macroeconomic outlookpib - r$ de 2006(milhões) - ipea - gac_pib variação anual variação anual...
TRANSCRIPT
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
DETERMINED BY CHANGES IN THE
GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ITS IMPACTS
ON EXCHANGE-RATE
AND BY THE SLOWER DOMESTIC
GROWTH
Economic Research Department - DEPEC
PIB de Longo Prazo - Fonte: IPEADATA
Período
PIB - R$ de 2006(milhões)
- IPEA - Gac_PIBVariação Anual
Variação Anual Oficial
(IBGE - Nova Metodologia)Médias
Fatores de
Crescimento PIB
Crescimento
Mundial
PIB Brasil -
PIB Mundo
1900 15868.35393
1901 18147.78598 14.36 1.144 14.36
1902 18060.11552 -0.48 0.995 -0.48 -14.85
1903 18410.79737 1.94 1.019 1.94 2.42
1904 18673.80876 1.43 1.014 1.43 -0.51
1905 19287.50201 3.29 1.033 3.29 1.86
1906 21742.27499 12.73 1.127 12.73 9.44
1907 21917.61592 0.81 1.008 0.81 -11.92
1908 21216.25221 -3.20 0.968 -3.20 -4.01
1909 23408.0138 10.33 1.103 10.33 13.53
1910 24021.70705 2.62 1.026 2.62 -7.71
1911 25424.43447 5.84 1.058 5.84 3.22
1912 27177.84374 6.90 1.069 6.90 1.06
1913 27966.87791 2.90 1.029 2.90 -3.99
1914 27616.19606 -1.25 0.987 -1.25 -4.16
1915 27703.86652 0.32 1.003 0.32 1.57
1916 27966.87791 0.95 1.009 0.95 0.63
1917 30596.99183 9.40 1.094 9.40 8.46
1918 29983.29858 -2.01 0.980 -2.01 -11.41
1919 32350.4011 7.89 1.079 7.89 9.90
1920 36383.24243 12.47 1.125 12.47 4.57
1921 37074.52403 1.90 1.019 1.90 -10.57
1922 39966.33691 7.80 1.078 7.80 5.90
1923 43403.44188 8.60 1.086 8.60 0.80
1924 44011.09007 1.40 1.014 1.40 -7.20
1925 44011.09007 0.00 1.000 0.00 -1.40
1926 46299.66675 5.20 1.052 5.20 5.20
1927 51300.03076 10.80 1.108 10.80 5.60
1928 57199.5343 11.50 1.115 11.50 0.70
1929 57828.72918 1.10 1.011 1.10 -10.40
1930 56614.32587 -2.10 0.979 -2.10 -3.20
1931 54746.05311 -3.30 0.967 -3.30 -1.20
1932 57100.1334 4.30 1.043 4.30 7.60
1933 62182.04527 8.90 1.089 8.90 4.60
1934 67902.79343 9.20 1.092 9.20 0.30
1935 69939.87724 3.00 1.030 3.00 -6.20
1936 78402.60238 12.10 1.121 12.10 9.10
1937 82009.12209 4.60 1.046 4.60 -7.50
1938 85699.53258 4.50 1.045 4.50 -0.10
1939 87842.0209 2.50 1.025 2.50 -2.00
1940 86963.60069 -1.00 0.990 -1.00 -3.50
1941 91224.81712 4.90 1.049 4.90 5.90
1942 88761.74706 -2.70 0.973 -2.70 -7.60
1943 96306.49556 8.50 1.085 8.50 11.20
1944 103625.7892 7.60 1.076 7.60 -0.90
1945 106941.8145 3.20 1.032 3.20 -4.40
1946 119347.065 11.60 1.116 11.60 8.40
1947 122211.3945 2.40 1.024 2.40 -9.20
1948 134065.8998 9.70 1.097 9.70 7.30
1949 144388.9741 7.70 1.077 7.70 -2.00
1950 154207.4243 6.80 1.068 6.80 -0.90
1951 161763.5881 4.90 1.049 4.90 -1.90
1952 173572.33 7.30 1.073 7.30 2.40
1953 181730.2295 4.70 1.047 4.70 -2.60
1954 195905.1874 7.80 1.078 7.80 3.10
1955 213144.8439 8.80 1.088 8.80 1.00
1956 219326.0444 2.90 1.029 2.90 -5.90
1957 236214.1498 7.70 1.077 7.70 4.80
1958 261725.278 10.80 1.108 10.80 3.10
1959 287374.3553 9.80 1.098 9.80 -1.00
1960 314387.5447 9.40 1.094 9.40 -0.40
1961 341424.8735 8.60 1.086 8.60 -0.80
1962 363958.9151 6.60 1.066 6.60 -2.00
1963 366142.6686 0.60 1.006 0.60 -6.00
