Looking Beyond the Shipyard

Economic Development Opportunities and Challenges in Southern Maine and the Seacoast of New Hampshire

Charles ColganUniversity of Southern Maine Ross GittellUniversity of New Hampshire

Overview

”We” came together to save the shipyard PNS is an asset, time to look forward and continue to work together

to shape the economic future of the region Geographic Triangle –Boston, Manchester, Portland… the

seacoast area is at the center of the triangle.. This presents Opportunity It also includes significant Risks

Development Triangle Tourism Center, Technology “Mini-Hub”, Suburb\Retirement Area Movement too much to any of these is not desired Balance among the three can be beneficial

Goal: Balanced and Beneficial Development

What brings us here… Understanding our Situation and Goals

Opportunities Strong economic foundation to work from a leading economic engine/region for 2 states and Northern New

England

Tensions Growth and sprawl Preserving natural resources and environment Maintaining the quality and character of our community

Three Economic Roles

Tourism Suburb/Retirement

Technology

Opportunities defined by the two triangles

1. Geography York, Rockingham and Strafford lie at the junction of

three expanding urban regions 2. Economic Specialization

The region’s future will be defined by the balance between three different economic roles

Economic Role of the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

York County Rockingham County

Direct Indirect County Indirect Rest of State

10%

1%

6%

0%2%

4%6%

8%10%

12%

Percentage ofYork County

Percentage ofRockingham

County

Percentage ofRegion

8978

1602

Demographic and Economic Dynamics

Similarities & Differences York and Rockingham, Strafford, Maine and NH, and US

Highlighting In-migration (from other states) Declining young adult population “Aging” Baby Boomer Concentration Employment and Population Growth Housing Prices and Income

Demographic-Economic Dynamic: All 3 counties have in-migration higher than US average (32%). About 2/3rds of residents in Rockingham were born in another state, just under 50% in York and Stafford.

Rank County % Of Population Born out of State

1 Rockingham 67.82 Carroll 59.23 Cheshire 52.84 Grafton 505 Hillsborough 47.96 Strafford 45.37 Sullivan 43.98 York,ME 43.89 Belknap 43.610 Merrimack 41.711 Coos 28.912 Middlesex,MA 21.313 Essex, MA 15.6

With in-migration …higher skilled and higher income population. Rockingham stands out. US averages define the coordinates.

Androscoggin

Belknap Carroll

Cheshire

Coos

Cumberland

Essex

Franklin

Grafton

Hillsborough

Kennebec Knox

LincolnMaine

Massassachusetts

Merrimack

Middlesex

New Hampshire

Oxford

Rockingham

SagadahocStrafford

US 31.18%, 29,845

York

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

% Pop Born Out of State 2000

PC

I 2

00

0

High Concentration of baby boomers in NH and Maine and in Rockingham and York. Relatively low percent of under 18 population in Strafford and York and Maine.

AndroscogginBelknap

Carroll

Cheshire

Coos

Cumberland

Essex

Grafton

Hillsborough

Kennebec

KnoxLincoln

MaineMassassachusetts

Merrimack

Middlesex

New Hampshire

Oxford

Rockingham

Sagadahoc

Strafford Sullivan

US 31.18%, 29,845

York

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%

% Pop 45 to 64 2000

% P

op

Un

de

r 1

8 2

00

0

Baby Boomers are aging, unlike 1990 the region (except for Strafford) no longer has higher percentage of 25-34 year olds than the US average.

Maine YorkSagadahoc

Oxford

Lincoln

KnoxKennebec

Cumberland

Aroostook

Androscoggin

New Hampshire

Sullivan

Strafford

Rockingham

Merrimack

HillsboroughGrafton

Coos

Cheshire

Carroll

Belknap

US 17.4%, 13.7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21%

Percentage of Population Age 25-34 1990

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Po

pu

lati

on

Ag

e 2

5-3

4 2

00

4

Declining young adult (25 to 34 year old) entry level work cohort, 1990 to 2004.

Compared to 1990 to 2004, US average of 7% decline in young adults Rockingham County declined 38% York, 23.% Strafford, 13% This is a New England concern… there are 4 states in

the region (including NH and Maine) among the 5 states with the greatest percentage decline in young adult population…

Now Rockingham and York have high concentration of 45-64 year olds.. This was not true in 1990.

US 18.6%, 24.1%

Belknap

Carroll

Cheshire

Coos

Grafton

Hillsborough

Merrimack

Rockingham

Strafford

Sullivan

New Hampshire

Androscoggin

Aroostook

Cumberland

Kennebec

Knox

Lincoln

Oxford

SagadahocYork Maine

23%

25%

27%

29%

31%

15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22%

Percentage of Population Age 45-64 1990

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Po

pu

lati

on

Ag

e 4

5-6

4 2

00

4

Older population concentration in Maine.. Above average percentages of 65+ and below average young cohort in York. Rockingham concentration of boomers. Strafford college aged concentration.

Androscoggin

Belknap

Carroll

Cheshire

Coos

Cumberland

Essex

Franklin

Grafton

Hillsborough

Kennebec

KnoxLincoln

Maine

Massassachusetts

Merrimack

Middlesex

New Hampshire

Oxford

Rockingham

Sagadahoc

Strafford Sullivan

US 31.18%, 29,845

York

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19%

% Pop 65 or Over 2000

% P

op

Un

de

r 1

8 2

00

0

Income, Economy, Employment and Industry

Focusing on the Industrial Base and Economic Future

Household Income Rockingham ranks highest in household income .similar to northeastern Mass.. Strafford and York have lower percentage of high income households.

Rank County Median HH Income

Rank County %HH 100K+

1 Middlesex,MA $60,821 1 Middlesex,MA 24.92 Rockingham $58,150 2 Essex, MA 19.03 Hillsborough $53,384 3 Rockingham 18.94 Essex, MA $51,576 4 Hillsborough 16.65 Merrimack $48,522 5 Merrimack 12.16 Strafford $44,803 6 Grafton 10.17 York,ME $43,630 7 Carroll 9.48 Belknap $43,605 8 Strafford 9.49 Cheshire $42,382 9 Belknap 9.310 Grafton $41,962 10 York,ME 8.811 Sullivan $40,938 11 Cheshire 8.712 Carroll $39,990 12 Sullivan 7.313 Coos $33,593 13 Coos 4.1

Over last 2 decades Rockingham an employment growth center. York more of a population growth center…Strafford neither.

Sullivan

Strafford

Rockingham

Merrimack

Hillsborough

Grafton

Coos

Cheshire

Carroll

Belknap

New Hampshire

Middlesex

Essex

Massachusetts

York

Sagadahoc

Oxford

Lincoln

Knox

Kennebec

Franklin

Cumberland

Androscoggin

Maine

US 16.49%, 19.94%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Population Change 1990-03

Em

plo

ym

en

t C

ha

ng

e 1

99

0-0

3

Housing prices in the area relative to 3-state region and compared to US average are not “out of line” with income ..but affordability is issue for local workers

Androscoggin

Belknap

Carroll

Cheshire

Coos

Cumberland

Essex

Franklin

Grafton

Hillsborough

Kennebec Knox

Lincoln

Maine

MassassachusettsMerrimack

Middlesex

New Hampshire

Oxford

Rockingham

Strafford

Sullivan

US 31.18%, 29,845

York

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Median Owner Occ Housing Value 2000

Me

dia

n H

H In

co

me

20

00

More recently York emerging as employment growth area and Strafford as a population growth center.

Sullivan

Strafford

Rockingham

Merrimack

Hillsborough

Grafton

Coos Cheshire

Carroll

Belknap

New Hampshire

Middlesex

Essex

Massachusetts

York

SagadahocOxford

Lincoln

Knox

Kennebec

Franklin

CumberlandAndroscoggin

Maine

US 1.99%, 0.10%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Population Change 2001-03

Em

plo

ym

en

t C

ha

ng

e 2

00

1-0

3

Rockingham has balance of leisure & hospitality and high tech employment. York has concentration in leisure and hospitality, not tech. Strafford does not have high concentration of either.

York

US 31.18%, 29,845

Sullivan

Strafford

Sagadahoc

Rockingham

Oxford

New Hampshire

Middlesex

Merrimack

Massassachusetts

Maine

LincolnKnox

Kennebec

Hillsborough

Grafton

Franklin

Essex

Cumberland

Coos

Cheshire Carroll

Belknap

Androscoggin0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Leisure & Hosp Emp Concentration 2003

Hig

h T

ec

h E

mp

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n 2

00

3

Rockingham high per capita income related to high technology concentration and high percent of population with college degree.. Neither York or Strafford above US average in high tech or income per capita.

York

US 31.18%, 29,845

Sullivan

Strafford Sagadahoc

Rockingham

Oxford

New Hampshire

Middlesex

Merrimack

Massassachusetts

Maine

Lincoln

Knox

Kennebec

Hillsborough

Grafton

Franklin

Essex

Cumberland

Coos

Cheshire

Carroll

Belknap

Androscoggin

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

High Tech Emp Concentration 2003

PC

I 2

00

3

Leading Industries

Strafford, Rockingham and York

Commonalities among Top 25 Industries in Each County

Leading industries defined as high specialization and high growth

Rank Strafford County Rockingham County York County1 Lumber and const. supply merchant wholesalers Employment Services Offices of physicians2 Special food services Computer Systems Design and Related Services Residential building construction3 Architectural and engineering services Management of Companies & Enterprises Architectural and engineering services4 Other personal services Limited Service Eating Establishments Ship and boat building5 Grocery and Related Product Wholesalers Commercial & Service industry machinery manufacturing Automobile dealers6 Advertising and related services Software Publishing Other specialty trade contractors7 Machine shops and threaded product mfg. Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Depository credit intermediation8 Building equipment contractors Petroleum and petroleum products wholesale Computer systems design and related services9 Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals Other financial investment activities Management and technical consulting services10 Other motor vehicle dealers Grocery stores Building equipment contractors11 Private households Concrete contractors Household and institutional furniture mfg.12 National Security Nursing care facilities Legal services13 Accounting and bookkeeping services Services to buildings & dwellings Direct selling establishments14 Building foundation and exterior contractors Semiconductor & other electronic component manufacturing Electronic markets and agents and brokers15 Utility system construction Department stores Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing16 Offices of physicians Lumber & other construction materials wholesale Machinery and supply merchant wholesalers17 Residential building construction Automobile Dealers Elementary and secondary schools18 Remediation and other waste services Elementary & secondary schools Building finishing contractors19 Individual and family services Building and materials supplies dealers Architectural and structural metals mfg.20 Direct selling establishments Scientific R&D services Offices of real estate agents and brokers21 Management and technical consulting services Offices of physicians Offices of dentists22 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores Special trade contractors Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related23 Other specialty trade contractors Architectural, Engineering &related services Commercial equip. merchant wholesalers24 Professional and similar organizations Other support services Electronics and appliance stores25 Activities related to real estate Direct selling establishments Machine shops and threaded product mfg.

Strafford- York in Common Common to All Counties Rockingham-York in Common

Key Export Industries Unique to Each County

Rank Strafford County Rockingham County York County1 Lumber and const. supply merchant wholesalers Employment Services Offices of physicians2 Special food services Computer Systems Design and Related Services Residential building construction3 Architectural and engineering services Management of Companies & Enterprises Architectural and engineering services4 Other personal services Limited Service Eating Establishments Ship and boat building5 Grocery and Related Product Wholesalers Commercial & Service industry machinery manufacturing Automobile dealers6 Advertising and related services Software Publishing Other specialty trade contractors7 Machine shops and threaded product mfg. Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Depository credit intermediation8 Building equipment contractors Petroleum and petroleum products wholesale Computer systems design and related services9 Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals Other financial investment activities Management and technical consulting services10 Other motor vehicle dealers Grocery stores Building equipment contractors11 Private households Concrete contractors Household and institutional furniture mfg.12 National Security Nursing care facilities Legal services13 Accounting and bookkeeping services Services to buildings & dwellings Direct selling establishments14 Building foundation and exterior contractors Semiconductor & other electronic component manufacturing Electronic markets and agents and brokers15 Utility system construction Department stores Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing16 Offices of physicians Lumber & other construction materials wholesale Machinery and supply merchant wholesalers17 Residential building construction Automobile Dealers Elementary and secondary schools18 Remediation and other waste services Elementary & secondary schools Building finishing contractors19 Individual and family services Building and materials supplies dealers Architectural and structural metals mfg.20 Direct selling establishments Scientific R&D services Offices of real estate agents and brokers21 Management and technical consulting services Offices of physicians Offices of dentists22 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores Special trade contractors Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related23 Other specialty trade contractors Architectural, Engineering &related services Commercial equip. merchant wholesalers24 Professional and similar organizations Other support services Electronics and appliance stores25 Activities related to real estate Direct selling establishments Machine shops and threaded product mfg.

Vulnerabilities

Demographics High costs .. Relative to growing areas in US (e.g.,

North Carolina, Georgia) Turning into a “Boston suburb” or retirement

community Differences and frictions across the river

OpportunitiesIndustries and industry issues to focus on

Export Industries …essential for a strong economic future Manufacturing, small and medium-sized firms, niche supplier firms,

and innovation & new product focus High Technology, computer component parts, software development,

information and computer system design Tourism, leisure and hospitality and eating establishments

Employment Services Services a broad range of industries Both high and low skilled and waged jobs

Health Care as an Industry Significant employer Service industry …part of quality of life As export industry … selective areas of opportunity?

Opportunities (continued) Industries and industry issues to focus on

Professional Services and Corporate Offices Engineering and architectural services

Finance and Insurance Construction and real estate ..have been strong but

vulnerability Creative Industries ..art, culture, music … add to the

quality of life and help attract skilled workers and entrepreneurs to the area

Development issues that need to be

considered

Demographics Paucity of younger skilled workers Aging population and workforce Migration … in and out-migration of domestic,

foreign immigration Education and training for the “right” jobs and

industries K-16+ quality and coordination in the region Need for science, engineering, IT and math focus

Promoting Entrepreneurship and Innovation

Development issues that need to be

considered

Quality of Life as an economic development asset recreational amenities, health care system, low

crime, historical resource, social capital, socio-economic diversity

Infrastructure Housing… affordability, availability for workforce,

diversity Transportation – regional multi-modal hub, local

roads to relieve bottlenecks on bridges and elsewhere, public transport

Energy ..costs and alternative fuels/sources Water supply

Implementation issues..

Collaboration Acting on common interest Recognizing differences Reducing conflicts Working together on specific initiatives of

mutual benefit Marketing/Branding of the Area

Business recruitment and retention Tourism development

Beyond PNH Initiatives… some ideas

Education & Training: Sharing & Adding Capacity/Resources

Community college cooperative agreements and arrangements

Math, Science & Technology Institute (center of excellence) for primary and secondary students

Graduate Education tied to the regional economy –UNH-USM (in business, marine and atmospheric sciences, computer science and engineering programs)

Beyond PNH Initiatives… some ideas

Transport nodes and roads

Strafford-Rockingham-York “mini-128” loop Multi-Modal Hub/Center for commuting

Local public transport network (for younger workers, low income and elderly and to reduce pollution)

Train service to Boston and other locations Regular bus service to Manchester Airport Ferry Services, tourism and commuters

Beyond PNH Initiatives…some more ideas

Housing.. Multi-unit and rental in larger cities and

towns Conversion of seasonal housing to year-

round Business Incubator

For technology start-ups For entrepreneurial ventures For female and immigrant owned

businesses

Community College Resources in the York/Rockingham Region

Pease Campus of NHCTC Stratham Campus of NHCTC York County Community College

Biotechnology Accounting Accounting

  Automotive Technology Business Administration

Computer Aided Drafting Early Childhood Education Computer Aided Drafting and Design

Computer Technology General Studies Computer Technology

Information Systems Technology Liberal Arts Culinary Arts

  Management Digital Media

  Marketing Early Childhood Education

  Nursing Hotel/Restaurant Management

  Surgical Technology Liberal Studies

  Verterinary Technology Para Education

    Trade and Technical Occupations

Multi-unit housing opportunity

37.5%

33.8%

25.9%

13.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Northeast Rockingham County Region York County

% M

ult

i-F

am

ily

Three Economic Roles

Tourism Suburb/Retirement

Technology

Where do we go from here ??

It is up to you!!