mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: a survey

11
Journal of Forecasting, Val. 5, 127-137 (1986) Mainframe Multipurpose Forecasting Software: A Survey ESSAM MAHMOUD' University of Michigan-Flint, U.S.A. GlLLlAN RICE University of Michigan-Flint, U.S.A. VICTOR E. McGEE Dartmouth College, U.S.A. CHRIS BEAUMONT London Business School, U. K. * Address for correspondence: Essam Mahmoud, School of Management, University of Michigan-Flint. Michigan 48508-2186, U.S.A. 0277- 6693/86/020127-11$05.50 Received December 1985 KJ 1986 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Page 1: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

Journal of Forecasting, Val. 5 , 127-137 (1986)

Mainframe Multipurpose Forecasting Software: A Survey

ESSAM MAHMOUD' University of Michigan-Flint, U.S.A.

GlLLlAN RICE University of Michigan-Flint, U.S.A.

VICTOR E. McGEE Dartmouth College, U.S.A.

CHRIS BEAUMONT London Business School, U. K.

* Address for correspondence: Essam Mahmoud, School of Management, University of Michigan-Flint. Michigan 48508-2186, U.S.A. 0277- 6693/86/020127-11$05.50 Received December 1985 KJ 1986 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Page 2: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

CA

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IBM

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ary

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lect

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ret

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sum

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upda

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daily

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clud

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form

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) ba

tch

9th

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his

tori

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data

gat

here

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St

atis

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ada.

It

is us

ed p

rim

arily

for

te

achi

ng a

nd r

esea

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and

is on

ly u

pdat

ed

quar

terl

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pplic

atio

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nclu

de ti

me-

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Inte

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ting;

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phic

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plot

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asic

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sign

ific

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terv

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stim

ates

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alys

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f va

rian

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step

wis

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ime

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Page 3: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

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and

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a w

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-sec

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Box

-Jen

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; m

odem

sea

sona

l an

d ca

lend

ar a

djus

tmen

t too

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oint

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d qu

alita

tive-

choi

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stim

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gori

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o-w

ay A

NO

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co

ntin

genc

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and

in

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tech

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Dat

abas

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port

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ant

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IME

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time

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terp

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to c

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ll th

e st

anda

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ead,

la

g an

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ovin

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ffer

ence

s typ

e fu

nctio

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expo

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moo

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g, cu

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fittin

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d fo

reca

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Bat

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Inte

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Inte

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Inte

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and

batc

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FOR

TR

AN

IV

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M: 3

6017

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me

IBM

as

sem

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2 IO

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plus

per

sona

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mpu

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, R

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Sha

ck,

App

le, B

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rs

IBM

370

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0 se

ries

N/A

Page 4: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

W

0

Pack

age

Feat

ures

Nam

e Su

p p I i e r

Func

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s M

ode

Har

dwar

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tter

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ts u

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gres

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or

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atis

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stat

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of v

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gres

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udin

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mm

on

elem

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d sm

ooth

ing

proc

edur

es.

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ress

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anal

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inc

ludi

ng a

utom

atic

re

gres

sion

. for

war

d st

epw

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regr

essi

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back

war

d st

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utom

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ch

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sidu

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resi

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ana

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ime

seri

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RIM

A p

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ular

ana

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mpl

e st

atis

tics:

pr

obab

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cal

cula

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. Gra

phic

al d

ata

disp

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plot

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Incl

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ana

lysi

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var

ianc

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iffe

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A s

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nsfo

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ulat

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rela

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reg

ress

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and

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isri

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fore

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use

s En

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FO

RT

RA

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Inte

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Hew

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of

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clip

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MV

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P-

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Page 5: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

MIC

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anap

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, IN

462

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) 253

4828

Min

itab

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ect,

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orat

ory,

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nive

rsity

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k,

PA 1

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, U.S

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(814

) 865

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5

Am

eric

an S

oftw

are,

44

3 E.

Pac

es F

erry

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d,

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nta,

GA

303

05,

U.S

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(404) 2

6143

81

Num

eric

al A

lgor

ithm

s G

roup

Inc.

