maize pathways workshop presentation 2: mcm findings

Environmental Change and Maize

Innovation in Kenya:

Exploring pathways in and out of maize

Findings from a Multicriteria Mapping Study

Presentation 2 of 3

National Dissemination Workshop

Hilton Hotel, Nairobi – 22 March 2010

STEPS Kenya Partners:

ACTS – African Centre for Technology Studies

CABE – Centre for African Bio-Entrepreneurship

Tegemeo Institute, Egerton University

IDS – Institute of Development Studies, UK

SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research,

University of Sussex, UK

• What we did

– 23 interviews conducted in November 2009

– Some individual, Some in groups

– Nairobi-based informants and Sakai Farmers

Multicriteria Mapping (MCM) Overview

2. Develop a

set of criteria

5. Reflect on

outcome

1. Discuss

pathways

3. Score pathways

under each

criterion; optimistic

& pessimistic

scores to reflect

uncertainty

4. Assign

weight to

each criterion

MCM Overview

• What we did




• Conducting the MCM interviews – Nine pathways evaluated discussing agricultural pathways ‘in

and out of maize’

– 147 different and unique criteria defined by informants to evaluate the pathways

• Analysing the MCM data– Identify groups of informants

– Identify groups of criteria

– Evaluate pathway performance rankings

– Analyse the qualitative information provided in the assessments


• What we did




• Conducting the MCM interviews

– Nine pathways evaluated discussing agricultural pathways ‘in and out of maize’

– 147 different and unique criteria defined by informants to evaluate the pathways

• Analysing the MCM data– Identify groups of informants

– Identify sets of criteria

– Evaluate pathway performance rankings

– Analyse the qualitative information provided in the assessments


Groups of informants

1. Sakai Farmers (11 interviews)

a) Gender

b) Income level

2. Nairobi-based Informants (12 interviews)

a) Public sector officials

b) Commercially oriented

c) Science and technology institutes

d) Biotechnology focus

Sets of criteria: Macro and Micro Issues

• Economic and Market Issues 71 criteria– Resource costs 23 criteria

– Availability and access to resources 30 criteria

– Market aspects 18 criteria

• Stress Tolerance Issues 43 criteria– Water use 17 criteria

– Pests and disease resistance 14 criteria

– Suitability of crop to agro-ecological conditions 12 criteria

• Social, Political & Cultural Issues 33 criteria– Knowledge and skills 14 criteria

– Social and cultural 9 criteria

– Food security 10 criteria

Evaluating pathway ‘performance rankings’

• Performance rankings are literal ‘maps’ of pathway scores

• Averaged across groups of stakeholder & sets of criteria

(issues)

• High end of range indicates average optimistic scores

• Low end of range indicates average pessimistic scores

• Length of range (or bar) indicates uncertainty & ambiguity

expressed

– Uncertainty is expressed by individuals in a stakeholder group

– Ambiguity is the result of disagreement between stakeholders

Qualitative analysis of the pathway evaluations

• Used to identify groups of stakeholders

with shared points of view

• Used to group criteria according to shared

themes

• Clarifies the reasons for convergence and

divergence in the pathways performance

rankings

Pathways out of maize: Orphans or siblings?

Performance rankings for low and high income Sakai farmers against a set of economic

and market criteria show different perceptions of barriers based on income level

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Performance Rankings

Alternative staples for subsistence

Alternative staples for market

Local improvement of local maize seed

Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops)

Assisted seed multiplication (maize)

Individual high-value crop commercialization

Group-based high-value crop commercialization

Commercial delivery of new maize varieties

Public delivery of new maize varieties










Performance Rankings for Low income and High income Sakai Farmers under Economic and Market Issues

Low income Sakai

farmers

(3 interview s)

Economic &

market issues (12

criteria)

High income Sakai

farmers

(8 interview s)

Economic &

market issues (28

criteria)

Pathways out of maize: Orphans or siblings?

Performance rankings for different groups of stakeholders shows a surprising

amount of optimism about alternative dryland staple crops, especially under a set of

stress tolerance criteria

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60


Alternative staples for subsistenceAlternative staples for market

Local improvement of local maize seedAssisted seed multiplication (alternative crops)

Assisted seed multiplication (maize)Individual high-value crop commercialization

Group-based high-value crop commercializationCommercial delivery of new maize varieties












Performance Rankings for Sakai Farmers, Biotechnology Focused, and Public Sector Seed Perspectives under Stress Tolerance Issues

Sakai Farmers

(11 interviews)

Stress Tolerance

issues (22 criteria)

Biotech Focus

(5 interviews)

Stress tolerance

issues (9 criteria)

Public sector

(3 interviews)

Stress tolerance

issues (8

criteria)

Getting the value without the high risk?

