low carbon scenarios for india - 国立環境研究所 institute of management, ahmedabad, india low...

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Low Carbon Scenarios for India: Modeling and New Scenarios Framework

P. R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management

Ahmedabad, India

Presented in the

‘14th AIM International Workshop’

Tsukuba, Japan, February 15-16, 2009


India Economy-Energy-Emissions Trends

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Indices, Base:1980=100

Energy consumption

Energy/person

Energy Intensity of GDP

Population

Electricity Consumption

GDP at factor cost

2006

300

Data Sources: CMIE, CEA, Census 2001, Economic Surveys and Government of India Ministry reports

2008


Modeling Framework


Integrated Modeling Framework

DATABASES

-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKAL

Model

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd Use Demand

Model

AIM Strateg

ic Datab

ase(SDB)

Integrated Modelling Framework

DATABASES


AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKAL

Model


Model

AIM Strateg

ic Datab

ase(SDB)

DATABASES


AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKAL

Model


Model

AIM Strateg

ic Datab

ase(SDB)

Integrated Modelling Framework


AIM CGE Framework

Production Sector (4)

Household Sector

Produced Goods

(Y) market

Production factor

market (K,L)

Environment

OutputValue

Added

Intermediate

Demand (X)

Final

Demand

(C)

Endowment

(K*, L*)

Feedback

Feedback

Pollution

Pollution

Source : Masui, T, 2005


India AIM CGE Data Structure

1. Indian I/O Table (1998-99)• 115 X 115 Commodity

2. Aggregated to• 8 Sector X 8 Sector

• 5 Energy Sectors• Coal, Oil, Gas, Nuclear, Renewable

• 3 Production Sectors• Agriculture, Manufacturing, Services

3. Exogenous Inputs• Carbon Tax trajectory• Fossil fuel prices


Energy Economy Environment System

MINING

IMPORT

EXPORT

COAL

N. GAS

OIL

BIOMASS

NUCLEAR

RENEWABLE

45

ENVIRONMENT

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

COAL

GAS

HYDRO

NUCLEAR SOLAR

PETROLEUM

REFINERY

75

ENDUSE DEVICES

PUMP

TRACTOR

FURNACE

MOTOR

LIGHT BULB

COOLER

BUS

TRAIN

STOVE

FAN

ECONOMY

AGRICULTURE

INDUSTRY

TRANSPORT

COMMERCIAL

RESIDENTIAL

35

90

TECHNOLOGY CAPITAL

EMISSIONS

ENERGY

PROCESSING


End-Use Demand Projection Model

Macro Economic

Models – Overall GDP

Projections

Sector Share

ForecastingExpert

Opinions

Sector Elasticity

Module

End-use

Demand


AIM SNAPSHOT

Primary Energy

Final Energy

Services

CO2 emission

Primary Energy

Final Energy

Services

CO2 emission

Emission factors Emission factors

Energy use efficiency

Transformation efficiency

Energy use efficiency

Transformation efficiency

Base Year Target Year


Base Case Projections


Base Scenario: Assumptions

Base Scenario

1. GDP • Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50

• 2050 Economy: 23 times larger than 2005

2. Population • 2000: 1021 Million

• 2050: 1593 Million

3. 650 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2)

4. 4.7 W/m2 Radiative Forcing

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2020 2035 2050

Base Year 2005=1

Annual Growth Rate 2005-50: 7.3%

Annual Growth Rate 2005-32: 8%

GDP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

US $/person

Per Capita Income

Savings Rate

20.622.8

24.6

33.035.0

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

4037??


Future Energy Mix: India

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mtoe

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass


Future Carbon Emissions: India

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million Ton CO2


LCS through Conventional Climate Centric Vision


Alternate Development Visions

Stabilization Target and Visions

1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:

• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration

• 3.4 W/m2

• @ 3o C temperature increase (50:50)

2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)

1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path

2. ‘Sustainability’ Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions

What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?