1964 378591.5194 3.40 1.034 3.40 2.80
1965 387677.7158 2.40 1.024 2.40 -1.00
1966 413652.1228 6.70 1.067 6.70 4.30
1967 431025.512 4.20 1.042 4.20 -2.50
1968 473266.0121 9.80 1.098 9.80 5.60
1969 518226.2833 9.50 1.095 9.50 -0.30
1970 572121.8167 10.40 1.104 5.10 5.30 10.40 0.90
1971 637017.1481 11.34 1.113 4.50 6.84 11.34 0.94
1972 713079.2132 11.94 1.119 5.35 6.59 11.94 0.60
1973 812687.2645 13.97 1.140 6.84 7.13 13.97 2.03
1974 878953.2858 8.15 1.082 2.77 5.39 8.15 -5.81
1975 924365.7177 5.17 1.052 1.91 3.26 5.17 -2.99
1976 1019179.107 10.26 1.103 5.11 5.15 10.26 5.09
1977 1069468.747 4.93 1.049 4.35 0.59 4.93 -5.32
1978 1122620.25 4.97 1.050 4.54 0.43 4.97 0.04
1979 1198504.441 6.76 1.068 3.74 3.02 6.76 1.79
1980 1308766.849 9.20 1.092 2.14 7.06 9.20 2.44
1981 1253144.258 -4.25 0.957 2.18 -6.43 -4.25 -13.45
1982 1263545.356 0.83 1.008 1.13 -0.30 0.83 5.08
1983 1226523.477 -2.93 0.971 3.02 -5.95 -2.93 -3.76
1984 1292755.744 5.40 2.66 1.054 4.74 0.66 5.40 8.33
1985 1394237.07 7.85 2.68 1.078 3.79 4.06 7.85 2.45
1986 1498665.427 7.49 2.66 1.075 3.69 3.80 7.49 -0.36
1987 1551568.316 3.53 2.66 1.035 3.90 -0.37 3.53 -3.96
1988 1550637.375 -0.06 2.66 0.999 4.73 -4.79 -0.06 -3.59
1989 1599637.516 3.16 2.66 1.032 3.79 -0.63 3.16 3.22
1990 1530053.285 -4.35 2.66 0.957 2.94 -7.29 -4.35 -7.51
1991 1545835.544 1.03 2.66 1.010 1.65 -0.62 1.03 5.38
1992 1538617.807 -0.47 -0.47 2.66 0.995 2.39 -2.85 -0.47 -1.50
1993 1610396.65 4.67 4.67 2.66 1.047 2.44 2.22 4.67 5.13
1994 1696301.003 5.33 5.33 2.66 1.053 3.81 1.53 5.33 0.67
1995 1771223.768 4.42 4.42 2.66 1.044 3.70 0.72 4.42 -0.92
1996 1809305.079 2.15 2.15 2.66 1.022 4.07 -1.92 2.15 -2.27
1997 1870368.018 3.37 3.37 2.66 1.034 4.21 -0.84 3.37 1.22
1998 1871032.227 0.04 0.04 2.66 1.000 2.73 -2.69 0.04 -3.34
1999 1875814.532 0.26 0.26 2.66 1.003 3.74 -3.49 0.26 0.22
2000 1956582.335 4.31 4.31 2.66 1.043 4.83 -0.53 4.31 4.05
2001 1982309.361 1.31 1.31 2.66 1.013 2.55 -1.23 1.31 -2.99
2002 2034958.987 2.66 2.66 2.66 1.027 3.10 -0.44 2.66 1.34
2003 2058294.86 1.15 1.15 2.66 1.011 4.04 -2.90 1.15 -1.51
2004 2175904.118 5.71 5.71 4.20 1.057 5.29 0.42 4.31 5.71 4.57
2005 2244583.32 3.16 3.16 4.20 1.032 4.90 -1.74 4.31 3.16 -2.56
2006 2333365.911 3.96 3.96 4.20 1.040 5.50 -1.54 4.31 3.96 0.80
2007 2475595.18 6.10 6.10 4.20 1.061 5.00 1.10 4.31 6.10 2.14
2008 2603566.097 5.17 5.17 4.20 1.052 4.60 0.57 4.31
2009 2595755.399 -0.30 -0.33 4.20 0.997 4.31
2010 2791309.629 7.53 7.53 4.20 1.075 4.31
2011* 2867582.422 2.73 4.20 1.027 4.31
2012* 2973682.972 3.70 4.20 1.037 4.31
2013* 3113446.072 4.70 1.047 4.31
2014* 3258221.314 4.65 1.047 4.31
2015* 3408099.495 4.60 1.046 4.31
2016 3561463.972 4.50 1.045
2017 3721729.851 4.50 1.045
2018 3889207.694 4.50 1.045
2019 4064222.04 4.50 1.045
2020 4247112.032 4.50 1.045
1971-1980 8.7
1981-1990 1.7
1991-2000 2.5
2001-2010 3.6
2011-2020 4.3
2006 4.0
2007 6.1
2008 5.2
2009 -0.3
2010 7.5
2011 2.7
2012 3.7
BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1984 - 2014
CRESCIMENTO DO PIB 1984 - 2012
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO 2
