long-term trends and variability of suisun marsh salinity...long-term trends collinsville sc...

Long-Term Trends andVariability of Suisun

Marsh Salinity

Chris EnrightDWR

Suisun Marsh Branch

Suisun Marsh Salinity Trends

• Data and methods:- precipitation, outflow, salinity

• Long-term trends - “Pre” and “post” project

3. Among month trends - “Pre” and “post” project

4. Suisun Marsh Salinity Control Gate effect5. Time-scale variability6. Bathymetry trends also affect salinity

1. Data and Methods• SF Estuary Watershed Precipitation• Delta Outflow• 3 Suisun Marsh/Bay salinity records

Mt. Shasta City

Shasta DamMineral

Quincy

Brush Creek

Sierraville

Blue Canyon

Pacific HouseCalaveras Big Trees

Hetch Hetchy

Merced River

Huntington LakeNorth Fork

0 60 120 180 24030Miles

Legend

Precipitation Stations

MajorWaterways

Drainage Basin

µDWR Flood ManagementSacramento and

San Joaquin Tributary Precipitation Stations (13)

1920-2002

San Francisco Estuary Watershed Precipitation1. Data and Methods (cont.)

1. Data and Methods (cont.)

• Monthly average Delta outflow fromDayflow (1929 – 2002)


• Long salinity records available for– Port Chicago (since 1947)– Beldons Landing (since 1929)– Collinsville (since 1920)

• 4 day TDS grab samples through 1971• Continuous SC 1966 to present.• 4-5 year overlap of grab TDS and

continuous SC (Port Chicago & Collinsville)

0 5 10 150

5

10

15

20PORT CHICAGOApril - September data, 1966 - 1971SC = 1.192 * TDS - .4825R2 = 0.97

0 1 2 3 4 5 60

2

4

6COLLINSVILLE April - September data, 1966 - 1970SC = 1.183 * TDS - .02374R2 = 0.96

Regression of Monthy Average Specific Conductivity on MonthlyAverage High-High Tide Grab Sample TDS

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

SC

(mm

hos/

cm)

Monthly Average of 4-Day HHT TDS

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140

5

10

15PORT CHICAGOOctober - March data, 1966 - 1971SC = 1.196 * TDS - .03497R2 = 0.93

0 1 2 30

1

2

3

4COLLINSVILLE October - March data, 1966 - 1970SC = 1.242 * TDS - .06364R2 = 0.98


Regression of monthly average SC on monthlyaverage high tide grab sample TDS (1966-1971)

Monthly Average of 4-Day HHT TDS

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

SC

(m

mho

s/cm

)

02

46

02

46 Collinsville Month Average SC data

Month Average SC Predicted from 4-Day HHT TDS Grab Sample Data

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

05

1015

20

Port Chicago

SC

(m

mho

s/cm

)

Figure xx. Actual monthly average SC for Port Chicago and Collinsville (blue) versus monthly average SC predicted from regression models of monthly average SC on historical monthly average of 4-day HHT TDS (black).


TDS to SC conversion validation S

C (m

mho

s/cm

)

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

SC

(m

mho

s/cm

) Port Chicago

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

SC

(m

mho

s/cm

) Beldons Landing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

SC

(m

mho

s/cm

) Collinsville

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

OU

TFLO

W (

CM

S/1

000) Net Delta Outflow Index Total Export

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.00.050.100.150.200.250.300.35

EX

PO

RT

(CM

S/1

000)

Figure xx. Monthly Average, 12 month running average, and 5 year running average specific conductivity. Prior to 1966, SC estimated from approximately four high tide TDS grab samples per week.

Historical Suisun Marsh/Bay Salinity 1920 - 2002

Monthly Average SC12 Month Running Average SC5 Year Running Average SC


Historical Suisun Marsh/Bay Salinity: 1920 - 2002

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

SC

SC

SC

2. Long-Term Trends

Historical Outflow and Total ExportC

MS

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000 San Luis Reservoir Operation

Mean Outflow = 818 CMSMean Pre 1968 Outflow = 838 CMSMean Post 1968 Outflow = 795 CMS

Mean Export = 130 CMSMean Pre 1968 Export = 43 CMSMean Post 1968 Export = 176 CMS

818 CMS

130 CMS

“Pre Project” “Post Project”“Pre SMSCG” “Post SMSCG”

2. Long-term trends

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

2

4

6

8Monthtly Delta Outflow

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5 Seasonal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.6 Decadal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000.72

0.76

0.80

0.84

0.88 Trend Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-2

0

2

4

6Residual

OU

TFLO

W (

TCM

S)

Seasonal LOESS Trend Decompositon of Delta Outflow

Delta Outflow Seasonal LOESS trend decomposition

2. Long-term trends

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

2

4

6

8Monthtly Delta Outflow

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4

-2

0

2

4Seasonal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4

-2

0

2

4Decadal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4

-2

0

2

4Trend Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-2

0

2

4

6Residual

OU

TFLO

W (

TCM

S)

Seasonal LOESS Trend Decompositon of Delta Outflow

2. Long-term trendsDelta Outflow

Seasonal LOESS trend decomposition

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200005

1015202530

Monthly Collinsville SC

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4-2

0

2

4 Seasonal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0 Decadal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Trend Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-505

101520 Residual

SC

(mm

hos/

cm)

Seasonal LOESS Trend Decompositon of Collinsville SC

2. Long-term trendsCollinsville SC


1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200005

1015202530

Monthly Beldons Landing SC

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-6-4-202468 Seasonal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-2-101234 Decadal Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20005.05.45.86.26.67.07.4 Trend Fit

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-8-4048

1216 Residual

SC

(mm

hos/

cm)

Seasonal LOESS Trend Decompositon of Beldons Landing SC

2. Long-term trendsBeldons Landing SC


1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200005

10152025 Monthly Port Chicago SC

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-6

-2

2

6Seasonal Fit

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-6-4-20246 Decadal Fit

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200089

1011121314

Trend Fit

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-10-6-226

10 Residual

SC

(mm

hos/

cm)

Seasonal LOESS Trend Decompositon of Port Chicago SC

2. Long-term trendsPort Chicago SC


ALL DATA1920 - 2002

PRE-PROJECT1920 - 1967

POST-PROJECT1968 - 2002

0.00.040.080.120.16

INC

HE

S/Y

R

p= 0.34

p= 0.34

p= 0.95

-6

-4

-2

0

CM

S/Y

R

p= 0.31

p= 0.76

p= 0.43

-0.08

-0.04

0.0

0.04

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.27

p= 6.1e-005

p= 0.074

-0.35-0.25-0.15-0.05

MM

HO

S/Y

R p= 0.99p= 0.073

p= 0.019

-0.040.0

0.040.080.12

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.65

p= 0.65

p= 0.15

SIGNIFICANT

SIGNIFICANT

Port Chicago SC

Precipitation

Delta Outflow

Collinsville SC

Beldons Landing SC

SIGNIFICANT

SIGNIFICANT

Trends in Annual Data (Kendall Tau)2. Long-term trends

ALL DATA1920 - 2002



0.00.040.080.120.16

INC

HE

S/Y

R

p= 0.34

p= 0.34

p= 0.95

-6

-4

-2

0

CM

S/Y

R

p= 0.31

p= 0.76

p= 0.43

-0.08

-0.04

0.0

0.04

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.27

p= 6.1e-005

p= 0.074

-0.35-0.25-0.15-0.05

MM

HO

S/Y

R p= 0.99p= 0.073

p= 0.019

-0.040.0

0.040.080.12

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.65

p= 0.65

p= 0.15

SIGNIFICANT

SIGNIFICANT

Port Chicago SC

Precipitation

Delta Outflow

Collinsville SC

Beldons Landing SC SIGNIFICANT

Trends in Annual Data (Kendall Tau)2. Long-term trends

Port Chicago SC

Precipitation

Delta Outflow

Collinsville SC

Beldons Landing SC(beginning 1981;1987-02)

0.00.040.080.120.16

INC

HE

S/Y

R

p= 0.34

p= 0.34

p= 0.95

-6

-4

-2

0

CM

S/Y

R

p= 0.31

p= 0.76

p= 0.43

-0.08

-0.04

0.0

0.04

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.27

p= 6.1e-005

p= 0.074

-0.35-0.25-0.15-0.05

MM

HO

S/Y

R p= 0.99p= 0.073

p= 0.019

-0.040.0

0.040.080.12

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.65

p= 0.65

p= 0.15

SIGNIFICANT

SIGNIFICANT

Trends in Annual Data (Kendall Tau)

ALL DATA1920 - 2002



2. Long-term trends

Long-Term Trends:

• Long-term trends are very small comparedto seasonal and decadal variability

• Salinity is anti-correlated with outflowexcept at Beldons Landing.

