learned that it was American Football, I ignored itcompletely. Therefore, I will give this student’s “Non-American Student Centric” answer: Yes. Why not? Itmakes about as much sense as what is going on in Iraqnow anyway. The team colors could be Red zone, andGreen zone.

Indian and Chinesefood so dishes rangefrom roti to beef chowfun. The curries tendto be a little heavierand less spicy thenmost Indian curriesand the noodles tendto be heartier withricher sauces than onefinds in Chinese-style noodles. The menu is prettyextensive so it is probably best to experiment with agroup of 4-5 and order 4-6 dishes (If you like spicierfood, be sure to ask for extra spicy, even if the dish isalready labeled as such). I recommend Nyonya chicken,Hokkien Mee (thick noodle dish) and Belachan KangKong (Chinese greens). For twenty dollars a head youwill probably emerge stuffed to the gills, but, if you arestill hungry, you can go next door to Camelot for coffeeand dessert.

Malaysia Kopitiam $$1827 M St. NWW ashington, DC20036

Mama Ayesha’s

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS LOCAL OBSERVER Page 4

Mama Ayesha’s $$Like WMD, Mama Ayesha’s ispretty hard to find unless youreally, really look for it. Therestaurant (which is proven toexist) is in a residentialneighborhood just before theCalvert bridge if you are walkingfrom Adams Morgan to W oodleyPark; think of it as the last reststop before entering gentritopia.Mama Ayesha is no longer withus but her legacy to the world isgreat falafel, Baba Ghanouj andstuffed grape leaves. Appetizersgo for about $4 but the portionsare generally small, which istypical of Middle Eastern cuisine. The stuffedspecialties of the house are Ayesha’s real comparativeadvantage. A huge plate of grape leaves stuffed withrice and lamb is my personal favorite ($9.95). Stuffedeggplant, cabbage, and squash are also available, anyof which can be made vegetarian style with flavorsthat are different but equally delectable. The Mamaalso charcoal grills and kabobs any sort of flesh(sword fish is recommend) for $10 to $13 . Open until10:30pm during the week and 11:30pm on theweekends, Ayesha’s is a good place for a late dinnerdate with a vegetarian (hey, we’ve all been there).

Mama Ayesha’s1967 Calvert St, NWW ashington, DC 2009(202) 232-5431

Malaysia Kopitiam $$Just a stone’s throw fromSAIS, MK serves the mostauthentic Malaysian food one is likely to find in theDC area. Malaysian cuisine is influenced heavily by

Questions3Washington, DC Nanjing/Hawaii

Washington, DC Nanjing/Hawaii

The Frugal GluttonThe Frugal GluttonThe Frugal GluttonThe Frugal GluttonThe Frugal GluttonBy Joe Erlich

FeaturedDestinations

(202) 232-54311967 Calvert St, NW

Metro stop:Red line W oodley Park, cross over the Calvertbridge towards Adams Morgan, first building on

the left.

Joe Erlich is a first year M.A. student concentrating in Southeast Asia regional studies.

Photos courtesy of Joe Erlich

China will eventually revalue the RMB by a few percent-age points to alleviate political pressure, although notenough to substantially affect its export sectors, whichit sees as the main engine for job creation, and thereforesocial stability. This will have no effect on the US tradedeficit, as trade is simply diverted from China to otherlabor-intensive economies.

Positive steps such as the withdrawal are essential forboth sides to take, but only in the context of a negoti-ated and coordinated effort to establish lasting peace.Using it to justify an entrenchment somewhere else iscounterproductive

Given the US deficit I think it may be better to simplyhold an auction of Janet Jackson’s “bra” on ebay. Somerich overseas Iraqi will buy it anyway. What comes aroundgoes around.

(202) 833-6232

Pines of Rome $The Pines is the Jet Blueof restaurants (you go toeat, not to dine). Thespace feels prettySpartan–just two large,dark rooms with the

occasional touristy Italian poster hanging on a wall.As the owner, Marco, will tell you, “It’s not much, butat least it’s not Bari.” (Marco is originally from Bari,Italy and does not pine for it). In any event, the Pinesserves great sauce-on-top, thin crust Pizzas for $6 or$7. I also recommend the white pizza with Fontinacheese. Delicious appetizers include a mountain oflightly fried zucchini or calamari, neither of which isvery greasy, and fagioli beans with garlic. Entrees arefine–typical American-style Italian comfort food–butnothing special. The house dessert is a rum cake thatjust might be perfection; it is really worth trying evenif you don’t have a sweet tooth. The Pines is theplace to go for a pie and a dessert with a buddy ordate; even without an entrée, you will leave full andhaving spent only about $12 between you. It’s a littlefar from SAIS but the food is worth the metro ride.

Pines of Rome4709 Hampton LnBethesda, MD 20814(301) 657-8775

Metrostop: Bethesda, red line

Venue

trying to pass a resolution. People can be heard shoutingin the rooms – is a third W orld W ar looming over us?

One thing the players in the Crisis Simulation learn is thatthere is no solution to the crisis. Everything is not supposedto fall nicely in place like a little puzzle at the end of theweekend. In the last few minutes of the game, the playerscan be seen trying hectically to reach an agreement withintheir group.

When the game is declared over on Sunday night, a fewthings come into light. There was a Chinese spy in the USadministration, for example. That’s why China was alwaysa step ahead. “You’re fired!” the President shouts. TheControl Group member that organized the Burundi storysays there was genocide just about to start when theEuropean nations got to an agreement. They can be proudof that, “but it sure wasn’t easy” says the President of theEuropean Union. “I feel sorry for the person that will takethis job on in real life…it’s one big frustration.”

Eating, drinking and being merry is exactly what peopleneed after three weeks of Crisis Simulation. And judgingfrom the conversations, it is far from over. “Well, the USadministration was being very provocative, so we had torespond to that….” “…China was threatening to veto it inthe Security Council, so we had to find a way…” I’mreminded that it’s time to think about studying again whenformer Secretary of the Treasury has to leave to study forhis monetary exam that is to take place on a Monday morningin March 2004. W elcome back to the real world.

Thora Arnorsdottir is a second-year M.A. studentconcentrating in International Development.

Continued from Page 2

Crisis Simulation

2 Campuses

In the last installment of this column, I reported on theincreasing number of livestock diseases such as mad cowand bird flu that affect our food supply. I also noted that theUnited States Department of Agriculture (USDA) restrictionon the importation of foreign food products, under the guiseof “public safety,” is really a veiled effort to fight the Bushadministration’s trade wars. In just one short month, theUSDA has struck again.

Late in February, the USDA temporarily banned theimportation of processed meat and poultry from France.Restricted products include certain meats and foie gras –duck and goose liver – of which over 100 tons were shippedto the United States last year. The ban was predicated upon the faulty logic that Frenchproducers must operate under the same regulatory regime as their American counterparts,precluding the use of traditional farming methods.

While the USDA maintains the ban was put in place for the safety of the American public, itlooks more like a retaliatory measure. The European Union recently limited the importation ofU.S. eggs and poultry after astrain of bird flu wasrecently discovered inTexas. There has also beenextensive conflictbetween the United Statesand the E.U. o v e rgenetically modifiedfoods. E.U. i m p o r t srestrictions on GM foodsresulted in the imposition of a 100 percent tariff on foie gras in 1999. In a period of intensedebate about the future of our food supply, traditional production methods continue to loseout.

The method of producing foie gras is itself under attack for being excessively cruel. Foie gras,or “fatty liver” is produced by force-feeding corn or other grains to ducks and geese througha tube that is inserted into their throat. The liver, overwhelmed by the large amounts of foodit must process, swells to five times its normal size. The taste, however, has been longappreciated by chefs and food lovers for its rich flavor and smooth texture. It is often formedinto pâté and is wonderful seared and served over greens with a cognac reduction. It iscertainly not your grandmother’s chopped liver.