, 1 I

3 I W

arre

n,

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ners

Gro

ve, I

L 6

0515

, U

.S.A

. (3

12) 9

71-2

337

US

. Dep

artm

ent

of

Com

mer

ce,

Nat

iona

l Tec

hnic

al

Info

rmat

ion

Serv

ice,

O

ffice

of

Dat

a B

ase

Serv

ices

, 52

85 P

ort

Roy

al R

oad,

Sp

ringf

ield

, VA

22 I

6 I,

U.S

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(703

) 487

4807

Mic

ropr

oces

sor

stat

istic

al p

acka

ge i

nclu

des

desc

riptiv

e st

atis

tics,

fre

quen

cy

dist

ribut

ion.

ana

lysi

s of

var

ianc

e.

regr

essi

on, n

on-p

aram

etri

c st

atis

tics,

pr

obab

ility

dis

trib

utio

ns a

nd C

hi-s

quar

e te

sts.

syst

em o

rigin

ally

dev

elop

ed f

or u

se b

y st

uden

ts i

n in

trod

ucto

ry s

tatis

tics c

ours

es.

Feat

ures

incl

ude

plot

ting,

dat

a ed

iting

, ta

ble

mak

ing

incl

udin

g cr

oss-

tabu

latio

n,

regr

essi

on a

naly

sis,

ana

lysi

s of

var

ianc

e,

non-

para

met

ric

met

hods

, ex

plor

ator

y da

ta

anal

ysis

pro

cedu

res,

Box

-Jen

kins

tim

e se

ries,

mat

rix o

pera

tions

, mac

ro a

nd

loop

ing

capa

bilit

ies

and

on-l

ine

HE

LP

A g

ener

al p

urpo

se s

tatis

tical

com

putin

g

Man

ufac

turi

ng R

esou

rce

Plan

ning

has

the

capa

bilit

y to

con

vert

sal

es fo

reca

sts

and/

ot

actu

al c

usto

mer

ord

ers

into

a m

aste

r sc

hedu

le b

y co

mbi

ning

sta

tistic

al a

nd

expe

ditin

g m

etho

ds.

subr

outin

es,

desi

gned

to a

ssis

t in

sol

ving

a

wid

e ra

nge

of m

athe

mat

ical

and

sta

tistic

al

prob

lem

s. F

eatu

res

incl

ude

the

stat

istic

al

pack

ages

GL

IM, a

sys

tem

for

gene

raliz

ed

linea

r in

tera

ctiv

e m

odel

ling,

GE

NST

AT

, a

pow

erfu

l gen

eral

pur

pose

sta

tistic

al sy

stem

an

d T

SA, a

tim

e se

ries a

naly

sis

syst

em.

Incl

udes

tim

e se

ries d

ata

files

, mod

ellin

g an

d si

mul

atio

n pr

ogra

ms,

gra

phic

s.

A t

ailo

red

colle

ctio

n of

com

pute

r

Inte

ract

ive

BA

SIC

N

orth

Sta

r: a

ll 8K

mod

els

Inte

ract

ive

and

batc

h

Inte

ract

ive

or

batc

h

Inte

ract

ive

NIA

FOR

TR

AN

(I 5

0 co

mm

ands

)

FOR

TR

AN

, Alg

ol

60 a

nd A

lgol

68

N /A

Bur

roug

hs L

arge

50

0K-I

M (

can

Syst

ems,

Con

trol

be

ove

rlaye

d D

ata,

Dat

a in

to 6

4K)

Gen

eral

Ecl

ipse

, H

arri

s, H

P-30

00.

IBM

, IC

L 2

900,

LS

I- I I

, NO

RD

, PD

P-I I

, Pr

ime,

Sp

erry

Uni

vac

1100

, Ter

ak, V

AX

, D

EC

Sys

tem

10

and

20, H

oney

wel

l, Pe

rkin

-Elm

er,

Tan

dem

, Tex

as

Inst

rum

ents

, Wan

g an

d ot

hers

(c

onve

rsio

n w

ork

in p

rogr

ess)

Hew

lett-

Pack

ard,

H

oney

wel

l, U

niva

c.

Wan

g an

d ot

hers

IBM

, Bur

roug

hs,

N/A

All

the

maj

or la

rge

N/A

an

d m

ediu

m-s

ized

m

achi

nes

in

gene

ral u

se, a

nd

man

y of

the

fa

mili

es o

f m

ini-

com

pute

rs

N /A

N

IA

h 3 a

2

(con

tinue

d) - z

Page 6: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

Pack

age

Feat

ures

Nam

e Su

pplie

r Fu

nctio

ns

OM

NIT

AB

80

Mrs

. Alic

e D

ugan

, N

atio

nal

Bur

eau

Of

Stan

dard

s,

A32

3. P

hysi

c B

uild

ing,

W

ashi

ngto

n, D

C 2

0234

, U

.S.A

.