Performance rankings show preference for group-based approaches

and some variation in performance based on income level

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100






















Performance Rankings for Sakai farmers (female), Sakai farmers (male), Sakai farmers (low income) and Sakai farmers (high income)

Low income

Sakai farmers

(3 interview s)

High income

Sakai farmers

(8 interview s)

Female Sakai

farmers

(5 interview s)

Male Sakai

farmers

(6 interview s)

l = 25

l = 4

Pathways out of maize: Getting the value without the high risk?

Performance rankings show perceptions of economic and market

barriers differ based on income level

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Performance Rankings





















Performance Rankings for Sakai farmers (low and high income) under 'availability & access to resources' and 'resource costs' issues

Low income Sakai farmers

(3 interview s)

Resource costs issues

(4 criteria)

High income Sakai farmers

(8 interview s)

Resource costs issues

(10 criteria)


(2 interview s)

Availability and access to

resources issues

(5 criteria)


(6 interview s)

Availability and access to

resources issues

(16 criteria)

Pathways out of maize: Getting the value without the high risk?

Performance rankings show the real deal-breaker might be water

0 5 10 15 20 25 30






















Performance Rankings for Sakai farmers (low and high income) under water and pest and disease resistance issues


(3 interviews)

Pest & disease resistance

issues (3 criteria)


(7 interviews)

Pest & disease resistance

issues (7 criteria)


(3 interviews)

Water issues (3 criteria)


(7 interviews)

Water issues (7 criteria)

l = 6.5

l = 3

Pathways in maize: Living in parallel worlds?

Performance rankings for low and high income farmers shows different

perceptions of uncertainty based on wealth

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100




















Performance Rankings for Sakai farmers (low Income) and Sakai farmers (high income)

Low income

Sakai farmers

(3 interviews)

High income

Sakai farmers

(8 interviews)

l = 42

l = 22

Pathways in maize: Living in parallel worlds?

Performance rankings for different groups of Nairobi-based informants

show assisted seed pathways are ‘consistent’ performers

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100



Alternative staples for marketLocal improvement of local maize seed









Individual high-value crop commercializationGroup-based high-value crop commercialization




Alternative staples for marketLocal improvement of local maize seed

Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops)Assisted seed multiplication (maize)




Performance Rankings for Science and Technology Institute Managers, Biotechnology Focused, and Commercially Oriented Perspectives

S&T Institutes

(5 interview s)

Biotech Focus

(5 interview s)

Commercially

Oriented

(5 interview s)

Pathways in maize:

Performance rankings for groups of Nairobi-based informants show a

variety of high performing pathways, but rarely high maize options

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100






















Performance Rankings for Public sector, S&T Institutes, Commercially oriented and Biotechnology-focussed perspectives

S&T Institutes

(5 interview s)

Biotech Focus

(5 interview s)

Commercially

Oriented

(5 interview s)

Public sector

off icials

(3 interview s)

Pathways in maize:

Sakai farmer performance rankings show a preference for local maize,

not new maize

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100






Commercial delivery of new maize varietiesPublic delivery of new maize varieties








Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops)Assisted seed multiplication (maize)



Performance Rankings for Sakai Farmers (all) Sakai Farmers (Low Income) and Sakai High Income Farmers

Sakai Farmers (all)

11 interview s

Sakai Farmers

(low income)

3 interview s

Sakai Farmers

(high income)

8 interview s

Pathways in maize: Maize Security ≠ Food Security

Performance rankings show that the local maize pathways perform well under

economic and market criteria, but less well under sets of stress tolerance criteria

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

















Performance Rankings for Sakai Farmers under Economic and Market, Stress Tolerance and Social/Political/Cultural Issues

Sakai Farmers

(11 interview s)

Economic and market

issues

(40 criteria)

Sakai Farmers

(11 interview s)

Stress tolerance

issues

(22 criteria)

Sakai Farmers

(11 interview s)

Social/political/

cultural issues

(12 criteria)

Pathways in maize: Maize Security ≠ Food Security

Performance rankings for groups of Nairobi-based informants against a set of

stress tolerance criteria show a higher performance for new maize varieties

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Performance Rank ings





















Performance Rankings for Public sector, S&T Institutes, Commercially oriented and Biotechnology-focussed perspectives under Stress tolerance issues

S&T Institutes

(5 interview s)

9 criteria

Biotech Focus

(5 interview s)

9 criteria

Commercially

Oriented

(5 interview s)

9 criteria

Public sector

off icials

(3 interview s)

8 criteria

What does this mean for policy and

practice?

maize pathways workshop presentation 2: mcm findings

Education