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Making it happen!. In Support of the Global Plan Towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections among Children by 2015 and Keeping their Mothers Alive. Page 7. Two global targets by 2015 : Reduce the number of new HIV infections among children by 90%. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Number of new HIV child infections if: - PMTCT coverage/regimen at 2009 levels - Prong 3 (ARV/ART to 90% of HIV+ PW) - Prongs 1, 2 and 3 (50% reduction Incidence, unmet FP to Zero, and 90% ARV/ART) - Prongs 1, 2, and 3 and limit BF to 12 months367,00072,000 (79%)95,000 (73%)138,000 (60%)Value in 2015(% reduction)

    Chart13

    347143347141347141345000

    349470234483234483216000

    352552213260204638184000

    356146193018174902153000

    359769173495146120123000

    36343215492011924896000

    3665431375739498272000

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, and eliminate unmet need for family planning

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, eliminate unmet need for family planning, restrict breastfeeding to 12 months

    Estimated New HIV infections among children: Different scenarios for 25 countries

    25 countries

    NEW CHILD INFECTIONS2009 estimated new HIV infections among children2015 estimated new HIV infections among children

    20082009201020112012201320142015

    No ARV prophylaxis for PMTCT434685436506438615441439444725447888451205453869

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART363905347143349470352552356146359769363432366543

    P390% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines347141234483213260193018173495154920137573

    P1,2,390% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, and eliminate unmet need for family planning34714123448320463817490214612011924894982

    12 MOS90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, eliminate unmet need for family planning, restrict breastfeeding to 12 months3454322159161838181525331228619561571608

    ROUNDEDNo ARV prophylaxis for PMTCT435000437000439000441000445000448000451000454000

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART364000347000349000353000356000360000363000367000

    P390% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines347000234000213000193000173000155000138000

    P1,2,390% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, and eliminate unmet need for family planning34700023400020500017500014600011900095000

    12 MOS90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, eliminate unmet need for family planning, restrict breastfeeding to 12 months3450002160001840001530001230009600072000

    note that services matching WHO guidelines means that women either receive ART (if eligible) or they receive triple ARVs during pregnacy and breastfeeding

    25 countries

    No ARV prophylaxis for PMTCT

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, and eliminate unmet need for family planning

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, eliminate unmet need for family planning, restrict breastfeeding to 12 months

    Estimated New HIV infections among children: Different scenarios for 25 countries

    Nigeria

    No ARV prophylaxis for PMTCT

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART

    Estimated New HIV infections among children: Different scenarios for 25 countries

    South Africa

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines

    Estimated New HIV infections among children: Different scenarios for 25 countries

    Individual prongs

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, and eliminate unmet need for family planning

    Estimated New HIV infections among children: Different scenarios for 25 countries

    Mothers need art ind prongs

    Constant 2009 coverage of ARV prophylaxis and ART

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, and eliminate unmet need for family planning

    90% of women reached with services matching WHO guidelines, incidence reduced by 50%, eliminate unmet need for family planning, restrict breastfeeding to 12 months

    Estimated New HIV infections among children: Different scenarios for 25 countries

    Nigeria

    20082009201020112012201320142015

    Number of women in need

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)204,000207,700212,400216,800221,200225,300227,400

    Intervention scenario204,000207,700206,800204,500199,500191,200180,800

    Number of new HIV infections, reproductive age women

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)155,400157,900158,900159,900160,900161,800162,700

    Intervention scenario155,400157,900145,800133,100119,600105,40090,300

    Contraceptive prevalence rate (%)

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)18202224262931

    Intervention scenario18202428333741

    Number of women on ARV or ART

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)

    Single0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

    Dual34,50034,50034,50034,50034,50034,50034,500

    Triple10,22310,22310,22310,22310,22310,22310,223

    Intervention scenario

    Triple10,22362,30086,800110,400131,700149,100162,700

    Number of new child infections due to MTCT

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)64,70466,02767,66169,23170,76972,21573,052

    Intervention scenario64,70453,19146,17839,15632,04425,03319,2060.70

    MTCT transmission rate (%)

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)0.320.320.320.320.320.320.32

