luẬn vĂn thẠc sỸ mÔ hÌnh vÀ tÍnh toÁn phỤc vỤ hoẠt ĐỘng thỊ trƯỜng...

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao

NI DUNGM U .......................................................................................................... 1Chng 1. Hin trng vn hnh h thng in Vit Nam ............................. 4

1.1 Cc n v tham gia vo hot ng in lc ..................................................41.1.1 S t chc v chc nng nhim v ca cc n v ..............................41.1.2 iu h thng in Vit Nam...............................................................6

1.2 H thng in Vit Nam.................................................................................91.2.1 Ph ti ........................................................................................................9

1.2.1.1 Cc thnh phn ph ti ..........................................................................91.2.1.2 Sn lng in nng ............................................................................131.2.1.3 Cng sut nh .....................................................................................151.2.1.4 Biu ph ti mt ngy in hnh nm ............................................18

1.2.2 Ngun in ..............................................................................................191.2.2.1 Cng sut .............................................................................................191.2.2.2 Sn lng .............................................................................................25

1.2.3 Li in .................................................................................................321.3 Vn hnh h thng in Vit Nam ...............................................................37

1.3.1 Tnh hnh vn hnh ngun in ...............................................................371.3.1.1 Nguyn tc vn hnh chung.................................................................371.3.1.2 Giai on ma kh (t thng 1 n thng 6) .......................................381.3.1.3 Giai on ma l (t 16/06 n 15/10)................................................391.3.1.4 Giai on tch nc (t thng 10 n thng 12) ..................................40

1.3.2 Tnh hnh vn hnh li in ..................................................................401.3.2.1 H thng in 500kV...........................................................................401.3.2.2 Li in tuyn ti 220/110kV............................................................40

1.4 Vai tr ca nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam ..........................41Chng 2. S cn thit nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam..... 43

2.1 Khi qut v tnh hnh sn xut in ti cc tnh pha Nam Trung Quc ..............................................................................................................................43

2.1.1 Gii thiu chung ......................................................................................432.1.2 Tng quan v li in khu vc Nam Trung Quc ................................452.1.3 S pht trin ngun in khu vc ...........................................................472.1.4 Nhu cu ph ti khu vc..........................................................................48

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao

2.2 Lin kt li in gia hai quc gia.............................................................482.2.1 Hin trng lin kt li in....................................................................482.2.2 Lin kt li in d kin trong tng lai ..............................................51

2.3 Tnh hnh mua bn in hin nay .................................................................512.3.1 Chi ph mua in .....................................................................................512.3.2 Tnh hnh nhp khu in t Trung Quc ...............................................52

2.4 Vn hnh h thng in Vit Nam giai on 2011-2015.............................542.4.1 D liu u vo - Gi thit tnh ton .......................................................54

2.4.1.1 Tin cc cng trnh mi ..................................................................542.4.1.2 D bo ph ti .....................................................................................542.4.1.3 Lch sa cha ca cc nh my ...........................................................632.4.1.4 Tnh ton iu tit thy in................................................................642.4.1.5 Tnh hnh cung cp nhin liu ca cc nh my..................................642.4.1.6 Gi nhin liu v gi bn in ca cc nh my..................................652.4.1.7 Gii hn truyn ti gia cc khu vc...................................................67

2.4.2 Qu trnh x l Phng php tnh ton ................................................672.4.3 D liu u ra Kt qu tnh ton gi bin ............................................68

2.4.3.1 Phng n ph ti tng trng cao......................................................682.4.3.2 Phng n ph ti tng trng trung bnh...........................................732.4.3.3 Phng n ph ti tng trng thp ....................................................78

2.5 Kt lun ........................................................................................................83Chng 3. Gii php nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam nhm

p ng yu cu pht trin kinh t - x hi trong nc ..................................... 853.1 Hp ng mua bn in ...............................................................................85

3.1.1 Hp ng mua bn in ..........................................................................853.1.2 Hp ng mua bn in cp in p 110 kV ..........................................873.1.3 Hp ng mua bn in cp in p 220 kV ..........................................87

3.2 nh gi v tnh hnh nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam .........883.2.1 Th tc thc hin.....................................................................................883.2.2 Gi c v s n nh trong cung cp .......................................................90

3.3 Gii php nhp khu in t TQ vo Vit Nam...........................................903.3.1 Nng cao s ch ng cho cc n v .....................................................903.3.2 Nng cao cnh tranh trong vic mua bn in ........................................91

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao

3.3.3 Tng cng kt ni, lin kt li in ....................................................913.3.4 u t cc nh my in bn Trung Quc ..............................................923.3.5 Thnh lp y ban iu phi chung ..........................................................92

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 1

M U

1. S cn thit ca ti

Vit Nam ang l mt quc gia pht trin vi tc tng trng kinh tkh cao, trung bnh khong 6%/nm, tc tng trng tiu th in vokhong 15%/nm, trong khi tc tng ca ngun in l rt thp, khng thp ng ni nhu cu tiu th in tng trng qu nng. Trung bnh, sut u thin nay xy dng mt nh my nhit in than (l dng ngun in c chiph u t v vn hnh gn nh thp nht) vo khong 1.100 n 1.400USD/kW cng sut t vi iu kin ngun nhin liu s dng l than ni ado Tp on Cng nghip Than v Khong sn Vit Nam cung cp. Tuy nhin,theo d bo ca Vin Nng lng, ti nm 2025, Vit Nam gn nh s khai thchu ht tim nng thy in, ng thi phi nhp khu than cho nhu cu tiu th

trong nc, tng ng vi vic sut u t xy dng nh my nhit in thans tng cao. Nh vy, kh nng t sn xut in phc v nhu cu trong nc

s b hn ch ng k.

Khi kh nng t sn xut in tiu th trong nc gp kh khn th

vic xem xt mua in vi t cc quc gia ln cn l vic ht sc cn thit. Hinnay, Vit Nam ang nhp khu in t Trung Quc v vi cng sut khong

690MW t cc cp in p 110kV v 220kV, ring trong nm 2009 sn lngin nhp khu ln ti 4.102 triu kWh, chim gn 5% tng sn lng in tiu

th trn ton quc. Cng vi s pht trin ca ph ti in c nc, nhu cunhp khu in Trung Quc s cn tng cao trong tng lai.

Do , vic nghin cu thc trng nhp khu in gia Vit Nam vi

Trung Quc t a ra cc nh gi v xut nhm tip tc nhp khuin t Trung Quc mt cch hp l l yu cu ht sc thit thc.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 2

2. Mc ch nghin cu

Trn c s nghin cu tnh hnh cung cu in ca Vit Nam, thc trng

nhp khu in ca Vit Nam t Trung Quc nhng nm gn y, ti xut

mt s gii php tng cng nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam nhmp ng nhu cu pht trin kinh t - x hi ca Vit Nam nhng nm sp ti.

3. Nhim v nghin cu

i vi ti ny, c ba nhim v nghin cu nh sau:

- Tm hiu thc trng nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam;

- Nghin cu tng quan v cung cu in ca Vit Nam v s cn thit cavic nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam;

- a ra cc gii php nhm y mnh nhp khu in t Trung Quc v

Vit Nam p ng yu cu pht trin kinh t x hi ca Vit Nam.

4. i tng v phm vi nghin cu

i tng nghin cu ca ti l hot ng nhp khu in ca VitNam t th trng Trung Quc.

Phm vi nghin cu ca ti l tnh hnh nhp khu in t Trung Quc

vo Vit Nam trong giai on t 2005 2010 v xut mt s gii php v mnhm y mnh nhp khu in Trung Quc v Vit Nam trong giai on t

2010 n 2020.

5. Tnh hnh nghin cu

Cho ti nay, cha c mt cng trnh no nghin cu mt cch tng th v

vn nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam.

6. Phng php nghin cu:

- Thu thp cc ti liu v tnh hnh pht trin h thng in Vit Nam tnm 2005 ti nay v d bo pht trin trong thi gian sp ti; tm hiu cc thng

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 3

tin v cc d n ngun in ln ti pha Nam Trung Quc, cc cng trnh liin lin kt gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc.

- T s liu thc t, tin hnh phn tch, nh gi thy c tim nng

nhp khu in Trung Quc v Vit Nam vn cha c tn dng ht.

- Trn c s cc phn tch v nh gi trn, xut mt s gii php y

mnh nhp khu in Trung Quc.

7. Kt cu ca ti:

Ngoi cc phn M u, Kt lun, Ti liu tham kho, lun vn c chia

thnh ba chng nh sau:

Chng 1: Hin trng vn hnh h thng in Vit Nam

Chng 2: S cn thit nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam

Chng 3: Gii php y mnh nhp khu in t Trung Quc v Vit Nam

p ng yu cu pht trin kinh t x hi ca Vit Nam

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 4

Chng 1. Hin trng vn hnh h thng in Vit Nam1.1 Cc n v tham gia vo hot ng in lc

1.1.1 S t chc v chc nng nhim v ca cc n v

Tham gia vo hot ng in lc ti Vit Nam c nhiu n v, s tchc nh hnh sau:

Hnh 1.1: S t chc ca cc n v

Chc nng nhim v ca cc n v nh sau:

MOIT B Cng Thng: B Cng Thng l n v qun l nh nci vi cc vn lin quan n hot ng in lc. B Cng Thng c hai

n v cp di tham gia mt thit vo hot ng in lc l:

o ERAV Cc iu tit in lc: L n v gim st hot ng inlc v xy dng cc quy nh pht trin th trng in ti Vit Nam.

MOIT

ERAV

EVNBOT&IPP

TKVS

NLDCNPT PC NM

PVN

PVPower EPTC

IE

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 5

o IE Vin Nng lng: L n v lp quy hoch Tng s phttrin in Vit Nam

EVN Tp on in lc Vit Nam: L doanh nghip nh nc qunl rt nhiu khu trong hot ng in lc, EVN c cc thnh vin:

o NLDC Trung tm iu H thng in Quc gia: NLDC cnhim v ch huy vn hnh ton b h thng in Vit Nam.

o EPTC Cng ty Mua bn in: EPTC c nhim v mua in t ccnh my in v bn li cho cc Tng Cng ty in lc, m phncc hp ng mua bn in.

o NM Nh my in: Cc nh my in c nhim v sn xut ra

in nng v bn in cho EPTC.

o NPT Tng Cng ty truyn ti in Quc gia: NPT c trch nhimu t v qun l ton b li in truyn ti 500 kV, 220 kV.

o PC Tng Cng ty in lc: T trc 2009, c 11 Cng ty inlc. Tuy nhin, t thng 5/2010, khi phn phi in ca EVN c

c cu li gm c nm Tng Cng ty in lc l: Tng Cng ty in

lc min Bc, Tng Cng ty in lc min Trung, Tng Cng ty

in lc min Nam, Tng Cng ty in lc H Ni, Tng Cng tyin lc H Ch Minh. Cc PC c nhim v qun l li in 110kVtr xung, mua in t EPTC v bn in cho cc h tiu dng.

PVN Tp on Du kh Quc gia Vit Nam: L doanh nghip nhnc ch yu hot ng trong lnh vc thm d, khai thc, kinh doanh du kh.Tuy nhin trong nhng nm gn y, PVN bt u u t vo lnh vc pht in

(trc tip hoc thng qua n v thnh vin). Cng ty con ca PVN chu trchnhim chnh trong vic lp d n, u t, qun l cc nh my in ca PVN l

Tng Cng ty in lc Du kh Vit Nam:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 6

o PV Power Tng Cng ty in lc du kh Vit Nam: PVPowerl n v chuyn trch ca PVN trong lnh vc u t v qun l ccnh my in thuc PVN. Hin nay PV Power ang s hu v qun

l cm nh my in C Mau 1&2 (tng cng sut t 1500MW),cc nh my in Nhn Trch 1 (450MW), Nhn Trch 2 (750MW),

Thi Bnh 2 (1200MW), Vng ng 1 (1200MW), Ha Na (180MW),k rinh (200MW)...

TKV Tp on Than v Khong sn Vit Nam: L n v u t volnh vc pht in, hin nay TKV c nhiu nh my nhit in than hot ngv bn in cho EVN nh Sn ng (220MW), Na Dng (110MW), Cao

Ngn (150MW)...

