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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Macro-Industrial Working Group 2
Macro-Industrial Working Group
Macroeconomic Analysis Team: Kay Smith, Team Leader, Elizabeth Sendich,
Russ Tarver, and Vipin Aurora
September 11, 2012 | Washington, DC
Macro section
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Overview
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 2
• The overall macroeconomic outlook
• The detailed industrial production outlook
• Summary employment and commercial floor space outlook
• Concluding remarks
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Macroeconomic Explanations for Industrial
Output Growth
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 3
• Exports grow faster than imports so more of industrial output
satisfied domestic demand
• Compared to AEO2012, imports grow more slowly than
exports. In the AEO2012, imports grow by 4.3 percent (2012
to 2040), while exports grow by 5.7 percent. For the
preliminary AEO2013, imports grow by 3.9 percent while
exports grow by 5.5 percent. So compared to the AEO2012,
this year more of the industrial output again satisfies
domestic demand.
• More detailed inclusion of increased unconventional natural
gas impacts on other industries, primarily concentrated in
bulk chemicals, primary metals and metal based durables.
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National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM)
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 4
NEMS MAM
NEMS Macro
Baseline
Variables
Macroeconomic Submodule runs
the New Scenario using new Energy
Inputs from NEMS
NEMS
Energy
Variables
Industry Submodule runs the New
Scenario of values of shipments by
industry sectors
MAM applies
the ratios of the
New Scenario
values over the
Baseline values
onto the Macro
Baseline
variables to
obtain solution Employment Submodule runs the
New Scenario of employment by
sector
Regional Submodule and Commercial
Floorspace Submodule
MAM variables for use
as input to NEMS
NEMS
Modules
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Preliminary prices
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 5
Price Index (1982=1) Average crude oil price ($ per barrel)
Source: ref2012/d020112c and ref2013/d090612a
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 Natural Gas
Electricity
All Fuels
Crude Oil
AEO2012
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U.S. GDP growth rates
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 6
Annual % change
Source: BEA and ref2013/d090612a
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
30 Moving Average Annual Growth
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U.S. GDP comparison with other forecasts
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 7
Annual % change
Sources: ref2012/d020112c, ref2013/d090612a, CBO, IHS-GI, Blue Chip, OASDI, OMB, INFORUM
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040
AEO2012 AEO2013
CBO January 2012 Global Insight August 2012
Blue Chip March 2012 OASDI Aug. 2011
OMB January 2012 INFORUM May 2012
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Macroeconomic indicators
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 8
Annual growth rate (per cent)
Source: ref2013/d090612a
2.53%
0.74%
1.90%
2.63%
0.75%
1.99%
2.63%
0.71%
2.00%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Real GDP Labor Force Output per Hour in Nonfarm Business
AEO2013
AEO2012
AEO2011
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Components of GDP
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 9
Growth rate within period (% per year)
Source: ref2013/d090612a
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-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1995-2010 2010-2020 2020-2040
Real GDP Personal Consumption Investment Imports Exports Government
Trade by category
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 10
Growth rate within period (% per year)
Source: ref2013/d090612a
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
2012-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40
Industrial supplies
Capital goods
Autos
Consumer goods
Pastels are Imports,
Darker are Exports
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Services
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 12
Billion 2005$
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Industrial sector (non-service)
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 13
Billion 2005$
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Primary metals
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 14
Billion 2005$
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Bulk chemicals
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 15
Billion 2005$
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Paper
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 16
Billion 2005$
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
Do NOT distribute or cite
Non-metallic minerals*
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 17
Billion 2005$
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a; * also known as stone, clay, and glass
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Metal-based durables
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 18
Billion 2005$
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Transportation Equipment Computers and Electronics
Machinery Fabricated Metals
Electrical Equipment and Appliances
Employment and
commercial floor space
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 19 Do NOT distribute or cite
Manufacturing employment
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 20
Millions of persons
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Total employment
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 21
Millions of persons
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Commercial floor space
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 22
Billion square feet
Source: ref2012/d020112c and ref2013/d090612a
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2012
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For more information
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 23
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
EIA Information Center
Our average response time is within three
business days.
Kay Smith
Elizabeth Sendich
(202) 586-8800
24-hour automated information line about EIA
and frequently asked questions.
(202) 586-1132
(202) 586-7145
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Bulk chemicals details
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 25
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Organic
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Inorganic
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Bulk chemicals details (cont.)
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 26
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Resins and Synthetic Fibers
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Agricultural Chemicals
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Primary metals details
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 27
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Iron and Steel
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Aluminum
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
Do NOT distribute or cite
Non-metallic minerals details
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 28
Source: IHS-GI, ref2012/d020112c, and ref2013/d090612a
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Glass
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Cement
GI Baseline for AEO2013
GI Baseline for AEO2012
AEO2012
AEO2013
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Population and disposable income
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 29
Index (2012=1)
Source: ref2013/d090612a
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Population
Disposable Income
Per-Capita Disposable Income
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Housing starts
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 30
Millions of units
Source: ref2013/d090612a
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mobile Homes Single Family Multi Family Total Housing Starts
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Vehicle sales
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 31
Index (2007=1)
Source: ref2013/d090612a
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Sales of New Light Duty Vehicles Population Aged 16 and over
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Transportation equipment sub-industries
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 32
Autos (3361)
Aerospace (3364)
Auto parts (3363)
Ship and boat (3366)
Auto body and trailer (3362) Other (3369)
Railroad (3365)
Shipments (Billion $)
Source: Annual Survey of Manufacturing 2010, U.S. Census Bureau
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