OSl

RlS

I 11

/1 1

00

Chi

Com

pute

r Pro

duct

s,

I100

0 C

edar

Ave

nue,

C

leve

land

, OH

441

06,

U.S

.A.

(216

) 229

-640

0

OSI

RIS

IV

PAC

KA

GE

X

PMM

The

Ins

titut

e fo

r So

cial

Surv

ey R

esea

rch

Cen

tre,

C

ompu

ter

Supp

ort G

roup

, U

nive

rsity

of

Mic

higa

n,

P.O

. Box

124

8,

Ann

Arb

or,

MI

4810

6,

U.S

.A.

Dat

aski

l L

td.,

12-1

8 C

row

n St

reet

, R

eadi

ng,

Ber

kshi

re,

RG

I 2H

P, U

.K.

Am

eric

an S

oftw

are,

44

3 E

. Pac

es F

erry

Roa

d,

Atla

nta,

GA

303

05,

U.S

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(404

) 261

4381

Res

earc

h,

P-ST

AT

/P-S

TA

T 8

P-

STA

T,

Inc.

, P.

O.

Box

285,

Pr

ince

ton,

NJ

0854

0,

UX

A

(609

) 92

49

100

Acc

epts

inst

ruct

ions

in

the

user

's ow

n na

tive

lang

uage

. St

atis

tical

ana

lysi

s in

clud

es

prob

abili

ty d

ensi

ties,

ana

lysi

s of

var

ianc

e,

corr

elat

ion

anal

ysis

, cro

ss t

abul

atio

n,

cont

inge

ncy

tabl

e an

alys

is a

nd r

egre

ssio

n.

Ext

ensi

ve p

lotti

ng.

Stat

istic

al a

naly

sis

orig

inal

ly d

evel

oped

as

a to

ol f

or t

he s

ocia

l sci

ence

s. In

clud

es a

se

arch

str

ateg

y fo

r mod

el f

ittin

g, f

acto

r an

alys

is, s

tepw

ise

regr

essi

on a

nd a

naly

sis

of v

aria

nce.

Dat

a m

anag

emen

t, re

port

ing.

asso

ciat

ed s

tatis

tics,

mul

tiple

and

di

chot

omou

s re

gres

sion

, fac

tor

anal

ysis

, cl

uste

r an

alys

is, a

naly

sis

of v

aria

nce,

m

ultiv

aria

te a

naly

sis

of n

omin

al a

nd

ordi

nal d

ata,

rep

licat

ed r

egre

ssio

ns.

Uni

vari

ate

and

biva

riat

e fr

eque

ncie

s an

d

Incl

udes

sum

mar

y st

atis

tics,

sig

nifi

canc

e te

sts,

ana

lysi

s of

var

ianc

e, m

ultip

le,

poly

nom

ial

and

step

wis

e re

gres

sion

, hi

stog

ram

dis

play

and

plo

tting

fac

ilitie

s

Purc

hasi

ng a

nd M

ater

ials

Man

agem

ent

cons

ists

of

five

func

tiona

l, st

and-

alon

e sy

stem

s de

sign

ed to

ope

rate

in a

sin

gle

or

mul

ti-co

mpa

ny,

mul

ti-lo

catio

n en

viro

nmen

t, in

rea

l-tim

e. T

he s

yste

ms

are

Mat

eria

l R

eque

st, P

urch

asin

g, I

nven

tory

C

ontr

ol &

Acc

ount

ing,

Pro

cure

men

t M

atch

ing,

and

Acc

ount

s Pa

yabl

e

man

agem

ent.

cros

s-ta

bula

tion

and

stat

istic

al a

naly

sis.

Fea

ture

s in

clud

e re

gres

sion

, cor

rela

tion,

inte

ract

ive

mul

tivar

iate

AN

OV

A,

expl

orat

ory

data

an

alys

is, r

-test

and

,f-t

est,

fact

or a

naly

sis.

di

scri

min

ant

anal

ysis

and

mat

rix

oper

atio

ns. T

abul

atio

ns, h

isto

gram

s,

freq

uenc

y di

stri

butio

ns.