W ith imports from France now restricted, chefs have turned to American producers, of whichthere are only two: Sonoma Foie Gras and Hudson Valley Foie Gras. These small operationsare located in the two regions of the country that have done the most to reestablish artisanfood production. In Northern California and the Hudson River Valley you can find hand-crafted cheese, transcendent vegetables and amazing wines. Unfortunately, you can also findfood terrorists.

Groups such as the Animal Protection and Rescue League have targeted these two producersthrough various methods including the establishment of a website, gourmetcruelty.com, whichpurports to document the practices of the two firms. Others have taken the cause to furtherextremes such as trespassing, vandalism and threatening the families of the management.Some environmental activists have compared the production of foie gras to the Holocaust.

The movement against the production of foie gras has even prompted state legislators to act.In both California and New York bills have been introduced that ban the production of foiegras. While duck liver is something I may eat once a year, if at all, the idea of making it illegalstrikes me as absurd. In a country that has a failing education system and 40 million peoplewithout health insurance, why are legislators spending time working for the rights of ducks?If we want to focus on the failings of our food supply, factory farms and chicken packingplants might be a better place to start.

Hopefully all of this talk of food safety hasn’t made you lose your appetite. I think a recipe fora fresh salad (forget about the e.coli outbreaks) would be a nice peace offering to the veganwarriors. Top it with foie gras at your own peril!

A Simple Salad

mixed greens (rampons, arugala, belgian endive, radiccio, spinach)a handful of toasted pine nutsfeta, broken into small cubescherry or grape tomatoesred onion

for dressing:

olive oilred wine vinegarlemon juicetabasco

Mix dressing ingredients in bottom of salad bowl. Add pinch of salt, pepper and dried herbs,if desired. Add greens to dressing and mix until coated. After salad has rested for a fewminutes, toss in other ingredients and serve.

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS LOCAL OBSERVER Page 5

Nitze’s Nosh Special Feature:

by Croque Monsieur

“In a country that has a failing educationsystem and 40 million people without healthinsurance, why are legislators spending timeworking for the rights of ducks? If we want to

focus on the failings of our food supply,factory farms and chicken packing plants

might be a better place to start.”

Trade W ars and Environmental Terrorists:Foie Gras under attack

diminishes. It’s a view, so you entertain it as such. It is not truth…I think SAISdelivers what it promises. It doesn’t promise you a PhD; it promises you acouple of notches above undergraduate and, in my mind, it delivers that.

What’s the best part of your job at the Fed?That I have been given the freedom to find the answers. That’s the best part.When there is a question, there is genuine interest in what the answer is and Igo and pursue the answer. The answer is what the answer is. You take a collectionof methods, and a collection of theories or knowledge. They will take you in aparticular direction and that will give an answer and that answer becomes theanswer. You have to defend it, you have to be persuasive, you have to makesure that it is understood why competing answers are not relevant. But themost important thing to me is to be given time and the resources to go and findwhat the answer is.

What’s the best moment you’ve ever had in a classroom?The best moment? You mean just one?!! I’ll tell you what, to me the best themoment is the first class. Because the first class, I mean the first lecture ofwhatever course, is almost as if you were crashing a party and your ride says,“I’m leaving.” You stay behind and you don’t know anybody. Everybody elseknows each other, but here you are and now you are somehow the center ofattention and it is this moment when you say to yourself, “I have to connectwith these individuals because I have no choice. I have to connect with thembecause that’s what I’m here for.” The energy that one gets in the first class –the feeling that I have a story to tell them and I want to connect with thesepeople – I would pay to get that. That SAIS pays me is a big thing, but I wouldpay to get that first lecture every time (laughing). It’s almost like a first kiss, just“wooahh, This is tremendous!”

Apart from the first lecture, the best part is when I am lecturing and I get toughquestions and I don’t know the answer. I could just be honest and say I don’tknow the answer. But then there is this residual annoyance that says, “Ok, soyou don’t know the answer. So what? Can we not think right now? Could wenot just think for a moment what could the answer be, or at least what might theanswer not be? Let’s just remove some things from the answer set and maybewhat’s left over becomes the answer.” I love doing that in class, when you startthinking right there and then. When a student just blows me up with a question,I enjoy that a lot.

What inspired you to become an economist?Trial and error. Mostly error. I began in medicine and it took a little while beforeI realized it was not for me. After that I had the temerity of moving to engineering.Engineering is alright, but it was not it. And so economics became like “wellalright, fine, let’s just do it.” It was not a passion from birth. It was not like I hadthis urge when I was 15 to figure out what exactly a demand schedule looks like,none of that. And I was just not that good of a student in high school. I wasmediocre… at best. For years, I was mostly into racing motorcycles. When youare on a motorcycle, very little else counts. It’s an incredible feeling, and Iwanted it all the time. So I was just a bad student, truly bad.

What was for lunch today? A yogurt and two apples.

A Conversation with Prof. MarquezContinued from Page 2

and get consensus to use force againstSaddam, we went in unilaterallywithout a serious effort to getconsensus and support and look whathappened: 90 percent of the soldiersthere are Americans, 95 percent of themoney, 95 percent of the deaths andwe are going to be there for 3-5 moreyears.

What would you have done if you werein Bush’s circumstance?

I would have forced the French andthe Germans to support us. I wouldhave moved them into a corner. Saddamposed no immediate threat to theUnited States. None. He did not haveweapons of mass destruction thatcould have been used against theUnited States. He did not havereconstituted nuclear weapons . . . andI said it at the time that he did not havethem. What I would have done is Iwould have played the French game. Iwould have said, “You want sixmonths? Fine. [But] sign now that in 6months if he does not comply, thenyou will go to war.” And we could havegotten the majority of the SecurityCouncil to sign on to that. That way ifSaddam didn’t come clean we wouldn’thave been the only game in town. Hewould have, in the next 5 years, beenable to get a tactical nuclear weapon .

. . just one tactical nuke would changethe whole picture in the Middle East.

Many humanitarian groups havecondemned sanctions as an ineffectivetool that merely harm the people inthese societies who are already mostoppressed. First, do you thinksanctions are effective? And second,did they play a role in disarmingQaddafi?

I’ll answer the last question first. Yes.W e totally isolated Qaddafi. There’s acase where sanctions were universal.Sanctions applied unilaterally don’thave much consequence. . . [But] hewas put in a box where he had no wayout. I think the sanctions worked inLibya because they were universal.

Do you think the Iraq war had an effecton Qaddafi’s decision to come clean?

Qaddafi made a deal with the Englishthree months before we attacked Iraq .. . A billionaire from Canada came tome in 1993 and said that Qaddafiwanted to make a deal. Unfortunately,Clinton did not have the credibility onnational defense to make a deal.

Now I think Qaddafi’s willingness tomake a deal was the consequence of

An Interview with Senator BidenContinued from Page 1

Continued on page 6

Hello my pets. W e don’t have quantity this month, but we’ll make up forit in quality. Let’s backtrack to the Stoplight Party. Now that was a rousingsuccess—the fiber-optic lights at the bar weren’t the only thing glowing.The story of the night was the red leather pants—sometimes seen in thevertical position, but more often seen sliding along the stage. In this case,red certainly seemed to signal go—Imelda agrees that leather pants in ahot auditorium fully qualify as easy access. The dating game was alsoquite amusing—weapons of mass destruction have never been such astimulating topic of discussion.

The talent show was another SAIS spectacular, although the men of I-Dev were sorely missed. Imelda hopes to see the SAIS cheerleaders makean encore presentation during the admissions open house in April—ifthat doesn’t drive home the culture of SAIS, we don’t know what does.Even better than the talent show was the next morning, when we spottedone of our peeps doing the full-on walk of shame—pearls and all!Apparently some talents were better viewed off the stage.

Moving right along to the Crisis Simulation, the big story seems to be thelack of any story. That’s what happens without members of the fairer sex,my friends! The participants must have forgotten the lesson they surelylearned in sixth grade—playing spin-the-bottle without girls is not somuch fun. At least we’re sure that this crisis was devoid of any prematuredischarge of WMDs.

