Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Macroeconomic Indicators

Real GDP (chained 2009 dollars, trillions) Real GDP growth (percentage change of log)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

14

15

16

2015 Q4: 16.5T

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−10

−5

0

5

2015 Q4: 1.4%

FRED: GDPC1 D1(ln(FRED: GDPC1))

Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index Non-manufacturing index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201630

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Mar 2016: 51.8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201630

40

50

60

70

Mar 2016: 59.8

Quandl: ISM/MAN PMI FRED: NMFBAI

Industrial production index (2012=100) Capacity utilization (percentage of capacity)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201685

90

95

100

105

Feb 2016: 104.2

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201665

70

75

80

Feb 2016: 75.4

Quandl: FRED/INDPRO Quandl: FRED/TCU

briandew.wordpress.com — Updated: April 9, 2016

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Personal savings rate (percentage of disposable income) Inventories to sales ratio

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2

4

6

8

10

12

Feb 2016: 5.4%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

Jan 2016: 1.40

Quandl: FRED/PSAVERT Quandl: FRED/ISRATIO

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) (% of GDP) PCE on durable goods (percentage of GDP)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

66.5

67

67.5

68

68.5

69

Feb 2016: 68.8%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

Feb 2016: 7.4%

Quandl: FRED/PCE / FRED/GDP Quandl: FRED/PCEDG / FRED/GDP

Corporate profits after taxes (percentage of GDP) Corporate profits after taxes (growth of log)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

5

6

7

8

9

10

2015 Q4: 7.6%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−4

−2

0

2

4

2015 Q4: -1.2%

Quandl: FRED/CPATAX / FRED/GDP D1(ln(Quandl: FRED/CPATAX))

Updated: April 9, 2016 2

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Nonfinancial corporate liabilities (percentage change of log) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−5

0

5

10

2015 Q4: 3.3%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201650

60

70

80

90

100

110

Mar 2016: 91.0

D1(ln(FRED: TLBSNNCB)) University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

Labor Market Indicators

Unemployment rate Labor force participation rate

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Mar 2016: 5.0%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

62

63

64

65

66

67

Mar 2016: 63%

FRED: UNRATE FRED: CIVPART

New jobless claims (weekly, thousands) Real median weekly wage (1982–84 dollars)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016200

300

400

500

600

700

Apr 02, 2016: 267,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

330

335

340

345

2015 Q4: 345

FRED: ICSA FRED: LES1252881600Q

Updated: April 9, 2016 3

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Wages and output (nonfarm business, 2005=100) Labor share of output (nonfarm business, 2005=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

90

100

110

120

130

Wages

Output

2015 Q4: Wages: 128.4 Output: 118

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

96

98

100

102

104

2015 Q4: 99.3

Quandl: FRED/PRS85006063, FRED/OUTNFB Quandl: FRED/PRS85006173

Equity Market Indicators

S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite Index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016500

1,000

1,500

2,000

50w ma

Apr 08, 2016: 2,047.60

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

50w ma

Apr 08, 2016: 4,850.69

Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX GSPC FRED: NASDAQCOM

Dow Jones Industrial Average (thousands) ...combined and indexed (2004=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

50w ma

Apr 08, 2016: 17,576.96

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

50

100

150

200

250

S&PNASDAQ

DJIA

Quandl: BCB/UDJIAD1

Updated: April 9, 2016 4

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

CBOE volatility index (VIX) Shiller index of price to earnings ratios

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

20

40

60

80

Apr 08, 2016: 15.4

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

15

20

25

Mar 2016: 25.54

CBOE: VIX Quandl: MULTPL/SHILLER PE RATIO MONTH

Interest Rates and Bond Market Indicators

Effective fed funds rate Fed excess reserves of depository corporations (USD billion)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

quad Apr 07, 2016: 0.37%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Mar 30, 2016: 2,318B

Quandl: FRED/DFF Quandl: FRED/EXCSRESNW

Cash and cash equivalent deposits (M2) as percentage of GDP Average rate of return on M2