A c

onve

rsat

iona

l co

mpu

ting

syst

em f

or d

ata

Mod

e

Inte

ract

ive

or

batc

h

Bat

ch

N1A

Inte

ract

ive

or

batc

h

Inte

ract

ive

Inte

ract

ive

or

batc

h

w

N

__.

Lan

guag

e H

ardw

are

Mem

ory

requ

ired

FOR

TR

AN

U

niva

c-11

08-1

110;

N

/A

3 T (P

FOR

T)

IBM

-433

1; C

DC

3:

Cyb

er 1

73; H

ewle

tt %

PDP

10; C

DC

- *rl

s Pa

ckar

d-H

P 30

00;

IBM

-158

; DE

C-

6600

m

FOR

TR

AN

, A

ssem

bler

6

Uni

vac:

110

0 se

ries

45

K

a

IBM

360

/370

; N

/A

FOR

TR

AN

IV

IB

M a

ssem

bler

A

MD

AH

L 4

70

Prim

arily

FO

RT

RA

N

ICL

290

0 se

ries

, 190

0 N

/A

with

min

imal

se

ries

, 290

3129

04.

asse

mbl

er

ME

29

N/A

IB

M, B

urro

ughs

, N

/A

Hew

lett-

Pack

ard,

H

oney

wel

l, U

niva

c,

Wan

g an

d ot

hers

FOR

TR

AN

D

ata

Gen

eral

N

/A

Eclip

se,

Bur

roug

hs

6700

i770

0, C

DC

C

yber

, DE

C 1

0,

20, H

arri

s,

Hon

eyw

ell,

IBM

, IC

L, N

CR

, N

OR

D,

Perk

in-

Elm

er 3

200,

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me,

SE

L C

once

pti3

2,

Uni

vac

1 I00

and

90

180,

Wic

at 1

50

bl

h,

Page 7: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

SAG

E

SAS

SCA

ST

AT

IST

ICA

L

SYST

EM

scss

C

ON

VE

RSA

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ION

AL

SY

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SOU

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SPIR

E

SAG

E D

AT

A, I

nc.,

104

Car

negi

e C

ente

r, Pr

ince

ton,

NJ

0854

0.

U.S

.A.

(609

) 924

- 300

0

SAS

Inst

itute

Inc

., Bo

x 80

00,

Car

y, N

C 2

751

I,

U.S

.A.

(919

) 467

-800

0

Scie

ntifi

c Com

putin

g A

ssoc

iate

s,

P.O

. B

ox 6

25,

Dek

alb,

IL

601

15,

U.S

.A.

SPSS

, Inc

., 444

N.

Mic

higa

n A

venu

e,

Suite

330

0,

Chi

cago

, IL

606

1 I,

U.S

.A.

(312

) 329

-240

0

Stat

istic

al

Serv

ices

/Com

putin

g Se

rvic

es O

ffic

e,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ill

inoi

s,

Urh

ana,

IL

618

01,

U.S

.A.

NIA

Dat

abas

es (e

cono

mlc

act

ivity

, com

mod

ity

Inte

ract

ive

pric

es, i

ndus

try i

ndic

ator

s, e

tc.)

and

an

econ

omet

ric p

acka

ge. I

nclu

des

stat

istic

al

anal

ysis

and

mod

ellin

g (f

orec

astin

g,

regr

essi

on, d

iagn

ostic

s).

man

agem

ent,

stat

istic

al a

naly

sis,

rep

ort

batc

h w

ritin

g, c

olou

r gr

aphi

cs, e

cono

met

ric

fore

cast

ing

and

mod

ellin

g. A

dditi

onal

fe

atur

es w

ith S

ASi

FSP

incl

ude

full

scre

en

entr

y, e

ditin

g, a

nd s

prea

dshe

et fi

nanc

ial

repo

rting

. Ove

r 60

pro

cedu

res,

e.g

. re

gres

sion

, ana

lysi

s of

var

ianc

e, f

acto

r an

alys

is.

Inte

grat

ed s

oftw

are

for

a w

ide

varie

ty o

f st

atis

tical

ana

lyse

s, i

nclu

ding

des

crip

tive

stat

istic

s, d

ata

plot

ting,

dat

a m

anip

ulat

ion

and

editi

ng, m

atrix

alg

ebra

, lin

ear

and

non-

linea

r re

gres

sion

, and

tim

e se

ries

anal

yses

(tim

e do

mai

n an

d fr

eque

ncy,

A

RIM

A, m

ultiv

aria

te, B

ox-J

enki

ns).

freq

uenc

y ta

bles

, cro

ss-t

abul

atio

n, 1

-test

s, Pe

arso

n pr

oduc

t-m

omen

t cor

rela

tion,

sc

atte

rgra

ms,

par

tial c

orre

latio

n, m

ultip

le

regr

essi

on a

nd f

acto

r an

alys

is.