There were two highly amusing parties recently—one hosted by SAIS’favorite female siblings. WhileImelda left prior to the fire and thearrival of men in rubber suits, shedid get to watch a seeminglyinnocent birthday bash turn intoa foam party. The 70s disco bashproved a worthy secondary stopon this same night. Highlightsincluded the crocodile hunter indrag and a very drunk partygoerhappily flashing everyone, eventhough no one was offering herMardi Gras beads in return. Thecrashers with pizza were alsoamusing. Upon being told thatthere was no girl named “Seven”at the party, they appearedconfused as they saw the 7’s onevery other female’s jeans.However, they were forciblyremoved by the formidablehostess. Imelda is relieved toknow that bouncing is still areliable career option. While wewouldn’t know it since we politelyleft at a decent hour, there werethe de rigueur international jetsetters who refused to leave as dawn rapidlyapproached. Imelda thinks it tacky to insult the DJ and then refuse toleave, but perhaps we are being culturally insensitive.

W ell, my pets, Imelda must go find out how to get SAIS to pay for her tripto the beach, since she appears to be the only student not going on a full-funded spring break. Perhaps W estern Hemisphere will fund her studieson “The Cultural Revolution in Cancun: Before and After Senor Frog’s.”

Love, Imelda and Apprentice Imelda

Dear Imelda,I am a first year student and I have not met my soul-mate yet. Is there anyhope for me?

Love, Let’s Have Speed Dating In Kenney

Dear LHSDIK,No.

Love, Imelda

Dear Imelda,Come on! There has to be someone!

Love, Stop Toying W ith My Head

Dear STWMY,W ell, we have heard of a first year couple in Chinese studies that seemsmore interested in all things French, but other than that, the first yearsdon’t hold a candle to the 8 2/3 couples that exist amongst the secondyears. So please refer to answer #1.

Love, Imelda

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS LOCAL OBSERVER Page 6

Ask Imelda

All was not well within the Oval Office.Senior administration officials stated, oncondition of anonymity, that the curvedwalls had the unfortunate effect of remind-ing them of wives and girlfriends left some-where outside the confines of the politicalpressurecooker

1645 Connecticut Ave.W ashington, DC

various realities. Qaddafi had a dual purpose, herealized, what is he going to do with WMD’sonce he gets them anyway? He’s not going touse them. He’d be annihilated. W ith nation-states, deterrence works. You have a returnaddress on the bomb. What neo-cons are rightabout is that with individuals, with Bin Ladens,deterrence doesn’t work.

Secondly, he was in a position where he wasalso ostracized from the Arab world and this ishis way of sticking his finger in their eye. Whileall of them are trying to unite against us, he’scutting a deal. He loves it. I got a call fromMubarak on Monday, at my home. He said “Joe,why are you listening to this man? He is aBedouin. You know how sly the Bedouins are.”He’s really riled because Qaddafi is getting all ofthe attention. He said, “Why are you not comingto Cairo? No one comes to Cairo anymore. You’regoing to Libya!”

Can you tell me about the major events on yourtrip to Libya?

W ell, I only did a couple things. The main onewas talk with Qaddafi for two hours. When weall came out to talk to the press, all of mycolleagues were ecstatic saying that Qaddafi isa new man, that he’s changed. So what are you

going to do? I was in front of all of the press, Ididn’t want to criticize my colleagues, so I usedthe name of that new show. I said to them “curbyour enthusiasm.” This guy hasn’t changed abit. Not one solitary single bit. He’s still a dictator,he still has no respect for human rights, he stillthinks that we’re a problem. But he’s a realist. Herealizes that his nuclear weapons aren’t going todo anything for him, number one. That numbertwo, he has all this oil in the ground, but he can’tget it out. Number three, he has 70% of hispopulation under 30 and they’re getting restless.The only way he can give them anything is to getthat oil pumped, and we’re going to pump it forhim. He let us disarm him. He let us cart all of hisweapons off to Oakridge Tennessee in 747s,literally.

You know what he said when I said to him, “whydid you stop supporting terror?” He’s a verypragmatic guy. He said, “I’ve supported the PLO,I supported the IRA, I supported the Sandinistas,I supported the African National Congress, Isupported Hamas, and they all cut their owndeals. Why am I the only one doing this now?”

On a different topic, you recently gave theopening statement at the Congressional Hearingon Anti-Semitism in Europe. How would yousuggest European leaders combat anti-Semitism?

Interview with Senator BidenContinued from Page 1

Continued on page 8

At SAIS, conferences or round table discussions oncurrent world affairs and their effects on the globalcommunity arenever hard to find.But ironically,domestic U.S.issues – many ofwhich haveprofound effects onSAIS students’personal lives – arerarely addressed. Asa recent heatedstudent emailexchange onsegregation shows, the SAIS community mightbenefit from outside perspectives on local issues.

Recently, a fellow student of Austrian nationality wasasked to write an article on student observations ofW ashington D.C. for the SAIS Observer. As a citythat is characterized by its demographics of a majorityAfrican-American population, W ashington D.C. isseen in the eyes of many of our foreign classmatesas a surprisingly segregated metropolis. Therefore,it was not surprising that one of his questions bluntlyasked, “Why do all the African-Americans live apartfrom the whites?”

The question sparked a debate that revealed the trulysensitive nature of this subject, especially from theAmerican point of view. For instance, one fellowAmerican student described the inquiry as “saturatedwith ignorance,” while another added, “to treat racialissues in the U.S. as a ‘cultural’ difference fromEurope is to ignore the reality of the experiences ofimmigrants in European countries today.” As thedebate continued, it became clear that those mostoffended by the question were Americans; namely,

Aiming For a Bigger Win in November, Kerry is attempting to takeon President Bush in the area many experts consider the President’sstrong suit: foreign policy.

Foreign Policy to Play Key Role in the Fall Election

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS NATIONAL OBSERVER Page 7

By Barry P. Regan

W as Super Tuesday always this dull? John Kerry sewedup the Democratic nomination on March 2, with nine sound,if rather unexciting, victories over John Edwards. The focus,already shifting for weeks, now centers on the Bush—Kerryshowdown in November. And to the great satisfaction ofthe SAIS community, foreign policy will likely play a biggerrole in this election than in any since at least 1980—andpossibly since 1968. How the Democrats are able to definethemselves on national security may well determine theelection.

Just before the Iowa caucus, when Howard Dean seemedthe likely Democratic nominee, the cover story of the NewYork Times Magazine asked, with a certain degree of doom,“Can Any Democrat W in on National Security?” Justifiablyor not, the Democratic party has rated consistently lowerthan the Republicans on defense issues—a legacy of the1960s when the left wing of the party, disillusioned overVietnam and concerned about the use of American power,moved away from the bipartisan containment policy,suspicious of both the goals and means of American foreignpolicymaking. Not since JFK’s 1960 missile gap chargeshas the public viewed the Democrats as the leader ondefense. As a result, whether dealing with Nixon’s policyof détente through strength, Reagan’s Cold W ar escalation,or the current Neoconservative movement under GeorgeW . Bush, the Democrats have tended to react to, ratherthan initiate, the dialogue over the last thirty years—according to the stereotype, anyway. A Howard Deancandidacy would have faced great difficulty shedding suchan image.

John Kerry, on the other hand, is a highly-decorated Vietnamveteran and four-term Senator, extensively educated andextremely articulate on foreign policy issues. His militaryrecord, highlighted by a Silver Star and three Purple Hearts,far outclasses that of any senior Bush administrationmember, save Colin Powell. The administration and its allies

have already tried to pin the old stereotypes on Kerry, citinghis outspoken antiwar views in the early 1970s. But suchcharges seem unlikely to stick—and, if continued, will onlyseem more desperate as the summer rolls on.

At a recent major speech in Los Angeles, Kerry teed off onthe Bush foreign policy, criticizing it as both reckless andshortsighted in fighting the war on terrorism.

“George Bush has no comprehensive strategy for victoryin the war on terror,” Kerry said, “only an ad hoc strategyto keep our enemies at bay. If I am commander in chief, Iwould wage that war by putting in place a strategy to winit.” He outlined a broad plan that combined both toughtalk on expanding our efforts with pleas for internationalcooperation. Kerry, it seems, will make every effort to leadthe discourse on foreign policy.

