make wise decisions by seeing the truth: workshop slides
TRANSCRIPT
Make Wise Decisions by
Seeing the Truth
Gleb Tsipursky, PhD
Going with your gut?
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Subconscious
Automatic
Fast
Intuitive
Emotional
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Conscious
Mindful
Slow
Reasoning
Logical
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Automatic thoughts & feelings
Subconscious beliefs & assumptions
Habits
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Choosing to pay attention
Our sense of Self
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Elephant
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Elephant Rider
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Uses little energy
Runs all the time
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Uses a lot of energy
Runs in low-effort mode
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 2 IS ACTIVATED WHEN…
System 1 runs into difficulty
Learning new information
Awareness of potential for error
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Usually makes good decisions
Errors are often predictable:
• emotional issues
• assessing probabilities
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Can prevent System 1 errors
Needs to be activated first
Requires intentional focus
STRATEGIES
• Use this knowledge to our advantage!
• Find ways to activate System 2 when we need it most
• Train the elephant rider
• Make changes to System 1
• Train the elephant
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Why did THEY do it?
Why did YOU do it?
Fundamental Attribution Error
We tend to interpret the actions of others more harshly than our own.
We tend to judge the personality of others based on very limited information.
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Should we always pay attention?
Attentional Bias
We tend to pay attention to factors that appeal to our emotions (especially negative emotions).
STRATEGIES
Broad Framework: Gaining Agency
Evaluating ourselves and our environment
Developing long-term goals
Implementing effective strategies to reach our goals
Continuously reassessing our strategies and goals
STRATEGIES
The Map and the Territory
Our “map” of the world doesn’t fully reflect reality.
We can focus on improving our “map” to make it more accurate.
STRATEGIES
I Notice I’m Confused
I Notice I’m Surprised
Become aware of when you feel confused or surprised.
Your “map” probably does not match the reality of the situation.
STRATEGIES
Bad News is Good News
If something bad already happened, it’s better to know about it.
When you know what went wrong, you can find a way to address the situation or prevent it from happening in the future.
STRATEGIES
Updating Beliefs
If we discover that we are confused or surprised, or that we made a mistake, it’s important to update our beliefs about a situation.
Be a flip-flopper! It can prevent you from making mistakes.
STRATEGIES
Experimental Attitude
Update your “map” and update your beliefs.
Conduct thought experiments (or actual experiments) to learn about the world.
REMEMBERING AND APPLYING STRATEGIES
• Make an intentional decision to apply these strategies
• Make reminders to yourself to use these strategies
• Train subconscious System 1 to embrace using these strategies through positive reinforcement
• Speak the language of System 1: emotions• Associate positive thoughts and emotions with
every time you use the strategies successfully
RESOURCES
Center for Applied Rationality
www.cfar.org
Columbus Rationality Facebook group
http://ow.ly/vfBdO
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
www.hpmor.com
Less Wrong
www.lesswrong.com
Intentional Decision Making
Making Decisions to Reach Your Goals
Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA
DECISIONS
How do we make them?
What tools can we use
to do better?
MAKING DECISIONS
• Past
• What happened?• How did you think and feel about it?
• Future
• What do you want?• Experiment with different futures
• Present
• Make decisions to move toward Future
MAKING DECISIONS
What is a good decision?
• Depends on how decision was made• Use probability to make better
decision
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Subconscious
Automatic
Fast
Intuitive
Emotional
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Conscious
Mindful
Slow
Reasoning
Logical
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Automatic thoughts & feelings
Subconscious beliefs & assumptions
Habits
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Choosing to pay attention
Our sense of Self
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Elephant
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Elephant Rider
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Uses little energy
Runs all the time
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Uses a lot of energy
Runs in low-effort mode
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 2 IS ACTIVATED WHEN…
System 1 runs into difficulty
Learning new information
Awareness of potential for error
HOW DOES OUR MIND WORK?
SYSTEM 1
AUTOPILOT
Usually makes good decisions
Errors are often predictable:
• emotional issues
• assessing probabilities
SYSTEM 2
INTENTIONAL
Can prevent System 1 errors
Needs to be activated first
Requires intentional focus
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Wishful thinking.
Planning Fallacy
We intuitively assume that everything will go perfectly according to plan.
We often don’t plan for extra time and resources to be prepared for possibility of unforeseen events.
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Throwing good money after bad.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
If we invested a lot into getting something, we tend to be reluctant to give it up.
PREDICTABLE ERRORS
Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die.
Hyperbolic Discounting
We tend to prefer smaller payoffs now over larger payoffs later.
STRATEGIES
Focus on Your Long-Term Goals
Reframe Your Perspective
• Ask Why? Ask Why Not?
• Outside perspective
• Be self-aware
STRATEGIES
Future Scenario method
• Think of what “might” happen in the future
• How likely or unlikely are these possibilities?
• Focus on undesirable outcomes
• What might cause them?• How can you prepare?
RESOURCES
Intentional Insights
www.intentionalinsights.org
Center for Applied Rationality
www.cfar.org
Columbus Rationality Facebook group
http://ow.ly/vfBdO
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
www.hpmor.com
Less Wrong
www.lesswrong.com