5.4
7.87.5
3.5
-0.1
3.2
-4.3
1.0
-0.5
4.7
5.3
4.4
2.1
3.4
0.0 0.3
4.3
1.3
2.7
1.1
5.7
3.2
4.0
6.1
5.2
-0.3
7.5
2.7
1.0
2.3 2.1
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
2014
*
Média dos 20 anos anteriores: 2,7%
Média dos 11 anos: 3,6%
CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2013Fonte: IBGE e IPEAElaboração e Projeção: Bradesco
20 YEARS
AVERAGE: 2.7%
10 YEARS
AVERAGE:
3.6%
3
THE KEY CHALLENGES OF
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY:
DEMOGRAPHY, LABOR
MARKET AND EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT
PARA
COMBATER A
INFLAÇÃO
BASAL, O
BRASIL
PRECISARIA DE
UMA ESPÉCIE
DE PLANO REAL
II
3
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN BRAZIL IS FUNDAMENTALLY
EXPLAINED BY DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES
LABOR SUPPLY GROWTHS
TOO SLOWLY
4
BRAZILIAN POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE (SUPPLY), EMPLOYED POPULATION (DEMAND) AND UNEMPLOYED IN MILLION PEOPLE
5 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
196,5
134,7
99,993,8
6,1
2
52
102
152
202
252
Milh
õe
s
2012
População total PIA PEA Ocupados
Desocupados
BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET: SUPPLY AND DEMAND (12-MONTHS CHANGE)
6 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
1.67%
3.38%
0.73%
3.49%
2.04%
0.99%
0.62%
2.61%
1.55%
1.80%
2.01%
1.22%
0.88%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
no
v/0
5
fev/0
6
mai/0
6
ag
o/0
6
no
v/0
6
fev/0
7
mai/0
7
ag
o/0
7
no
v/0
7
fev/0
8
mai/0
8
ag
o/0
8
no
v/0
8
fev/0
9
mai/0
9
ag
o/0
9
no
v/0
9
fev/1
0
mai/1
0
ag
o/1
0
no
v/1
0
fev/1
1
mai/1
1
ag
o/1
1
no
v/1
1
fev/1
2
mai/1
2
ag
o/1
2
no
v/1
2
fev/1
3
mai/1
3
ag
o/1
3
no
v/1
3
Demand
Supply
BRAZILIAN POPULATION AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24 (IN MILLION)
SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO 7
23.5
24.0
24.5
24.8
25.025.0
25.0
24.8
24.6
24.4
24.2
24.124.0 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Milh
õe
s18 a 24
POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH – WORLD AND BRAZIL
8 SOURCE: WORLD BANK, BRADESCO
1.41%
0.98%
0.87%
0.75%
0.63%
1.26%
1.17%1.12%
1.02%0.96%
0.04%
0.24%
0.44%
0.64%
0.84%
1.04%
1.24%
1.44%
1.64%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Brasil
MundoWORLD
BRAZIL
BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 – 2014)
9
9.910.0
9.3
7.98.1
6.7
6.0
5.55.4
6.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
TAXA DE DESEMPREGOFonte: IBGE
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB – ‘000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS
10
-271
-36
-582
-196
658591
762
645
1,523
1,254 1,229
1,617
1,452
995
2,137
1,566
868
661 697
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
*
20
14
*
GERAÇÃO LÍQUIDA DE EMPREGO FORMAL 1996 - 2013. Fonte: Caged. Elaboração e projeções (*): BradescoEm postos de trabalho
SOURCE: CAGED
FORECAST: BRADESCO
-1.3%
1.5%
4.0%
3.2%3.4%
3.2%
3.8%
2.7%
4.1%
1.6%
2.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RENDIMENTO MÉDIO REAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUALFonte: IBGEElaboração: Bradesco
BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
11 SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
12
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS – BRADESCO
SURVEY – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO
7.43
7.62
7.22
6.17
8.04
7.08
6.13
6.57
7.08
8.87
7.36
9.08
8.52
7.23
8.08
8.45
6.76
8.28
7.77
9.30
8.11
9.31
9.71 9.70
9.19
8.728.53
8.258.10 8.06
8.64
8.308.07 8.13 8.10
8.23
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
jan
/10
fev
/10
ma
r/1
0
ab
r/1
0
ma
i/1
0
jun
/10
jul/
10
ag
o/1
0
se
t/1
0
ou
t/10
no
v/1
0
dez/1
0
jan
/11
fev
/11
ma
r/1
1
ab
r/1
1
ma
i/1
1
jun
/11
jul/
11
ag
o/1
1
se
t/1
1
ou
t/11
no
v/1
1
dez/1
1
jan
/12
fev
/12
ma
r/1
2
ab
r/1
2
ma
i/1
2
jun
/12
jul/
12
ag
o/1
2
se
t/1
2
ou
t/12
no
v/1
2
dez/1
2
jan
/13
fev
/13
ma
r/1
3
ab
r/1
3
ma
i/1
3
jun
/13
jul/
13
ag
o/1
3
se
t/1
3
ou
t/13
no
v/1
3
dez/1
3
REAJUSTES SALARIAIS NOMINAIS – PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA – TODOS OS SETORES AGREGADOS
Pesquisa Proprietária
13
INDUSTRY THAT WAS NOT ALREADY COMPETITIVE WAS
NOT PREPARED FOR INCREASED COSTS OF
WAGES.
BESIDES THIS, GLOBAL DEMAND ACCOMODATED IN A SLOWER PACE OF GROWTH
PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN MANUFACTURING, US$, 2006-2012
SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO 14
0.0%
8.3%
16.3% 17.4% 19.3% 21.1% 22.8%25.5%
28.1%
33.5%36.3%
42.1%
47.1%
57.3%
63.4%
87.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Me
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o
Neth
erl
an
ds
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ec
e
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ta
iwan
Fra
nc
e
Ko
rea
, R
ep
ub
lic
of
Ita
ly
Fin
lan
d
Po
rtu
gal
Belg
ium
Sp
ain
Au
str
ia
Ire
lan
d
Den
ma
rk
Can
ad
a
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Sw
ed
en
Sw
itze
rla
nd
No
rwa
y
Isra
el
Czec
h R
ep
ub
lic
Ja
pan
Ph
ilip
pin
es
New
Ze
ala
nd
Es
ton
ia
Au
str
ali
a
Slo
va
kia
Sin
ga
po
re
Bra
zil
crescimento acumulado
2006 = 100
BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS – QUANTUM, INDEX NUMBER – 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE
SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO
103.6
100.8
98.1
84.7
75.7
80.6
83.284.7 84.2
82.6 82.2
84.2 85.3
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
no
v/0
7
jan
/08
mar/0
8
mai/0
8
jul/08
set/
08
no
v/0
8
jan
/09
mar/0
9
mai/0
9
jul/09
set/
09
no
v/0
9
jan
/10
mar/1
0
mai/1
0
jul/10
set/
10
no
v/1
0
jan
/11
mar/1
1
mai/1
1
jul/11
set/
11
no
v/1
1
jan
/12
mar/1
2
mai/1
2
jul/12
set/
12
no
v/1
2
jan
/13
mar/1
3
mai/1
3
jul/13
set/
13
no
v/1
3
15
BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)
2.7%
0.1%
8.3%
3.1% 2.8%
6.0%
3.1%
-7.4%
10.5%
0.4%
-2.6%
1.3%
2.5%
-9.0%
-5.0%
-1.0%
3.0%
7.0%
11.0%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUALFonte: IBGE
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO 16
17
AS A RESULT, HIGH WAGES WILL KEEP CONSUMPTION
INCREASING.
