making better decisions: operational research

Making Better Decisions: Operational Research

Daniel Sandars, BSc (Hons) MSc AFORS MIAgrM:CEnv

Research Fellow, Cranfield University

Denbigh School, Wednesday 6th July 2016

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My Message


Why? It is useful

•As a Decisions Professional aka Operational Researcher, or

• In every profession and vocation due to need for good decisions skills, and

•Good decision skills are good life skills


Career Attributes

1. Financial security

2. Growth opportunities

3. Enjoyment

4. Variety & Flexibilty


Me as AFORS MIAgrM:CEnv

ResearchFellow

1995+

1990 BSc Agriculture

1994 MSc Applied

Environmental Science

2004 MSc Operational

Research


How do you choose?

1. Peer pressure?

2. Rule of thumb?

3. Gut Instinct?

4. Pseudo science?

5. Methodically/ Scientifically?


Problem Solving Cycle

Problem?

Evidence & options

Analyse

Decide

Act

Evaluate & Learn


Operational Research

∞Operational Research (O.R.) is the application of mathematical methods to tackle real-life problems associated with decision-making in businesses and other enterprises.

∞O.R. combines

to provide the means for making more informed and better decisions.

A way of thinking & communicating + Analytical

techniques


Origins of O.R.

∞World War II

Video Courtesy of : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2GdWgzXrys

√ German U-Boats targeted merchant ships bound for Britain, which were loaded with important goods.

√ The British Royal Navy decided to respond by deploying warships within convoys of merchant ships in order to offer vital protection.


Origins of O.R.

∞ Travel faster than large convoys and may evade the threat of combat

∞ Slower than a small convoy but heavily armed to fight off an attack


Origins of O.R.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

% R

ATE

OF

SUC

CES

S

NUMBER OF WARSHIPS IN CONVOY

Bullet holes and Bombers

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When is O.R. useful?

∞ When a decision is complex or it’s not clear what the main

problem is

∞ When it’s uncertain what the outcome of different actions will

be

∞ When you don’t know how well things are working or think they

could work better

∞ When you are worried about risks

∞ When you need to take account of the views of different

stakeholder groups


How is O.R. useful?

∞Optimisation is a way to solve problems in which one seeks to achieve the best outcome.

∞Simulation allows you to try out different approaches by simulating events numerous times and answer the “What if…?” question.

∞Queuing theory is used to approximate a real queuing situation or system, so the queuing behaviour can be analysed mathematically.

∞Other techniques include:

Forecasting

Heuristics

Data Mining

Soft Systems Methodology

StatisticsMulti-Criteria Methods Cognitive Mapping

System Dynamics


Is O.R. rewarding?

∞Starting Salaries £20,000-28,000

∞Senior Operational Researchers £40,000 -

£80,000

∞Self-employed or top Consultants

£100,000+


Practical Exercise

∞ 1st person in the line, look at the person on your left.

∞ If you are taller, swap.

∞ 2nd person in the line, look at the person on your left.


∞ 3rd person in the line, look at the person on your left.


∞ And so on…until you reach the end of the line.

∞ The last person in the line should now be the tallest and can turn

around.

∞ Start again. The end of the line is the person next to someone who

has turned around.

Bubble Sort Dance

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Real-life applications of maths


Cost of computer memory


Speed of computers


Growth of big data


What makes O.R. Fun?

•Mathematical aptitude?

• Is your brain Ravenous?• Thirst for gleaning knowledge and

understanding out of data?• Hunger for better innovative solutions to

puzzles

•Make the world a better place?


What makes O.R. Fun?


Societal challenges

1. Health, demographics changes and well being2. Food security, sustainable agriculture, marine and

maritime research and the bio-economy3. Secure, clean and efficient energy4. Smart, green and integrated transport5. Climate action and resource efficiency including raw

materials6. Inclusive, innovative and secure societies7. Secure societies – protecting freedom and security of

Europe and its citizens



∞ O.R. is the maths inside Supermarkets√ Determining the number of staff needed

on checkouts and at when√ Calculating order quantities and delivery

times√ Understanding people’s buying patterns



∞ O.R. is the maths inside Sport√ One day cricket√ Scheduling football games√ Designing and building a new stadium

∞ Case Study: Formula One√ The Challenge

≥ Determine optimal pit stop strategy

√ The O.R. Solution≥ Game theory and simulation

√ The Value≥ Ability to account for influential

factors and increase probability of winning the race



∞ Other examples include:

√ Your Phone Tariff

√ Your Local Government

√ Your Gas Supply

√ Your Local Factory

√ Your Airline Flight

√ Your Pint of Milk

√ Your Doctor’s Surgery

√ Your Wages


Where can O.R. take you?

∞ O.R. is an evolving discipline because the world is ever-changing.

O.R. departments are firmly embedded within large businesses

across most industries:

√ Manufacturing

√ Transport

√ Retailing

√ Marketing

√ Financial Sector

√ Service Sector

√ Local/Central Government


Where can O.R. take you?

∞ O.R. is a profession where initiative, creativity and enthusiasm are equally as important as technical ability. There is great scope for you to make your mark and, consequently, your future is very much in your own hands.

∞ O.R. teams are involved in projects which draw on a wide range of business skills and have dealings with anyone from shop floor to boardroom.

∞ As an Operational Researcher you will have the opportunity to undertake a variety of roles including:

√ Analytical/consultancy√ Project management√ General management√ Lecturer/researcher


Interested?

∞ Next steps…

√ Maths GCSE and A Level, Further Maths may be required at university

√ Obtain a good classification in a numerate degree

√ Join The OR Society – Student Membership is free!

√ A Master’s in O.R. is often desirable, although not always essential

√ Gain work experience while studying, e.g. via a summer placement or

voluntary work during studies


Take Away Points

Decision skills are

everywhere

Flexibility and

Variety

Financial security

and growth

Fun


Interested?

∞ Find out more…

√ www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk

√ www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk

√ www.TheORSociety.com

∞ Get in touch…

√ Education Officer

Seymour House, 12 Edward Street, Birmingham, B1 2RX

+44 (0)121 233 9300

[email protected]

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http://www.scienceofbetter.co.uk/

http://www.theorsociety.com/

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