But will Kerry’s election strategy work? It seems clear thatthe Bush administration, even with the myriad problems inIraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, even with the numerousmistakes that inevitably emerge from an aggressive foreignpolicy, would prefer a fight over foreign rather than domesticpolicy. September 11, need it be said, will be a huge part oftheir campaign—and how could it be otherwise? No eventhas caused such shockwaves in our time and, presidentialpolitics aside, it will remain a central backdrop to our foreignpolicy, regardless of the party in office. The Bush team willmake every effort to highlight 9/11—and if Osama bin Ladenis captured or killed before the election, it will be very hardfor Kerry to win. That, as much as anything, may be at theroot of the spring offensive planned along the Afghani-Pakistan border.

Iraq, terrorism, U.S.-European relations, China, Russia—these issues will dominate the foreign policy debate.Others—most ominously Iran and Pakistan—may dominatethe next administration. It remains too early to gauge theimplications of international affairs during the campaignand the winds of international politics can shift in an instant.In any case, we should consider ourselves fortunate to beat SAIS during such a vital election on foreign policy. Letus hope that cynicism, as it so often does, will not win theday.

Barry P. Regan is a first-year M.A. student concentratingin Strategic Studies.

By Matt Maloney

This week the Financial Times,Baron’s and CNBC’s “Kudlow andKramer” all featured segments thathighlighted the deleterious effects ofAmerica’s current budget deficit andasset bubble on global financialmarkets. The bears, the journalistsreported, believe that investors shouldrun for their lives.

The bears’ macroeconomic outlook isscary at best, apocalyptic at worst.America’s budget deficit, $374 billionin 2003 or 3.5% of GDP, will balloon toapproximately $521 billion in 2004 orover 4% of GDP. Thus far, foreignershave been more than willing to financethose deficits by scooping up U.S.treasury bills and bonds. But how longwill they continue to do so and at whatprice?

The U.S. economy now borrows $1.5billion a day from foreign investors,said Sung W on Sohn, chief economistof W ells Fargo & Co., and that levelcould reach $3 billion a day in the nearfuture. However, China, by far thelargest purchaser of U.S. governmentdebt, reduced purchases of U.S.government bonds by $30 billion lastmonth and used that money insteadto shore-up their illiquid state-ownedbanks. If that trend continues, thebears argue, the Federal Reserve mighthave to raise interest rates prematurely.In other words, interest rates mightincrease by as much as 200 basispoints before the economy has had achance to fully recover from slow GDPgrowth (3.1% annualized in February)

Report on the American Economy:Should Investors go into Hibernation?

The Other Side of M Street:Segregation in D.C

and slow job growth (an anemic 21,000new jobs in February).

Baby-boomers should be worryingabout how they will be forced toforego payments from the soon-to-beinsolvent Social Security andMedicare programs, whose shortfallsnow total over $20 trillion and will lastthrough 2011. Gerald Jordan, principalof Hellman Jordan Management,argued that aging Americans shouldbe saving heavily instead ofconsuming on credit. The bears’ keyquestion: ‘What happens when thebig sell-off happens in the bondmarket, once investor sentiment turnsand debt holders realize America isoverly leveraged?’

Morgan Stanley’s chief economistStephen S. Roach summed up thistrend nicely at last months W orldEconomic Forum in Davos, Switzerlandby claiming, “The engine of the globaleconomy, the U.S., is running not ongas but on fumes, on little more thantax cuts and borrowing.”Some bearish investment advice:

Peter Thiehl, of Clarium CapitalManagement, believes that the stockmarket is due for a major correction.On Friday March 3, the Dow closed at10,595, the Nasdaq at 2,047 and theS&P at 1,156. All three indices are atthe high end of their “recovery” bandsand reflect the large number ofovervalued stocks trading athistorically high P/E ratios relative totheir benchmarks.

The bears believe that if investorhaven’t done so already they should

start to trim underperforming stocksfrom their portfolios and should be outof equities altogether in the next sixmonths. If investors aren’t willing togo to cash, then Steve Leuthold ofCore Investment Funds arguesinvestors should limit their equityexposure to robust sectors such ashealthcare, especially biotech andgeneric pharmaceutical companies.

Real-estate and REITs representanother laggard investment vehicle.Low interest rates and the recentrefinancing boom have artificiallyinflated consumer demand. Hence,home prices and commercial propertyprices will begin to fall off in the next 6months, bears like Leuthold contend.Both he and Thiehl have dumpedREITs altogether and their commentssuggest savvy investors might gaingreater returns by renting or leasingproperty over the next 12 to 24 monthsand then buying it back on a dime.

Analysts at major Chicago tradinghouses believe gas prices could climbas high as $3 per gallon over thesummer. Even conservative estimatesput the number at $2.25 per gallon formuch of the country, with Californiasuppliers demanding a price premiumof about 25%. Jennison NaturalResources Fund’s Leigh Goehringbelieves that that oil could rise to wellover $40 per barrel over the next fourmonths, particularly if additional OPECnations continue to cut production by1 million barrels per day. While higheroil prices would help keep America’s

By Julie D. Hackett

photos compliments of Gerold Vollmer

Continued on page 8 Continued on page 8

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS OBSERVER Page 8

those who may not have been affected by this issuepersonally.

Given the insular nature of many W ashingtonneighborhoods, the American students’ responseswere unsurprising. Many D.C. residents in the NWarea rarely venture past their protectedneighborhoods, giving them a skewed perception ofD.C. However, a quick glance at the local nightly newspresents a different and ignored reality:WashingtonD.C. often ranks in the top 10 for highest per capitamurder rates in the U.S–an ironic twist for the capitalcity of the most powerful nation in the world.

Indeed, judging from the breadth of our foreignentanglements, one might think that the domesticsituation was status quo. However with crime levelsswelling, educational test scores failing and povertyremaining a constant factor in our society, thisportrayal could not be further from the truth.

Moreover, the comparison of W ashington D.C.’ssegregation to the immigrants’ problems of Europe ishistorically inaccurate. The transport of Africans toAmerican soil was not one of choice, nor could it beconsidered forced immigration. It was simply andundeniably a system of chattel slavery in whichAfricans were uprooted from their homeland andbrought forcibly to this country. The end of legalsegregation was relatively recent, considering thefact that African-Americans have been an integralpart of American society since the 17th century.However, four decades later, W ashington remainssegregated, both racially and economically. Ignoringthis reality only perpetuates the crime and povertylevels that define the lives of so many residents thatremain outside the NW bubble.

But back to our Austrian classmate – surprisingly,the student at the heart of the recent debate resideson 5th and Morgan St., a neighborhood whose portionof M St. is markedly different than the M St. thatruns through the well-kept Georgetownneighborhoods. In one short year, this student’sexperiences and interaction with his neighbors inW ashington D.C. will likely expose him to a morediverse racial experience than many American citizenswill ever experience during a lifetime in the UnitedStates. So, in response to my classmate’s boldinquiry, I commend him for asking the question thattoo many Americans would rather ignore.

Julie Hackett is a second-year M.A. studentconcentrating in Latin America Studies.

inflation keel upright, it would also generate downwardconsumption pressures on consumer durables andconstruction sectors. To hedge, Thiehl recommends

ExxonMobil as the most profitable petroleum business ona current dollar basis. Suncor, the oil tar sands petroleum

North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Guan saidNorth Korea reserved the right to maintain and developnuclear programs for peaceful purposes. Until thisstatement, North Korea had not distinguished betweenpeaceful and non-peaceful nuclear programs.

The usefulness of such a distinction remains unclear.Despite North Korean claims that their Yongbyon facility

provides electricity for surrounding villages, observersagree that there are no major private-purpose nuclearprograms in North Korea.

Some experts believe the new military/non-militarydistinction is part of a larger North Korean strategy to breakthe agenda for negotiations into numerous smaller pieces.On each agenda item, North Korea could then maximize itsdemands.

