managing risk during pv plant development
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Managing Risk During PV Plant DevelopmentTRANSCRIPT
Managing Risk During PV Plant Development
q This webinar will be available afterwards at www.solarpowerworldonline.com & email
q Q&A at the end of the presentation q Hashtag for this webinar: #SolarWebinar
Before We Start
Frank Andorka Solar Power World
Moderator Presenters
Scott Jezwinski UL, LLC
Chris Flueckiger UL, LLC
Managing Risk in PV Plant Developments
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Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Plants
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1. PV Module 2. DC Switch Gear 3. DC/AC Inverter 4. AC Switch Gear 5. Substation 6. Distribution Network 1
2
3 4
5
6
PV Plant Reference Model
DC/AC
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• Feasibility analysis • Site control • Permits • Due diligence (EYA) • Technology analysis • Detailed design • Contracts
• Project management • Procurement • Construction management • Regulatory compliance • Environmental compliance • Stakeholder reporting • Commissioning
• Performance monitoring/reporting
• Issue detection • Preventative maintenance • Site maintenance • Production reporting
Short list of development activities
PV Plant Development Phases
Planning & Design Construction Operations & Maintenance
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Attractive Risk Fundamentals • Passive systems with no or few moving parts • Modularity of construction • Maturing and stabilizing technology
Simplified PV Project Risk Management Strategy: • Step 1: Identify and assess risks • Step 2: Mitigate and/or distribute risk across stakeholders • Step 3: Insure risk that is not allocated
PV Risk Management
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Technical Risk Concerns Impact Solar Resource Estimation Confidence in solar resource data as
basis for projections • Production shortfall
Component Specifications Performance specifications adequate for the location/ application
• Production shortfall • System downtime
System Design Balance integration of components with system reliability, availability and maintainability
• Production shortfalls • System downtime
Energy Yield Projections Confidence in performance estimates • Production shortfalls
Construction Risks Compliance to codes and standards, integrity of the built system, experience of construction staff
• Unplanned cost • Delayed production
In-‐‑Service Risks Component reliability and performance over time.
• Unplanned cost • System downtime • Production shortfalls
General Categories of Risk
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Risk and Uncertainty
“Uncertainty factors” are associated with energy yield projections and introduce an additional element of risk.
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Spe
nd/In
come
$$
Planning & Design Construction Operations & Maintenance
Commercial Operation Date (COD)
*
Risk Scenario
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Financial profile of a PV project. Planned Rate of
Spend
Production
Planning & Design Construction Operations & Maintenance
Spe
nd/In
come
$$
Commercial Operation Date (COD)
*
Added Cost of Defects 1. Rework #1 2. Rework #2
Risk Scenario
2
1
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Planning & Design Construction Operations & Maintenance
Spen
d/Inc
ome $
$
Commercial Operation Date (COD)
*
3 4
5
Total Additional Cost of Defects 1. Rework #1 2. Rework #2 3. Corrective Action 4. Contractual Penalty 5. Missed Opportunity
Risk Scenario
2
1
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Cost
of Re
movin
g Defe
ct $
Planning & Design Construction Operations & Maintenance
Cost of Defects
1X 10X
100X
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Relative cost of removing defects
Planning and Design Phase
• Feasibility analysis • Site control • Permits • Due diligence (EYA) • Technology analysis • Detailed design • Contracts
Planning & Design
Solar Resource
Shading
Weather
Energy Yield
Contracts
Design Approval
Feasibility Analysis
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Planning & Design and Risk
Uncertainties impacting risk: • Solar resource and meteorological conditions
• Integrity and performance of products ( hardware)
• System design - balancing cost and performance
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Construction Phase
• Project management • Procurement • Construction management • Regulatory compliance • Environmental compliance • Stakeholder Reporting • Commissioning
Construction
DC/AC
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Construction and Risk
Risk realization during construction: • Non-compliant construction (codes)
• Non-compliant products (standards)
• Construction errors
• Product modifications in the field
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Operations & Maintenance
Operations & Maintenance
• Performance monitoring/reporting
• Issue detection • Preventative maintenance • Site maintenance • Production reporting
SCADA
DC/AC
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O&M and Risk
Risk realization during on-going operations: • Hardware failures
• Unplanned power degradation ( beyond expected)
• Electrical hazards develop ( bonding and grounding)
• Interconnection and grid stability
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UL - Identify/Mitigating PV Plant Risk • A global service provider for
developers, EPCs, financiers, owners/operators and insurers of PV systems.
• Over 300 PV system related field transactions
• Involved in nearly 1GW of PV plant projects with related services
• Trusted partner across development phases:
• Planning &Design • Construction • Operations & Maintenance
• Mitigating project risk and delay
UL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2014
Thank You
Contact: Sco^ Jezwinski -‐‑ Business Dev Manager Phone: 847-‐‑664-‐‑3310 sco^[email protected] www.ul.com
UL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2014
Contact: Chris Flueckiger – Principal Engineer Phone: 847-‐‑664-‐‑2864 [email protected] www.ul.com
BUILDING TRUST
into the
PV VALUE CHAIN
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Questions?
Frank Andorka Solar Power World [email protected] Twitter: @SolarFrankA
Scott Jezwinski UL, LLC [email protected] Phone: 847.664.3310
Chris Flueckiger UL, LLC [email protected] Phone: 847.664.2864
q This webinar will be available at www.solarpowerworldonline.com & email
q Tweet with hashtag #SolarWebinar
q Connect with Solar Power World
q Discuss this topic on EngineeringExchange.com
Thank You