S Tng Cng ty Sng : L n v u t vo lnh vc pht in,hin nay S c nhiu nh my thy in hot ng v bn in cho EVN nhthy in S San 3A (34MW), Hng Sn (42MW), Nm Chin (200MW)...

BOT&IPP: L cc nh my in c lp khc do nc ngoi hay cc chu t trong nc u t vo lnh vc pht in.

1.1.2 iu h thng in Vit Nam

Theo Quy trnh iu H thng in Quc gia, QT-11-2001 banhnh theo quyt nh s 56/Q-BCN ngy 26 thng 11 nm 2001 ca B trngB Cng nghip, vic iu hnh HT quc gia c chia thnh ba cp iu :

iu HT quc gia.

iu HT min.

iu li in phn phi.

Vi phn cp nh trn, h thng iu c t chc thnh cc Trungtm iu tng ng gm c:

Trung tm iu HT quc gia (QG).

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 7

Cc trung tm iu HT min: min Bc, min Trung, min Nam

trc thuc Trung tm iu HT Quc gia.

Cc iu li in phn phi ca Cng ty in lc H ni, Cng ty

in lc thnh ph H Ch Minh, Cng ty in lc Hi Phng, Cng tyin lc ng Nai, Cng ty Trch nhim hu hn mt thnh vin in

lc Ninh Bnh v cc in lc thuc cng ty in lc 1, cng ty in lc2, cng ty in lc 3.

S phn cp iu HT c trnh by ti Hnh 1.2:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 8

Cp iu M hnh t chc Quyn iu khin Quyn kim tra

iu Quc gia

- Cc NM ln- H thng in 500 kV- Tn s h thngin p cc nt chnh

- Cc NM khng thuc quyniu khin

- Li in 220 kV- Trm phn phi NM ln- ng dy ni NM vi HT

iu Min

- Cc NM c phn cp theoquy nh ring.

- Li in truyn ti 220-110-66kV

- Cng sut v cng NM- Cc nh my in nh, cc trm

diesel, b trong min

- Cc trm, D phn phi 110-66 kV phn cp cho iu li in phn phi iu khin

- Cc h s dng in quantrng trong li in phn phi

iu Li in phn

phi

- Cc trm, D phn phi 110-66kV phn cp cho iu li inphn phi iu khin

- Li in phn phi- Cc trm thy in nh, cc trm

diesel, trm b trong li inphn phi

- Cc trm, D phn phi cakhch hng iu khin.

Hnh 1.2: S phn cp iu HT

TT IU HT QUC GIA

TT IU HT

MIN BC

TT IU HT

MIN TRUNG

TT IU HT

MIN NAM

- IU CTLH NI, IU CTL HIPHNG- CC IU L TNH,THNH PHMIN BC

- CC IU L TNH,

THNH PHMIN TRUNG

- IU CTLTP. HCM, IU

CTL NGNAI

- CC IU L TNH,

THNH PHMIN NAM

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 9

1.2 H thng in Vit Nam

Trong cng cuc i mi, cng nghip ho hin i ho t nc, ngnhin khng ngng pht trin nhm p ng nhu cu tiu th in ngy cngcao trong mi lnh vc i sng x hi.

1.2.1 Ph ti

1.2.1.1 Cc thnh phn ph ti

Ph ti ca h thng in Vit Nam c phn chia thnh nm thnh phn

nh sau: in cp cho ngnh cng nghip v xy dng, thng mi v dch v,qun l tiu dng v dn c, nng lm nghip v thu sn, cc hot ng khc.Vi c trng Vit Nam l mt nc ang pht trin, tng bc cng nghipha, hin i ha, t trng in cp cho cng nghip v xy dng l ln nht,tip theo l thnh phn in cp cho qun l v tiu dng dn c. Tuy nhin, ttrng cc thnh phn ph ti phn b khng ng u v bin ng qua tngnm. V d t trng cc thnh phn ph ti nm 2009 nh sau:

- in cp cho ngnh cng nghip & xy dng: t 37,34 t kWh, chim ttrng 49,95% in thng phm, tng 12,63% so vi nm 2008.

- in cp cho Thng nghip v dch v: 3,51 t kWh, chim t trng4,72% in thng phm, tng 9,03% so cng k 2008;

- in cp cho qun l v tiu dng dn c: 29,98 t kWh, chim t trng

40,10% in thng phm, tng 13,04% so vi nm 2008.

- in cp cho nng lm nghip v thu sn: 700 triu kWh, chim t trng0,94%, in thng phm, tng 7,43 % so cng k 2008.

- in cp cho cc hot ng khc: 3,22 t kWh, chim t trng 4,31%

in thng phm, tng 37,95% so vi nm 2008.

Cc thnh phn cu thnh ph ti c th hin biu sau ti hnh 3.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 10

Cc hot ngkhc

4.31% Qun l & Tiu

dng dn c40.10%

Thng nghip& K.Sn NH

4.70%

Cng nghip &Xy dng49.95%

Nng,lm nghip &Thu sn,

0.94%

Hnh 1.3: C cu ph ti nm 2009 1

Bng 1.1: Chi tit sn lng in thng phm cc cng ty in lc.2

IN THNG PHM 2009

Nm2008

Nm 2009 So snh

Thchin

K hoch Thc hinVi nm

2008

Ton EVN 65,930 72,320 74,761 113,39%

Nng,Lm nghip & Thu sn 651749

700 107,43%

Cng nghip & Xy dng 33,156 36,188 37,342 112,63%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 3,222 3,616 3,512 109,03%

Qun l & Tiu dng dn c 26,524 29,273 29,982 113,04%Cc hot ng khc 2,337 2,493 3,225 137,97%

CTL 1 14,629 15,268 15,813 108,10%

Nng,Lm nghip & Thu sn 252 198 214 85,05%

Cng nghip & Xy dng 6,951 8,146 7,989 114,94%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 273 275 269 98,37%

Qun l & Tiu dng dn c 6,804 6,319 6,946 102,09%Cc hot ng khc 350 330 395 113,09%

CTL 2 16,980 18,980 19,554 115,16%

1 Tp on in lc Vit Nam, Bo co vn hnh h thng in nm 2009, H Ni 20092 Tp on in lc Vit Nam, Bo co vn hnh h thng in nm 2009, H Ni 2009

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 11

IN THNG PHM 2009

Nm2008

Nm 2009 So snh

Thchin

K hoch Thc hinVi nm

2008


Cng nghip & Xy dng 9,615 10,234 11,140 115,87%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 473 560 520 110,02%


CTL 3 4,735 5,407 5,326 112,48%


Cng nghip & Xy dng 1,721 1,842 1,963 114,05%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 182 213 186 102,19%


CTL HN 5,985 7,541 7,889 131,80%


Cng nghip & Xy dng 1,930 2,383 2,480 128,53%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 522 588 570 109,11%


CTL TP HCM 12,365 13,000 13,282 107,41%


Cng nghip & Xy dng 5,555 5,700 5,694 102,49%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 1,469 1,605 1,588 108,09%


CTL HI PHNG 2,303 2,480 2,649 115,02%Nng,Lm nghip & Thu sn 6 9 7 118,58%

Cng nghip & Xy dng 1,405 1,475 1,576 112,20%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 69 112 122 176,17%

Qun l & Tiu dng dn c 756 816 864 114,34%Cc hot ng khc 67 67 79 118,31%

CTL NG NAI 4,832 5,112 5,287 109,43%

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 12

IN THNG PHM 2009

Nm2008

Nm 2009 So snh

Thchin

K hoch Thc hinVi nm

2008


Cng nghip & Xy dng 3,748 3,908 4,048 107,99%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 63 68 65 103,04%

Qun l & Tiu dng dn c 882 984 1,004 113,75%Cc hot ng khc 94 102 111 118,89%

CT TNHH MTV L NINH BNH 675 844 792 117,46%Nng,Lm nghip & Thu sn 11 13 10 92,47%

Cng nghip & Xy dng 448 585 522 116,32%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 5 6 6 132,64%


CT TNHH MTV L HI DNG 1,516 1,630 1,643 108,31%


Cng nghip & Xy dng 951 1,005 1,001 105,26%

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 16 18 17 105,15%


CT TNHH MTV L NNG 997 1,123 1,154 115,72%

Nng,Lm nghip & Thu sn 1 2 1

Cng nghip & Xy dng 462 520 552

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 83 97 86

Qun l & Tiu dng dn c 407 455 455Cc hot ng khc 44 49 60

C. T CP L KHNH HO 873 935 947 108,37%Nng,Lm nghip & Thu sn 3 4 5

Cng nghip & Xy dng 370 390,3 377

Thng nghip & K.Sn NH 67 73,1 85

Qun l & Tiu dng dn c 395 426,1 432Cc hot ng khc 37 41,2 47

IN BN NI B 46,84 51.252

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 13

1.2.1.2 Sn lng in nng

Sn lng in nng tiu th ca h thng in Vit Nam tng rt mnh qua ccnm. S tng trng s c minh ha c th cc bng s liu v biu diy:

Bng 1.2: Sn lng in nng qua cc nm (tr.kWh)3

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

HT

QG31137 36410 41275 46790 53647 60623 69071 76593 87040

Bc 12084 13913 15811 17603 20074 22528 25570 28516 33275

Trung 3042 3500 3977 4435 4979 5665 6410 7223 8377

Nam 15794 18692 21261 24407 27946 31716 36053 39493 44411

Bng 1.3: Tng trng (%)4

A01 - 00 A02 - 01 A03 - 02 A04 - 03 A05 - 04 A06 - 05 A07 - 06 A08 - 07 A09 - 08

HT

QG15,15 16,93 13,36 13,36 14,65 13,00 13,94 10,89 13,64

Bc 14,04 15,14 13,64 11.33 14,04 12,22 13,50 11,52 16,69

Trung 16,91 15,06 13,63 11,52 12,27 13,78 13,15 12,68 15,98

Nam 16,48 18.35 13,74 14,80 14,50 13,49 13,67 9,54 12,45

Qua bng s liu trn, c th thy tc tng trng ca ton h thngin Vit Nam tng trng kh u qua cc nm. Trong giai on t 2000-2009,trung bnh mt nm sn lng in tiu th tng khong 13,9%/nm. Nm 2008mc tng trng so vi nm 2007 l thp nht trong c giai on do nm2008 Vit Nam cng nh cc nc khc trn th gii b nh hng mnh bisuy thoi kinh t. Tuy nhin, ti nm 2009, tc tng trng tiu th in tng ln gn bng mc trung bnh trong c giai on. Biu di y s minh


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 14

ha r hn s tng trng sn lng in pht tng nm trong giai on t2000-2009:

Hnh 1.4: Biu tng trng sn lng5

Nhn vo biu tng trng sn lng giai on 2000-2009 trong hnhtrn, c th thy cng gn y, tc tng trng sn lng in pht cng lndo nhu cu tiu th in ca ngi dn cng nh cc ngnh cng nghip tngmnh. S tng trng v ph ti gy ra mt p lc rt ln ln ngnh in. trongphn sau ca lun vn ny s trnh by tip v s tng trng v hin trng cangun in, qua s thy r hn s mt cn i gia cung v cu trong ngnhin hin nay.

5 Tp on in lc Vit Nam, Bo co vn hnh h thng in nm 2009, H Ni 2009

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 15

Hnh 1.5: T trng ph ti cc min6

Ba min Bc, Trung Nam c t trng ph ti tng i n nh trong sutgiai on t 1995 ti 2009. Min Trung l khu vc c ph ti tiu th thp nhttrong c nc. Min Bc v min Nam l hai trung tm ph ti ln, c bit lkhu vc min Nam (t nm 2000 tr i, ph ti khu vc min Nam chimtrn 50% t l ph ti c nc). Min Bc mc d c t trng ph ti thp hn,nhng ngun in khu vc pha Bc cng khng p ng c nhu cu ph titi ch. Do , trong nhng nm gn y, in nng thng xuyn phi ctruyn ti ngc t min Nam ra min Bc gy ra p lc ln ln ng dytruyn ti 500kV. ng thi, khu vc pha Bc phi nhp khu thm in TrungQuc p ng cho cc tnh ln cn bin gii. Ni dung ny s c trnh byr hn phn 1.2.3. (v li in) v Chng 2 (S cn thit phi nhp khuin t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam).