The strategy could also create a wedge between thenegotiating positions of China and Russia and those of theUnited States. It is considered highly unlikely that Chinaand Russia would deny North Korea the right to buildnuclear power plants for the purpose of electricitygeneration.

Despite the lack of clear outcomes, the biggest winneremerging from the second round of talks appears to beChina. Since the US-China-ROK talks last April, China hasplayed a pivotal role in maintaining the momentum of themultilateral framework through proactive shuttle diplomacy:Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’sCongress W u Bangguo, number two in the Chinese politicalhierarchy, visited North Korea last October; Executive ViceForeign Minister Dai Bingguo, former Chief of ForeignRelations of the Chinese Communist Party, went to Japanin November; and Vice Foreign Minister W ang Yi, Chairmanof this round of six-party talks, visited North Korea lastDecember.

If things go as agreed upon in the Chairman’s statement,there will be another round of six-party talks before July. Inthe third round of talks, parties are expected to focus onthe definition and range of the CVID and on how tocoordinate steps by North Korea and the U.S.

Given the lack of meaningful progress on these two issuesrecently, the discussion on substantive matters still has along way to go.

Boo-Seung Chang is a second-year M.A. studentconcentrating in China Studies & Japan Studies.

Continued from Page 7

Segregation in W ashington

photos compliments of Gerold Vollmer

Six-Party Talks Fall Flat

Continued from Page 7

Bearish Investment Advice: The End Is Near

Continued from Page 1

firm, looks equally appealing as extraction costs fall from$13 per barrel to $9.

Lastly, while almost all analysts agree that the dollar willcontinue to slide, perhaps by as much as 25% againstcurrencies like the Yen and Euro, it is the bears who believethat slide will lead to deflation rather than inflation. Yes,some commodity prices are rising (e.g. oil, copper, steeland lumber). However, six components of the January CPIfell – personal computers, used cars and trucks, telephoneservices, clothes and shoes, household furnishings andnew vehicles. If the bears are right and the combination offalling labor costs and slowing wage growth createsdownward pricing pressure on more components of theCPI, then investors should purchase 10-year treasuries at3.83% and take cover.

Matt Maloney is a first-year M.A. student concentratingin Latin American Studies and Emerging Markets.

Honesty. There is a famous justice of the Supreme Court,Oliver W endell Holmes. He said, “the best disinfectant issunlight.” You cannot allow acts of terror and or anti-Semitism to go uncriticized because then they take on a lifeof their own. That’s why I publicly criticize Chirac and Ipublicly criticized Schroeder. There still is serious anti-Semitism in Europe, just below the surface. W e have a moralobligation in the United States of America to call ourEuropean quote unquote friends, on it, and demand thatthey respond. “Never again” can easily happen again. Whenpeople are fearful they look for scapegoats, and now thereare two things going on in Europe: Xenophobia and anti-Semitism. They have to be met head-on.

I was in charge of the first round of NATO expansion. WhenI was in Poland I was invited to make a very importantspeech at W arsaw University. A thousand people werethere–every Polish intellectual. A person stood up andasked, “Senator, is there anything that could stop Poland’saccession into NATO, and I said, “Yes, one thing,” Helooked up at me like he didn’t expect an answer, and I said,“your anti-Semitism. The comments of Lech W alesa… Thecomments of the Bishop of W arsaw. That can block youradmission, and if it is does not cease and desist, I will blockyour admission.” It needed to be said. It grows like a cancer.

You are nuanced in many of your policy stances, however,your views are fairly black and white in areas of drugpolicy. Recently, many European countries have decided tostart legalizing certain drugs to gain greater control overthe phenomenon of drug use. What do you think aboutthese efforts?

These countries have a right to do that, but I stronglydisagree. Just like we have a right to have capitalpunishment, though I’m not a big fan of capital punishment.I’m against it. It does not affect or diminish crime unlessyou just give it away, because there will always be a blackmarket for it unless you just give it away.

The argument goes that you legalize it, which brings downthe prices and reduces drug crime . . . It actually has theopposite impact.

In England, in Amsterdam, they’ve legalized drugs andprices have fallen, crime has gone down. Really marijuanaisn’t that different from alcohol, and it’s probably lessdangerous. What would your comment be on that?

Look, you didn’t have Jesus clinking mirrors at the lastsupper. Alcohol is a cultural thing that has been aroundfor a long time, and I don’t think we should let this wholeother genie out of the bottle with legalizing drugs. Let’smove on to a different topic.

OK. Why did you not run for president this year?

Look, I’ve run for president once before. I thought youcould be the kind of father, the kind of son, the kind ofhusband you wanted to be while you’re running forpresident, but you just can’t . . . I put together a steeringcommittee, we had $15 million, we had favorable support ofthe media, and we had endorsements. But if I wanted to runfor president, I had to parachute in there among those 9candidates, and sprint. If I even stumbled, it was over. NowI still have one more chance to be president, and if JohnKerry doesn’t win, then I will run in 2008. I wasn’t willing torisk my one shot this time.

Last month, in an interview with the Observer, Jim W oolseymade the comment that rogue states like North Korea andIran shouldn’t be able to hold the U.S. hostage with ballisticmissiles. What’s your take on that?

W ould missile defense have stopped 9/11? . . . [North Korea]knows, and any nation on earth knows, that they will beobliterated if they fire a nuclear missile at us. They say thatthese folks are irrational, but name me a leader who used aweapon against an enemy knowing that it meantannihilation. W oolsey can’t name me a single instance.

What is your strategy in the long term for North Korea?

Our strategy should have been, like Senator Dick Lugarand I said, to talk. Because the Neo-Conservatives knowthat the only deal that can work for the North Koreans, togive up their nuclear weapons programs and missileprograms, is to cut a non-aggression deal. For them, that’slike me the Catholic denying the Holy Trinity. Part of theirnotion is that you must use force to get things done.

An Interview with Senator BidenContinued from Page 6

W ang Yi, China’s Deputy Foreign Minister and chief negotiator.

By Pantelis Solomon and Michalis Persianis

As Cyprus prepares to enter the EuropeanUnion, Greek and Turkish communities arebracing themselves for their island’sreunification. Cyprus President TassosPapadopoulos and Turkish Cypriot leaderRauf Denktash met in New York on Feb. 19,under the auspices of UN Secretary GeneralKofi Annan, to discuss a plan that wasformulated by Mr. Annan in November 2002to create a federal state.

The two leaders have until Mar. 22 to expresstheir grievances with the Annan plan andreach an agreement on a final draft. If thisproves unfeasible, the United Nations will callupon the two “motherland countries,” Greeceand Turkey, to pressure the two sides tofacilitate an agreement. Mr. Annan will playthe role of deus ex machina in the event ofanother stalemate, patching up any remainingdifferences. The final draft will be put forwardto the two communities via referendum onApr. 20.

As the two communities brace to join eachother, the viability of the proposed federationhinges on fostering the Cypriot nationalidentity. Since Cyprus became anindependent state in 1960, giving birth to theCypriot nationality, this identity has beenimpaired by the two communities’ ethnicassociations. Cypriots speak differentlanguages, and celebrate the separate holidaysand heroes that originated from theirrespective motherlands. The national centersin Athens and Ankara nurtured these separateidentities, stunting the development of aunified Cypriot national identity. Turkey’sinvasion of Cyprus in 1974 gave rise to twoconstituent parts, one dominated by GreekCypriots, and the other by Turkish Cypriotsand settlers from Turkey. The creation of these

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER Page 9

Haiti: The Curse Of HistoryBy Katherine Shafer

Anarchy reigned for many years beforePresident Jean-Bertrand Aristide,facing a bloody revolt andinternational pressure, departed Haitiin the early morning hours of February29. W ith the fullextent of thechaos exposed tothe world, theinternationalcommunity hasscrambled to finda solution toHaiti’s politicalstalemate. TheUnited States,while denyingaccusations thatit forciblyremoved Aristide,is focused onestablishing order through diplomaticefforts and the deployment of over1,600 marines. Whatever the detailssurrounding Aristide’s departure, anopportunity now exists to reshape theabysmal political landscape in Haiti, acountry that has experienced 33 coupsd’état in its 200-year history.