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

50

55

60

65

70

Mar 2016: 69.6%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Mar 2016: 0.09%

Quandl: FRED/M2 / FRED/GDP Quandl: FRED/M2OWN

Updated: April 9, 2016 5

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

5-yr treasuries, real yield curve rates 2- and 10-year treasury constant maturity rates

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−2

0

2

4

Apr 07, 2016: -0.27%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2yr

10yr

Apr 07, 2016:2yr: 0.7%; 10yr: 1.7%

Quandl: USTREASURY/REALYIELD Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD

Yield spread (10 year treasury - 3 month t-bill) TED Spread (LIBOR over treasury)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−1

0

1

2

3

4

Apr 07, 2016: 1.47%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

Apr 01, 2016: 0.4%

Quandl: FRED/YIELD - FRED/BILLRATES Quandl: FRED/TEDRATE

AAA corporate bonds (yield) Corporate bonds total return index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

3

4

5

6

Apr 01, 2016: 3.73%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

Apr 07, 2016: 2,700.03

Quandl: MOODY/WAAAYLD Quandl: ML/TRI

Updated: April 9, 2016 6

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

High yield corporate bonds (yield) High yield corporate bonds (spread over 10yr treasury)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

5

10

15

20

25

Apr 07, 2016: 8.35%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

5

10

15

20

Apr 07, 2016: 6.65%

Quandl: ML/USTRI Quandl: ML/USTRI - USTREASURY/YIELD

Government and Policy Indicators

Total public debt (percentage of GDP) Economic policy uncertainty index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

60

70

80

90

100

110

2015 Q4: 104.2%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

50

100

150

200

250

Mar 2016: 118.3

FRED: GFDEGDQ188S Baker, Bloom, and Davis: Economic Policy Uncertainty

Federal Government deficit (percentage of GDP) Defense and space IP (2012=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−12

−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

2015 Q4: -3.8%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

70

80

90

100

Dec 2015: 92.7

Quandl: FRED/ (GRECPT - GEXPEND) / GDP Quandl: FED/IP B52300 S

Updated: April 9, 2016 7

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Prices

Consumer price index (CPI), 12-month % change CPI major components, 12-month % change

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−2

0

2

4

6

Feb 2016: 1% −15 −10 −5 0 5

Healthcare

Housing

All-Items CPI

Apparel

Food

Transportation

Energy

3.5

2.1

1

0.9

0.9

−3.6

−12.7

3

2.1

1.3

−0.6

0.9

−0.6

−6.5

February 2016 January 2016

D1(FRED: CPIAUCSL) D1(FRED: CPI Indexes)

Producer price index (PPI), 12-month % change PPI selected components, 12-month % change

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−20

−10

0

10

20

Feb 2016: -5% −15 −10 −5 0

Chemicals

Lumber & Wood

Rubber & Plastic

All-commod. PPI

Farm Products

Metals

Energy

−2

−2.1

−2.3

−5

−6.6

−9.1

−17.1

−1.8

−2.4

−2.6

−4.9

−7.9

−11

−14.7

February 2016 January 2016

D1(FRED: PPIACO) D1(FRED: PPI Indexes)

Oil price (USD per barrel, WTI) PPI growth: metals (percentage change)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Apr 08, 2016: $39.72

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−20

−10

0

10

20

Feb 2016: -9.1%

Quandl: CHRIS/CME CL1 FRED: WPU10

Updated: April 9, 2016 8

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Average sales price for new houses (thousands of USD) Food price (world, 2002–04=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

250

300

350

400

Feb 2016: $348,900

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Mar 2016: 151

Quandl: FRED/ASPNHSUS FAO: FFPI

Gold Price (USD) Silver Price (USD)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Apr 08, 2016: $1,235.00

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

10

20

30

40

50

Apr 08, 2016: $15.16

Quandl: LBMA/GOLD Quandl: LBMA/SILVER

Trade and External Sector Indicators

Trade weighted dollar (1973=100) Indirect exchange rates (USD-CUR)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201665