1.2.1.3 Cng sut nh

Tng ng vi sn lng in tiu th, cng sut nh tiu th ca h

thng in Vit Nam tng rt mnh qua cc nm.

Bng 1.4: Cng sut nh qua cc nm (MW)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

HT 5655 6552 7408 8283 9255 10187 11286 12636 13867


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 16

QG

Bc 2461 2880 3221 3494 3886 4233 4480 5066 6207

Trung 613 684 773 853 979 1056 1167 1259 1482

Nam 2656 3112 3529 4073 4539 5007 5794 6258 7001

Bng 1.5: Tng trng (%)

DP01 - 00 DP02 - 01 DP03 - 02 DP04 - 03 DP05 - 04 DP06 - 05 DP07 - 06 DP08 - 07 DP09 - 08

HT

QG15,57% 15,86% 13,06% 11,81% 11,74% 10,07% 10,79% 11,96% 9,74%

Bc 12,17% 17,03% 11,84% 8,48% 11,22% 8,94% 5,83% 13,07% 22,52%

Trung 12,68% 11,58% 13,01% 10.35% 14,77% 7,87% 10,56% 7,84% 17,71%

Nam 18,25% 17,17% 13,40% 15,42% 11,44% 10.31% 15,72% 8,00% 11,87%

Tng t nh sn lng in, tc tng trng cng sut nh tiu th

tng rt nhanh trong c giai on t 2000-2009. Trung bnh mt nm, cng sutnh tng ti 11,8%. T nm 2008 ti 2009, cng sut nh dng nh "chng"

li do trong nm 2009, cc ngun mi cha kp vo vn hnh cung cp thmcng sut cho h thng, do ngun in cung cp cho ph ti hu ht l tndng pht cc ngun in c v tng cng s dng cc ngun in t tin nhnhit in du, diesel. Cng trong nm 2009, tnh trng ct in lun phinthng xuyn xy ra trn din rng trn c nc, gy nh hng nng n tisinh hot thng ngy ca ngi dn v hot ng kinh doanh ca cc doanhnghip.

Biu di y s minh ha r rng hn v s tng trng cng sut nhtrong tng nm trong giai on 2000-2009:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 17

Hnh 1.6: Biu tng trng cng sut7

So snh biu tng trng cng sut nh vi biu tng trng snlng s thy ngay tc tng trng cng sut nh khng theo kp tc tngtrng sn lng. iu cng minh ha thm cho vic h thng in VitNam ngy cng "ui sc" trong vic m rng thm cc ngun in trong nc p ng nhu cu ph ti. Bi ton nhp khu in Trung Quc v Vit Namcng tr nn cp thit hn p ng nhu cu tng trng ca nn kinh t.

Hnh 1.7: T trng ph ti cc min8


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 18

1.2.1.4 Biu ph ti mt ngy in hnh nm 2009

Vit Nam c v tr a l tng i phc tp, tri di v nm st b bin,c nhiu vng kh hu khc nhau... cc khu vc trong c nc pht trin khng

ng u dn n cng sut ph ti cc khu vc khc nhau c s chnh lchln. Ph ti ch yu tp trung vng ng bng, ni cc tnh v thnh ph ccng nghip pht trin. Ti nhng vng ny cng sut ca ph ti tng i cao,t l cng sut ph ti ti thi im thp im v cao im (Pmin/Pmax) khngln lm khong 0,7, l do ph ti cng nghip ti cc khu vc ny pht trin.i vi nhng vng min ni hoc sn xut nng nghip, khi cng nghipkhng pht trin th t l Pmin/Pmax khong 0,25-0,3 do ph ti vo cao imch yu l ph ti sinh hot. i vi h thng in Vit Nam th Pmin/Pmaxkhong 0,6. iu ny gy kh khn rt ln trong vn hnh kinh t h thng in,v vo thp im ca h thng ta khng khai thc cao c cc ngun in rtin cn vo cao im ca h thng ta phi chy cc ngun in t tin phnh, c khi phi hn ch cng sut ph ti vo cao im do thiu ngun in vxut hin gii hn cng sut trn cc ng dy truyn ti, my bin p .... Hnh

1.8: l biu ph ti mt ngy in hnh ca h thng in Vit Nam.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 19

Hnh 1.8: Biu ph ti mt ngy in hnh nm 2009

1.2.2 Ngun in

p ng c nhu cu ph ti, ngun in pht trin khng ngng c

v cng sut t v sn lng. Trong mc ny s trnh by c th v hin trngngun in ca Vit Nam v s tng trng t nm 2000-2009, bao gm c vcng sut t v sn lng.

1.2.2.1 Cng sut

Nm 1995, tng cng sut t HT quc gia l 4461 MW, n nm 2009l 17521 MW, tng xp x 3,9 ln. Hnh 1.9: th hin tng quan gia tngtrng ngun v ph ti cc i. y l hnh nh tng qut v kh nng p ngti ca h thng qua cc nm. Tuy nhin, Hnh 1.9: ch th hin gi tr cng sutcc i trong nm (thng vo khong thng 11 hoc thng 12) so vi tngngun ln nht trong nm.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 20

4461 4910 49105285 5726

6233

78718884

1001010626

1157612270

13512

15763

17521

1386712636

1128610187

92558283

74086552

56554893

43293875359531772796

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

nm

MW

Pt Pkdng Ph Ti

Hnh 1.9: Tng quan gia tng trng ngun v ph ti cc i9

(Ch thch:

Pt: l tng cng sut thit k ca ton b cc nh my in trong hthng in;

Pkhdng: l tng cng sut kh dng ca ton b cc nh my in trongh thng in (cng sut kh dng lun nh hn do c s lo ha trong

my mc, thit b dn ti nh my in khng th pht cng sut bng

cng sut thit k);

Ph ti: l tng cng sut nhu cu ph ti ton quc.)

Nhn vo hnh nh tng quan gia tng trng ngun v ph ti cc i,

v hnh thc c th thy nh vy ngun in quc gia c th p ng c tonb nhu cu ph ti. Tuy nhin, trong thc t khng phi 100% cc nh my inlun lun pht cng sut kh dng do cc nguyn nhn sau:

C s c trong khi vn hnh nh my in.


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 21

i vi thy in: Vit Nam l nc nhit i, do hai ma ma

v ma kh c s khc bit r rt. Vo u ma ma, thy in c

th c tn dng khai thc ti a. Tuy nhin, vo cui ma ma,thy in phi c vn hnh mt mc hp l m bo tchnc h cha nhm c th duy tr vn hnh lin tc vo ma kh.

i vi nhit in: Thi gian bo tr, bo dng tng i di dnti khi mt t my nhit in tm thi dng my bo tr, bodng, h thng s b thiu ht mt lng cng sut ng k (cc t

my nhit in a s c quy m cng sut ln hn cc t my thy

in).

Do cc nguyn nhn trn, nn thc t ngun cng sut ca h thng inquc gia v c bn l khng p ng nhu cu ph ti, c bit trong nhng

nm gn y khi nhu cu ph ti tng trng t bin do Vit Nam thc hin

ci cch c mt thi gian tng i di, km theo vic gia nhp WTO. Vic dn ti tnh trng ct in thng xuyn din ra, c bit vo ma h (l makh, khi khng th tn dng c ngun thy in). Vic ct in ngoi vicnh hng ti i sng ca ngi dn, doanh thu ca cc doanh nghip hin hu

m cn nh hng rt xu ti mi trng u t, gy ra s ngn ngi, do d cacc nh u t khi mun tham gia kinh doanh.

Trong nm 2009, s tham gia ca cc ngun mi c bit l cc ngun muangoi lm thay i ng k t trng cc thnh phn cng sut t ngun trongh thng in. T trng thnh phn tua bin kh v in mua ngoi tng ln. Tuy

nhin thnh phn thy in vn chim t trng ng k (35,15%). T trng ccthnh phn ngun in c th hin Hnh 1.10:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 22

T hy in38%

Khc3%

Nhp khu4%

T uabin kh38%

Nhit in than11%

Nhit in du3%

Nhit in chykh3%

Hnh 1.10: Biu c cu cng sut t cc ngun nm 200910


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 23

Bng 1.6: T trng cng sut t cc thnh phn ngun in qua cc nm

Nm H ThngThu in Nhit in than Nhit in du Tua bin kh Diesel v T nh Ngoi EVN

P % P % P % P % P % P %

2000 6235 3234 51,9 645 10.3 200 3,2 1250 20,0 454 7.3 452 7,2

2001 7872 4069 51,7 645 8,2 200 2,5 2028 25,8 454 5,8 476 6,0

2002 8893 4069 45,8 1245 14,0 200 2,2 2428 27.3 454 5,1 497 5,6

2003 10010 4069 40,6 1245 12,4 200 2,0 2467 24,6 454 4,5 1575 15,7

2004 10627 4069 38.3 1245 11,7 200 1,9 3084 29,0 454 4.3 1575 14,8

2005 11576 4069 35,2 1245 10,8 200 1,7 3084 26,6 454 3,9 2524 21,8

2006 12270 4383 35,7 1245 10,1 200 1,6 3262 26,6 454 3,7 2726 22,2

2007 13512 4393 32,5 1545 11,4 205 1,5 3248 24,0 454 3,4 3668 27,1

2008 15763 5257 33,4 1545 9,8 200 1.3 3197 20.3 454 2,9 5044 32,0

2009 17521 6173 35,2 1545 8,8 537 3,1 3197 18,2 500 2,9 5569 31,8

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 24

Bng 1.7: T trng cng sut kh dng cc thnh phn ngun in qua cc nm

Nm H ThngThu in Nhit in than Nhit in du Tua bin kh Diesel v T nh Ngoi EVN

P % P % P % P % P % P %

2000 5742 3286 57,2 605 10,5 186 3,2 1073 18,7 140 2,4 452 7,9

2001 7380 4121 55,8 605 8,2 186 2,5 1851 25,1 140 1,9 477 6,5

2002 7967 4121 51,7 705 8,8 186 2.3 2338 29.3 140 1,8 477 6,0

2003 9266 4193 45.3 805 8,7 186 2,0 3101 33,5 140 1,5 841 9,1

2004 10046 4193 41,7 1255 12,5 186 1,9 3431 34,2 140 1,4 841 8,4

2005 10982 4193 38,2 1255 11,4 186 1,7 2772 25,2 140 1.3 2436 22,2

2006 11595 4435 38,2 1205 10,4 186 1,6 2932 25.3 200 1,7 2637 22,7

2007 12948 4485 34,6 1505 11,6 186 1,4 2933 22,7 200 1,5 3639 28,1

2008 15125 5337 35.3 1505 10,0 186 1,2 2932 19,4 200 1.3 4965 32,8

2009 16813 6143 36,5 1485 8,8 516 3,1 2945 17,5 300 1,8 5424 32.3

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 25

1.2.2.2 Sn lng

Sn lng in pht ca ton h thng in nm 2009 l 87019 GWh (gmc sn lng in bn Campuchia). Tng ph ti ca HT Quc Gia l 86647GWh, tng trng so vi nm 2008 l 14,07 % trong in sn xut ca ccNM thuc EVN l 56581GWh, in mua ngoi l 25964 GWh v in muaTrung Quc l 4102 GWh chi tit ti bng sau:Bng 1.8: Sn lng in pht ton h thng nm 200911

Tng sn lng ton h thng (gm cct ti)

(a = b + h) 87,040 T l

Tng sn lng ton h thng (gm cin bn Campuchia) (b = d + f + g) 87,019 99,98%

Tng sn lng sn xut ca EVN vmua ngoi (ph ti HT Vit Nam) (c = d + e + g) 86,647 99,41%

Tng sn lng sn xut ca EVN (d) 56,581 65,01%

Tng sn lng EVN mua t cc nhmy ngoi ngnh (ti im giao nhn)

(e) 25,964 29,83%

Tng sn lng sn xut ca cc nh

my ngoi ngnh (ti u cc my pht)(f) 26,337 30,26%

Tng sn lng in mua Trung Quc (g) 4,102 4,71%

Tng sn lng in do hn ch cng

sut (do ct ti nh, F81, thiu

ngun)