An

inte

grat

ed s

yste

m in

clud

ing

data

In

tera

ctiv

e or

Inte

ract

ive

Con

vers

atio

nal s

tatis

tical

sys

tem

incl

udin

g In

tera

ctiv

e

Bas

ic s

tatis

tics.

Cor

rela

tion

anal

ysis

, mul

tiple

Pr

imar

ily b

atch

bu

t m

ay b

e ru

n in

an

inte

ract

ive

envi

ronm

ent

regr

essi

on, a

naly

sis

of v

aria

nce,

di

scrim

inan

t an

alys

is.

Eco

nom

etri

c an

alys

is in

clud

ing

redu

ced

form

and

re

sidu

al a

naly

sis,

res

trict

ed a

nd s

toch

astic

re

stric

ted

leas

t sq

uare

s. S

pect

ral a

naly

sis

incl

udin

g sa

mpl

e au

toco

vari

ance

and

au

toco

rrel

atio

ns, f

ast F

ouri

er t

rans

form

. Pl

ottin

g. M

atrix

alg

ebra

.

A s

vste

mat

ic u

roce

dure

for

ide

ntify

ing

NIA

.

-

Con

tact

Dr.

Har

old

E. K

lein

, rd

leva

nt e

n;iro

nmen

ts

for

stra

tegi

c D

ept.

of M

gmt.,

pl

anni

ng,

befo

re f

orec

astin

g.

Spea

kman

Hal

l, En

viro

nmen

tal

fact

or li

st g

ener

ates

R

oom

380

, en

viro

nmen

tal/s

trat

egic

plan

ning

link

age

Tem

ple

Uni

vers

ity,

stat

emen

ts f

or c

ompu

ter

anal

ysis

. M

atrix

Ph

ilade

lphi

a,

man

ipul

atio

n le

ads

to c

onst

ruct

ion

of f

low

PA

191

22, U

.S.A

. ch

art

diag

ram

s.

Men

u dr

iven

IB

M m

ainf

ram

e N!

A

PLII

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sem

bler

(no

D

ata

Gen

eral

I5

DK

co

mpi

lers

nee

ded)

Ec

lipse

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C

VA

X; I

BM

: 36

0137

0, 3

03X

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3x

x

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TR

AN

, as

sem

bler

IBM

434

1

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: 360

1370

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C:

170

byte

s D

EC

- D

EC

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20

FAX

; U

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urro

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900

Prim

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put

and

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300

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NIA

N

IA

NIA

Page 8: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

Pack

age

Feat

ures

Nam

e Su

pplie

r Fu

nctio

ns

Mod

e L

angu

age

SPSS

- I 1

SPSS

BA

TC

H

SYST

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Inc.

, 444

N. M

ichi

gan

Ave

nue.

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ite 3

300,

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hica

go, I

L 6

0611

, U

.S.A

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. Inc

., 44

4 M

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Ave

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ite 3

300,

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go, I

L 6

061 I

, U

.S.A

. (3

12) 3

29-2

400

Hew

lett-

Pack

ard,

15

01 P

age

Mill

Roa

d,

Palo

Alt

o, C

A 9

4304

. U

.S.A

. (4

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5615

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IBM

Cor

pora

tion

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hest

er A

venu

e,

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lain

s, N

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hem

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istic

al G

raph

ics,

P.

O.

Box

1558

, Pr

ince

ton,

NJ

0854

0,

U.S

.A.

STA

TIS

TIC

AL

O

livet

ti C

orpo

rati

on,

AN

AL

YSI

S SE

RIE

S 21

9 E.

42n

d St

reet

, N

ew Y

ork,

NY

100

17,

U.S

.A.

(212

) 59

9-78

71

Tab

ulat

ion,

sta

tistic

al a

naly

sis,

dat

a B

atch

FO

RT

RA

N.

man

agem

ent.

E.g.

fre

quen

cy d

istr

ibut

ion,

M

CA

RO

cr

oss-

tabu

latio

n, co

rrel

atio

n, s

catte

rgra

m,

regr

essi

on, d

iscr

imin

ant

anal

ysis

.

Gen

eral

-pur

pose

stat

istic

al a

nd t

abul

atin

g B

atch

sy

stem

. Inc

lude

s fr

eque

ncy

dist

ribu

tion,

C

rOSS

-tdhU

htiO

n, c

orre

latio

n, a

naly

sis

of

vari

ance

, reg

ress

ion,

dis

crim

inan

t ana

lysi

s,

Box

-Jen

kins

tim

e-se

ries

and

non

- pa

ram

etri

c te

sts.

