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Malte Schwoon. University of Hamburg. International Max Planck Research School on EARTH SYSTEM MODELLING. Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change. Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences. Learning-by-doing, Learning Spillovers and the Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PowerPoint-PräsentationLearning-by-doing, Learning Spillovers and the Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change
Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Hamburg
EARTH SYSTEM MODELLING
Presentation at the
May 17-18, 2006, Amsterdam
*
Learning by doing (LBD) in fuel cell technologies
LBD in energy technologies
Learning spillovers
Conclusion
1
*
Long term potential: Individual transport with low CO2
emissions (depending on energy mix of hydrogen production)
Reduced dependency on oil
1
*
• Fuel: CGH2
• Cont. 33 kW, max. 45 kW
• Range: 250km
• Regenerative braking
Honda FCX (2005)
*
We will never switch!
We can switch soon!
No H2-infrastructure nobody buys FCV
Nobody buys FCV no H2-infrastructure
The - problem of H2-infrastructure
*
Scenarios/Projections of the diffusion of FCVs and/or H2-infrastructure:
Schlecht (2003), Thomas et al. (1998), Moore and Raman (1998), Ogden (1999, 2002), Stromberger (2003), Mercuri et al. (2002), Sørensen et al. (2004), Oi and Wada (2004), Hart (2005), etc.
Common approach
2. Derive implied H2-demand/H2-infrastructure
Studies ignore dynamic interactions
1
*
Government:
Producers:
*
Source: Wene (2000)
1
*
1
*
- 12 producers
for (mass) production of 1000 units
Learning rate (LR) 15% (sens. 10-20%)
Fuel cell cost Internal combustion engine
5% tax increase every year (tax 40%)
1
*
1
Diagramm4
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010.25
2010.25
2010.25
2010.25
2010.25
2010.5
2010.5
2010.5
2010.5
2010.5
2010.75
2010.75
2010.75
2010.75
2010.75
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011.25
2011.25
2011.25
2011.25
2011.25
2011.5
2011.5
2011.5
2011.5
2011.5
2011.75
2011.75
2011.75
2011.75
2011.75
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012.25
2012.25
2012.25
2012.25
2012.25
2012.5
2012.5
2012.5
2012.5
2012.5
2012.75
2012.75
2012.75
2012.75
2012.75
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013.25
2013.25
2013.25
2013.25
2013.25
2013.5
2013.5
2013.5
2013.5
2013.5
2013.75
2013.75
2013.75
2013.75
2013.75
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014.25
2014.25
2014.25
2014.25
2014.25
2014.5
2014.5
2014.5
2014.5
2014.5
2014.75
2014.75
2014.75
2014.75
2014.75
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015.25
2015.25
2015.25
2015.25
2015.25
2015.5
2015.5
2015.5
2015.5
2015.5
2015.75
2015.75
2015.75
2015.75
2015.75
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016.25
2016.25
2016.25
2016.25
2016.25
2016.5
2016.5
2016.5
2016.5
2016.5
2016.75
2016.75
2016.75
2016.75
2016.75
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017.25
2017.25
2017.25
2017.25
2017.25
2017.5
2017.5
2017.5
2017.5
2017.5
2017.75
2017.75
2017.75
2017.75
2017.75
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018.25
2018.25
2018.25
2018.25
2018.25
2018.5
2018.5
2018.5
2018.5
2018.5
2018.75
2018.75
2018.75
2018.75
2018.75
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019.25
2019.25
2019.25
2019.25
2019.25
2019.5
2019.5
2019.5
2019.5
2019.5
2019.75
2019.75
2019.75
2019.75
2019.75
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020.25
2020.25
2020.25
2020.25
2020.25
2020.5
2020.5
2020.5
2020.5
