lpg seaborne transportation

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Global LPG November 2017 1

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Page 1: LPG Seaborne Transportation

Global LPG

November 2017 1

Page 2: LPG Seaborne Transportation

2

More = Less

110 %

60%6 million

40 million

2009 2019

Page 3: LPG Seaborne Transportation

3

LPG Competitiveness

Increased Shale production USA

Increased LNG production brings more LPG

LPG Displacement by Ethane and LNG

Therefore LPG must incentivise increased consumption and open up new uses, eg

Power generation and Marine Fuel

“1000+” applications

Page 4: LPG Seaborne Transportation

4

Dominant Components

Total LPG Production 320 million tonnes Highest ever level

5-year market growth 14% Twice as fast as crude oilgrowth

Top Consumer China 48 million tons

Top Importer China 19 million tons

Top consuming sector Domestic 44%

Top Producer USA 92 million tons

Top Exporter USA 40 million tons +

Seaborne Trade 112 million tonnes Up 50% in last five years

Page 5: LPG Seaborne Transportation

Global Seaborne LPG Trade

Regional flows

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Middle East 51 48 44 44 39

USA 19 26 29 32 34

5

Volume inmillion tons

Evolution yoy (in %)

2019 107 +7%

2018 100 +8%

2017 93 + 3%

2016 90 + 6%

2015 85 + 13%

2014 75 --

2019 107 +43%

2014 75 --

Total Seaborne

Page 6: LPG Seaborne Transportation

6

Propane V Butane

USD 200

USD 250

USD 300

USD 350

USD 400

USD 450

USD 500

USD 550

USD 600

USD 650

USD 700

Propane & Butane CP

Propane FOB SAUDI CP Butane FOB SAUDI CP

Page 7: LPG Seaborne Transportation

European Indexes (Platts, CIF, SH) Saudi CP AFEI Mount Belvieu

FOB USAMont Belvieuplus Terminal

Fee

Arbitrage – a Changing Dynamic

Page 8: LPG Seaborne Transportation

8

LPG Shipping

LPG fleet 1’458 vessels

VLGC’s

5-year Fleet Growth 85 %

Current fleet 278

Vessels on order 36

Pressurized

5-year Fleet Growth 12%

Current fleet (<11k cbm) 704

Vessels on order 27

Page 9: LPG Seaborne Transportation

VLGC 75’000 cbm +

LGC 60’000 cbm

Mid Size 35-38’000 cbm

Handy 22-28’000 cbm

Small Handy 12’000 cbm

Small below 11’000 cbm

9

Gas Carrier Sectors

Firm

Firm

Firm

Stable/Soft

Soft

Stable

Page 10: LPG Seaborne Transportation

SOx Global Sulphur Cap 0.5% (MARPOL)

LPG as Propulsion Fuel

Autonomous Development

10

Hot Topics

Page 11: LPG Seaborne Transportation

11

Emissions – IMO 2020

Global Sulphur Cap 0.5%

What is it ?

An IMO MARPOL Convention which states that effective 1st January 2020 the sulphur content of any fuel oil used on board vessels shall not exceed 0.5%

Page 12: LPG Seaborne Transportation

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LPG as Propulsion Fuel

Clean

Available

Affordable

Page 13: LPG Seaborne Transportation

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Autonomous Ships

Improved Efficiency

Increased Safety

Crew Reduction

Cyber Security

Degrees of Autonomy

Page 14: LPG Seaborne Transportation

14

THANK YOU !

Page 15: LPG Seaborne Transportation

15

Disclaimer

The information in this presentation was compiled from sourcesbelieved to be reliable for informational purposes only. Theinformation contained is intended solely for your personalreference. Such information is subject to change without notice,its accuracy is not guaranteed. Geogas makes no representationregarding, and assumes no responsibility or liability for, theaccuracy or completeness of, or any errors or omissions in, anyinformation contained herein..