FOR

TR

AN

, as

sem

bler

Var

ious

sta

tistic

al a

naly

ses,

sca

tter

diag

ram

s In

tera

ctiv

e or

N

/A

and

hist

ogra

ms.

ba

tch

Ana

lysi

s of

num

eric

al d

ata.

Cap

abili

ties

incl

ude

data

gen

erat

ion.

ele

men

tary

st

atis

tics,

reg

ress

ion,

cor

rela

tion,

m

ultiv

aria

te a

naly

sis,

ana

lysi

s of

var

ianc

e.

non-

para

met

ric

stat

istic

s, t

ime

seri

es

anal

ysis

and

bio

stat

istic

s. E

rror

che

ckin

g w

ith c

orre

latio

n fa

cilit

ies;

inst

ruct

iona

l m

essa

ges.

Gra

phic

s sy

stem

inte

grat

ed w

ith f

unct

ions

fo

r st

atis

tical

ana

lysi

s an

d fo

reca

stin

g.

Incl

udes

tim

e se

ries

plo

t. lo

cate

fun

ctio

n,

cont

our

func

tion,

cro

ss-c

orre

latio

n m

atri

ces,

box

and

whi

sker

plo

t, th

ree-

di

men

sion

al r

epre

sent

atio

n of

the

for

ecas

t er

ror

dist

ribu

tions

.

Inte

ract

ive

Inte

ract

ive

Stat

istic

al a

naly

sis

for

the

life

and

Inte

ract

ive

heha

viou

ral

scie

nces

, qua

lity

assu

ranc

e ap

plic

atio

ns o

r ad

vanc

ed t

heor

etic

al

mod

ellin

g ap

plic

atio

ns. I

nclu

des

pair

ed

data

ana

lysi

s, a

naly

sis

of v

aria

nce,

pr

obab

ility

and

sam

plin

g di

stri

butio

ns,

fore

cast

ing.

BA

SJC

APL

3 E

%

%

E s

Har

dwar

e M

emor

y re

quir

ed

5 D

EC

PD

P-I 1

/03.

04.

N

IA

34, 4

4. 6

0, 7

0

: h =.

Ove

r 30

sys

tem

s e.

g.

IBM

360

1370

, 43

00; C

DC

: Cyb

er

Seri

es, 6

000

DE

C:

Vax

-l I,

H

oney

wel

l, 60

00;

Serie

s 60

leve

l 66;

IC

L,

1900

, 290

0

HP:

300

0 C

X s

erie

s 9K

IBM

: Sys

tem

/3.

NIA

Sy

stem

360

/370

IBM

370

, 303

X, 3

0x1

N/A

an

d 43

00 s

erie

s m

achi

nes

and

othe

r co

mpa

ti hl

e co

nfig

urat

ions

(al

so

on m

icro

s)

Ext

ende

d B

ASI

C

Oliv

etti

P606

0 16

K

Page 9: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

STA

TIS

TIC

AL

SY

STEM

IB

M C

orpo

ratio

n,

Gen

eral

Sys

tem

s D

iv..

5775

Gle

nrid

ge D

rive.

N. E

., A

tlant

a, G

A 3

030 I

, U

.S.A

. (4

04) 2

56-7

000

STA

TIS

TIC

S PA

C

Cre

ativ

e D

isco

unt S

oftw

are,

25

65 R

ober

tson

, Su

ite 2

156,

B

ever

ly H

ills,

CA

902

1 I,

US

A.

Bus

ines

s R

esea

rch

and

Cor

p.

Mea

sure

men

ts,

295

Nor

th M

aple

Ave

nue,

R

m.:

17-7

14O

L2,

Bas

king

Rid

ge,

NJ

0792

0, U

SA

. (2

01) 2

21-7

730

Nor

thw

est A

naly

tical

Inc

., P.

O.

Box

144

30,

Port

land

, O

rego

n 97

214,

U.S

.A.

STA

TL

IB

AT

& T

,

STA

TPA

K

STA

TPA

K (U

.S.

F. A

. Sor

ense

n,

STE

EL

U

.S.

Stee

l Res

earc

h La

b.,

STA

TIS

TIC

S M

S 44,

PAC

KA

GE

) M

onro

evill

e,

PA 1

5146

, U.S

.A.