2020.5
2020.75
2020.75
2020.75
2020.75
2020.75
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021.25
2021.25
2021.25
2021.25
2021.25
2021.5
2021.5
2021.5
2021.5
2021.5
2021.75
2021.75
2021.75
2021.75
2021.75
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022.25
2022.25
2022.25
2022.25
2022.25
2022.5
2022.5
2022.5
2022.5
2022.5
2022.75
2022.75
2022.75
2022.75
2022.75
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023.25
2023.25
2023.25
2023.25
2023.25
2023.5
2023.5
2023.5
2023.5
2023.5
2023.75
2023.75
2023.75
2023.75
2023.75
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024.25
2024.25
2024.25
2024.25
2024.25
2024.5
2024.5
2024.5
2024.5
2024.5
2024.75
2024.75
2024.75
2024.75
2024.75
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025.25
2025.25
2025.25
2025.25
2025.25
2025.5
2025.5
2025.5
2025.5
2025.5
2025.75
2025.75
2025.75
2025.75
2025.75
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026.25
2026.25
2026.25
2026.25
2026.25
2026.5
2026.5
2026.5
2026.5
2026.5
2026.75
2026.75
2026.75
2026.75
2026.75
2027
2027
2027
2027
2027
2027.25
2027.25
2027.25
2027.25
2027.25
2027.5
2027.5
2027.5
2027.5
2027.5
2027.75
2027.75
2027.75
2027.75
2027.75
2028
2028
2028
2028
2028
2028.25
2028.25
2028.25
2028.25
2028.25
2028.5
2028.5
2028.5
2028.5
2028.5
2028.75
2028.75
2028.75
2028.75
2028.75
2029
2029
2029
2029
2029
2029.25
2029.25
2029.25
2029.25
2029.25
2029.5
2029.5
2029.5
2029.5
2029.5
2029.75
2029.75
2029.75
2029.75
2029.75
2030
2030
2030
2030
2030
year
period
Fig2_LR10
Fig2_LR12_5
Fig2_LR15
Fig2_LR17_5
Fig2_LR20
averFig3_TH1years
averFig3_TH2years
averFig3_TH4years
averFig3_TH5years
Fig4_5proc
Fig4_10proc
Fig4_25proc
Fig4_100proc
Fig5_25spLR12_5
Fig5_25spLR17_5
0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2005.3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2005.5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2005.8
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2006.0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2006.3
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2006.5
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2006.8
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2007.0
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2007.3
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2007.5
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2007.8
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2008.0
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2008.3
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2008.5
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2008.8
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2009.0
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2009.3
17
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2009.5
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2009.8
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2010.0
20
0
0
0
0
0.000877
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2010.3
21
0
0
0
0
0.000926
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2010.5
22
0
0
0
0
0.001143
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2010.8
23
0
0
0
0
0.001101
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Figure 2 Percentage share of FCVs within newly registered cars in the German compact car segment: Different learning rates in fuel cell technologies
2011.0
24
0
0
0
0
0.001053
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2011.3
25
0
0
0
0
0.001091
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2011.5