LCS via Climate Centric Actions

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilization


1. Top-down/Supply-side actions

2. High Carbon Price as main instrument

3. Climate Focused Technology Push

Vision I: Climate Centric Scenario

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million Ton CO2

Others

CCS

Device Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

Base

CT

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million Ton CO2

OthersOthers

CCS

Device EfficiencyDevice Efficiency

Renewable Energy Renewable Energy

Electricity (Fuel Switch)Electricity (Fuel Switch)

Base

CT


LCS with Sustainability


India: National Climate Change Action Plan

8 National Missions:

1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017)

2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012)

3. Sustainable habitat

4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement)

5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system

6. A “Green India” (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%)

7. Sustainable agriculture

8. Strategic knowledge for climate change


Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock-ins

Long-term Vision

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

National Socio-economicObjectives and Targets

Global Climate ChangeObjectives and Targets

TargetsInterventionsDriversAim

Back-casting

LCS with Sustainability


1. Low Carbon Price

2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions

3. Behavioural Change

4. Diverse Technology Portfolio

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OthersCCS

Transport Mode

Urban Planning

ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance Efficiency

Renewable Energy Building

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million Ton CO2

Renewable Energy Renewable

Vision II: Sustainability Scenario


Sustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures

• Land-use Planning

• Building Choices

• Infrastructures

• Service Networks

Technologies for Train Corridors

Bus Rapid Transport System


Dematerialization

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Demand (Million Ton)

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

0

200

400

600

800

1000


Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

Cement

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Steel

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

SocietyDemand (Million Ton)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Steel

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Conventional

Development

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Paper

Demand (Trillion Ton-Kms)

0

1000

2000

3000

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

Transport

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Co-benefits of Energy Choices

CoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia

Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market

0.031050 Million TonSO2

0.98359Total

0.08285.1 Billion TonCO2 Equiv.

0.8732160 Exa JouleEnergy

% GDP$ BillionBenefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

• Flood control (MDG1&7)

• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

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India

China

Iran

Pakistan

Afghanistan

OmanMyanmar (Burma)

Thailand

Nepal

Turkmenistan

Saudi Arabia

Tajikistan

Yemen

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Uzbekistan

Somalia

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Laos

Malaysia

Bahrain

IndonesiaMaldives

Pune

GayaKota

Guna

Gadag

Kochi

Patna

Delhi

Anand

Dadra

SuratOlpad

Kalol

Panvel

Hassan

Dispur

Ambala

Nangal

Kanpur

Jhansi

UjjainJhabua

Valsad

NadiadRajkot

SolapurGuhagarChiptun

Chennai

Nellore

Kolkata

Sangrur

Sonipat

AuraiyaGwalior

Chotila Bharuch

Palmaner

Chittoor

Kokinada

Ludhiana

Bathinda

Bareilly

Vijaypur

Mahesana

Tutikorin

Mangalore

Bangalore

Vijaywada

Faridabad

Ratnagiri

Kayankulam

Coimbatore

Jagdishpuri

Shahjahanpur

Vishakhapattnam

Tiruchchirappalli

Herat

MultanQuetta

Khuzdar

Karachi

Delaram

Kandhar

South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas

Legend Important Places

Existing Gas Pipelines

Proposed Gas Pipelines

Existing LNG terminals

Proposed LNG terminals

Existing Gas Basin

Gas Pipelines under construction

Proposed Gas Basin¨


LCS with Lower Carbon Prices

Base Case

Conventional Society

Sustainable Society

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2020 2030 2040

Price CO2 (US $/tCO2)

2050

CO2 Price


Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation


Water Availability: DELHI

BHAKRA CANAL

BHAKRA MAIN BRANCH

NARWANA BRANCH

NANGAL DAM

ROPAR H /W

WESTERN YAMUNA CANAL

EASTERN YAMUNA CANAL

RENUKA DAM

DADAHU

DAM

KESHAU DAM

LEKHWAR DAMTEHR IDAM

TA JEW ALA

H/W

HAR IDWAR

H /W

UPPER GANGA CANAL

MURADNAGAR

OFFTAKE

DELHI DI STRIBUTORY

PARALLEL CHANNEL

RIVER YAMUNA

WAZ IRABAD BA RRAGE

W AZ IRA BAD BARRAGE

OKHLA BARRAGE

RI VER YAMUNA

HINDON CUT

HA IDERPUR WW I (100 MGD)

HAIDERPUR WW II (100 MGD )

CHANDRAWAL WW II (55 MGD)

CHANDRAWAL

WW I (55 MGD)

WAZIRABAD

WW (120 MGD)

NANGLO I W TP (40 MGD )

BAWANA W TP

(20 MGD )SON IA VIHAR W TP (140 MGD)

BHAGIRATHI W TP (100 MGD)

