long-term trends in uncertainty of element fluxes at the hubbard brook experimental forest
DESCRIPTION
Long-term trends in uncertainty of element fluxes at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. Mark Green, Donald Buso , John Campbell, Carrie Rose Levine, Gene Likens, Ruth Yanai. Element Fluxes. : Flux [mass per time]. : Concentration [mass per volume]. : Concentration [volume per time]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Long-term trends in uncertainty of element fluxes at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest
Mark Green, Donald Buso, John Campbell, Carrie Rose Levine, Gene Likens, Ruth Yanai
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Element Fluxes
: Flux [mass per time]
: Concentration [mass per volume]
: Concentration [volume per time]
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Hubbard Brook
New Hampshire
White Mtn. Natl. Forest
Hubbard Brook Experimental ForestWhite Mountain National Forest, NH
Map courtesy of Dr. John Campbell, USFS
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Our Guiding Questions
How certain are our flux signals?
Is there new information that may arise from quantifying uncertainty?
ObjectivePropagate some sources of uncertainty through flux estimates.
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Approach
• Quantify uncertainty in annual fluxes into and out from Watershed 6 at HBEF– Nitrate– Silicon
• Only a few sources of uncertainty are addressed so far
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Modified from Harmon et al. (2007)
UNCERTAINTY
Natural Variability
Spatial Variability
Temporal Variability
Knowledge Uncertainty
Measurement Error
Model Error
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Model Selection Uncertainty
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Weekly Average
Time
StreamwaterConcentration
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Linear Interpolation
Time
StreamwaterConcentration
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-1.9%
-3.7%
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Model Parameter Uncertainty
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Steps in Flux Calculation
For every gap between samples:1. Calculate mean concentration2. Determine the inter-sample residuals
based on season and date3. Add a bootstrapped residual to the mean4. Calculate annual flux
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Nitrate
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Silica
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Summary
Nitrate• Uncertainty in model selection: 3%• Uncertainty in inter-sample mean: 17%
Silicon• Uncertainty in inter-sample mean: 9%
Maybe novel information in IQR:Median
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Next: More sources in streamwater, finalize precipitation, and propagate to net hydrologic flux.
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http://quantifyinguncertainty.org/
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Modified from Harmon et al. (2007)
UNCERTAINTY
Natural Variability
Spatial Variability
Temporal Variability
Knowledge Uncertainty
Measurement Error
Model Error
Atmospheric Inputs
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Alternative spatial models for precipitation in the Hubbard Brook Valley
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Alternative spatial models for precipitation in the Hubbard Brook Valley
0.36%
0.58%
0.24%
0.77%
0.83%
Coefficient of variation between models