26
0
0
0
0
0.001
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2011.8
27
0
0
0
0
0.001154
0
0
0.000198
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2012.0
28
0
0
0
0
0.000206
0
0
0.000577
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2012.3
29
0
0
0
0
0.00049
0
0
0.00055
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2012.5
30
0
0
0
0
0.00094
0
0
0.000556
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2012.8
31
0
0
0
0
0.000957
0
0.000185
0.000571
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2013.0
32
0
0
0
0
0.001028
0
0.000536
0.000583
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2013.3
33
0
0
0
0
0.000991
0
0.000981
0.000594
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2013.5
34
0
0
0
0
0.000909
0
0.001582
0.000594
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2013.8
35
0
0
0
0
0.000973
0
0.001365
0.000588
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2014.0
36
0
0
0
0
0.000877
0
0.001612
0.000505
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2014.3
37
0.000367
0.000367
0.000367
0.000367
0.002942
0
0.002336
0.00096
0
0.000367
0.000367
0.000367
0.000367
0.000367
0.000367
2014.5
38
0.000714
0.000714
0.000714
0.000714
0.006628
0
0.001873
0.001036
0.000291
0.000714
0.000714
0.000714
0.000714
0.000714
0.000714
2014.8
39
0.000721
0.000721
0.000721
0.004208
0.01104
0
0.002396
0.001031
0.000291
0.000721
0.000721
0.000721
0.000721
0.000721
0.004208
2015.0
40
0.000748
0.000748
0.000748
0.013796
0.030468
0
0.00188
0.0009
0.002245
0.000748
0.000748
0.000748
0.000748
0.000748
0.013796
2015.3
41
0.000769
0.002701
0.002701
0.013737
0.039241
0.000673
0.003381
0.00483
0.00755
0.002701
0.002701
0.002701
0.002701
0.002701
0.01565
2015.5
42
0.000571
0.002486
0.002486
0.031944
0.056558
0.000686
0.003992
0.010757
0.011443
0.002486
0.002486
0.002486
0.002486
0.002486
0.035497
2015.8
43
0.000748
0.002378
0.002726
0.04236
0.068838
0.00068
0.004373
0.013782
0.01302
0.002726
0.002726
0.002726
0.002726
0.002378
0.047105
2016.0
44
0.000583
0.002928
0.021994
0.090257
0.124682
0.003106
0.013319
0.052356
0.054163
0.021994
0.021994
0.021994
0.025206
0.002928
0.093393
2016.3
45
0.000777
0.002839
0.04433
0.120483
0.16205
0.004688
0.024831
0.064552
0.081098
0.04433
0.04433
0.04433
0.049786
0.004612
0.126514
2016.5
46
0.001473
0.003175
0.05575
0.143274
0.1879
0.004769
0.028985
0.077144
0.10244
0.05575
0.05563
0.05575
0.063858
0.005277
0.150797
2016.8
47
0.002265
0.008114
0.064438
0.164028
0.21109
0.005337
0.03402
0.093514
0.131923
0.064377
0.064567
0.064438
0.077048
0.009938
0.178391
2017.0
48
0.002473
0.024037
0.121628
0.212756
0.25824
0.025229
0.072777
0.156265
0.181515
0.12169
0.121381
0.127573
0.148805
0.025806
0.223369
2017.3
49
0.004152
0.042306
0.156368
0.239601
0.283901
0.041591
0.101613
0.189225
0.206058
0.155555
0.157802
0.162983
0.176985
0.048015
0.257931
Figure 3 Percentage share of FCVs within newly registered cars: Different lengths of the producers' decision horizons
2017.5
50
0.004152
0.051507
0.172047
0.268735
0.301994
0.051814
0.110596
0.203864
0.232001
0.172635
0.173369
0.179659
0.191386
0.058611
0.281137
2017.8
51
0.00333
0.057751
0.190749
0.280021
0.312497
0.061747
0.137274
0.22192
0.252148
0.193302
0.194722
0.198482
0.209337
0.066664
0.30093
2018.0
52
0.004044
0.06536
0.207947
0.292887
0.326606
0.082102
0.171727
0.237268
0.264765
0.212052
0.213259
0.219701
0.239132
0.074752
0.307733
2018.3
53
0.004444
0.072904
0.231081
0.298041
0.336667
0.088666
0.186122
0.239919
0.27945
0.231661
0.232869
0.244812
0.25953