Diplomats and Haitian leaders mustdeal with the formidable task ofsalvaging Haiti’s young, fragiledemocracy. Under a CaribbeanCommunity (Caricom) Plan, a seven-member council of “wise men” hastapped former Haitian foreign ministerand UN official Gerard Latortue asprime minister to establish agovernment of national unity andarrange for elections. On paper, theplan is attractive; its implementation,however, will require nothing short ofa miracle.

Many forces conspire to prevent Haitifrom following the Caricom plan tofruition. Haiti’s parliament has beenparalyzed since the 2002 elections,which the opposition deemedfraudulent. A confusing assemblage offactions who briefly coalesced to oustAristide pose a dangerous,destabilizing threat. They remaindivided since his departure: a mix ofarmed thugs, former Haitian armyleaders, businessmen and variouspoliticians. Guy Philippe, leader of thearmed rebels, is rumored to have beeninvolved in political assassinationsand drug trafficking. Many ofPhilippe’s men are former members ofFRAPH (Revolutionary Front forHaitian Advancement and Progress),which occupied a bloody role duringthe military dictatorship of 1991-1994,prior to Aristide’s reinstatement aspresident.

An international presence is critical toprotect the people of Haiti and forge apolitical solution to the chaos.Unfortunately, the historical record ofAmerican political will and domesticsupport for this sort of involvementhas not been impressive. The 1994 U.S.democracy-building effort in Haitiprovides a good example. Despite theright ingredients—training ofpolicemen and judges, electoraloversight,infrastructureimprovements, and the essentialstabilizing presence of the UNforces—the process ended too soonto produce substantial results.

Haiti is accustomed to suchabandonment. The world’s first black

republic was not recognized by theUnited States for 60 years. U.S. marinesoccupied Haiti from 1915-1934, a periodtainted by racism and forced labor.Since that time, the United States hasshaken hands with Haitian despotseven as they dragged the country

through corruption and repression tothe position of poorest in thehemisphere and third hungriest in theworld. The economy remains amongthe most closed in the world; violenceis a daily fact of life; and the unstableenvironment continues to attract drugtraffickers and international criminals.

In 1986, the United States put Haitiandictator François “Baby Doc” Duvalieron a plane headed for the south ofFrance, along with hundreds of millionsof dollars from the Haitian treasury.After hastily organized elections,Aristide took office and was soondeposed, leading the United States toremove the military junta and re-installHaiti’s first democratically electedpresident. The U.S. is skilled at suchhigh-publicity operations. It’s thelong-term grunt work for whichAmericans seem to have little patience.

Salvaging a democracy requires morethan a few thousand marines andregional goodwill. The United Statesis learning in Iraq the difficulty ofcreating a system in which people feelthey have a stake, introducingdemocracy into a culture that does nothave the civic fabric to support it, andtrying to fashion “rule of law” whenpeople only desire stability.

Nation building is not glamorous,cheap or quick. It does not often makegood headlines. It also may not appearto be welcomed or appreciated by thetarget population. The reality of life inthis Caribbean nation is that peoplewant food on the table and care littleabout the political system thatprovides it. Chaos tends to slide moreeasily into the arms of a strongmanthan it does into a functioningdemocracy.

The United States must not be seducedby the promise of stability from acorrupt suitor. Aristide’s departure,while questionable in its legality,provides an opportunity for aconcerted commitment to Haiti. If aninternational presence enables a newdemocratic government to make thestreets safer and put foreign aid togood use, it would be a historicaccomplishment.

Katherine Shafer is a second-yearM.A. concentrating in StrategicStudies. She is on the Board ofdirectors of Hands Together, an NGOthat operates exclusively in Haiti.

Continued on page 11

AP Photo/Daniel

Morel

Tires burn on the street in Gonaives, Haiti.

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Nation-Building in Cyprus:The Issue of Cypriot Identity

two ethnically homogenous parts served tofurther widen the gap.

The Annan Plan provides for constitutionalmechanisms to dictate how the new federalstate shall function. It will not, however, erasethe long-standing antagonism between thetwo communities. The binding force musttherefore be the fledgling Cypriot identity.

This identity has been gaining vigor since the2002 decision to admit Cyprus into theEuropean Union. Although Cyprus owes itsforthcoming entry to the European Unionpartly to the enlightened foreign policy ofGreece, Cypriots realize their country entersthe European Union as a sovereign nationwith its own rights and duties. This realizationserves to distinguish the civic Cypriot identityfrom its ethnic components, and applies toboth communities in Cyprus.

Greek Cypriots have been celebrating theiraccession to the privileged EU club sinceDecember 2002. But they don’t enter theEuropean Union “alone”: Turkish Cypriots,despite their physical separation from the non-occupied areas, remain citizens of the republic.They understand that in the case ofreunification of the island, they will enjoy thesame benefits as their Greek compatriots. Thisis why they massively demonstrated in Nicosiaagainst their leadership, demanding “Avrupave Baris,” Europe and Peace.

Cypriots are now embracing a more completecivic identity, which is best articulated on thecivil society front. Breaking away from theethnic-specific paradigm, an explosiveemergence of organizations encompassingboth ethnic groups has led to constructivedialogue taking place at the grassroots level.This is perhaps the best proof that a common

“Dealing with the threat of terrorism from thepremise that holds that those who threaten us areirrational allows us to act preemptively and

reactively. However, this premise does not allow usto act creatively at a time when creativity is what we

most need.”

By Jeremy Thompson

On February 11, 2004 President George W . Bush delivered amajor policy speech outlining new measures to counter thethreat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation.Recent revelations about large-scale sales of nuclear equipmentand knowledge from Pakistan to Iran and Libya certainly makeclear the need for greater United States engagement on thisissue. But even with the President’s new proposals, the Bushadministration is doing too little to counter the grave threat ofWMD proliferation.

In his remarks on February 11, Bush proposed halting the saleof nuclear enrichment and processing equipment to states thatdo not already possess it. Furthermore, he aspires to strengthenthe ability of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)to conduct invasive inspections. The result of such initiativeswould be to strengthen the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT),the cornerstone agreement that has helped to limit the numberof states “going nuclear” over the last 35 years. PresidentBush’s suggestions are perfectly sound, but they are so limitedin scope that, at best, they will curtail only a fraction of theproliferation threats that loom ominously.

The greatest national security threat to the United Statesremains the nexus of terrorism and weapons of massdestruction. And the most likely source of WMD for terroristsis Russia. W ith nearly 17,000 nuclear warheads and countlesstons of chemical weapons sitting in often insecure storagesites, coupled with thousands of underpaid and disgruntledweapons scientists, Russia remains the W al-Mart of weaponsproliferation. The United States has a program in place—Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR)—intended to work withthe Russians to reduce their massive nuclear and chemicalweapons stockpile. Over the last 12 years, CTR has helped todeactivate 6,000 nuclear warheads and employ 22,000 formerWMD scientists in peaceful endeavors. Yet, despite the wake-up call of September 11th and his often stated commitment tostrengthening U.S. national security, the President actuallyproposes a $50 million cut in Department of Defenseexpenditures for this important program in fiscal year 2005. Asis, CTR accounts for only about $450 million of the annualPentagon budget, which equates to about 1/10 of one percentof total defense spending.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has requested $10.7 billionfor missile defense—a system that remains unproven and, inany event, offers no protection against a terrorist attack usingWMD. Since terrorism is by far the most likely means by whichthe U.S. would be attacked using WMD, and Russia, by virtueof the sheer size and insecurity of its arsenal, seems to be themost likely source of such a weapon, it appears that thePresident’s focus on missile defense, coming at the expense ofCTR, is dangerously misguided and provides precious littleimprovement in national security for such a large investment.

