Managing Statistics in Conflict Situations:

The case of Afghanistan

Abdul Rahman GhafooriPresident General

Central Statistics Organization, Afghanistan

Data from Conflict-Affected Regions June 9 and 10, 2011

Brussels

In conflict situations, short-term and emergency focus become the norm. Long-term planning and evidence-based decision- making are usually casualties.

Decision-making often becomes personality-based and reactive. The importance of collecting statistics for development gets lost.

Statistics is relegated to the tail-end priority, the funds needed to maintain the statistical system dry up, the capacities built over decades get eroded, and culture of inertia develops, as part of a new culture, the culture of war and conflict.

INTRODUCTION

Most of the available institutions are destroyed both in terms of physical infrastructure and human resources.

Massive brain drain takes place and the country usually loses talented individuals and personalities.

Prolonged war and conflict cause continuation of brain drain and development of a new culture - culture of war.

Continuously increasing data gap becomes evident and unavoidable.

INTRODUCTION (CONTD.)

As war ends the need for a strategy to rehabilitate and improve the ruined statistical system becomes immanent.

Need for: - Institutional Development and capacity

building

- Conduct of surveys and censuses - data gap, reconstruction and development needs

- Administrative-based data collection

- Field level adjustments

EFFORTS IN MANAGING STATISTICS

The capacity erosion needs to be tackled.

The capacity building efforts have to be planned keeping in mind the real statistical need and knowledge levels of the targeted staff.

The training and capacity building efforts have to be designed demand-driven rather than supply driven.

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING

Need for a National Statistical Plan

CSO developed Afghanistan National Statistical Plan (ANSP) with the help of WB and other donors particularly DFID and UNDP. UK and Holland support through- WB

ANSP includes: - trainings (classroom and on-the-job trainings)

- strengthened interaction/intra governmental collaboration

- improvement of physical and ICT infrastructure

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING(Contd.)

CSO’s current activities are:

- Local trainings, English, Computer, Mathematics, Basic/Intermediate/Advance Statistics, National Accounts, etc. - Training staff outside the country and exposure visits - workshops/seminars

- Educating other ministries to ensure that these are used as inputs to policy making and program development

- Publicity and Media Campaign

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING(Contd.)

Hope:

- Efforts and continued support of the government, local and international

institutions

- CSO will overcome the problems of human resources, financial, and physical

infrastructures

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING(Contd.)

The importance of Statistics suffers during the conflict and there is the need to make special efforts to reach out and sensitize all the stakeholders regarding importance of statistics in the development.

Afghanistan has prepared its national strategy , ANDS to guide its development in collaboration with the international community over the next four or five years.

CSO and AFGHANISTAN NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (ANDS)

Administrative systems of data collection need to be strengthened as the most cost-effective sources of data.

CSO gives special importance to improving the administrative statistical systems. It has already established a Statistical Training Center. Staff of all the relevant ministries will be trained and equipped.

ADMINISTRATIVE BASED DATA COLLECTION

Preparing the national accounts on the basis of SNA 93

For generating data on prices, CSO started with coverage of only one province, then increased to 6 and it has recently started to gether from four more provinces to make them 10. It has been planned to cover all 34 provinces.

This incremental approach helps in gaining experience and confidence.

NEW STATISTICAL ACTIVITIES

Household Listing (HHL)

Enumeration Areas (EAs) established on the basis of the 2003-2005 HHL so that all EAs are of approximately equal size;

Strategies:

- Conducted a full-fledged HHL only in the Provincial Centers, which housed most of the urbanized areas of the country

FIELD LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS FOR SURVEYS CENSUSES

- For the remaining parts of the country, limited the HHL operation to counting the number dwellings in each village.

- For the areas, which could not be reached due to security reasons, district administrators and village heads were invited at the provincial centers to provide information.

FIELD LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS FOR SURVEYS CENSUSES

Population and Housing CensusStrategies:

- Provincial Census instead of National Census is proposed and is under discussion, NCC.

- It has been proposed to be undertaken within three years, with proper scheduling of 34 provinces

- This approach is appropriate in the Afghanistan context given the current security situation in the country.

FIELD LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS FOR SURVEYS CENSUSES

Thank You