(h) 20,4 0,02%

Tng sn lng in ca cc Cng ty

pht in c phn do EVN s hu c(i) 12,605 14,49%


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 26

phn chi phi

Tng SL in bn Campuchia (k) 373 0,43%

Bng 1.9: Sn lng in pht ca tng thnh phn ngun in trong nm 200912

Loi ngunSn lng

(GWh)T l (%)

Thu in 29977 34,45%

Nhit in than 12532 14,40%

Nhit in du (FO) 2551 2,93%

TBK chy kh 37117 42,65%

TBK chy du 249 0,29%

Nhit in chy kh 482 0,55%

Ngun khc 10 0,01%

Nhp khu Trung

Quc 4102 4,71%

Bng 1.10: Sn lng in pht ca cc nh my in t nm 2000 n nay 13

n v: Tr. kWh

Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Tng ton hthng 27040 31137 36410 41275 46790 53647 61533 68699 75955 87019

in EVN pht 24916 28433 33680 39244 40243 41185 46536 50658 52875 56581

in EVN mua 1541 1990 2035 1346 5983 10669 12245 15954 21318 25846


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 27

Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Hn ch 35 6,5 1 4,2 1,5 237,7 90 372 603 20

Thu in 14537 18170 18205 19004 17968 16432 19573 22698 25982 29977

Ho Bnh 8083 8447 8167 8597 8405 8165 7701 9100 10140 8526

Thc B 345 401 401 371 380 335 322 324 475 406

Tuyn Quang 64 1132 1240

Qung Tr 260 254 327

Vnh Sn 350 215 218 270 217 184 331 260 361 456

Sng Hinh 208 441 370 402 359 289 397 398 498 470

Pleikrong 67

Ialy 908 2975 3735 3394 3321 3034 3755 3413 3337 4049

S San 3 612 1130 1131 1342

Tr An 2232 2179 1847 1987 1742 1504 1946 2038 1661 2079

a Nhim 1289 1053 810 951 766 525 1033 1187 1244 1281

Thc M 932 927 832 831 637 581 896 899 762 979

Hm Thun 924 1112 1216 1054 838 1183 1186 824 1138

a Mi 400 468 708 558 494 682 630 497 654

i Ninh 1145 1296

A Vng 168 935

Sng Ba H 430

Bun kuop 895

Bun Tua Srah 84

Cn n 256 259 327 361 346 416

Srokphumieng 32 252 241 277

Se san 3A 7 345 400 463

S san 4 153

Bn Cc 41

Bnh in 90

Sng Cn 152

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 28

Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Bc Bnh 23

Nm Chin 2 7

T Nh 190 208 245 277 273 224 349 851 1368 1705

Nhit in than 3135 3219 4871 7193 7274 9305 10668 11275 11405 12532

Ph Li 1 2153 2220 2274 2579 2202 2459 2937 2832 2586 2907

Ph Li 2 1351 3202 3529 4299 4315 4198 4331 4450

Ung B 1 428 490 697 731 641 669 757 694 720 741

Ung B 2 520 532 897

Ninh Bnh 554 509 549 681 633 689 794 729 752 757

Hi Phng 14

Qung Ninh 55

Na Dng 70 389 709 744 695 710

Cao Ngn 70 445 761 805

Formosa 199 800 1086 1113 1028 1083

Sn ng 36

Cm Ph 76

Nhit in du 2939 3312 3028 2224 1802 2211 1637 2629 2252 2551

Th c 955 880 812 697 424 549 472 603 583 358

Cn Th 182 236 206 193 177 128 128 137 94 29

Mn 616

Hip Phc 1747 2100 1911 1194 1066 1424 955 1726 1464 1319

Amata 37 74 70 68 50 67 26 13 1 0

Buorbon 18 22 29 72 58 43 57 69 43 49

Ci Ln 27 81 66 48

Dung Qut 133

TBK chy kh +ui hi 4347 4425 8456 12130 18994 23920 26646 28457 32377 37117

B Ra 1550 1495 2212 2110 2145 2163 2011 1902 2039 2171

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 29

Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ph M 21 2797 1924 544 3467 4378 3525 6061 5844 6012 6213

Ph M 1 1006 5700 6388 6512 7166 6410 7993 7979 7841

Ph M 4 1595 2905 3199 3141 3421 2818

Ph M 3 166 4154 4442 4110 3883 5121 4582

Ph M 22 210 3719 4855 5004 4222 4958

C Mau 1+2 691 2994 6389

Nhn Trch 1 589 2145

TBK chy du 1518 1414 1187 163 250 446 220 543 183 249

B Ra 189 151 70 28 18 41 13 81 35 9

Ph M 21 569 451 522 13 21 114 50 132 43 19

Ph M 1 72 216 9 7 6 5 42 8 7

Ph M 4 32 108 12 68 17 3

Ph M 3 0

Ph M 22 1

C Mau 1+2 172

Nhn Trch 1 14

Th c 313 275 199 64 17 35 32 70 17 11

Cn Th 447 465 180 49 155 142 109 151 63 14

Diesel 240 90 86 29 43 16 25 42 15 10

Nhit in chy kh 278 502 511 454 432 463 655 684 521 482

V an 278 502 511 454 432 463 514 534 395 340

m Ph M 141 150 126 142

in EVN mua TQ 39 383 966 2630 3220 4102

in EVN bn

CPC 373

Bng 1.11: Sn lng chi tit cc nh my in nm 2009n v: Tr. kWh

Thng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Nm

Tng ton h thng 5657 5885 7012 7032 7221 7658 7835 8106 7548 7765 7489 7811 87019

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 30

Thng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Nm

in EVN pht 3705 3771 4282 4100 5014 5080 5292 5555 5192 5270 4769 4550 56581

in SX ngoi EVN 1952 2113 2730 2931 2207 2578 2543 2551 2356 2495 2721 3261 30439

in EVN mua 1676 1867 2447 2631 1858 2204 2110 2112 1932 2023 2239 2745 25846

Hn ch 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 3 2 3 1 3 20

Thu in 1426 1547 1671 1598 2767 2948 3269 3498 3323 3301 2536 2093 29977

Ho Bnh 479 506 356 422 955 845 1300 1353 1083 663 287 277 8526

Thc B 31 47 33 25 65 43 54 30 16 15 30 15 406

Tuyn Quang 77 94 64 83 173 172 250 139 61 40 57 29 1240

Qung Tr 19 20 34 31 25 23 23 28 27 44 36 17 327

Vnh Sn 45 41 44 43 33 42 34 30 23 32 44 46 456

Sng Hinh 49 42 44 44 47 44 33 30 14 26 45 51 470

Pleikrong 5 1 0 0 15 1 30 15 67

Ialy 97 169 267 190 312 344 337 428 477 537 498 392 4049

S San 3 30 53 82 63 106 116 119 151 162 191 143 125 1342

Tr An 31 71 127 84 162 238 226 295 298 310 151 86 2079

a Nhim 120 81 97 107 109 120 108 86 105 116 118 114 1281

Thc M 28 48 85 50 99 103 93 99 105 108 81 80 979

Hm Thun 46 56 87 77 108 142 90 95 115 170 62 89 1138

a Mi 25 30 47 44 63 81 57 60 70 93 34 49 654

i Ninh 110 94 92 75 101 150 75 86 91 153 176 91 1296

A Vng 100 76 60 69 71 77 24 57 77 144 108 72 935

Sng Ba H 32 34 54 74 80 80 76 430

Bun kuop 1 45 95 88 82 100 95 163 149 77 895

Bun Tua Srah 18 30 24 11 84

Cn n 13 13 24 20 30 47 43 57 53 53 37 26 416

Srokphumieng 8 11 19 14 20 34 30 34 30 33 25 18 277

Se san 3A 11 18 30 22 37 41 44 57 58 57 43 44 463

S san 4 40 113 153

Bn Cc 9 9 6 5 7 5 41

Bnh in 13 26 18 14 15 0 0 3 90

Sng Cn 10 32 40 38 31 152

Bc Bnh 1 13 9 23

Nm Chin 2 1 4 2 7

T Nh 105 75 80 87 136 138 187 195 204 196 175 128 1705

Nhit in than 1009 938 1034 1045 965 1047 949 986 1055 1103 1121 1278 12532

Ph Li 1 262 243 280 276 245 261 246 255 212 199 195 233 2907

Ph Li 2 399 358 366 396 372 366 367 368 369 384 335 371 4450

Ung B 1 68 71 81 43 44 76 38 41 60 79 75 66 741

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 31

Thng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Nm

Ung B 2 0 0 0 0 31 84 72 60 126 134 181 208 897

Ninh Bnh 70 64 74 69 65 66 65 63 50 55 55 60 757

Hi Phng 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 14

Qung Ninh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 32 11 55

Na Dng 65 61 66 71 58 43 35 37 66 71 63 75 710

Cao Ngn 73 61 65 83 63 69 36 68 73 69 70 74 805

Formosa 72 78 99 106 85 82 86 90 90 92 94 108 1083

Sn ng 0 0 3 1 1 1 5 2 5 13 1 3 36

Cm Ph 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 19 55 76

Nhit in du 64 131 306 384 175 166 141 217 227 134 275 331 2551

Th c 0 18 70 85 16 15 18 39 41 2 22 31 358

Cn Th 0 4 10 6 0 0 0 3 1 0 3 0 29

Mn 0 0 30 81 67 62 44 64 68 27 67 106 616Hip Phc 51 87 182 202 86 87 65 84 101 71 146 156 1319

Amata 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.19

Buorbon 13 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 11 49

Ci Ln 0 7 13 11 2 2 2 4 4 3 0 0 48

Dung Qut 0 0 0 0 4 0 11 23 12 29 28 27 133TBK chy kh + uihi 2911 3001 3577 3560 2904 3084 3092 2990 2480 2802 3063 3655 37117

B Ra 195 213 243 212 146 172 159 116 163 150 168 233 2171

Ph M 21 524 541 650 611 530 519 556 568 438 388 481 406 6213

Ph M 1 725 686 765 551 661 641 622 653 447 627 690 774 7841

Ph M 4 173 142 195 305 299 154 164 193 266 298 306 324 2818

Ph M 3 432 423 510 498 409 387 415 235 0 303 441 528 4582

Ph M 22 406 404 515 493 416 381 411 426 365 443 234 463 4958

C Mau 1+2 379 550 502 752 389 688 611 524 532 384 441 637 6389

Nhn Trch 1 76 43 197 137 54 141 154 275 268 208 301 291 2145

TBK chy du 0 3 41 33 22 8 8 17 35 22 59 2 249

B Ra 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 9

Ph M 21 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 9 0 1 0 19

Ph M 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 7

Ph M 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3

Ph M 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ph M 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

C Mau 1+2 0 2 41 23 13 4 1 10 6 15 55 1 172

Nhn Trch 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 8 0 0 0 14

Th c 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 0 11

Cn Th 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 0 14

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 32

Thng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Nm

Diesel 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 10

Nhit in chy kh 41 37 40 42 42 40 42 39 37 41 40 40 482

V an 28 26 28 31 30 28 30 28 28 28 27 28 340

m Ph M 13 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 13 12 12 142in EVN mua TrungQuc 207 227 342 368 346 363 332 359 390 362 395 411 4102

in EVN bn CPC 8 15 19 65 62 68 65 71 373

1.2.3 Li in

Cng vi s pht trin v ngun in, li in cng pht trin ng bp ng nhu cu ph ti.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 33

Hnh 1.11: S a l li truyn ti in quc gia

Bng 1.12: Tnh hnh pht trin li in qua cc nm

Cp in p 500 kV 220 kV 110 kV 66 kV

ng

dy1998 1488 2270 6213 312

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 34

Cp in p 500 kV 220 kV 110 kV 66 kV

[km] 1999 1528 2830 6430 330

2000 1528 2830 7134 267

2001 1528 3606 7522 208

2002 1528 4266 8123 85

2003 1528 4671 8591 33

2004 2023 4798 9339 33

2005 3265 5230 10874 33

2006 3286 5650 11053 33

2007 3286 6487 11409 0

2008 3286 7101 11751 0

2009 3438 8497 12145 0

My binp

1998 2700 4032 5834 631

[MVA] 1999 2700 5535 6132 657

2000 2700 6036 7737 658

2001 2700 7910 9427 577

2002 3150 9161 11621 501

2003 4050 10752 13740 150

2004 4050 12390 16572 150

2005 6150 14890 18459 150

2006 6600 15923 20656 150

2007 7050 17513 22238 68

2008 7050 18639 23834 38

2009 7500 19094 25862 38

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 35

H thng in Vit Nam l HT hp nht, HT ba min Bc, Trung,Nam c lin kt bi hai mch ng dy 500 kV. ng dy 500 kV gpphn to ln trong vic phi hp vn hnh cc ngun in trn h thng, gim chi

ph vn hnh, h tr d phng cng sut gia cc h thng in min, tng tin cy an ton trong cung cp in cng nh m bo cht lng in nng, toiu kin a cc nh my in mi vo vn hnh ng tin m bo cnbng cng sut v nng lng cho ton h thng.