BESIDES THIS, IMPROVEMENT IN SOCIAL MOBILILITY
ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST YEARS SUSTAIN FAMILY
DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICE.
BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES – INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING
MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO 18
10.7%
3.5%
6.5%
13.5%
9.8%
7.0%
12.0%
6.9%
7.8%
3.9%
3.2%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA
BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE
SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE,
BRADESCO
80.617
88.178
97.109
99.760
106.200
111.907
117.873 118.031
120.374124.475
73.0
83.0
93.0
103.0
113.0
123.0
133.0
no
v/0
4ja
n/0
5m
ar/
05
mai/0
5ju
l/05
set/
05
no
v/0
5ja
n/0
6m
ar/
06
mai/0
6ju
l/06
set/
06
no
v/0
6ja
n/0
7m
ar/
07
mai/0
7ju
l/07
set/
07
no
v/0
7ja
n/0
8m
ar/
08
mai/0
8ju
l/08
set/
08
no
v/0
8ja
n/0
9m
ar/
09
mai/0
9ju
l/09
set/
09
no
v/0
9ja
n/1
0m
ar/
10
mai/1
0ju
l/10
set/
10
no
v/1
0ja
n/1
1m
ar/
11
mai/1
1ju
l/11
set/
11
no
v/1
1ja
n/1
2m
ar/
12
mai/1
2ju
l/12
set/
12
no
v/1
2ja
n/1
3m
ar/
13
mai/1
3ju
l/13
set/
13
no
v/1
3
Milh
õe
s
Classes ABCFonte: IBGEElaboração: Bradesco
Em milhões
19
37.9%
20.0%
33.3%
3.8%5.0%
18.4% 17.9%
53.2%
5.7% 4.8%
11.9%
16.3%
58.9%
7.9%5.1%
00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Classe E Classe D Classe C Classe B Classe A
2000
2010
2020*
BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE
SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO
CLASSE A: R$ 7.006 OU MAIS
CLASSE B: DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006
CLASSE C: DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635
CLASSE D: DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159
CLASSE E: ATÉ R$ 701
20
BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991 - 2013
G:\Area Economica\BBV\Regina\ palestra agribusiness - arroz preços internos.xls
EM MIL TON
* Projeção SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO
21
57,901
68,400
76,03581,065
78,42783,030
100,26796,761
123,168
113,898
131,751
144,137149,255
162,803
186,864
196,672
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
3
93/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4*
em mil toneladasFonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco
Produção Nacional de Grãos (Arroz, Feijão, Milho, Trigo, Soja, Algodão)
INFLATION
BEHAVIOUR WILL
DEPEND ON:
FOOD, SERVICES
AND PASS THROUGH 22
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND SERVICE INFLATION
CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004
2004 - 2013
23 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
3.1%
14.8%
26.2%
49.7%
76.8%
96.3%
123.1%
19.8%
36.3%
56.1%
69.5%
91.2%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
no
v/0
4
fev/0
5
mai/0
5
ag
o/0
5
no
v/0
5
fev/0
6
mai/0
6
ag
o/0
6
no
v/0
6
fev/0
7
mai/0
7
ag
o/0
7
no
v/0
7
fev/0
8
mai/0
8
ag
o/0
8
no
v/0
8
fev/0
9
mai/0
9
ag
o/0
9
no
v/0
9
fev/1
0
mai/1
0
ag
o/1
0
no
v/1
0
fev/1
1
mai/1
1
ag
o/1
1
no
v/1
1
fev/1
