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Chapter

2International Flow of Funds

South-Western/Thomson Learning 2006

Chapter Objectives

To explain the key components of the balance of payments; andTo explain how the international flow of funds is influenced by economic factors and other factors.

2-2

Balance of Payments The balance of payments is a summary oftransactions between domestic and foreign residents for a specific country over a specified period of time.

Inflows of funds generate credits for thecountrys balance, while outflows of funds generate debits.

2-3

Current Account The current account summarizes the flowof funds between one specified country and all other countries due to purchases of goods or services, or the provision of income on financial assets.

Key components of the current accountinclude the balance of trade, factor income, and transfer payments.

2-4

The U.S. Current Account in 2003(in billions of $) (1) U.S. exports of goods + (2) U.S. exports of services + (3) U.S. income receipts = (4) Total U.S. exports & income receipts (5) U.S. imports of goods + (6) U.S. imports of services + (7) U.S. income payments = (8) Total U.S. imports & income payments (9) Net transfers by the U.S. + + + $712 292 275

= $1,279 $1,263 246 259 = $1,768 $68 $5572-5

(10) Current account balance = (4) (8) (9)

Capital Account The capital account summarizes the flowof funds resulting from the sale of assets between one specified country and all other countries.

The key components of the capitalaccount are direct foreign investment, portfolio investment, and other capital investment.

2-6

International Trade Flows Some countries are more dependent ontrade than others. The trade volume of a European country is typically between 30 40% of its GDP, while the trade volume of U.S. (and Japan) is typically between 10 20% of its GDP.

Nevertheless, the volume of trade hasgrown over time for most countries.

2-7

Distribution of U.S. Exports across Countries(in billions of $)

2-8

Distribution of U.S. Exports and Imports

2-9

U.S. Balance of Trade Over Time

2 - 10

Trade Agreements Many agreements have been made toreduce trade restrictions: 1988 U.S. and Canada free trade pact North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) Single European Act and the European Union2 - 11

Trade Disagreements However, even without tariffs and quotas,governments seem always able to find strategies that can give their local firms an edge in exporting: different environmental, labor laws bribes, government subsidies (dumping) tax breaks for specific industries exchange rate manipulations

2 - 12

Trade Disagreements Other trade-related issues include:

the outsourcing of services the use of trade policies for political reasons disagreements within the European Union

2 - 13

Factors Affecting International Trade Flows Impact of Inflation

A relative increase in a countrys inflation rate will decrease its current account, as imports increase and exports decrease. A relative increase in a countrys income level will decrease its current account, as imports increase.

Impact of National Income

2 - 14

Factors Affecting International Trade Flows Impact of Government Restrictions

A government may reduce its countrys imports by imposing a tariff on imported goods, or by enforcing a quota. Some trade restrictions may be imposed on certain products for health and safety reasons.

2 - 15

Factors Affecting International Trade Flows Impact of Exchange Rates

If a countrys currency begins to rise in value, its current account balance will decrease as imports increase and exports decrease.

The factors interact, such that their simultaneous influence on the balance of trade is complex.2 - 16

Correcting A Balance of Trade Deficit By reconsidering the factors that affectthe balance of trade, some common correction methods can be developed.

A floating exchange rate system maycorrect a trade imbalance automatically since the trade imbalance will affect the demand and supply of the currencies involved.

2 - 17

Why a Weak Home Currency Is Not a Perfect Solution Counterpricing by competitors Impact of other weak currencies Stability of intracompany trade Many firms purchase products that are produced by their subsidiaries. Prearranged international transactions The lag time between a weaker U.S.$ and increased foreign demand has been estimated to be 18 months or longer.2 - 18

The J-Curve EffectU.S. Trade Balance 0 Time

J Curve

Deterioration due to dollar depreciation

Change in purchasing power caused by weaker dollar

2 - 19

International Capital Flows

2 - 20

Distribution of DFIFor 2003, in millions of dollars

U.S. DFIAll countries America Canada Mexico Europe Germany Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom Africa Middle East Asia & Pacific Japan 151,884 26,997 13,826 5,667 99,191 8,676 14,968 14,444 39,548 2,211 2,093 21,392 5,800 100.0% 17.8% 9.1% 3.7% 65.3% 5.7% 9.9% 9.5% 26.0% 1.5% 1.4% 14.1% 3.8%

DFI in the U.S.29,772 12,641 9,116 1,944 6,572 407 -614 -6,993 -2,288 -50 522 10,086 6,495 100.0% 42.5% 30.6% 6.5% 22.1% 1.4% -2.1% -23.5% -7.7% -0.2% 1.8% 33.9% 21.8%2 - 21

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Factors Affecting DFI Changes in Restrictions

New opportunities may arise from the removal of government barriers. DFI has also been stimulated by the selling of government operations.Countries that have higher potential for economic growth are more attractive.2 - 22

Privatization

Potential Economic Growth

Factors Affecting DFI Tax Rates

Countries that impose relatively low tax rates on corporate earnings are more likely to attract DFI.Firms typically prefer to invest in countries where the local currency is expected to strengthen against their own.

Exchange Rates

2 - 23

Factors Affecting International Portfolio Investment

Tax Rates on Interest or Dividends

Investors will normally prefer countries where the tax rates are relatively low. Money tends to flow to countries with high interest rates. Foreign investors may be attracted if the local currency is expected to strengthen.2 - 24

Interest Rates

Exchange Rates

Agencies that Facilitate International Flows International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The IMF encourages internationalization of businesses through surveillance, and financial and technical assistance. Its compensatory financing facility attempts to reduce the impact of export instability on country economies. The IM F adopts a quota system, and its financing is measured in special drawing rights (SDRs).2 - 25

Agencies that Facilitate International Flows World Bank

This International Bank for Reconstruction and Development makes loans to countries to enhance their economic development. In particular, its Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) are intended to enhance a countrys long-term economic growth. Funds are spread through cofinancing agreements with official aid agencies, export credit agencies, and commercial banks.2 - 26

Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency

Established by the World Bank, the MIGA helps develop international trade and investment by offering various forms of political risk insurance. The IDA extends loans at low interest rates to poor nations that cannot qualify for loans from the World Bank.2 - 27

International Development Association

Agencies that Facilitate International Flows World Trade Organization

The WTO was established to provide a forum for multilateral trade negotiations and to settle trade disputes related to the GATT accord.The IFC promotes private enterprise within countries through loan provisions and stock purchases.2 - 28

International Financial Corporation

Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Bank for International Settlements

The BIS is the central banks central bank and lender of last resort. Inter-American Development Bank Asian Development Bank African Development Bank European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.2 - 29

Regional development agencies