Bng 1.13: Sn lng v cng sut truyn ti qua cc trm bin p 500kV

Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pht A 1332 974 911 1718 713 913 677 1289 1679 642

Ha Pmax 798 800 802 810 836 792 619 830 836 770

Bnh Nhn A 511 1154 1358 599 1575 1904 662 603 580 1740

Pmax 534 664 750 622 760 862 590 502 832 949

H Nhn A 142 946 1040 1389 1397 1520 1723 2030

Tnh Pmax 220 314 309 419 392 489 436

Pht A 8

Pmax 211

Nng Nhn A 923 1183 1361 1565 1788 1978 2082 2500 2543 2057

Pmax 200 250 292 327 376 506 495 508 553

Pht A 3 30 39 2 0 68 468 547 1606

Pleiku Pmax 26 2 133 89 34 353 373 688

Nhn A 709 655 989 942 1104 1490 729 458 399 189

Pmax 208 221 238 290 341 417 369 365 420

Ialy Pht A 903 2949 3700 3357 3265 2984 3605 3395 3323 4035

Pmax 360 540 720 720 720 857 727 741 738

Pht A 889 573 922 659 1169 387 7 4 4

Ph Pmax 514 540 750 728 740 837 520 121

Lm Nhn A 797 1286 1481 1495 1133 2394 2908 3278 3416 2863

Pmax 610 776 816 830 814 901 827 880 855

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 36

Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ph Pht A 1603 2959 3042 3155 3384 2821

M 4 Pmax 489 485 540 460 455

Ph Pht A 179,5 3694 4668 4942 4143 4884

M 22 Pmax 730 749 852 917 885

Pht A 92 26 90 146 20

Nho Pmax 285 351 387 450

Quan Nhn A 216 1391 1347 1383 1997

Pmax 404 483 493 566

Pht A 18 31 66 117 20

Thng Pmax 175 362 396 204

Tn Nhn A 150 1291 1413 1357 2134

Pmax 300 485 465 502

Pht A 13 2 0 3

Nh Pmax 418 20 172

B Nhn A 1507 3515 3562 3651 3142

Pmax 832 926 1001 976

Pht A 11 164 70 137 261

Ph Pmax 745 192 209 345

M Nhn A 354 687 920 583 586

Pmax 745 474 396 414

Tn Nhn A 368 826 1184 1575 1447

nh Pmax 396 374 484 442

Ph Pht A 1311,9 3851 3805 3478 3520

M 3 Pmax 749 749 723 780

Pht A 188 1030 1349

Di Pmax 343 422 475

Linh Nhn A 12 107 33

Pmax 136 253 252

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 37

Bng 1.14: Sn lng nhn pht qua HT 500 kV ca cc HT min

nm 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

HT BcPht 1865 1332 974 911 1718 713 1023 733 1445 1941 682

Nhn 303 511 1154 1500 1545 2615 3659 4741 4883 5043 7901

HT TrungPht 0 906 2949 3730 3396 3267 2984 3672 3863 3870 5648

Nhn 1155 1632 1838 2350 2507 2892 3468 2810 2958 2942 2246

HT NamPht 654 889 573 922 659 2952 8376 11734 12164 12171 12841

Nhn 844 797 1286 1481 1495 1133 4623 7936 8956 9331 8071

Bng 1.12 v 1.13 trn cho thy s thiu ngun trm trng ca khu vcpha Bc. Bt u t nm 2004, h thng in min Bc ch yu nhn in t

min Nam. Cc nh my in ln ti min Bc ch yu phc v cho nhu cu

ph ti khu vc, ch cn mt phn nh sn lng c truyn vo min Nam.

Trong nhng nm gn y, h thng in 500kV bt u b qu ti mc d

c nng cp ln thnh ng dy mch kp (tng gp i sn lng truyn

ti). Trong nm 2009, tng sn lng in pht v nhn trn li 500kV camin Bc ln ti 8583 triu kWh, trn h thng li 500kV ca min Nam l20912 triu kWh v trn h thng in min Trung l 7894 triu kWh. Trongnhng nm ti, nu vn tip tc vn hnh theo xu hng in t min Namtruyn ti ra min Bc, th h thng in truyn ti 500kV chc chn s khng

th p ng c nhu cu ph ti ca khu vc min Bc.

1.3 Vn hnh h thng in Vit Nam

1.3.1 Tnh hnh vn hnh ngun in

1.3.1.1 Nguyn tc vn hnh chung

Nh phn 1.2.2 trnh by, t trng ca cc nh my thy in ti VitNam tng i ln, cc ngun thy in c u im l gi thnh sn xut in

thp nhng cng c nhc im l sn lng in pht ph thuc vo thi tit,y l yu t bt nh. Vn hnh cc nh my thy in ph thuc vo tng giai

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 38

on trong nm: Giai on ma kh, ma ma, giai on tch nc. vn

hnh ti u cc ngun in th cn phi vn hnh hp l, khai thc ti u snlng ca cc nh my thy in, cc nh my nhit in vn hnh theo mc

u tin v chi ph sn xut theo loi nhin liu, gi nhin liu, c tnh tiu hao

nhin liu ca cc t my hoc theo gi bn in ca cc nh my.

Hnh 1.12: Din bin mc nc h thy in trong mt nm

1.3.1.2 Giai on ma kh (t thng 1 n thng 6)Cc nh my nhit in than v tua bin kh c khai thc ti a, mua

in Trung Quc vi kh nng ti a, tng cng truyn ti in nng t min

Nam ra min Bc. Khai thc hn ch Ha Bnh v cc h thu in m bo

nng lng cho cc thng cui ma kh. B tr hp l k hoch sa cha huht cc t my trong qu I m bo p ng cng sut v sn lng cc thngqu II.

Ngoi nhim v pht in cc nh my thy in min Bc cn c nhim

v m bo nc phc v sn xut nng nghip cho ng bng Bc B (V dnm 2009: x nc cc h Ho Bnh (800m3/s), Tuyn Quang (600 m3/s),

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 39

Thc B (250 m3/s) t ngy 19/1 n 25/1 v 27/2 n 04/3) gi mc ncSng Hng ti H Ni l 2,5 m.

Trong thng 6, cc NM thy in pha Bc gi nc tng cng sutkh dng trong cc gi cao im (sng, ti), cc NM thu in min Trung vmin Nam khai thc cao. N than v TBK khai thc ti a p ng nhu cuph ti. N du: khai thc chy ph nh trong cc ngy nng nng, ph ti tngcao t bin. Trong thng 5 v thng 6, do thi tit din bin phc tp v chuyni ph ti sang cp thm t ngun Trung Quc.

Nm 2009, giai on ma kh l giai on ph ti tng trng cao nht

trong nm, tc tng trng ph ti l 17,53 % so vi cng k nm 2008. cbit trong thng 6 v thng 7 xy ra cc t nng nng ko di, ph ti tng cao(sn lng ngy ln nht t 274 Triu kWh, cng sut max t 13603 MWtrong khi cng sut min Bc t 5812 MW) nn vic cp in rt cng thng

(c bit khu vc HT min Bc), nhiu D v trm 500/220kV y ti v quti .

1.3.1.3 Giai on ma l (t 16/06 n 15/10)

Trong cc thng ma l (thng 6,7,8,9): Nh my Ha Bnh phi m bogi mc nc trong gii hn theo quy trnh iu tit l. Nh my Thc B vTuyn Quang khai thc hn ch nhm tch nc cho ma kh nm sau. Thuin Nam khai thc ti a. Mua in Trung Quc mc cao (14 triu

kWh/ngy). Cc ngun nhit in than , tua bin kh ca cc nh my trong vngoi EVN huy ng ti a p ng nhu cu ph ti. Nhit in du, TBKdu v diesel ch chy ph nh.

khc phc kh khn v thiu ngun, nhiu khi NLDC phi iu chnh

li lch sa cha cc t my nhit in than, nhit in du v thu in nhm

m bo cng sut kh dng cao nht cng nh gim ti thiu sn lng in

pht bng du.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 40

Tng sn lng thy in trong ma l chim 42,9% ton h thng. Trongcc thng ma l, cc NM thu in vn hnh n nh.

1.3.1.4 Giai on tch nc (t thng 10 n thng 12)Mc tiu ca giai on ny l huy ng cc ngun nhit in vi chi ph

thp nh tua bin kh chy kh, nhit in than, mua in Trung Quc mc cao

tch nc v duy tr mc nc cc h thu in (nu c th c) lnMNDBT vo cui thng 12. Mt khc, cn iu chnh thng xuyn phngthc khai thc cc nh my thu in tn dng ti a lu lng nc v,

trnh x tha lng ph. ng thi phi y nhanh tin sa cha cc ngun kp cho ma kh sang nm.

1.3.2 Tnh hnh vn hnh li in

1.3.2.1 H thng in 500kV

Trong cc nm gn y, do min Bc khng c b sung ngun mi ccng sut ln nn in nhn t HT 500kV rt ln (Nm 2009 l 6,78 t kWh),truyn ti trn ng dy 500 kV Bc - Nam rt cng thng v lun truyn ti

cng sut cao t Nam ra Bc.

Do nhu cu truyn ti cao t HT 500kV vo HT min Bc nn ngay c

trong ch vn hnh bnh thng cc MBA 500kV ti min Bc nh: H Tnh,Thng Tn, Nho Quan thng xuyn trong tnh trng y ti hoc qu ti.

1.3.2.2 Li in tuyn ti 220/110kV

Vic vn hnh li truyn ti cc k cng thng v kh khn, trong ch

vn hnh bnh thng c mt lot phn t y v qu ti, trong tptrung ch yu l cc MBA. Tnh trng ny xy ra c 3 min Bc, Trung, Nam

nhng tp trung ch yu l min Bc v min Nam ni c ph ti cao.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 41

1.4 Vai tr ca nhp khu in t Trung Quc vo Vit NamQua thc t vn hnh cc nm gn y nh nu ti cc mc 1.2, 1.3, ta c

th thy rng nhu cu mua in Trung Quc rt cao trong tt c cc thi im

trong nm. in hnh nh nm 2009, sn lng v cng sut mua t li inTrung Quc trong 6 thng ma kh: cng sut cc i 650 MW, sn lng trungbnh ngy 10 tr.kWh/ngy. Vo 6 thng cui nm, tch nc cc h thu inmin Bc cng sut mua tng n 750 MW, sn lng trung bnh ngy 12

tr.kWh/ngy. Tng sn lng mua in trung Quc nm 2009 t 4,1 t kWh14.

Hn na, phn tch thc t tnh hnh vn hnh li in truyn ti cng

cho thy nu vn tip tc vn hnh h thng in quc gia theo xu hng nhhin nay, h thng truyn ti in 500kV s khng p ng c nhu cu ph

ti, dn ti min Bc thiu in trm trng. Ch trong hai nm 2009 v 2010,

vic ct in trn lan gy ra rt nhiu phn ng trong d lun. Do , vic

tip tc ko di tnh trng thiu in s gy nh hng xu ti mi trng u tti Vit Nam.

Thc t hin nay, u t vo khu pht in c sut u t rt ln. C th

ly v d mt s loi hnh nh my in hin nay: Thy in c sut u t trungbnh 35 t VN/MW, nhit in chy than c sut u t khong 23 tVN/MW (than ni a), nhit in tua bin kh chu trnh hn hp c sut u t

khong 15 t VN/MW. Nh vy, u t c mt nh my tuabin kh chutrnh hn hp c cng sut khong 600MW, nh u t phi b ra mt ngun

vn u t vo khong 9000 t VN. Sut u t ln nh vy to ra mt p lc

rt ln ln EVN cng nh cc nh u t khc mun u t vo khu pht in.