2
mai/1
2
ag
o/1
2
no
v/1
2
fev/1
3
mai/1
3
ag
o/1
3
no
v/1
3
Nominal income
Services inflation
24 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND DURABLE GOODS INFLATION
CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004
2004 - 2013
3.10%
7.23%
23.28%25.72%
34.85%
49.73% 60.93%
72.07%74.86%
85.01%
96.25%
95.05%
123.14%
9.32%11.13% 8.38% 8.40%
5.28% 7.09%
1.33% 5.28%
-5.0%
15.0%
35.0%
55.0%
75.0%
95.0%
115.0%
no
v/0
4
fev/0
5
mai/0
5
ag
o/0
5
no
v/0
5
fev/0
6
mai/0
6
ag
o/0
6
no
v/0
6
fev/0
7
mai/0
7
ag
o/0
7
no
v/0
7
fev/0
8
mai/0
8
ag
o/0
8
no
v/0
8
fev/0
9
mai/0
9
ag
o/0
9
no
v/0
9
fev/1
0
mai/1
0
ag
o/1
0
no
v/1
0
fev/1
1
mai/1
1
ag
o/1
1
no
v/1
1
fev/1
2
mai/1
2
ag
o/1
2
no
v/1
2
fev/1
3
mai/1
3
ag
o/1
3
no
v/1
3
nominal income
durable goods
BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FOOD COMPONENT (12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE)
25 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
11.20%
9.84%
13.28%
18.45%
13.37%
1.57%
2.31%
0.88%
6.67%
2.29%
10.68%
6.22%
9.81%
4.48%
10.80%
10.02%
15.71%
7.65%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
ag
o/0
7
ou
t/07
dez/0
7
fev/0
8
ab
r/08
jun
/08
ag
o/0
8
ou
t/08
dez/0
8
fev/0
9
ab
r/09
jun
/09
ag
o/0
9
ou
t/09
dez/0
9
fev/1
0
ab
r/10
jun
/10
ag
o/1
0
ou
t/10
dez/1
0
fev/1
1
ab
r/11
jun
/11
ag
o/1
1
ou
t/11
dez/1
1
fev/1
2
ab
r/12
jun
/12
ag
o/1
2
ou
t/12
dez/1
2
fev/1
3
ab
r/13
jun
/13
ag
o/1
3
ou
t/13
dez/1
3
12M
BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE
26 SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
6.06%
7.18%
8.07%
6.02%
6.36%
5.70%
4.03%
2.96%
4.18%
6.41%
5.90%
4.17%
5.22%
4.84%
5.99%
6.87%
7.23%
4.92%
6.70%
5.85%5.91%5.69%
6.47%
5.87%
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
jun
/04
set/
04
dez/
04
mar/
05
jun
/05
set/
05
dez/
05
mar/
06
jun
/06
set/
06
dez/
06
mar/
07
jun
/07
set/
07
dez/
07
mar/
08
jun
/08
set/
08
dez/
08
mar/
09
jun
/09
set/
09
dez/
09
mar/
10
jun
/10
set/
10
dez/
10
mar/
11
jun
/11
set/
11
dez/
11
mar/
12
jun
/12
set/
12
dez/
12
mar/
13
jun
/13
set/
13
dez/
13
mar/
14
jun
/14
set/
14
dez/
14
BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2002-2014*
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO 27
12.53%
9.30%
7.60%
5.69%
3.14%
4.46%
5.90%
4.31%
5.91%6.50%
5.84% 5.91% 5.87%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*
IPCA VARIAÇÃO ANUAL – 2002-2014. FONTE: IBGE. ELABORAÇÃO E PROJEÇÕES (*): BRADESCO
28
PRODUCTIVITY MUST INCREASE IN BRAZIL
GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND WILL BE CLOSED WITH SUPPLY EXPANSION,
LABOR FORCE QUALIFICATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
GROWTH
29
1.5
8.7
-0.3
-8.2
5.0
0.4
-5.2-4.6
9.1
3.6
9.8
13.913.6
-6.7
21.3
4.7
-4.0
6.0
4.0
-12.0
-9.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
24.0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(p
)
2014
(p
)
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO 29
INVESTMENTS – FROM BRAZILIAN GDP FIGURES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)