0.084418
0.315912
2018.5
54
0.004
0.075764
0.239759
0.308682
0.346415
0.091899
0.197823
0.259285
0.292419
0.238356
0.245431
0.253383
0.281247
0.090664
0.330241
2018.8
55
0.004031
0.082301
0.2426
0.309365
0.349101
0.098635
0.208794
0.267492
0.300015
0.241992
0.247479
0.25667
0.280387
0.096779
0.338087
2019.0
56
0.004089
0.084392
0.249645
0.307069
0.361674
0.112463
0.227653
0.270401
0.300589
0.253169
0.256182
0.26489
0.292322
0.102128
0.329541
2019.3
57
0.004329
0.092844
0.256977
0.320258
0.371196
0.115008
0.245101
0.272109
0.30092
0.263071
0.270324
0.279396
0.30507
0.108768
0.340083
2019.5
58
0.005648
0.094712
0.259745
0.329778
0.380319
0.123624
0.24217
0.277654
0.312361
0.260904
0.270527
0.283644
0.310207
0.114853
0.35358
2019.8
59
0.006028
0.099924
0.266045
0.333476
0.382703
0.133376
0.251363
0.280853
0.32175
0.267179
0.279262
0.293409
0.317737
0.122593
0.36163
2020.0
60
0.006215
0.099999
0.271614
0.341553
0.392819
0.14216
0.263191
0.295176
0.319052
0.276912
0.290496
0.306183
0.327231
0.127774
0.36539
2020.3
61
0.005779
0.109645
0.273906
0.347316
0.395563
0.15145
0.265177
0.291392
0.319948
0.282759
0.292095
0.310668
0.329871
0.140988
0.373332
2020.5
62
0.00657
0.110471
0.281348
0.351864
0.399812
0.16657
0.266052
0.29414
0.329759
0.288496
0.304098
0.323125
0.338635
0.145352
0.3763
2020.8
63
0.005416
0.113626
0.281246
0.351115
0.408186
0.173483
0.276103
0.296523
0.329378
0.292349
0.311205
0.32547
0.343888
0.148307
0.38246
2021.0
64
0.007501
0.127144
0.284655
0.358357
0.412422
0.180145
0.286093
0.307183
0.334477
0.292804
0.31289
0.329816
0.349298
0.16314
0.388528
2021.3
65
0.008398
0.125228
0.291495
0.360356
0.42242
0.187904
0.284105
0.308778
0.333587
0.303646
0.319
0.340402
0.355819
0.163673
0.393872
2021.5
66
0.007959
0.129463
0.301954
0.367892
0.427538
0.193117
0.285815
0.311189
0.340779
0.312121
0.3312
0.351319
0.367427
0.172565
0.399372
2021.8
67
0.010289
0.133958
0.299899
0.371929
0.427727
0.201964
0.294076
0.315463
0.344586
0.311311
0.330387
0.348144
0.36802
0.179084
0.401555
2022.0
68
0.010117
0.137589
0.307364
0.376599
0.437569
0.204427
0.297432
0.315794
0.343899
0.316362
0.335129
0.357584
0.374124
0.186415
0.403945
2022.3
69
0.011994
0.145038
0.314839
0.388739
0.449945
0.215617
0.304118
0.326482
0.348415
0.322284
0.341319
0.370437
0.380608
0.185311
0.422319
2022.5
70
0.013334
0.151603
0.322039
0.398964
0.459008
0.222327
0.305745
0.333603
0.361584
0.336676
0.351108
0.374477
0.388705
0.18991
0.432184
2022.8
71
0.011245
0.156453
0.326343
0.39642
0.462504
0.228735
0.3086
0.334451
0.362064
0.338089
0.35629
0.375811
0.394898
0.196851
0.430996
2023.0
72
0.012381
0.158395
0.337958
0.40755
0.471838
0.229468
0.322702
0.33925
0.36893
0.348399
0.366032
0.382463
0.405353
0.203526
0.440912
2023.3
73
0.012959
0.165112
0.337695
0.41241
0.479071
0.233341
0.321748
0.346501
0.376929
0.346726
0.369267
0.386243
0.40764
0.203718
0.448945
2023.5
74
0.013782
0.169467
0.339115
0.415277
0.491574
0.245131
0.329175
0.34933
0.375698
0.355867
0.382141
0.396092
0.419623
0.220698
0.455812
2023.8
75
0.011954
0.161538
0.344841
0.427235
0.496105
0.247312
0.328962
0.350555
0.37739
0.361999
0.39145
0.400678
0.421147
0.220641
0.463751
2024.0
76
0.013009
0.175925
0.357492
0.422374
0.499499
0.25944
0.339863
0.353865
0.380315
0.370793
0.398848
0.40041
0.427785
0.226424
0.469425
2024.3
77
0.012995
0.179058
0.357921
0.431705
0.512874
0.267164
0.349261
0.357032
0.386663
0.378799
0.405035
0.406321
0.433373
0.237622
0.476464
2024.5
78
0.012763
0.181334
0.357186
0.444079
0.515887
0.274637
0.360393
0.360299
