Louisville by the NumbersRecent Trends in Population, Households, and Housing

Sales and Marketing CouncilHome Builders Association of Louisville

Michael PriceKentucky State Data CenterUniversity of Louisville

Louisville, KentuckyJune 14, 2012

Source: William H. Frey

New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States

America’s New Regions

The New Sunbelt

Melting Pot America

The Heartland

Diversity states

Slow growth states

Migration growth states

America’s New Demographic Regions

Source: William Frey.

Colorado Georgia-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1.9

12.28.6

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1.6

10.0

8.1

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

New Sunbelt

New Sunbelt: Examples

Source: William Frey.

California New York

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

7.4

-7.2

10.4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

6.0

-10.2

5.3

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

Melting Pot: Examples

Melting Pot

Source: William Frey & Michael Price

Pennsylvania

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0.9

-2.1

2

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

Heartland: Examples

Heartland

Series1

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0.92.3

4.1

Kentucky

Kentucky 2010 Census ResultsNumber Change in Population by County 2000 - 2010

State population count change: 297,598

Largest growing counties

Jefferson (47,492)

Fayette (35,291)

Boone (32,820)

Warren (21,270)

Oldham (14,138)

Fastest growing counties

Spencer (45%)

Scott (43%)

Boone (38%)

Oldham (31%)

On the downside

36 counties lost population.

27 counties grew by less than 4%.

88 counties grew slower than the state.

Biggest Losers

Harlan (-3,924)

Pike (-3,712)

Floyd (-2,990)

Clay (-2,826)

Fastest Losers

Breathitt (-14%)

Fulton (-12%)

Harlan (-12%)

Clay (-12%)

In metro areas In micro areas In rural areas

83.7%

10.0% 6.3%

58.4%

17.6%24.0%

United States Kentucky

Total Population Distribution 2010

Total Population

In metro areas

In micro areas

In rural areas

9.7%

10.8%

5.9%

1.8%

7.4%

11.1%

5.9%

0.2%

Kentucky United States

Population Growth 2000-2010

Bowling Green

Cincinnati

Clarksville

Elizabethtown

Evansville

Huntington-Ashland

Lexington-Fayette

Louisville

Owensboro

20.9%

12.3%

4.0%

11.3%

1.6%

15.6%

10.5%

4.4%

Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas Percent Change 2000-2010

Bowling Green

Cincinnati

Clarksville

Elizabethtown

Evansville

Huntington-Ashland

Lexington-Fayette

Louisville

Owensboro

21,787

46,489

3,432

12,189

922

63,773

97,998

4,877

Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas 2000-2010

Jefferson (47,138)

Oldham (14,138)

Bullitt(13,083)

Spencer (5,295)

Trimble (684)

Clark(13,851)

Harrison (5,039)

Meade(2,253)

Shelby (8,737)

Henry (356)Washington (1,039)

Nelson (5,960)

Floyd(3,755)

Louisville MSAPopulation Growth 2000-2010(121,682)

Louisville/Jefferson741,096

Nelson 43,437Oldham 60,316

Bullitt 74,319

Floyd 74,578

Clark

110

,323

Henry

Spencer

Washington 28,262

Meade 28,608

Harrison 39,364

Shelby 42,074

Trim

ble

17,061

15,416

8,809

Louisville MSATotal Population 2010

1,283,557

Louisville/ Jef-ferson

Louisville MSA

Kentucky

United States

6.8%

10.5%

7.4%

9.7%

Percent Change in Population 2000 - 2010

SpencerOldham

ShelbyBullitt

NelsonHarrison

ClarkMeade

TrimbleJefferson

FloydWashington

Henry

45.0%30.6%

26.2%21.4%

15.9%14.7%14.4%

8.6%8.4%

6.8%5.3%

3.8%2.4%

Louisville MSA CountiesPercent Change in Population

2000 - 2010

JeffersonOldham

ClarkBullitt

ShelbyNelson

SpencerHarrison

FloydMeade

WashingtonTrimble

Henry

47,492

14,138

13,851

13,083

8,737

5,960

5,295

5,039

3,755

2,253

1,039

684

356

Louisville MSA CountiesPopulation Growth

2000 - 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Annual Rates of Population GrowthP

erce

nt

Cha

nge

Louisville MSA

Loui

svill

e/Je

ffers

on C

ount

y

United States

Preliminary estimates by Michael Price

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Louisville/Jefferson CountyComponents of Population Growth