Tuy nhin, hin nay tim nng thy in gn nh c khai thc trit

, cc d n thy in ang trin khai hu ht u gp nhiu kh khn nh vdi dn ti nh c, v tr a l, a hnh a cht xy dng nh my... V vy,


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 42

sut u t ca thy in trong tng lai s tip tc tng ln, dn dn bin thyin khng cn l mt loi hnh ngun kinh t na. Cn i vi nhit in than,tr lng than trong nc cng ang dn cn kit dn ti cc nh my nhit in

chy than phi tm kim ngun than nhp khu, khin cho gi thnh sn xutnhit in than s tng cao hn so vi hin ti. Trong khi , nh nc vn ang

kim sot gi bn l in u ra, dn ti nhng kh khn khi m phn gi bnin gia cc ch nh my in vi Cng ty Mua bn in: thi gian tha

thun gi bn in ko di v thng thng khng tha mn c cc tiu ch

kinh t ti chnh cho ch u t. V vy, kh nng tng cng u t vo ngunin trong tng lai l tng i kh khn.

Hn na, thi gian xy dng mt nh my in thng thng ko dikhong 4-5 nm, cha k thi gian nghin cu kho st, lp d n u t

(khong 2-3 nm). Nh vy c th thy p ng nhu cu ph ti trc mt,u t pht trin vo ngun in khng phi l phng n ti u.

Trong bi cnh , vic t ra bi ton nhp khu in Trung Quc l htsc cp thit. Trong Chng 2 s phn tch su hn s cn thit phi nhp khu

in t Trung Quc vo Vit Nam.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 43

Chng 2. S cn thit nhp khu in t Trung Qucvo Vit Nam

2.1 Khi qut v tnh hnh sn xut in ti cc tnh pha NamTrung Quc

2.1.1 Gii thiu chung

Ti Vit Nam, ngun in Trung Quc c nhp khu v Vit Nam ch

yu t cc tnh pha Nam Trung Quc, st bin gii Vit Nam. ng nhp

khu v ch yu thng qua cc tnh bin gii nh Lo Cai, H Giang.

Khu vc 5 tnh pha Nam Trung Quc hin ang xut khu in sang Vit

Nam l 5 tnh Qung ng, Qung Ty, Vn Nam, Qu Chu v Hi Nam. yl khu vc c a hnh phc tp nhiu ni cao, l ni tp trung s lng ln cc

dn tc thiu s ca Trung Quc. n v chu trch nhim chnh trong vic xydng ngun in, qun l v vn hnh h thng in truyn ti, phn phi tiy l Tp on in lc Phng Nam CSG (China Southern Grid Company).

Hnh 2.1: Bn a l khu vc min Nam Trung Quc15

15 CSG, Update For CSG Power Grid Planning & GMS Cooperation Projects, ADB, Thailand 2009

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 44

Khu vc ny c tng din tch khong 1.000.000km2, GDP nm 2009 t5,34 nghn t Nhn dn t, chim 17,7% GDP ton Trung Quc. Dn s 236triu ngi, chim 17,8% dn s Trung Quc.

Tnh Qung ng c khong 83 triu ngi, c tnh c 53 dn tc trong

c 0,7% dn tc thiu s. Din tch ca c tnh khong 178000km2. TnhQung ng l mt trong nhng tnh duyn hi ca Trung Quc, tip gip viHng Kng, Qung Ty, Ma Cao, Giang Ty, H Nam v Phc Kin. Th phtnh Qung ng l thnh ph Qung Chu. L khu vc c hm lng khong

sn trong rt phong ph, qua khai thc pht hin c hn 116 loi khong sn

khc nhau.

Tnh Qung Ty v tnh Vn Nam l hai tnh tip gip vi Vit Nam. Thph ca tnh Qung Ty l thnh ph Nam Ninh (Nanning), th ph ca tnh

Vn Nam l thnh ph Cn Minh (Kunming). Khu vc Qung Ty cn c gil khu t tr dn tc Zhuang, y l khu vc tp trung sinh sng ca a s dntc Zhuang v dn tc Dao ca c nc Trung Quc. Tnh Qung Ty c ngbin gii tip gip vi Vit Nam di gn 637km. Qung Ty l khu vc tptrung nhiu sng ln c gi tr xy dng cc nh my thy in, kh nng cungcp 81 t kWh/nm t thy in, y cng l khu vc c tr lng khong snphong ph ca Trung Quc. Tnh Vn Nam gm nhiu ni non him tr tothnh, y l ni bt ngun ca con sng Hng ca Vit Nam. c im a

hnh Vn Nam phc tp, cao v pha bc (pha bc cao hn mt nc bin t3000- 4000m, c bit c ni cao n 6740m) thp dn v pha nam (pha namcao hn mt nc bin khong 1500- 2200m). Vn Nam lun c coi l khuvc c tha hng nhiu s u i ca thin nhin, ngun ti nguyn v ngthc vt v khong sn qu u nhiu v ni ting bi cc loi cy thuc ng y.

Vn Nam c 52 dn tc trong s 56 dn tc. Theo con s thng k ca tnh, nm2004 c tnh c xp x 45 triu ngi. Tnh trong nm 2004 c tnh t ctng gi tr xut nhp khu l 3,75 t USD.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 45

Tnh Qu Chu (Guizhou): vi th ph l thnh ph Qu Dng dn sxp x 40 triu dn (tnh n nm 2007), ting a phng l ting Ty NamQuan Thoi. Qu Chu nm v pha Ty Nam Trung Quc. Din tch ca c tnhvo khong 160 ngn km2, c tnh c hn 980 con sng c chiu di ln hn 10km. y l ngun ti ngun di do cung cp cho thy in ca c nc, lngin m Qu Chu cung cp t ngun thy in chim 4,4% tng sn lng inc nc. Qu Chu cn c gi l Bin than Ty Nam do c tr lng thankhong 49 t tn v l ni c cht lng than tt ni ting c nc. Tng cng

sut ngun nhit in ca Qu Dng l 13.240 MW.

Tnh Hi Nam l tnh cc Nam Trung Quc, bao gm nhiu o, trong o ln nht c gi l o Hi Nam (Hi Nam o). Tnh l l thnh ph HiKhu. o Hi Nam l o ln nht di quyn kim sot ca Trung Quc. Tontnh Hi Nam c dn s khong gn 8.200 nghn ngi, din tch 33.920km2,

gn nh nht Trung Quc. Ngun thu nhp chnh ca tnh Hi Nam l cc snphm nng nghip. GDP nm 2006 l 122,96 t Yuan (Nhn dn t), ch bng 0,5%

nn kinh t cng ha nhn dn Trung Quc. Vo nm 2007, thu nhp trn ungi ca o Hi Nam l 14631 Yuan.

2.1.2 Tng quan v li in khu vc Nam Trung Quc

Cho ti ht nm 2008, hin trng li in khu vc Nam Trung Quc nhsau16:

Tng cng sut cc my bin p 500kV: 99.300 MVA

Tng cng sut cc my bin p 220kV: 151.000 MVA

Tng cng sut truyn ti trn ng dy siu cao p mt chiu (HVDC 750kV): 7.800 MW

Chiu di li 500kV: 26.000 km;


eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 46

Chiu di li 220kV: 41.000 km;

Chiu di ng dy HVDC: 3.000km.

Cc ngun in ca khu vc ch yu t ti ba tnh Vn Nam, Qu Chuv Qung Ty, trong khi , trung tm ph ti li pha ng (tnh Qungng). Do , li in truyn ti khu vc ch yu lm nhim v truyn ti innng t ba tnh Vn Nam (khong 4.080 MW/nm), Qu Chu (6.300 MW/nm)v Qung Ty (3.700 MW/nm) sang Qung ng.

Hnh 2.2: Lung cng sut truyn ti ni b trn li in khu vc Nam Trung Quc17

Do trung tm ph ti ti Qung ng rt ln, nn tnh ny cn phi nhnin t hai tnh ln cn pha Bc l L Giang (1.500 MW/nm) v Sn Ty(2.800 MW/nm).


Hainan

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 47

2.1.3 S pht trin ngun in khu vc

Theo s liu thng k nm 2008, tng cng sut t khu vc ny l140.000 MW, trong t trng cao nht l nhit in (85.600 MW chim ti61,14%), tip theo l thy in (47.700 MW chim 34,07%). S di ybiu din cng sut cc loi ngun in khu vc:

Bng 2.1: Cc loi ngun in khu vc pha Nam Trung Quc18

STT Loi ngun in Cng sut t (MW) T trng (%)1 Thy in 47.700 34.68%

2 Nhit in 85.600 62.24%

3 Ht nhn 3.800 2.76%

4 Nng lng ti to (in

gi, nng lng mt tri,

nng lng sinh khi)

430 0.31%

Hnh 2.3: Cc loi hnh ngun in nm 2008

Vi cng sut t cc loi ngun nh trn, tng sn lng in pht trong

nm 2008 l 588 t kWh, tng 6,22% so vi nm 2007.


Cng sut t cc loi ngun in nm 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Thy in Nhit in Ht nhn NLTT

T trng cc loi ngun in nm2008

Thy inNhit inHt nhnNLTT

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 48

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2008-1,2 2008-3 2008-4 2008-5 2008-6 2008-7 2008-8 2008-9 2008-10 2008-11 2008-12 2009-1,2 2009-3 2009-4 2009-5 2009-6 2009-7 2009-8 2009-9 2009-10

National CSG

2.1.4 Nhu cu ph ti khu vc

Cng theo s liu thng k nm 2008, tng nhu cu ph ti khu vc nm2008 l 594 t kWh, tng 5,37% so vi nm 2007. Cng sut ph ti nh l99.200 MW, tng 13,6% so vi 2007.

Biu di y l din bin tc tng trng ph ti khu vc phaNam Trung Quc so vi ton Trung Quc.

Hnh 2.4: Din bin tng trng ph ti t thng 01/2008 ti thng 10/2009

2.2 Lin kt li in gia hai quc gia

2.2.1 Hin trng lin kt li in

Li in Vit Nam v Trung Quc c lin kt vi nhau thng qua haicp in p 220 kV v 110 kV.

Cp in p 220kV: C hai ng dy mch kp l M Quan H Giangv Tn Kiu Lo Cai.

Cp in p 110 kV: C cc ng dy Tn Kiu Lo Cai, mch kpThanh Thy H Giang, ng Hng Mng Ci.

S lin kt li in ti Hnh 2.5:

Ton TQ

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 49

Hnh 2.5: S li in lin kt Vit Nam Trung Quc

Hin nay, cc tnh Sn La, H Giang, in Bin, Lo Cai, Yn Bi,Thi Nguyn, Cao Bng, Bc Cn, Ph Th, Vnh Phc, v mt phn QungNinh nhn in t Trung Quc. Chi tit ti hnh Hnh 2.6:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 50

Hnh 2.6: S li in min BcGhi ch:Mu tm : Li in 220 kV u ni vo li in Trung QucMu Xanh : Li in 110 kV u ni vo li in Trung Quc

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 51

2.2.2 Lin kt li in d kin trong tng lai

Trong giai on sp ti, Vit Nam v Trung Quc d kin s xy dngng dy 500kV t Vn Nam v trm 500kV Hip Ha truyn ti in muabn gia hai quc gia. Hin nay, Cng ty Li in Min Nam Trung Quc Trung Quc (CSG) v Tp on in lc Vit Nam (EVN) k tha thun(MOU) hp tc y mnh lin kt in gia hai Vit Nam v Nam Trung Quc.ng dy 500kV c Ngn hng Th gii h tr vn lp bo co khthi d kin a vo vn hnh sau nm 2015, d kin ng dy ny c dunglng truyn ti ln ti 3000MW, tuy nhin cc thng tin c th v chiu di,

loi ng dy, cc thit k k thut chi tit ang c hai bn nghin cu

thm19.

2.3 Tnh hnh mua bn in hin nay

2.3.1 Chi ph mua in

H thng in Vit Nam c nhiu loi nh my in nh: Thy in, nhit

in than, nhit in du, tuabin kh chy kh, tuabin kh chy du, diesel, thy

in nh... Chi ph u t v sn xut in ca cc loi nh my l khc nhau.

Bng 2.2: Gi bn in ca cc loi nh my

TT Loi nhin liuGi bn in(cent/kWh) Ghi ch

1 Thy in 2.5 52 Nhit in s dng than trong

nc3 4

3 Nhit in s dng than nhpkhu

8 - 9 Tnh ton vi githan 100 USD/tn

4 Nhit in chy du 15 19 Tnh ton vi gi

19 Johnathan Hedgecok, Review International Power Interconnection Project in the GMS, ADB, Thailand 2009

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 52

du FO: 0.718USD/kg

5 Tuabin kh chy kh chu trnhhn hp

3-5

6 Tuabin kh chy du chu trnhn

30-35 Tnh ton vi gidu DO: 0.87USD/lt

7 Diesel 40 - 458 Thy in nh 3-5

Qua bng trn c th thy rng cc nh my nhit in than s dng thannhp khu, cc nh my nhit in chy du, tuabin khi chy du, diesel c gibn in rt cao. p ng nhu cu tiu th in trong nc th hng nm

EVN phi mua mt sn lng rt ln t cc nh my ny, trung bnh t nm2000 n nm 2009: Nhit in du: 2.46 t kWh, Tuabin kh chy du 0.6 t

kWh, nhit in than nhp: 1.1 t kWh (chi tit ti Bng 1.10:, Bng 1.2:, Bng

1.11:).

2.3.2 Tnh hnh nhp khu in t Trung Quc

Bt u t nm 2004, Vit Nam bt u nhp khu in t Trung Quc.

Nm 2004 2005 ch nhp khu qua cc ng dy cp in p 110 kV, t nm2006 bt u nhp khu qua cc ng dy 220 kV. Sn lng in nhp khutng dn qua cc nm. Chi tit ti bng Bng 2.3:.

Bng 2.3: Sn lng in nhp khu qua cc nm

n v: tr. kWh2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

110 kV 38.5 381.9 939.3 855.2 875.3 901.0220 kV 0.0 0.0 27.1 1774.5 2344.2 3201.1Tng 38.5 381.9 966.4 2629.7 3219.5 4102.1

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 53

Hnh 2.7: Biu sn lng in nhp khu qua cc nm

Gi nhp khu in t Trung Quc khong 4.3 5.2 cents/kWh (theo mc3.1), so snh vi cc nh my in c gi thnh cao trong nc nh tuabin khchy du, nhit in du (theo Bng 2.2: m EVN vn phi mua th li ch kinht rt ln.

Bng 2.4: So snh li ch kinh t khi nhp khu in t Trung Quc

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Gi du th gii(USD/thng)

37.41 50.04 58.3 64.2 91.48 53.56

Gi nhit in du(cents/kWh)

5.9 7.9 9.2 10.1 14.4 8.5

Gi nhp khu in

(cents/kWh)4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.2

Gi chnh lch (cents/kWh) 1.6 3.4 4.7 5.6 9.9 3.3

Sn lng nhp khu (tr.

kWh)38.5 381.9 966.4 2629.7 3219.5 4102.1

Tin chnh lch (tr. USD) 1.66 17.19 43.49 118.34 144.88 213.31

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 54

(Ngun gi du th gii: http://www.ioga.com/Special/crudeoil_Hist.htm)

Qua bng trn c th thy rng li ch nhp khu in t Trung Quc lrt ln.

2.4 Vn hnh h thng in Vit Nam giai on 2011-2015(Bo co ca PRP)

2.4.1 D liu u vo - Gi thit tnh ton

2.4.1.1 Tin cc cng trnh mi

Cn c theo thng bo s 268/TB-VPCP ngy 28/9/2010 v kin ktlun ca Ph Th tng Hong Trung Hi ti cuc hp Ban ch o nh ncQuy hoch in VI (phin hp th chn).

Cn c d kin tin ngun in giai on 2011-2015 trong Quy hochin VII (bo co B Cng thng thng 10/2010)

2.4.1.2 D bo ph ti

D kin ba phng n tng trng ph ti: Phng n trung bnh, phng

n cao, phng n thp.

Kt qu d bo nh sau:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 55

1 Nhu cu in nng cc min v h thng (GWh)

Kt qu d bo nhu cu in nng cc min v ton h thng ng vi ba phng n ph ti c cho trong Bng 2.5:.

Bng 2.5: Nhu cu in nng cc min v h thng

NmPhng n Cao Phng n Trung Bnh Phng n Thp

HT Bc Trung Nam HT Bc Trung Nam HT Bc Trung Nam

2011 117,218 46,060 11,760 59,397 114,236 44,891 11,463 57,882 112,248 44,111 11,265 56,872

2012 138,306 54,422 14,034 69,850 131,361 51,693 13,335 66,332 126,830 49,913 12,880 64,037

2013 162,530 64,014 16,671 81,844 150,427 59,254 15,441 75,731 142,702 56,216 14,656 71,831

2014 190,224 74,953 19,707 95,564 171,547 67,602 17,790 86,155 159,884 63,011 16,592 80,281

2015 221,758 87,361 23,178 111,219 194,838 76,765 20,389 97,684 178,394 70,292 18,684 89,418

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 56

Minh ha nhu cu tiu th in nng cc min v ton h thng in ng vi baphng n tng trng ph ti trong, Hnh 1.

Hnh 2.8: Nhu cu tiu th in nng h thng in Quc giaTheo tng trng nhu cu tiu th nng lng h thng in Quc gia (%)

c cho trong.

Bng 2.6: Tng trng nhu cu tiu th in nng

Nm PA Cao PA Trung Bnh PA Thp2011 17.94 14.94 12.942012 17.99 14.99 12.992013 17.51 14.51 12.512014 17.04 14.04 12.04

2015 16.58 13.58 11.58

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 57

Hnh 2.9: Nhu cu tiu th in nng Min BcTheo tng trng nhu cu tiu th nng lng in min Bc (%) c cho

trong Bng 2.7:.

Bng 2.7: Tng trng nhu cu tiu th in nng min Bc

Nm PA Cao PA Trung Bnh PA Thp2011 19.25 16.22 14.202012 18.15 15.15 13.152013 17.63 14.63 12.632014 17.09 14.09 12.092015 16.55 13.55 11.55

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 58

Hnh 2.10: Nhu cu tiu th in nng Min Trung

Theo tng trng nhu cu tiu th nng lng in min Trung (%) c cho

trongError! Reference source not found..

Bng 2.8: Tng trng nhu cu tiu th in nng min Trung

Nm PA Cao PA Trung Bnh PA Thp

2011 21.51 18.44 16.39

2012 19.34 16.34 14.34

2013 18.79 15.79 13.79

2014 18.21 15.21 13.21

2015 17.61 14.61 12.61

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 59

Hnh 2.11: Hnh 1 - Nhu cu tiu th in nng Min Nam

Theo tng trng nhu cu tiu th nng lng in min Nam (%) c cho

trong Bng 1.

Bng 2.9: Bng 1 Tng trng nhu cu tiu th in nng min Nam

Nm PA Cao PA Trung Bnh PA Thp

2011 18.62 15.60 13.58

2012 17.60 14.60 12.60

2013 17.17 14.17 12.17

2014 16.76 13.76 11.76

2015 16.38 13.38 11.38

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 60

Cng sut cc i nm Pmax cc min v h thng (MW)

Kt qu d bo Pmax cc min v ton h thng ng vi cc phng n khc nhau c cho chi tit trong Bng 2.

Bng 2.10: Bng 2 - Cng sut cc i nm Pmax cc min v h thng (MW)

NmPhng n Cao Phng n Trung Bnh Phng n Thp

HT Bc Trung Nam HT Bc Trung Nam HT Bc Trung Nam

2011 18,846 8,534 1,921 8,750 18,297 8,286 1,865 8,495 17,748 8,037 1,809 8,241

2012 21,609 9,831 2,274 10,175 20,980 9,544 2,207 9,878 20,350 9,258 2,141 9,582

2013 24,869 11,425 2,680 11,583 24,145 11,092 2,602 11,246 23,420 10,759 2,524 10,908

2014 28,174 12,685 3,140 13,180 27,353 12,316 3,048 12,796 26,532 11,946 2,957 12,412

2015 32,513 14,955 3,654 15,791 31,566 14,520 3,547 15,331 30,619 14,084 3,441 14,871

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 61

Cng sut cc i nm cc min v ton h thng ng vi ba phng n ph tic minh ha trong Hnh 2, Hnh 3, Hnh 4.

Hnh 2.12: Hnh 2 - Biu cng sut cc i nm cc min v ton h thng

Phng n cao

Theo tng trng cng sut cc i Phng n cao nh sau:

H thng in quc gia: 16.32 %

Min Bc: 17.98%

Min Trung: 17.26 %

Min Nam: 15.87%

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 62


Phng n trung bnh

Theo tng trng cng sut cc i Phng n trung bnh nh sau:

H thng in quc gia: 15.6 %

Min Bc: 17.29%

Min Trung: 16.58 %

Min Nam: 15.19%eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 63


Phng n thp

Theo tng trng cng sut cc i Phng n thp nh sau:

H thng in: 14.89 %

Min Bc: 16.59%

Min Trung: 15.90 %

Min Nam: 14.52%

2.4.1.3 Lch sa cha ca cc nh my

D liu u vo

- D liu qu kh v lch sa cha ca cc t my

- Chu k sa cha ca cc nh my: i tu, trung tu, tiu tu

Qu trnh x l

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 64

- Tnh ton d kin lch sa cha ca cc t my cc nm tip theo

2.4.1.4 Tnh ton iu tit thy in

Tng sn lng ca cc nh my thy in trong mt nm ph

thuc vo lu lng nc v ca cc h. Lu lng nc v h ph thuc vothi tit v y l yu t bt nh, gim thiu sai s trong tnh ton, chn

phng n lu lng nc v trung bnh trong 10 nm gn y. Vic phn chiav iu tit sn lng thy in trong tng thi k sao cho ti u ph thuc volu lng nc v tng thi k, nhu cu ph ti ca tng min, nhu cu ph ti

ca c h thng v c cu cc ngun nhit in.

2.4.1.5 Tnh hnh cung cp nhin liu ca cc nh my

Tnh hnh cung cp nhin liu than

D kin than sn xut trong nc cung cp khng cho cc nhmy nhit in, chi tit nhu cu than trong nc v nhp khu c cho trongBng 2.11:

Bng 2.11: Nhu cu Than (Triu tn)

Nm 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Min Bc - trong nc 10.8 12.7 15.8 18.8 20.8

Min Bc - nhp khu 0 0 0 0 0

Min Trung - trong nc 0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08

Min Trung - nhp khu 0 0 0 0 0

Min Nam - trong nc 0 0 0 3.4 9

Min Nam - nhp khu 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.39

Ton quc 11.2 13.57 16.77 23.07 32.27

Tng nhp khu 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.39

Trong nc 10.8 12.77 15.87 22.27 29.88

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 65

Tnh hnh cung cp nhin liu kh

i vi cm tuabin kh min ty

Kh cp cho Mn ca EVN: ly theo kh l B, d kin ti 2014 mi vovn hnh. Do cm Mn s k c kh cp v phi chy du.

Kh cp cho C Mau 1 v 2: d kin C Mau 1 s nhn kh PM3 v CiNc nh hin nay. Cn C Mau 2 s nhn phn kh d t 2 m ny sau khi C

Mau 1dng xong, phn cn li dng kh l B. Nh vy n nm 2014 th CMau 2 mi kh, cn t nm 2011 do c nh my m C Mau bt u i vohot ng, phi chia s kh vi m nn C Mau 2 chc s phi gim chy kh,tng chy du.

i vi cm Tuabin kh Ph M - B Ra Nhn Trch

D kin lng kh (gm c Nam Cn Sn v Bch H) cung cp ch

cho cc nh my tuabin kh, khng cung cp cho Hip Phc, do Hip

Phc vn phi chy du.

2.4.1.6 Gi nhin liu v gi bn in ca cc nh my

Hin nay c nhiu dng hp ng mua bn in vi nhiu cch tnh

ton gi bn in khc nhau. C nhng hp ng gi bn in c nh trong

khong thi gian di, khng ph thuc vo gi nhin liu nh: Na Dng, CaoNgn... c thi hn hp ng l 25 nm. C nhng nh my hp ng k li sau2 nm, 4 nm nh: Ph Li, Formosa...

Hin nay cng c nhng nh my gi bn in ph thuc vo ginhin liu u vo nh: C Mau 1, 2 (gi kh ph thuc gi du th gii), Nhn

Trch 1, 2 (gi bn in ph thuc gi kh), Hip Phc, Th c, Cn Th (gi

bn in ph thuc gi du FO, DO), Formosa (gi bn in ph thuc gi than

nhp khu)....

Gi kh Nam Cn Sn:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 66

Kh cp cho Nhn Trch 1 v 2: l phn kh trn bao tiu ca mNam Cn Sn. L trnh tng gi kh c Th tng ph duytnh sau:

o T 01/3/2011: tng ln 4,8USD/trBTU;

o T 01/3/2012: tng ln 4,99USD/trBTU;o T 01/3/2013: tng ln 5,19USD/trBTU;o T 01/3/2014: tng ln 5,39USD/trBTU;o T 01/3/2015: tng ln 5,61USD/trBTU;o T 01/3/2016 tr i: gi tng 2%/nm.

Gi ny l gi bao gm c cc ph vn chuyn, hin nayl 1,17USD/trBTU.

Cn kh cp cho cm Ph M, B Ra l khng i.

Kh cp cho Mn ca EVN: ly theo kh l B, d kin ti 2014

mi

vo. Gi d kin ca kh l B l khong 6,6USD/trBTU.

Gi in ph thuc vo gi nhin liu nh bng sau:

STTLoi nhin

liuGi nhin

liun v

Gi in

(cent/kWh) Ghi ch

1Du th

90 USD/thng 4.6 5

gi TBK C Mau100 USD/thng 5 5.5

110 USD/thng 5.5 6

2 Du DO

0.870USD/lit 33 36

0.966USD/lit 37 40

USD/lit 42 46

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 67

STTLoi nhin

liu

Gi nhinliu

n vGi in

(cent/kWh) Ghi ch

1.063

3 Du FO

0.718USD/kg 17 - 19.5

0.798USD/kg 20 23

0.877USD/kg 23 25

4 Than cm 5 27USD/tn 3.3 3.5

40 USD/tn 5 5.5

5 Than nhp100 USD/tn 8 9

120 USD/tn 10 - 12

2.4.1.7 Gii hn truyn ti gia cc khu vc

ng dy 500 kV ng vai tr l ng dy lin kt h thng inba min Bc, Trung Nam.

Gii hn truyn ti trn ng dy 500 kV l 1600 MW.

2.4.2 Qu trnh x l Phng php tnh tonCc kch bn tnh ton bao gm:

Tnh ton vi ba phng n tng trng ph ti: Cao, thp, trung bnh

BC TRUNG NAM500 KV 500 KVeB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 68

Ba phng n gi du th: 90USD/thng, 100USD/thng, 110USD/thng

Hai phng n gi than:

Than ni a: Than cm 5: 27 USD/tn, 40 USD/tn

Than cm 4b: 33 USD/tn, 50 USD/tn

Than nhp: 100 USD/tn; 120 USD/tn

Tng hp thnh cc phng n nhin liu

Kch bnGi du th

(USD/thng)

Than ni a (USD/tn) Than nhp

(USD/tn)Than cm 5 Than cm 4b

Nhin liu 1 90 27 33 100

Nhin liu 2 100 40 50 120

Nhin liu 3 110 40 50 120

2.4.3 D liu u ra Kt qu tnh ton gi bin

2.4.3.1 Phng n ph ti tng trng cao

Nm 2011n v: Cent/kWh

Phngn T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12GiNL 1 19.19 19.47 16.61 15.93 13.76 15.45 16.12 14.97 18.91 15.11 15.43 17.81GiNL2 21.33 21.65 18.46 17.80 15.47 17.22 18.01 16.69 20.94 16.93 17.21 19.83GiNL 3 23.31 23.67 20.09 19.33 16.51 18.64 19.74 18.04 23.02 18.19 18.65 21.60

th:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 69



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 70



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 71



th:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 72



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 73

Nhn Xt:

Kt qu tnh ton cho thy: Khi gi nhin liu tng th gi bin pht incng tng, gi bin thay i theo tng thi k trong nm. Trong kch bn tnh

ton, gi bin thp nht l 11.69 cents/kWh (thng 6 nm 2015), gi bin caonht l 25 cents/kWh (thng 3 nm 2015)

2.4.3.2 Phng n ph ti tng trng trung bnh



eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 74

th:



th:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 75



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 76



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 77



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 78

Nhn Xt:

Trong kch bn tnh ton, gi bin thp nht l 10.88 cents/kWh (thng 6nm 2015), gi bin cao nht l 23.33 cents/kWh (thng 10 nm 2013)

2.4.3.3 Phng n ph ti tng trng thp



th:

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 79



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 80



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 81



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 82



th:eB

ook f

or Yo

u

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 83

Nhn Xt:

Trong kch bn tnh ton, gi bin thp nht l 10.68 cents/kWh (thng 5nm 2015), gi bin cao nht l 23.04 cents/kWh (thng 1 nm 2011)

2.5 Kt lun

Trong giai on 2004 2009 EVN quyt nh nhp khu in t TrungQuc l rt ng n, cc li ch em li l:

Tng cng kh nng cung cp in cho min Bc, gim truyn ti in trn

ng dy 500 kV, tng cng n nh cung cp in

Gi nhp khu in t Trung Quc r hn nhiu so vi mt s nh my nhitin chy du trong nc. Tng s tin EVN tit kim c do khng phi vn

hnh cc nh my nhit in du giai on 2004 2009 khong 538.87 triuUSD.

Trong giai on 2011 2015: Theo cc kch bn tnh ton th gi binmua in t 10.68 - 25 cents/kWh. Gi in ny cao hn nhiu so vi gi muain t Trung Quc. T nm 2013, min Bc in, ng dy 500 kV li

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 84

truyn ti in t min Bc vo min Nam do vic mua in t Trung Quckhng tng cng vic cung cp in cho min Bc nhng vn em li li ch

v mt kinh t rt ln.

Theo tnh ton trong Quy hoch pht trin in lc giai on 2011 2020c xt n nm 2030 (Quy hoch in 7) th p lc vn u t cho ngnh in lrt ln (Chi tit ti Bng 2.12:). Khi thc hin nhp khu in t Trung Quc,nc ta khng phi u t thm nh my in c cng sut v sn lng tngng, gp phn gim p lc v ngun vn xy dng nh my in.

T cc tnh ton v phn tch trn cho thy vic nhp khu in t TrungQuc l rt cn thit v chng ta cn c cc gii php thc y v vn ny.

Bng 2.12: Tng hp vn u t pht trin in lc

n v: T USD

Giai on 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2011-2030

- Tng ngun in

- BQ hng nm

22,076

4,415

28,830

5,766

27,005

5,401

32,441

6,482

110,322

5,516

- Tng li in

- BQ hng nm

7,245

1,449

10,523

2,105

12,345

2,469

15,868

3,174

45,981

2,299

- Tng ngnh in

- BQ hng nm

29,321

5,864

39,353

7,871

39,349

7,870

48,280

9,656

156,303

7,815

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 85

Chng 3. Gii php nhp khu in t Trung Qucvo Vit Nam nhm p ng yu cu pht trin kinh t

- x hi trong nc

3.1 Hp ng mua bn in

3.1.1 Hp ng mua bn in

Hp ng mua bn in gm cc iu khon nh sau:

iu 1: Ngha v ca Cc bn ca Hp ng

iu 2: Cht lng in, Cc iu kin k thut u ni Li in vVn hnh iu

iu 3: Mua v Bn Cng sut in v Nng lng in

iu 4: Gi in

iu 5: o Nng lng in

iu 6: Tnh ton Lng in

iu 7: Lp ho n tin in v thanh ton

iu 8: B phn khng v h s cng sut

iu 9 Trch nhim ca mi bn trong vic xy dng, bo dng v qun lthit b u ni

iu 10: Bt kh khng

iu 11: Trch nhim php l khi vi phm Hp ng v Bi thng

iu 12: Hiu lc ca Hp ng v thi hn hiu lc

iu 13: B sung, thay i v chm dt Hp ng

iu 14: Gii quyt tranh chp

iu 15: Khc

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 86

Ph lc

Ph lc 1: nh ngha

Ph lc 2: Tha thun K thut u ni

Ph lc 3: Tho thun iu

Ph lc 4: Cc bin bn cuc hp lin quan c hai bn kPh lc 5: Mu bn ghi in nng

Ph lc 6: Mu bn ghi lng in v ho n tin in

Tm tt ni dung chnh ca cc hp ng nh sau:

1. Sn lng v cng sut mua:

Vit Nam s mua in t li 110 kV v 220kV Trung Quc vi snlng hng nm t xxx n xxx t kWh.

Cng sut mua d kin t yyy n yyy MW.

2. Trch nhim u t cng trnh truyn ti in:

EVN c trch nhim u t li in trong phn lnh th Vit Nam, CSGc trch nhim u t li in trong phn lnh th Trung Quc.

3. Gi mua in:

Gi in l 4,5 UScents/kWh.

Gi in s c xem xt iu chnh 2 nm 1 ln nu t gi hi oi gia ng

CNY v ng USD thay i vt qu 3.5%.

4. Thi hn Hp ng:

EVN s mua in t li 110 kV, 220 kV Trung Quc trong 10 nm.

5. Kt cu ca hp ng:

Hp ng gm 15 iu v 6 ph lc.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 87

3.1.2 Hp ng mua bn in cp in p 110 kV

Hp ng cp in p 110 kV c k kt gia Cng ty Li in Vn

Nam (YNPG) (Ngi Bn) trc thuc Cng ty TNHH Tp on Li in MinNam Trung Quc (CSG) v Cng ty in lc 1 (PC1) (Ngi Mua) trc thucTp on in lc Vit Nam (EVN).

Hp ng quy nh gi in s c xem xt iu chnh 2 nm 1 ln nu

t gi hi oi gia ng CNY v ng USD thay i vt qu 3.5%.

o Giai on 2004 - 2006 gi l 4.3 USD cents/kWh



T nm 2004 n nay tnh trng cung cp in ca Vit Nam ngy cngcng thng nn hng nm EVN phi ch o PC1 m phn vi YNPG tng mua

sn lng in.

3.1.3 Hp ng mua bn in cp in p 220 kV

Hp ng c k kt gia Cng ty TNHH Tp on Li in Min

Nam Trung Quc (CSG) (Bn Bn) v Tp on in lc Vit Nam (EVN)(Bn Mua).

Hp ng quy nh gi in s c xem xt iu chnh 2 nm 1 ln nu

t gi hi oi gia ng CNY v ng USD thay i vt qu 3.5%.


o Giai on 2009 2010 gi l 5.2 USD cents/kWh

T nm 2007 n nay hng nm EVN u m phn vi YNPG tng mua

sn lng in.

eBoo

k for

You

LUN VN THC S

Tc gi: Qunh Giao 88

3.2 nh gi v tnh hnh nhp khu in t Trung Quc voVit Nam

3.2.1 Th tc thc hin

in nng l mt loi hnh sn phm v hnh v c tnh c th cao. Do

, cc yu cu v th tc php l khi thc hin xut nhp khu in cng c

nhng im chung v im ring vi hot ng xut nhp khu hng ha thngthng. i vi mt n v, c th xut hoc nhp khu in, n v bt

buc phi c giy php hot ng in lc trong lnh vc xut nhp khu in.Theo quy nh ti Quyt nh 32/2006/Q-BCN ngy 06/9/2006 quy nh v

iu kin, trnh t v th tc cp, sa i, b sung, thu hi v qun l s dnggiy php hot ng in lc, yu cu i vi mt n v khi ngh cp php

hot ng in lc lnh vc xut nhp khu in nh sau:

L t chc, c nhn c ng k kinh doanh, c thnh lp v hot ng theoquy nh ca php lut;

1. C h s hp l ngh cp, sa i, b sung giy php hotng in lc;

2. C nng lc ti chnh thc hin cc lnh vc hot ng in

lc ngh cp g

luẬn vĂn thẠc sỸ mÔ hÌnh vÀ tÍnh toÁn phỤc vỤ hoẠt ĐỘng thỊ trƯỜng...

Documents