0.390666
0.384951
0.40938
0.420255
0.438554
0.241418
0.501653
Figure 4 Percentage share of FCVs within newly registered cars: Different rates of learning spillovers
2024.8
79
0.012267
0.184274
0.365416
0.447207
0.519298
0.277051
0.368889
0.373807
0.400004
0.389806
0.414252
0.428695
0.441347
0.245063
0.500205
2025.0
80
0.013545
0.192069
0.370182
0.455148
0.530841
0.290008
0.378051
0.382422
0.40869
0.400393
0.423177
0.439776
0.45399
0.257327
0.503618
2025.3
81
0.011818
0.193038
0.374383
0.461553
0.533494
0.288075
0.382048
0.379047
0.406049
0.406387
0.432786
0.448567
0.460635
0.260055
0.517957
2025.5
82
0.014839
0.198261
0.383433
0.468812
0.542651
0.293933
0.392925
0.388741
0.409456
0.410307
0.436844
0.458605
0.471226
0.258941
0.519109
2025.8
83
0.014993
0.196261
0.386936
0.4694
0.543501
0.30162
0.401502
0.397987
0.417553
0.415879
0.446173
0.468746
0.476291
0.266137
0.525698
2026.0
84
0.013962
0.200555
0.39708
0.479069
0.551
0.300555
0.411374
0.394405
0.419527
0.429879
0.452893
0.470199
0.483999
0.27476
0.536772
2026.3
85
0.015837
0.204601
0.404225
0.482597
0.561674
0.306758
0.417806
0.39862
0.423037
0.436165
0.462016
0.474973
0.489701
0.277129
0.541924
2026.5
86
0.015252
0.212755
0.405947
0.499068
0.567483
0.318684
0.437398
0.412044
0.426942
0.43953
0.470278
0.492959
0.506989
0.282232
0.548566
2026.8
87
0.016372
0.220361
0.4128
0.505651
0.575867
0.321416
0.438573
0.413722
0.435051
0.445888
0.472566
0.500903
0.511824
0.292667
0.556937
2027.0
88
0.015419
0.225228
0.41473
0.511117
0.575904
0.316646
0.444618
0.416533
0.429342
0.456803
0.479938
0.501414
0.516958
0.298635
0.562973
2027.3
89
0.015742
0.227426
0.425389
0.516124
0.578906
0.331259
0.450235
0.422214
0.437562
0.461251
0.489211
0.509736
0.524889
0.302523
0.561225
2027.5
90
0.018298
0.236807
0.434553
0.522912
0.593198
0.330236
0.455639
0.434374
0.446158
0.465823
0.491571
0.511961
0.529521
0.310378
0.571254
2027.8
91
0.021307
0.241342
0.439966
0.533084
0.598929
0.336409
0.467409
0.434036
0.448333
0.481728
0.503511
0.522153
0.534679
0.312956
0.576212
2028.0
92
0.023858
0.244752
0.453566
0.537952
0.599988
0.342345
0.470956
0.441745
0.447848
0.486361
0.512486
0.535182
0.53723
0.316095
0.578322
2028.3
93
0.025266
0.251072
0.462394
0.552892
0.605588
0.346923
0.476055
0.443631
0.455428
0.490046
0.514542
0.539637
0.541181
0.322377
0.585237
2028.5
94
0.024388
0.255705
0.474126
0.552838
0.603166
0.347662
0.483301
0.447304
0.454613
0.497283
0.520288
0.545805
0.552738
0.33181
0.598035
2028.8
95
0.025375
0.254835
0.47796
0.562703
0.612112
0.35714
0.485288
0.451926
0.452885
0.500657
0.522514
0.545881
0.559121
0.335337
0.599855
2029.0
96
0.025395
0.264852
0.481186
0.573288
0.623099
0.364865
0.493804
0.459009
0.462501
0.510494
0.526639
0.553611
0.567158
0.341029
0.605795
2029.3
97
0.028011
0.268824
0.485305
0.572176
0.619555
0.369618
0.495826
0.465235
0.463667
0.513377
0.52917
0.557771
0.573466
0.351211
0.609598
2029.5
98
0.026582
0.280056
0.493841
0.582013
0.623913
0.372159
0.502107
0.477683
0.478067
0.519338
0.538158
0.563062
0.581762
0.352801
0.61738
2029.8
99
0.027574
0.279413
0.493913
0.587261
0.62996
0.369159
0.510021
0.477671
0.468989
0.522028
0.540902
0.563129
0.584812
0.360902
0.62223
2030.0
100
0.027512
0.290414
0.502967
0.585871
0.633629
0.377678
0.517573
0.482786
0.476864
0.523003
0.548559
0.572885
0.586903
0.372
0.626846
Figure 5 Percentage share of FCVs within newly registered cars: Impact of learning rates vs. impact of learning spillovers
Tabelle1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
*
Joint research projects