STA

TPA

TH

D

r. K

enne

th M

. Po

rtier

and

M

r. P

an-Y

u La

i (9

04) 3

92-1

946

or

SUM

CO

M 6

62-1

946

STA

TIP

RO

BL

EM

IB

M C

orpo

ratio

n,

SOLV

ER L

IBR

AR

Y

Gen

eral

Sys

tem

s D

iv.,

5775

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nrid

ge D

rive,

N. E

., A

tlant

a, G

A 3

0301

, U

.S.A

. (4

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000

Stat

istic

al a

naly

sis i

nclu

des

step

wis

e B

atch

re

gres

sion

. fac

tor

anal

ysis

. ana

lysi

s of

va

rianc

e, a

nd o

rtho

gona

l po

lyno

mia

l cur

ve

fittin

g. F

or s

tepw

ise

regr

essi

on a

naly

sis,

m

atrix

out

put

can

be u

sed

and

pool

ed

with

oth

er m

atric

es f

or u

se a

s in

put i

n la

ter

anal

yses

.

anal

ysis

, cur

ve fi

tting

, pro

babi

lity.

D

ata

man

agem

ent,

gene

ral

stat

istic

al

NIA

Fore

cast

ing

and

econ

omet

rics

(AR

IMA

In

tera

ctiv

e m

odel

ling,

poo

led

time-

serie

s cro

ss-

sect

iona

l ana

lysi

s, e

tc.),

reg

ress

ion

tech

niqu

es (

ordi

nary

leas

t squ

ares

, etc

.),

data

man

agem

ent,

grap

hics

and

sta

tistic

s (d

escr

iptiv

e st

atis

tics,

clu

ster

ana

lysi

s, e

tc.).

FOR

TR

AN

and

IB

M:

1130

as

sem

bler

BA

SIC

N/A

NIA

Rad

io S

hack

: TR

S-

N/A

B

O, A

pple

m

icro

com

pute

rs

VM

!CM

S,

N/A

M

USI

TSO

File

man

agem

ent;

stat

istic

al a

naly

sis

incl

udin

g pr

obab

ility

, des

crip

tive

and

non-

pa

ram

etri

c st

atis

tics.

dis

trib

utio

ns,

regr

essi

on, c

hi-s

quar

e, a

naly

sis

of v

aria

nce;

pl

ots,

ran

dom

num

bers

.

sign

ifica

nce

test

s; a

naly

sis

of v

aria

nce;

m

ultiv

aria

te a

naly

sis i

nclu

ding

can

onic

al

corr

elat

ion,

dis

crim

inan

t ana

lysi

s, f

acto

r an

alys

is; t

ime

serie

s, e

.g. a

uto

and

cros

s-

corr

elat

ion,

wei

ghte

d m

ovin

g av

erag

e,

tripl

e ex

pone

ntia

l sm

ooth

ing;

scat

terp

lots

.

A s

tatis

tical

exp

ert

syst

em d

esig

ned

to a

id

the

user

in d

eter

min

ing

the

appr

opri

ate

stat

istic

al a

naly

sis f

or th

eir

data

. Doe

s no

t ha

ve th

e ca

paci

ty to

per

form

the

ana

lysi

s.

Stat

istic

al a

naly

sis

incl

udes

his

togr

am,

cros

s ta

bula

tion,

t-te

st, r

egre

ssio

n, d

iscr

imin

ant

anal

ysis

, can

onic

al c

orre

latio

n, ti

me

serie

s an

alys

is, n

on-p

aram

etri

c st

atis

tics

and

bios

tatis

tics.

Dat

a m

anag

emen

t.

Bas

ic s

tatis

tics;

reg

ress

ion

anal

ysis

;

BA

SIC

N

/A

Dig

ital

Res

earc

h:

CP/

M (

Con

trol

Pr

ogra

m f

or

Mic

ropr

oces

sors

)

Inte

ract

ive

and

FOR

TR

AN

C

DC

Cyb

er S

erie

s;

batc

h Ex

tend

ed V

ersi

on

Hon

eyw

ell 6

000

4 (C

yber

), FO

RT

RA

N I

V

(Hon

eyw

ell)

Inte

ract

ive

FOR

TR

AN

77

DE

C P

DP

11 1

23

(men

u dr

iven

)

Bat

ch

APL

OR

BA

SIC

IB

M:

5100

NIA

NIA

Page 10: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

TlM

M

AN

SI,

FOR

TR

AN

D

EC

VA

X, P

rim

e N

/A

400,

IB

M

TR

OL

L

AE

D.

FOR

TR

AN

, IB

M 3

70

IBM

370

ass

embl

er

NA

%

Pack

age

Feat

ures

31

-

2 0 SY

STEM

1 32

IBM

Cor

pora

tion

, St

atis

tical

ana

lysi

s fo

r in

dust

rial

, sci

entif

ic

Inte

ract

ive

FO

RT

RA

N IV

IB

M: S

yste

m/3

2 16

K b

ytes

2.