BRAZILIAN AVERAGE SCHOOLING YEARS PEOPLE AGED 25 OR MORE
SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
5,9
6,1
6,26,4
6,5
6,7
6,8
7,0
7,2 7,3
7,47,5
8,6
5,8
6,3
6,8
7,3
7,8
8,3
8,8
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0*
201
1
201
2*
202
0*
Média por Ano - 25
30
31
OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE
RATE
31
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2014
SOURCE: BCB
FORECAST: BRADESCO 32
11.75%
13.00%
13.75%
12.75%
11.25%
10.25%
8.75%8.75%
9.50%
10.25%
10.75%
11.25%
12.00%12.50%
11.00%
10.50%
9.75%
9.00%
8.50%
8.00%
7.25%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
10.75%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
mar-
08
jun
-08
set-
08
dez-0
8
mar-
09
jun
-09
set-
09
dez-0
9
mar-
10
jun
-10
set-
10
dez-1
0
mar-
11
jun
-11
set-
11
dez-1
1
mar-
12
jun
-12
set-
12
dez-1
2
mar-
13
jun
-13
set-
13
dez-1
3
mar-
14
jun
-14
set-
14
dez-1
4
Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009 - 2013
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO 33
1.86
1.73
1.88
1.65
1.74
1.64
1.54
1.91
1.721.69
1.88
2.03
2.08
1.99
2.12
2.04
1.95
2.14
2.25
2.46
2.15
2.33 2.35
1.45
1.65
1.85
2.05
2.25
2.45
14/1
1/0
9
14/1
2/0
9
14/0
1/1
0
14/0
2/1
014/0
3/1
0
14/0
4/1
0
14/0
5/1
0
14/0
6/1
0
14/0
7/1
0
14/0
8/1
0
14/0
9/1
0
14/1
0/1
0
14/1
1/1
0
14/1
2/1
0
14/0
1/1
1
14/0
2/1
114/0
3/1
1
14/0
4/1
1
14/0
5/1
1
14/0
6/1
1
14/0
7/1
1
14/0
8/1
1
14/0
9/1
1
14/1
0/1
1
14/1
1/1
1
14/1
2/1
1
14/0
1/1
2
14/0
2/1
214/0
3/1
2
14/0
4/1
2
14/0
5/1
2
14/0
6/1
2
14/0
7/1
2
14/0
8/1
2
14/0
9/1
2
14/1
0/1
2
14/1
1/1
2
14/1
2/1
2
14/0
1/1
3
14/0
2/1
314/0
3/1
3
14/0
4/1
3
14/0
5/1
3
14/0
6/1
3
14/0
7/1
3
14/0
8/1
3
14/0
9/1
3
14/1
0/1
3
14/1
1/1
3
14/1
2/1
3
14/0
1/1
4
DECEMBER 2009
R$ 1.74 / US$
DECEMBER 2008
R$ 2.34 / US$
DECEMBER 2010
R$ 1.67 / US$
DECEMBER 2011
R$ 1.88 / US$
DECEMBER 2012
R$ 2.04 / US$
DECEMBER 2013
R$ 2.34 / US$
DECEMBER 2014
R$ 2.40 / US$
1.96
2.32
3.53
2.89
2.65
2.34
2.14
1.77
2.34
1.741.67
1.88
2.04
2.35 2.40
0.80
1.40
2.00
2.60
3.20
3.80
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Taxa de Câmbio (final de ano) - 2003 - 2012- R$/US$ - Fonte: BCB Projeções Bradesco
R$/US$
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO 34
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2000 - 2014
35
US TREASURIES – 10 YEARS 2010- 2014
Em %
D:\Area Economica\BBV\BLOOMBERG - T-BOND 10 ANOS E 30 ANOS.xls
3.826
2.792
2.383
3.549
3.170
2.864
2.048
2.2192.269
1.508
1.668
1.615
1.938
1.663
2.165
2.739
2.484
2.994
2.502
3.028
2.865
1.20
1.70
2.20
2.70
3.20
3.70
4.20
04/0
2/1
0
06/0
3/1
0
05/0
4/1
0
05/0
5/1
0
04/0
6/1
0
04/0
7/1
0
03/0
8/1
0
02/0
9/1
0
02/1
0/1
0
01/1
1/1
0
01/1
2/1
0
31/1
2/1
0
30/0
1/1
1
01/0
3/1
1
31/0
3/1
1
30/0
4/1
1
30/0
5/1
1
29/0
6/1
1
29/0
7/1
1
28/0
8/1
1
27/0
9/1
1
27/1
0/1
1
26/1
1/1
1
26/1
2/1
1
25/0
1/1
2
24/0
2/1
2
25/0
3/1
2
24/0
4/1
2
24/0
5/1
2
23/0
6/1
2
23/0
7/1
2
22/0
8/1
2
21/0
9/1
2
21/1
0/1
2
20/1
1/1
2
20/1
2/1
2
19/0
1/1
3
18/0
2/1
3
20/0
3/1
3
19/0
4/1
3
19/0
5/1
3