Also concerning is the Bush administration’s plan to developlow-yield and bunker buster nuclear weapons. This effortreceived only grudging approval from Congress last fall,despite the Republican majority, because of the highlydebatable benefits of such weapons. Ideally, these small nuclearweapons could devastate highly-localized areas while limitingradiation and the impact zone in such a way as to preventcivilian casualties. In actuality, there is no way to know theimpact of such a bomb until it is tested. And testing anddeveloping nuclear weapons, at the very same time when theU.S. is trying to lead an international effort to contain nuclearproliferation, is counterproductive. As is, the internationalcommunity, sharing America’s concern about W M Dproliferation, is frustrated by the unwillingness of the Bushadministration to support the ratification by the Senate of theComprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This treaty, whichthe U.S. signed in 1996 but has not ratified, would add anadditional layer of security into existing non-proliferationregimes by forbidding signatories from developing morenuclear weapons. But President Bush’s unwillingness tosupport the ratification of this treaty, greatly exacerbated byhis desire to develop yet more nuclear weapons, makes amockery of U.S. efforts to counter proliferation abroad.

As a result, as long as the President supports U.S. efforts todevelop more nuclear weapons, he should expect onlygrudging and half-hearted support from the internationalcommunity on the strengthening of the Non-ProliferationTreaty that he recommended. Reducing the threat of weaponsproliferation is too important to stake our hopes on a “do as Isay, not as I do” attitude in the White House.

Jeremy Thompson is a second-year M.A. student concentratingin American Foreign Policy.

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS EDITORIAL OBSERVER Page 10

Too Little…Too Late? Us vs. Them Is A Road to NowhereBy Mike Lotze

Two years into the “war on terror” we are still mired in ablack and white, us vs. them, good vs. evil, clash ofcivilizations discourse that is moving our actualunderstanding nowhere. Case in point is the article“Buried Under Their Own Hate”, published in the lastedition of The SAIS Observer. Through reference toIranian policies and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict thearticle claims to offer a window into the Arab/”Islamist”mindset.

According to the article there is a trend of people inArab/“Islamist countries” of hating the W est and Israelmore than they value life. In the case of Iran it contendsthat this devaluation of life is linked to an absence of“Western concepts of political legitimacy”. It concludesthat we must realize that the Arab/”Islamist” enemy weface is “wholly irrational,” “hate filled,” “self-destructive,” and loves death more than life.

One of the manyproblems with thisarticle is that itpresupposes failurein U.S./Westernpolicy towards theArab world. Ifpeople in the Middle East are completely irrational, benton death, illogical, and hate-filled then we have to acceptthat any interaction with them will eventually end inimpasse. Such logic makes us slaves to irrationalenemies whose moves we can’t predict, and to whichwe can only react.

If we accept the argument that in Arab/”Islamist”countries there is a culture of irrationality or cult ofdeath that doesn’t understand W estern ideas of politicallegitimacy, the logical conclusion of such an argumentis that democracy and freedom will never be brought tothe Arab world by local initiatives. Homegrown reformmovements and grassroots pushes for change in thesesocieties have no place in this type of analysis.Therefore, we must either install leaders favorable tothe W est and Israel who can repress the naturalinclinations of the irrational Arab masses, or imposedemocracy and order from outside. This is the type ofanalysis that is currently shaping US foreign policy.

In both the U.S. and Israel this mindset can be partiallyattributed to the unfortunate tendency to conflateterrorism with Arab society and politics. As a result, inthe W est we tend to treat the diverse Arab world and all“terrorist” groups as unified blocks. The societies andcultures of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Egypt, Libya,Yemen, etc. are all painted with one brush. Discussionof motives for terror has become limited to debate about

religious extremism and militant fundamentalist Islam.The use of terror by a number of organizations in theMiddle East and our perception that terrorism is widelysupported by the Arab street has stopped us fromallowing for nuance and individual social/politicalagendas within the many diverse social and politicalstructures located in that region. It has stopped usfrom carrying out detailed analyses that look at theinternal political dynamics driving these organizationsand their membership. This in turn stops us fromdeveloping effective policies for dealing with theseorganizations and structures, and from buildingstronger relations with Arab societies.

This tendency is not limited to the article underdiscussion. In response to September 11 the reactionof some parties was to ask only “what is wrong withus?” This reaction of self-blame was wrong. However,others have now flipped the question around and areinstead asking, “What is wrong with them that theyhate us?” This path is equally as flawed as the first.

Both turn thephenomena of terrorinto a simpledichotomy; theroots of terror lieeither in them or inus, but not in both.While the first

question fails to hold terrorists accountable, the secondfails to allow for any self-reflection or self-change. Itdoesn’t ask hard questions about how U.S. policy isfelt and perceived abroad. It doesn’t consider the rolethat Israel’s brutal policies in the Occupied PalestinianTerritories have had in fomenting terror.

As the U.S. continues to confront Iran on nuclearproliferation issues, and as Israel continues to confrontterrorism and attacks from various Palestinian factions,both must allow for nuanced analysis. While notnecessarily accepting all of their conclusions, both mustsee the human face of those they are confronting andmust accept them as rational actors. Both must alsotake time to reflect on their own policies and actions.

If instead we start from a premise that says they valuedeath more than life, if we accept that they are utterlyirrational and hate filled, if we don’t look insideourselves, we have backed ourselves into a corner andmight as well accept failure and conflict as inevitable.Dealing with the threat of terrorism from the premisethat holds that those who threaten us are irrationalallows us to act preemptively and reactively. However,this premise does not allow us to act creatively at atime when creativity is what we most need.

Mike Lotze is a first-year M.A. student concentratingin International Law.

Dear Mr. Editor-in-Chief,

I found your defense of the selection of Rumsfeld ascommencement speaker rather aggressive and out ofline. For one thing you dismiss the discussion of thesubject all too easily. Why should students not havean opinion on who the commencement speaker be?You attack “student opinion” as being predeterminedby ideological convictions. I do not think this isalways the case. Some, and not few, of us seegraduation as a rite of passage for students; everysingle one of them! Therefore, we believe that it isfairly inappropriate to choose a divisive speaker forthese sorts of celebrations.

Still, even more out of the line is your prepotentassertion that students who do not like the abovementioned speaker should not come tograduation.What will you say next Mr. Editor? If youdo not like my opinion do not read my newspaper?

-Agustin Cornejoforeign second-year M.A.student

Dear Mr. Cornejo,

You make a good point; I had not considered thecommencement as a right of passage. All in all,however, I stand by my letter. I did not say thatstudents who do not like Mr. Rumsfeld shouldnot attend commencement. I said to stay home ifyou cannot stand to listen to the man. In fact, Isuggested that students who disagree withRumsfeld’s politics show up because they mightlearn something. (I assure you I am no fan, but Iwill be there.) If I were a second-year, I mighthave taken issue with the commencement speakerselection process, not the selected speaker. Noadministration would ever rescind an invitationto the Secretary of Defense, and therefore callingfor such an action is a waste of the students’energies.

-Joe Erlichfirst-year M.A. student

Letters to The Editors

W ell we are nearly here, Hermippos.Day after tomorrow, it seems—that’s what the captainsaid.At least we are sailing our seas,The waters of our own countries-Cyprus, Syria,Egypt-Waters we know and love.Why so silent?Ask your heart:Didn’t you feel happierThe farther we got from Greece?What’s the point of fooling ourselves?That wouldn’t be properly Greek, would it?It’s time we admitted the truth:W e are Greeks also—what else are we?But with Asiatic tastes and feelings,Tastes and feelingsSometimes alien to Hellenism

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS OBSERVER Page 11

By Rose Dakin

On January 22, James Schlesinger, Secretary of Defense forPresidents Nixon and Ford and former director of the CentralIntelligence Agency, wrote in an editorial for the LosAngeles Times, “We live in an age where facts and logichave a hard time competing with rhetoric—especially whenthe rhetoric is political alarmism over global warming.” Hethen went on to support his rhetorical claim with two itemsof scientific uncertainty.