.- M

ode

Lan

guag

e H

ardw

are

Mem

ory

requ

ired

2

Nam

e Su

pplie

r Fu

nctio

ns

STA

TIS

TIC

AL

G

ener

al S

yste

ms

Div

., an

d en

gine

erin

g en

viro

nmen

ts. I

nclu

des

09

SYST

EM

57

75 G

lenr

idge

Dri

ve, N

. E.,

Atla

nta.

GA

303

01.

U.S

.A.

vari

ance

. (4

04) 2

5670

00

Gen

eral

Res

earc

h C

orpo

rati

on,

7655

Old

Spr

ingh

ouse

Roa

d,

Flow

-Cal

c.

Wes

tgat

e R

esea

rch

Park

, M

cLea

n, V

irgi

nia

2210

2,

U.S

.A.

(703

) 89

3-59

00

Cen

ter

for

Com

puta

tion

al

An

inte

ract

ive

syst

em w

ith e

xten

sive

In

tera

ctiv

e

Econ

omic

s an

d M

anag

emen

t In

tera

ctiv

e da

ta a

naly

ses

can

be c

arri

ed

out

with

gre

at f

lexi

bilit

y. E

stim

atio

n M

.I.T.

, m

etho

ds in

clud

e re

gres

sion

ana

lyse

s (l

inea

r 29

2 M

ain

Stre

et,

and

non-

linea

r lea

st s

quar

es, r

idge

R

oom

E38

-200

. re

gres

sion

, var

ianc

e, e

tc.)

. Sim

ulat

ion

Cam

brid

ge, M

A 0

2139

, m

etho

ds in

clud

e fu

ll-sy

stem

dyn

amic

U

.S.A

. si

mul

atio

n, s

impl

e-eq

uatio

n fo

reca

stin

g,

sens

itivi

ty a

naly

sis.

Tim

e se

ries

ana

lysi

s in

clud

es A

RIM

A-B

ox-J

enki

ns

met

hods

. B

ox-C

ox

tran

sfor

mat

ions

. St

ate-

spac

e ei

gena

naly

sis.

Gra

phic

s.

poly

nom

ial

curv

e fi

tting

. ste

pwis

e lin

ear

regr

essi

on, f

acto

r an

alys

is a

nd a

naly

sis

of

A s

et o

f to

ols

for

the

build

ing

of a

n ex

pert

In

tera

ctiv

e sy

stem

for a

ny a

pplic

atio

n. I

nclu

des

Res

earc

h,

econ

omet

ric

rese

arch

cap

abili

ties.

Scie

nce.

Page 11: Mainframe multipurpose forecasting software: A survey

Software Reviews 137

Authors’ biographies: Essam Mahmoud is currently Associate Professor of Quantitative Analysis and Systems at the School of Management, University of Michigan-Flint. His interests are in the areas of forecasting applications, the accuracy of forecasting methods, forecasting and decision support systems and the evaluation and selection of software in general and in particular for forecasting applications and databases for businesses. He has published several articles in the Journal of Forecasting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, The American Statistician, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis and Management International Review.

Gillian Rice is Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Michigan-Flint. She has research interests in computer software marketing, the availability and accuracy of databases, and the marketing of computer technology in developing countries. She has published in Journal of Forecasting, the Journal of Business Forecasting Methods and Systems, Management international Review and Management Decision.

Victor E. McGee is currently a professor of applied statistics at the Amos Tuck School of Business Administration at Dartmouth College. His current teaching assignments in both the M.B.A. and executive programmes are in the areas of information systems, forecasting and statistical analysis management problems. His research interests include the application of statistical techniques to a variety of organization problems and the application of computers in information system management. His articles have appeared in such publications as the Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of the American Statistical Association and Journal of Accounting and Public Policy.

Chris Beaumont lectures on statistics, decision-modelling and forecasting at the London Business School. He has acted as consultant to a number of organizations on forecasting and computerization and is currently interested in the effects of software on the decision-making process.

Authors’ addresses: Essam Mahmoud, School of Management, University of Michigan, Flint, Michigan 48502-21 86, U.S.A. G i a n Rice, School of Management, University of Michigan, Flint, Michigan 48502-2 186, U.S.A. Victor E. McCee, Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, U.S.A. Chris Beaumont, London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent’s Park, London NWl 4SA, U.K.