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Apr 01, 2016: 90.07

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

EUR

GBP

CAD

JPY(100)

FRED: DTWEXM Quandl: CURRFX/USD(CUR)

Updated: April 9, 2016 9

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Current account balance (percentage of GDP) Net international investment position (USD, billion)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−6

−5

−4

−3

−2

2015 Q4: -2.6%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−8,000

−6,000

−4,000

−2,000

2015 Q4: -7,357B

Quandl: FRED/NETFI / FRED/GDP FRED: IIPUSNETIA + IIPUSNETIQ

Balance on advanced tech. (percentage of GDP) Trade balance (percentage of GDP)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−0.5

−0.4

−0.3

−0.2

Jan 2016: -0.5%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−5

−4

−3

−2

Feb 2016: -2.6%

Quandl: USCENSUS/IE 0007 / FRED/GDP Quandl: FRED/BOPGSTB / FRED/GDP

Updated: April 9, 2016 10

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Exchange rates

Indirect exchange rates against the US Dollar

Currency As of: Rate1

1 year% ch.

1 month% ch.

1 week% ch.

1 day% ch.

1 yearhigh

1 yearlow

USD - EUR 2016-04-07 0.879 −0.82 −2.45 0.05 0.27 0.946 0.863USD - GBP 2016-04-07 0.711 8.68 2.24 1.21 0.57 0.721 0.630USD - JPY 2016-04-07 108.427 −14.68 −4.94 −2.94 −1.17 125.070 108.427USD - CNY 2016-04-07 6.453 3.99 −0.73 0.22 −0.28 6.590 6.105USD - CAD 2016-04-07 1.314 6.09 −0.73 0.97 0.45 1.458 1.223USD - AUD 2016-04-07 1.331 2.27 −0.29 2.04 1.29 1.457 1.284USD - CHF 2016-04-07 0.956 2.73 −2.78 −0.21 0.06 1.030 0.918USD - DKK 2016-04-07 6.544 −1.03 −2.62 −0.07 0.26 7.058 6.445USD - NZD 2016-04-07 1.474 5.09 −0.61 1.76 0.75 1.596 1.399USD - SEK 2016-04-07 8.160 −1.70 −2.85 0.52 0.13 8.766 8.099USD - NOK 2016-04-07 8.329 6.77 −0.97 0.20 0.16 8.946 7.646USD - RUB 2016-04-07 68.030 18.35 −2.76 0.52 0.26 82.900 53.240USD - BRL 2016-04-07 3.683 15.55 1.32 2.61 1.25 4.175 3.050USD - TRY 2016-04-07 2.864 3.97 −0.73 1.64 0.86 3.056 2.631USD - MXN 2016-04-07 17.880 12.15 0.22 3.45 1.42 19.140 15.256USD - ZAR 2016-04-07 15.245 18.16 −0.19 4.01 1.09 16.870 12.097USD - NGN 2016-04-07 196.450 −1.22 −0.41 −1.30 0.36 200.086 1.000USD - EGP 2016-04-07 8.859 14.17 13.62 −0.24 0.05 8.927 7.591USD - THB 2016-04-07 35.204 4.14 0.07 0.32 0.06 36.495 33.579USD - INR 2016-04-07 66.779 4.10 −0.20 0.82 0.37 68.797 63.267USD - MYR 2016-04-07 3.940 5.03 −3.18 1.22 1.87 4.456 3.692USD - ARS 2016-04-07 14.472 37.66 −4.85 −2.16 −0.88 15.815 9.022USD - PHP 2016-04-07 46.155 2.65 −1.08 0.76 0.21 47.889 44.757USD - ILS 2016-04-07 3.784 −1.56 −2.62 0.90 −0.20 3.975 3.744

Quandl: CURRFX/USD(CUR)

1 The number of units of foreign currency required to purchase one U.S. dollar.

Brian DewWashington, DC

briandew.wordpress.combrianwdew@gmail.com

Updated: April 9, 2016 11