There is very little that is certainabout climate change, except that itis happening. The theory of anenhanced greenhouse effect wasput forward more than 125 yearsago. It has a strong basis in physics:molecules in the atmosphereabsorb heat radiated from the earthand retain it, so more gases retainmore heat. Ever since, scientistshave been trying to make a modelto predict future climate change, andinvestigations of the earth’spaleoclimate, extraterrestrialclimates (those of venus and mars),carbon cycles, ecosystem responses, solar cycles,atmospheric characterization, and changes in land use havebeen filling the pages of thousands of scientific journals.

The earth’s climate has been warming for 10,000 years, andover the past 30, the rate of warming has tripled. While noone denies this, there are plenty of differences of opinionwhen it comes to causality. The questions are: How muchare fossil combustion, land use change, and the sun toblame? How bad will warming affect different regions andwhen will this occur? Is more carbon dioxide (CO2) goodfor forests and agriculture, but bad for coral reefs? Howmuch will ecosystems stabilize (or magnify) the climatethrough negative (or positive) feedbacks? Schlesinger gotthis part of his message right: “The theory that increasingconcentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to furtherwarming is an oversimplification.” The more we know aboutclimate science, the more possibilities appear. Researchhas shown how complex a good climate model has to be.

Still, many of the undisputed facts have not changed overthe last decade. Prior to the industrial revolution, theatmospheric concentration of CO2, determined by ice cores,was 288 parts per million (ppm). When people beganburning fossil fuels for energy, the concentration grew toits current 370 ppm. As the CO2 concentration increased,temperature closely followed, indicating that the theorycannot be rejected. Schlesinger’s core criticism with thescience is the discrepancy between land and satellitemeasurements of rates of warming, but recent researchsuggests the troposphere (six to twelve miles above theearth’s surface) is expanding, while the upper atmosphere(60 to 400 miles up) is contracting and thinning at the edgesin response to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases.This could affect temperature measurements in ways thatwere not accounted for in previous models of globalwarming.

Current models predict temperatures will rise between twoand ten degrees Fahrenheit over the next one hundred years.Temperatures during the last ice age were six degrees cooleron average, for reference. In certain scenarios, modelspredict that the disruption of ocean currents due to meltingfreshwater from the poles will drop temperatures of theNorthern Hemisphere to ice-age ranges in a much shortertime frame (5-10 degrees F in a single decade in someregions). Authors of a recent Pentagon report, which

investigated worst-case outcomesof abrupt climate change, took upthis potential outcome.

In the U.S., the causal uncertaintydebate has superceded nationallegislation constraininggreenhouse gases. But the Federalparalysis has not extended tostates, government-sponsoredR&D, shareholder initiatives, andvoluntary industry action. U.S.voluntary trading increased, underthe experimental Chicago ClimateExchange, to half a million tons inits third month, February 2004, atroughly 90 cents per ton. The EPA’s

Climate Leaders program has attracted 50 industry partners,but only 14 have so far made firm (voluntary) commitments.More than two hundred U.S. companies cut CO2 emissionsby 265 million metric tons in 2002 under the Department ofEnergy’s voluntarily program. In order to stabilize theatmospheric concentration of CO2, global emissions ofgreenhouse gases would need to be reduced by 60-90percent over the next fifty years. In 2003, the U.S. emittedroughly seven billion tons of CO2.

According to Gerry Stokes, co-author of “Launching aTechnology Revolution,” basic science research andvoluntary action may not be enough. The technologies tomitigate or avoid warming—efficiency measures, renewableenergy technologies, and carbon sequestration—willrespond only when carbon has a price in the open market.In the UK, CO2 taxes have reduced emissions by 12 percent,and the European community is trading carbon at roughly$2-9 per metric ton, six million tons per month in theinternational market, mostly attributable to Kyoto Protocol(not yet in force, still waiting on Russia) commitments.

Energy utility companies considering 40-year investmentsin new power plants must be able to anticipate future marketand regulatory conditions. For this reason, five U.S. powercompanies (members of the W orld W ildlife Fund programPowerSwitch!) recently announced their support fornational carbon constraints. American Electric Power, whichburns more coal than any energy utility in the world, haslong held similar public sentiments.

Those concerned with U.S. environmental policy will befollowing these issues closely to see if the debate overemissions will lead to the development of a carbon marketsimilar to those of Europe.

Rose Dakin is a first-year M.A. student concentrating inEnergy, Environment, Science and Technology.

than 20 percent of loya jirga representatives werefemale, and their influence is visible in the text.) Mostnotably, a significant number of seats in the nationalassembly, the new bicameral legislature, areexclusively reserved for women. Education and work–both precious activities formerly denied to themajority of women–have now been declared civilrights. And in a separate article, the state is explicitlycharged with promoting female literacy.

Still, the drafting process was marked withcontroversy, and accounts of dubious politicalmaneuvering plagued the constitutional assemblyfrom start to finish. For instance, the delegates’election was marked by intimidation and violence,and security concerns were raised when severalbombings took place outside the hall where therepresentatives convened. Complaints surfaced ofbribery and coercion of delegates by PresidentKarzai’s ministers in order to guarantee theconstitutional powers of the executive office. And ina striking first-hand account of one delegate whoasked to be kept anonymous, factional leadersreputedly threatened a young woman before the loyajirga when she objected to their heavy-handedpolitical tactics.

In an unsettling analysis of the constitutionaldrafting process, Human Rights W atch documentedthe domination of the Loya Jirga by the very samefactional leaders whose power it sought to weaken;namely, Rashid Dostum and Abdul Rabb al-RasulSayyaf, both suspected of committing serious warcrimes during the Afghan civil war in the 1990s. Theirpresence, and the failure of the U.S. to reign in suchfigures after thirty months of active militaryengagement, was perceived by many delegates as asign that the old order remains alive and well.

Afghanistan’s decline in public consciousness is alsoalarming, as its status overshadowed by the sheermagnitude of the U.S. occupation of Iraq. Major U.S.and W estern newspaper coverage of the country’sevents has become increasingly sporadic, with mostattention being directed towards coalition forcecasualties – an odd situation for a key country in thewar on terror and the host for the hunt for Al-Qaedamastermind Osama bin Laden. In an editorialpublished upon the constitution’s completion, policyexpert and current U.S. ambassador to AfghanistanZalmay Khalilzad restated the importance of theU.S.’s ongoing active engagement for the durationof Afghanistan’s development.

Attitudes are unlikely to shift miraculously overnightin a country like Afghanistan, where corruption haslong been part and parcel of politics. Now, with thebenefit of hindsight, the stakes in allowingAfghanistan to once again be overtaken by broadergeopolitical interests are far too high. The creationof the constitution is a critical first step forAfghanistan, but it is clearly not the last.

Fatima Ayub is a first-year M.A. student and anassociate at Search for Common Ground, aninternational conflict resolution organization.

Pantelis Solomon is a second-year student concentrating in International Development.Michalis Persianis is a first-year student concentrating in European Studies

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Cypriot Identity

Implications for global warming, American policy remain uncertain

Atmospheric CO Levels Increasing2Continued from Page 1

Loya Jirga Approves Constitution

identity is emerging. The “Solution Now Platform” andthe “This Land is Ours” organizations are two ofnumerous newly-formed NGOs. Their agenda combinescultural and political spheres, furthering a more completeand mature understanding of what it means to be Cypriot.

This said, Turkish Cypriots will still be Turks, and GreekCypriots will still be Greeks. A Cypriot civic identity doesnot negate the ethnic element in the self-identificationof Cypriots. But the ethnic and civic identities can becomplementary and the new federation can thrive ontheir integration.

The celebrated Greek poet from Alexandria, C.P. Cavafy,eloquently expressed the duality of national identities,in his poem Returning to Greece:

This Crisis Simulation moment is brought to you by ADDCSAO (AttentionDefecit Disorder Counseling for Senior Administration Officials.)

March 23, 2004 THE SAIS OBSERVER Page 12

*Summer fellowship application forms for SAIS students are available onthe bulletin board outside the Office of Summer Programs, Nitze 304.

The deadline for fellowship applications is Friday, March 26.