    Intervention scenario0.320.260.220.190.160.130.11

    Prongs 1,2,3 and BF

    Number of new child infections due to MTCT66706647045173544134365252887721398151940.77220.7652

    Transmission rate33.3%31.7%24.9%21.3%17.9%14.5%11.2%8.4%

    HIV+PW200160204011207660206769204522199507191214180825

    Contraceptive prevalence rate2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

    2009 level5.517.048.579.911.2312.5714.115.2416.5718.2920.3922.324.3926.4928.5930.88

    interventions5.517.048.579.911.2312.5714.115.2416.5718.2920.3924.4328.4732.5236.5640.6

    2009 scenario

    Prongs 1 and 2

    Nigeria: Number of new HIV infections among women 15-49

    2009 scenario

    Prongs 1 and 2

    Percent

    Nigeria: Contraceptive prevalence rate

    2009 scenario

    Prongs 1 and 2

    Nigeria: HIV+ pregnant women

    South Africa

    20092009201020112012201320142015

    Number of women in need

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)212,743211,242210,171208,079206,001204,832202,905

    Intervention scenario (P1,2,3)213,000211,000193,000174,000154,000134,000113,000

    Number of new HIV infections, reproductive age women

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)233,000235,000235,000235,000233,000231,000229,000

    Intervention scenario (P1,2,3)233,000235,000213,000190,000168,000145,000122,000

    Contraceptive prevalence rate (%)

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)62626363636464

    Intervention scenario (P1,2,3)62626568717476

    Number of women on ARV or ART

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)

    Single29,78430,41930,26529,96329,66429,49629,218

    Dual135,000134,000134,000132,000131,000130,000129,000

    Triple21,27421,12421,01720,80820,60020,48320,291

    Intervention scenario (P1,2,3)186,058

    Triple21,274190,000176,000160,000143,000126,000107,000

    Number of new child infections due to MTCT

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)40,50740,23840,03239,68039,30039,05338,719

    Intervention scenario (P1,2,3)41,00018,00017,00015,00013,00011,0009,000

    MTCT transmission rate (%)0.1904034445

    Base scenario (2009 coverage)0.190.190.190.190.190.190.19

    Intervention scenario (P1,2,3)0.190.090.090.090.090.080.08

    P1,2,3 and BF

    Number of new child infections due to MTCT48078405071788916366145441264510780894181.4%77.9%

    Transmission rate22.4%19.0%8.5%8.5%8.4%8.2%8.1%7.9%

    HIV+PW214798212737211236193235174144154132133709112588

    Contraceptive prevalence rate2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

    2009 level57.2957.5557.9458.345959.6660.3160.8461.562.03626363636464

    interventions57.2957.5557.9458.345959.6660.3160.8461.562.03626568717476

    2009 scenario

    Prongs 1 and 2

    South Africa: Number of new HIV infections among women 15-49

    2009 scenario

    Prongs 1 and 2

    Percent

    South Africa: Contraceptive prevalence rate

    2009 scenario

    Prongs 1 and 2

    South Africa: HIV+ pregnant women

    South AfricaNigeria

    New HIV infections (0-14) - (Total) (Male+Female)New HIV infections (0-14) - (Total) (Male+Female)

    2009 coverageEliminate Unmet needCut incidence by 50%Effective ARV/ARTCombined2009 coverageEliminate Unmet needCut incidence by 50%Effective ARV/ARTCombined

    19902,1752,1752,1752,1752175199014,34614,34614,34714,34614346

    19913,4883,4883,4883,4883488199126,87426,87426,87626,87426874

    19925,5435,5435,5435,5435543199241,52941,52941,53241,52941529

    19938,6538,6538,6538,6538653199353,29653,29653,30053,29653296

    199413,19713,19713,19713,19713197199460,81660,81660,82060,81660816

    199519,51919,51919,51919,51919519199565,42565,42565,43065,42565425

    199627,51227,51227,51227,51127511199668,27568,27568,28068,27568275

    199736,67036,67036,67036,66936669199769,92269,92269,92769,92269922

    199845,75345,75345,75345,75245752199870,38470,38470,39070,38470384

    199954,07854,07854,07854,07654076199970,07470,07470,08070,07470074

    200061,41961,41961,41961,41761417200069,45769,45769,46369,4576