Natural Increase

Net International Migration

Net Domestic Migration

Preliminary estimates by Michael Price

Population(in households)

Households

Housing Units

Household Size

Occupancy-Vacancy

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

3.363.16

2.69 2.48 2.37 2.35

Louisville/Jefferson County Household Size

Number of persons per household

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010150,000

250,000

350,000

450,000

550,000

650,000

750,000

598,914

726,943

178,192

309,175

188,311

337,616

Louisville/Jefferson County 1960-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1960-2000 and 2009 American Community Survey.

Household Population

Households

Housing Units

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

HH PopulationHouseholdsHousing Units

% C

ha

ng

eLouisville/Jefferson County Decennial Growth Rates

1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

5.4%4.6%

5.7%6.5% 6.2%

8.4%

Louisville/Jefferson CountyVacant Housing 1960-2010

Percent of total housing units not occupied

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

9.1%

10.1%10.5%

11.3%

10.2%

8.4%

Louisville/Jefferson County Vacant HousingPercent of total housing units not occupied

American Community Survey 2010 Census

Total Population Growth 2000 - 2010

Percent Change in Total Population 2000 - 2010

Louisville Vacant Housing 2000

Louisville Vacant Housing 2010

1990 2000 201050.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

64.5% 64.9%

63.1%

Louisville/Jefferson CountyPercent Owner-Occupied Households

Hispanic or Latino

Two or more races

Asian

Black or African American

Total Population

20,172

5,384

6,609

22,448

-7,495

47,492

White, not Hispanic

*Race categories exclude Hispanics.

Louisville/Jefferson CountyPopulation growth by race and Hispanic origin2000 - 2010

Hispanic or Latino

Two or more races

Asian

Black or African American

Total Population

60.9%

69.1%

17.3%

-1.4%

6.8%

White, not Hispanic

*Race categories exclude Hispanics.

Louisville/Jefferson CountyPercent change in population by race and Hispanic origin2000 - 2010

163.1%

From 2000 to 2010,Jefferson County population grew by 47,492.

• 16% of state total population growth

• 57% of state Black population growth

• 35% of state Asian population growth

• 28% of state Hispanic population growth

Black Population Growth 2000 - 2010

Percent Change in Black Population 2000 - 2010

2000 2010

64.9

56.0

Louisville/Jefferson CountyBlack – White Segregation Index

Median Family Income2000

Median Family Income2005/2009

Change in Median Family Income2000 – 2005/2009

Actual dollars (no adjustment for inflation)

Median value of owner-occupied housing2005/2009

Change in median house value2000 – 2005/2009

Change in actual dollars (no adjustment for inflations)

560,000

570,000

580,000

590,000

600,000

610,000

620,000

630,000

640,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Jobs, Louisville MSA1999 to 2010

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey, seasonally adjusted, through December 2010.

December, 2010: 586,000

peak: 628,000

drop in last recession of 4.5%

….but note that employment took 3 years to turn up after last downturn

drop of 7.0%

Source: Dr. Paul Coomes

Dayton

Greensboro

Louisville

Kansas City

Cincinnati

Columbus

Omaha

Birmingham

Memphis

Indianapolis

Richmond

Jacksonville

Nashville

Charlotte

Raleigh

-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

MSA Total Employment Growth 2001 - 2007

Percent Change

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Greensboro

Dayton

Birmingham

Memphis

Jacksonville

Charlotte

Cincinnati

Nashville

Columbus

Kansas City

Richmond

Indianapolis

Louisville

Raleigh

Omaha

-10.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0

MSA Total Employment Growth 2007 – June 2010 (P)

Percent Change

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Dayton

Greensboro

Birmingham

Memphis

Cincinnati

Kansas City

Columbus

Louisville

Indianapolis

Richmond

Jacksonville

Omaha

Charlotte

Nashville

Raleigh

-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

MSA Total Employment Growth 2001 – June 2010 (P)

Percent Change

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics