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LTER looking backwards and forwards

(big issues facing LTER; big ideas for the future)

Emily StanleyUniversity of Wisconsin- North Temperate Lakes

ehstanley@wisc.edu

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Disclaimer• ICU, not IM

• Standing/leaning on the shoulders of giants

– Culture and tradition of NTL set by John Magnuson, Steve Carpenter

– Site and network IM excellence of Barbara Benson and Corinna Gries

– Great LTER colleagues

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The future is hard to predict…

• Learn from the past

– Identifying big issues as a critical first step

• Use scenarios to think about possible futures

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Magnuson, Kratz, Benson (2006): 4 conflicts (challenges) of LT research

1. Maintain the old while embracing the new

– Analyses/methods/technologies; processes; scientists/ideas

2. Project manageability vs. project growth

– Same for data

3. Retaining continuity, integrity of LT research

– Practical and intellectual challenge

4. Site-specific research vs. need to synthesize

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2 more challenges• Steve Carpenter:

– Paul Hanson:

• Network information systems must service the science, education, and outreach goals of the network.

• Bob Kates: Disciplines disappear and universities will

organize around questions vs. LTER

– Transition may be turbulent…

“IM is the easy part. Intellectual leadership is the hard part”

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Maintaining intellectual investment by top scientists: The Big Tent

• No single intellectual viewpoint; a ‘flat table’

• Core data and understanding as a critical attractant

– The framework that holds up the building

• Modest resources

• Low cost/higher benefits (collaborations, leveraging)

• Those involved want to be involved

• Bottom up organization robust to vagaries of individuals

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The Big Tent for the LTER network• ASM as proof

• But…

– Sustaining, enhancing network-scale science?

• Are LTER working groups as successful as NCEAS working groups?

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The Big Tent for the LTER network• Invest more in LNO to contribute to

intellectual leadership?

– We’ve asked LNO to play more of a functionary, management role…

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The Big Tent for the LTER network• No single intellectual viewpoint; a ‘flat table’

• Disciplines disappear and universities will organize

around questions vs. LTER

Jim Collins 2006- “The Future Ecologist”

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The Big Tent for the LTER network• No single intellectual viewpoint; a ‘flat table’

• Disciplines disappear and universities will organize

around questions vs. LTER

• Fred Swanson: ‘LTER as an interdisciplinary ship of exploration journeying through time’

• Be a leader in this turbulent transition?

– By doing the good science, but perhaps we also need to think about pushing other institutions?

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• Looking backwards to bring challenges into focus

• Looking forward to be ready to handle them– scenarios for the future?

– ASM 2006: The next 25 years Plenary

– ASM 2012: LTER 2100 Workshop

– Again; more in depth? Follow-up?

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Scenarios for the future

• The future now: making room to ask more100-year questions

http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu

http://lter.limnology.wisc.edu

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END

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Rationale for LTER program1. Need to investigate ecological phenomena at scales of decades to

centuries

2. Eco experiments conducted with little recognition of high inter-annual variability

3. LT trends not being monitored- can’t distinguish trends from cycles

4. Absence of a coordinated network of ecological research sites inhibits comparative research and its benefits

5. Natural ecosystems where research is done are being lost to other uses

6. Multi-level, integrated data were not available at intensive research sites

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To be sustainable Long-term Research requires

• Funding and funding opportunities increased over time

• High productivity of important scientific contributions

• Key players and leaders attracted from successive generations of scientists

• Breadth of the subject areas and measurements maintained

• Personalities appropriate for management of interdisciplinary scientists

Magnuson- To be sustainable, Long-term Research requires:

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Increase CI capacity for data acquisition, management, and curation

Sevilleta LTER

The ecologist of the future

J. Collins ASM 2006

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Increase CI capacity for data acquisition, management, and curation Sevilleta LTER

The ecologist of the future