lse inaugural lecture - eurocrisis@lse lecture · 2013. 11. 27. · source: european election...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE
Blaming Europe? Citizens, Governments and the Media
Sara B Hobolt
Sutherland Chair in European Institutions
London School of Economics and Political Science
![Page 3: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Blaming Europe?
AFP Photo/Jose Jordan
![Page 4: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Questions
1) How do citizens assign blame to the European
Union?
2) Do the media and governments shift blame to the
EU?
3) Can citizens hold the EU to account for policy
outcomes?
![Page 5: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Attribution and Accountability
“Democracy is the process by which people choose the
man who'll get the blame.” - Bertrand Russell
Policy performance Vote choice
Attribution of responsibility
![Page 6: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
How do citizens assign blame?
Institutional reality versus individual biases?
Attribution of blame should reflect the division of
responsibility across levels of government
Especially when information is available
But citizens also rely on in-group biases (EU attitudes)
Selective attribution of blame: Europhiles absolve the EU of
blame, whereas Eurosceptics blame the EU for poor
performance
![Page 7: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
How do citizens assign blame?
![Page 8: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Who is responsible?
Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
70
55
45
37
20
26
35 33
8
18 18
26
2 2 3 4
Health care Economy Immigration Interest rates
National Joint EU Nobody
![Page 9: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Responsibility for interest rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Experts Public
Att
rib
uti
on
of
resp
on
sib
ilit
y t
o t
he E
U
Pegged to Eurozone
Unpegged
Eurozone
Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) & Survey of EU experts
![Page 10: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Impact of media coverage on the EU
When do citizens get it right?
-4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1
Newspaper EU visibility
TV EU visibility
Closeness to expert assignment on the
economy
High
exposure
Low
exposure
Source: European Election Studies 2009 & European Media Study 2009
![Page 11: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Responsibility for the financial crisis (UK)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% t
hin
k r
esp
on
sib
le fo
r fi
nan
cia
l cri
sis
US banks
EU
British government
Source: British Election Study, 2008-2012
![Page 12: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Responsibility for the economy (UK)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% t
hin
k a
ffects
th
e e
co
no
my t
he m
ost
Just British
government
Neither
EU or both
Source: British Election Study, 2004-2012
![Page 13: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Blaming the EU for economic problems
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Britain France Spain Germany Poland
% b
lam
ing E
U f
or
eco
no
mic
pro
ble
ms
2012
2010
2011
Source: PEW survey data 2010, 2011 & 2012
![Page 14: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Selective attribution of blame in the crisis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Britain France Spain Germany Poland
EU
bla
med
fo
r eco
no
mic
pro
ble
ms EU supporter
EU opponent
Source: PEW survey data 2011
![Page 15: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Selective attribution of blame for the crisis (UK)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% t
hin
k E
U is
resp
on
sib
le fo
r fi
nan
cia
l cri
sis
EU supporter
EU opponent
Source: British Election Study
![Page 16: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Summary:
How do citizens assign blame?
Citizens’ attribution of responsibility to the EU reflects
the institutional and political context
More blame of the EU as the euro crisis has unfolded
Newspaper consumption makes citizens betters able to assign
responsibility, and high levels of media coverage reduces biases
Selective attribution: blame also driven by attitudes
towards the EU
![Page 17: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The Blame Game?
To what extent do national governments and the
national media assign blame to the EU?
![Page 18: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Media blame attribution for the economy
0 10 20 30 40
European
Union
Other national
actors
National
government
% stories assigning responsibility
Newspapers
Television
Source: European Media Study 2009 (N=36,000 stories)
Assignment of responsibility for the economy, 2009
![Page 19: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The Crisis: who is credited by governments?
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
UK Germany Ireland
National government
EU Other
Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012
![Page 20: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The Crisis: who is blamed by governments?
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
UK Germany Ireland
Previous government
EU
Other
Source: Content analysis of all PM speeches on the economy, 2008- 2012
![Page 21: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Summary:
Who do the media and governments blame?
The media covers the EU, but policy-specific coverage is
less common, and attribution of responsibility to the EU
is rare
Heads of Governments very rarely blame the EU, even
during the crisis. Instead we find:
Diffusion of responsibility – joint European responsibility
(“we are all in this together”)
Credit taking – national governments claiming credit for
policy outcomes
![Page 22: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Can citizens hold the EU to account for
policy outcomes?
Accountability:
Punishing or rewarding governments for policy outcomes that
is their responsibility
Greater performance voting when there is “clarity of
responsibility” ~ identifiable government
Performance evaluation Vote choice
Attribution of responsibility
Clarity of responsibility
![Page 23: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Accountability in a national context
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Lessresponsible
Moreresponsible
Lessresponsible
Moreresponsible
Lessresponsible
MoreresponsibleC
han
ge in
pro
pen
sity
to
vo
te f
or
govern
men
t p
arti
es
Medium clarity
systems
Low clarity
systems
High clarity
systems
Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
The economy moves from bad to good
![Page 24: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Accountability in European elections
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Economy moves from bad to good
%
ch
an
ge in
EP
P v
ote
sh
are
EU more
responsible EU less
responsible
Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
![Page 25: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Effect on trust in the EU
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Economy moves from bad to good
%
ch
an
ge in
tru
st in
EU
in
stit
uti
on
s
EU more
responsible
EU less
responsible
Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000)
![Page 26: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Summary:
Can citizens hold the EU to account?
There is no evidence that citizens punish or rewards
MEPs for performance that the EU is deemed to be
responsible for:
The EU lacks a clearly identifiable “government party” in the EP
that voters can punish and reward
No clear link between the European Parliament vote and EU
executive
However, when citizens blame the EU for poor
performance that leads to lower levels of trust in EU
institutions
![Page 27: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Implications
Lack of mechanisms for accountability in the EU
Reduced accountability for national governments
Consequences for the legitimacy of the EU
Aggravated by the crisis
![Page 28: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Possible solutions to accountability deficit
Greater institutional clarity
Clearer divisions of competences
Greater government clarity
Government-Opposition politics in the European Parliament
Stronger link between parliamentary majority and the Commission or a directly elected Commission President
Greater transparency to make it more difficult for national politicians to diffuse blame/claim credit
“A fundamental deepening of the EMU must go hand in hand with greater democratic legitimacy. Wherever new competences are created at European level or closer coordination of national policies is established, full democratic control has to be ensured.”
Future of Europe Group (EU Foreign Ministers), 17 Sep 2012
![Page 29: LSE INAUGURAL LECTURE - EUROCRISIS@LSE LECTURE · 2013. 11. 27. · Source: European Election Studies 2009 (N=27,000) 70 55 45 37 20 26 35 33 8 18 18 26 ... Stronger link between](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081621/612456222e3f2e0d542bc901/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)