18/0
6/1
3
18/0
7/1
3
17/0
8/1
3
16/0
9/1
3
16/1
0/1
3
15/1
1/1
3
15/1
2/1
3
14/0
1/1
4
TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006- 2013. Fonte: Bloomberg
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
36
CHINESE GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1981 - 2014
SOURCE: CEIC
FORECAST: BRADESCO
5.2
9.3
11.2
15.2
13.2
8.5
11.511.3
4.13.8
9.2
14.214.0
13.1
10.9
10.0
9.3
7.8 7.6
8.4 8.3
9.1
10.1
11.3
12.7
14.2
9.69.2
10.4
9.3
7.7 7.77.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). Fonte: Bloomberg
Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco
36
BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION)
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
-1,811
-18,384
-23,502
-30,452-33,416
-25,335-24,225-23,215
-7,637
4,177
11,67913,98513,643
1,551
-28,192-24,302
-47,273
-52,480-54,246
-81,120
-73,205-72,313
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
37
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT – US$ million
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
38
28,856 28,578
32,779
22,457
16,590
10,144
18,146
15,066
18,822
34,585
45,058
25,949
48,506
66,66065,272
62,00060,000
64,200
0
9,000
18,000
27,000
36,000
45,000
54,000
63,000
72,0001998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
2014
*
2015
*
DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO
Estimation based on information available until 16th January, 2014 45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015-2020
(average)
GDP% -0.3 7.5 2.7 1.0 2.4 2.1 3.4
CPI (IPCA) % 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.2
WPI (IGP-M) % -1.7 11.3 5.1 7.8 5.5 5.9 5.0
Nominal rates (Selic) 8.75% 10.75% 11.00% 7.25% 10.00% 10.75% 8.92%
Industrial Production % -7.4% 10.5% 0.4% -2.6% 1.3% 2.5% 3.1%
Unemployment rate % 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6%
BRL (R/US$) average 2.00 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.35 2.55
BRL (R/US$) eop 1.74 1.67 1.88 2.04 2.35 2.40 2.65
Exports (US$ Bn) 153.0 201.9 256.0 242.6 242.2 248.9 350.0
Imports (US$ Bn) 127.6 181.8 226.2 223.1 239.6 242.0 321.4
Trade balance (US$ Bn) 25.4 20.1 29.8 19.4 2.6 6.9 28.6
Current account (US$ Bn) -24.3 -47.3 -52.5 -54.2 -81.1 -73.2 -89.7
Current account % of GDP -1.6% -2.3% -2.1% -2.4% -3.6% -3.2% -3.3%
International Reserves (US$ Bn) 239.1 288.6 352.0 378.6 373.5 382.8 434.1
FDI (US$ Bn) 25.9 48.5 66.7 65.3 62.0 60.0 72.7
CRB (Average) 246.0 278.2 334.3 301.3 287.7 280.5 n/a
Crude Oil (Brent US$/b) - Average 61.9 79.6 111.1 112.0 109.0 105.0 n/a
Fiscal balance % of GDP 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.5 2.0
Net Public debt % of GDP 42.1 39.1 36.4 35.1 35.0 35.5 37.5
Credit outstanding %YoY 15.2 20.6 19.0 16.2 14.6 13.2 10.5
Non-performing loans
Households 7.7% 5.7% 7.4% 7.9% 6.5% 7.2% 5.8%
Companies 3.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 4.2% 2.9%
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Updated 16th January, 2014
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