AGRA CANAL

GURGAON CANAL

O KHLA W TP (20 MGD)

OKHLA GW TP

(12 MGD)

DWARKA W TP

(40 MGD)

RAW WATERARRANGEMENT

Yamuna: 310 MGD

Ganga: 100 MGD

BBMB: 140 MGD

Ground: 100 MGD

Water Demand

Population

Population and Water Demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2001 2021 2051 2071 2091 2101

Year

Population (Millions)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Water Demand (MGD)



Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi (without Climate Change)

Water Supply from Various Sources

310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

100 100240 240 240 240 240 240 2400 0

80 80 80 80 80 80 80

0 0

45 45 45 45 45 45

100 100

135 135 135 135 135 135 135

0 0

0 0

440

865 865 865 865

0 0

0

200

200

400 400 400 400

0 0

0

55

55 55 55 55

45

55

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101

Year

Yamuna river bed potential

NCR Augmentation (CGWB)

Additional Plan

Sub Surface Water

Recycling of Waste Water

Saving of Seepage

Upper Ganga Canal

BBMB

Yamuna River



Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi under Climate Change

Water Supply from Various Sources Under Climate Change

310 372 372 372 372248 248

140168 168 144.2 128.8

120.4 116.2

100

288 288247.2 220.8

206.4 199.2

0 0

80 8080

80

80 800 0

4545

45

45 45100

135 135135

135

135 135

0 0

0 0

462692

648.75 631.45

0 0

0

200

200

400

400 400

0 0

0

55

55

55 55

248310

112140

192100

8045

45

135

100

501.7

400

55

55

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101

Year

Yamuna river bed potential

NCR Augmentation (CGWB)

Additional Plan

Sub Surface Water

Recycling of Waste Water

Saving of Seepage

Upper Ganga Canal

BBMB

Yamuna River


LCS Scenarios and Modeling: Next Plans


Sustainability: Domains, Elements and Actions

Sustainability Domains

DomainTypologies

Actions/Instruments(Examples)

How can preferences be shaped & aligned with sustainability

goals?

What are the drivers of key socio-politico-

economic development processes?

Processes/ Institutions

How do human and natural

systems evolve? How do they interact?

How to sustain & enhance capital

stocks in interest of present & future generations?

Capital Stocks

Systems

• Natural

• Man-made

• Human

• Social

• Globalization

• Urbanization

• Industrialization

• Public

• Private/Personal

• Community

Conservation, Tax

Design, Standards

Investments, Access

Awareness, Media

Water Management, Trade

Cap & Trade, Eco-funds

Market Reforms, Tariffs

Zoning, User Charges

Competition, R&D

Social Security

Choices, Freedoms

• Human (e.g. Food System)

• Natural (e.g. Environment)

Preferences

Key Elements(Examples)

Natural Resources, Ecology

Buildings, Infrastructures

Education, Health

Institutions, Social Networks

Diets, Technologies

Climate Change, Bio-diversity

Trade, Migration

Urban Planning, Regulations

Industry Structure, Innovation

Rights, Equity, Public Goods

Lifestyle, Savings

Norms, Customs, Traditions Dialogue, Media


LCS Scenarios: Next Step

Conventional Sustainability

LCS Scenarios with Stabilization Targets

Baseline

StabilizationTargets

Scenarios

Geography Level

2.68.4 2.68.44.6 4.6

Radiative ForcingW/m2

Global Regional National Global Regional National


• LCS Scenarios to focus on:– Behavioral Changes, Innovations and Co-benefits

– Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins

• Sustaining Capital Stocks– Natural, Man-made, Human & Social

• Use Systems Approach for Analysis– Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment

• Interventions to influence Drivers of Change– Assess and influence Processes

– Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change)

• Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences– Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices

Next Plan: LCS Scenarios with Sustainability


•Mainstream climate actions in development plans– Include sustainability policies in Baseline

– Pay attention to that avoids lock-ins into high emissions paths

– Ensure bottom-up actions coordinate with top-down vision and policies

•Model ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’:

– Co-benefits as a positive-sum game

– AIM achieving LCS that meets global target at Low Carbon Price

– Focus on behavior and drivers that deliver Low Energy and Emissions Future

•Model exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization which are needed beyond sustainability policies

•Model adaptation to residual climate change, though in Low Carbon World climate risks shall be much lower

Next Plan: Modeling LCS with Sustainability

Thank you

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