(Opposite: proprietary learning)
*
Learning spillovers
10% spillover: 10 FCVs produced at competitor's plant equivalent to 1 produced at own plant
Percentage share of FCVs within newly registered
cars in the German compact car segment
1
Diagramm6
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010.25
2010.25
2010.25
2010.25
2010.25
2010.5
2010.5
2010.5
2010.5
2010.5
2010.75
2010.75
2010.75
2010.75
2010.75
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011.25
2011.25
2011.25
2011.25
2011.25
2011.5
2011.5
2011.5
2011.5
2011.5
2011.75
2011.75
2011.75
2011.75
2011.75
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012.25
2012.25
2012.25
2012.25
2012.25
2012.5
2012.5
2012.5
2012.5
2012.5
2012.75
2012.75
2012.75
2012.75
2012.75
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013.25
2013.25
2013.25
2013.25
2013.25
2013.5
2013.5
2013.5
2013.5
2013.5
2013.75
2013.75
2013.75
2013.75
2013.75
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014.25
2014.25
2014.25
2014.25
2014.25
2014.5
2014.5
2014.5
2014.5
2014.5
2014.75
2014.75
2014.75
2014.75
2014.75
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015.25
2015.25
2015.25
2015.25
2015.25
2015.5
2015.5
2015.5
2015.5
2015.5
2015.75
2015.75
2015.75
2015.75
2015.75
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016.25
2016.25
2016.25
2016.25
2016.25
2016.5
2016.5
2016.5
2016.5
2016.5
2016.75
2016.75
2016.75
2016.75
2016.75
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017.25
2017.25
2017.25
2017.25
2017.25
2017.5
2017.5
2017.5
2017.5
2017.5
2017.75
2017.75
2017.75
2017.75
2017.75
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018.25
2018.25
2018.25
2018.25
2018.25
2018.5
2018.5
2018.5
2018.5
2018.5
2018.75
2018.75
2018.75
2018.75
2018.75
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019.25
2019.25
2019.25
2019.25
2019.25
2019.5
2019.5
2019.5
2019.5
2019.5
2019.75
2019.75
2019.75
2019.75
2019.75
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020.25
2020.25
2020.25
2020.25
2020.25
2020.5
2020.5
2020.5
2020.5
2020.5
2020.75
2020.75
2020.75
2020.75
2020.75
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021.25
2021.25
2021.25
2021.25
2021.25
2021.5
2021.5
2021.5
2021.5
2021.5
2021.75
2021.75
2021.75
2021.75
2021.75
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022.25
2022.25
2022.25
2022.25
2022.25
2022.5
2022.5
2022.5
2022.5
2022.5
2022.75
2022.75
2022.75
2022.75
2022.75
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023.25
2023.25
2023.25
2023.25
2023.25
2023.5
2023.5
2023.5
2023.5
2023.5
2023.75
2023.75
2023.75
2023.75
2023.75
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024.25
2024.25
2024.25
2024.25
2024.25
2024.5
2024.5
2024.5
2024.5
2024.5
2024.75
2024.75
2024.75
2024.75
2024.75
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025.25
2025.25
2025.25
2025.25
2025.25
2025.5
2025.5
2025.5
2025.5
2025.5
2025.75
2025.75
2025.75
2025.75
2025.75
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026.25
2026.25
2026.25
2026.25
2026.25
2026.5
2026.5
2026.5
2026.5
2026.5
2026.75
2026.75
2026.75
2026.75
2026.75
2027
2027
2027
2027
2027
2027.25
2027.25
2027.25
2027.25
2027.25
2027.5
2027.5
2027.5
2027.5
2027.5
2027.75
2027.75
2027.75
2027.75
2027.75
2028
2028
2028
2028
2028
2028.25
2028.25
2028.25
2028.25
2028.25
2028.5
2028.5
2028.5
2028.5
2028.5
2028.75
2028.75
2028.75
2028.75
2028.75
2029
2029
2029
2029
2029
2029.25
2029.25
2029.25
2029.25
2029.25
2029.5
2029.5
2029.5
2029.5
2029.5
2029.75
2029.75
2029.75
2029.75
2029.75
2030
2030
2030
2030
2030
100%…