2. Long-term trends

3. Among Month Trends

-0.10

-0.05

0.0

0.05

0.10

0.15

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DECPre

cipi

tatio

n (IN

CH

ES

)

Slope of 13-Station Precipitation Trend (1921 – 2002)

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

January Precipitation Trend

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (IN

CH

ES

) Trend Slope ~ 0.07 inches/yr

3. Among month trends

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

-0.10

-0.05

0.0

0.05

0.10

0.15

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DECPre

cipi

tatio

n (IN

CH

ES

)

Slope of 13-Station Precipitation Trend (1921 – 2002)

Slope of Delta Outflow Trend (1929 – 2002)

Out

flow

(C

MS

)


-0.10-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.02

0.00.020.04 Collinsville (1921-2002)

-0.15-0.10-0.05

0.00.050.10 Beldons Landing (1929-2002)

-0.20

-0.10

0.0

0.10

0.20


Port Chicago (1947-2002)

Slope of SC Trend (1921 – 2002)S

C (

mm

hos/

cm)

Control SeasonControl Season


Among Month Trends:

• No significant precipitation trend any month.• Significant decreases in Delta outflow

– April, May, June

• Significant increases in Delta outflow– July August, September

• Salinity is coherent with outflow• Beldons Landing: April, May +2 mmhos/cm

October -3 mmhos/cm


4. Suisun Marsh SalinityControl Gate Effect

• SMSCG is operated between October and Mayonly when needed to meet salinity standards.

5

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

2002.72 2002.74 2002.76 2002.78 2002.80

5

10

15

20

Salinity Response to SMSCG OperationSept 20 - Oct 20, 2002

SC

(m

mho

s/cm

)

SMSCGS64

S49Beldons Landing

S42

S21

S35

Salinity Response to SMSCG OperationSept 20 – Oct 20, 2002

Full Bore SMSCG Operation Gates Open

4. SMSCG effect

0.0

0.05

0.10

0.15

INC

HE

S/Y

R

p= 0.34

p= 0.34

p= 0.95

-6-4

-20

CM

S/Y

R

p= 0.31

p= 0.76

p= 0.43

-0.08

-0.040.0

0.04

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.27

p= 6.1e-005

p= 0.074

-0.3-0.2-0.10.0

MM

HO

S/Y

R p= 0.99p= 0.073

p= 0.019

-0.05

0.0

0.05

0.10

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.65

p= 0.65

p= 0.15

Port Chicago SC

Precipitation

Delta Outflow

Collinsville SC

Beldons Landing SC


ALL DATA1920 - 2002



4. SMSCG effect

Port Chicago SC

Precipitation

Delta Outflow

Collinsville SC

Beldons Landing SC

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

INC

HE

S/Y

R

p= 0.34 p= 0.34p= 0.95

-15

-5

5

15C

MS

/YR

p= 0.31 p= 0.76p= 0.43

-0.2-0.1

0.0

0.1

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.27p= 6.1e-005

p= 0.074

-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.2

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.99p= 0.073

p= 0.019

-0.4-0.20.00.20.4

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.65 p= 0.65p= 0.15

4. SMSCG effect


ALL DATA1920 - 2002



Port Chicago SC

Precipitation

Delta Outflow

Collinsville SC

Beldons Landing SC

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

INC

HE

S/Y

R

p= 0.34 p= 0.34p= 0.95

-15

-5

5

15C

MS

/YR

p= 0.31 p= 0.76p= 0.43

-0.2-0.1

0.0

0.1

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.27p= 6.1e-005

p= 0.074

-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.2

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.99p= 0.073

p= 0.019

-0.4-0.20.00.20.4

MM

HO

S/Y

R

p= 0.65 p= 0.65p= 0.15

4. SMSCG effect


ALL DATA1920 - 2002



0.00.2

0.40.6

p= 0.37

-55

15

25 p= 0.06

-0.3-0.2-0.10.0

p= 0.048

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

p= 0.06

-0.6-0.4-0.20.0

p= 0.08

POST SMSCG1988 - 2002

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2 ACollinsville

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5BBeldons Landing

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0-0.5

0.0

0.5


CPort Chicago

SC

(mm

hos/

cm)

1921-1987

Slope of SC Trend by Month:Pre- SMSCG Operation (1921-1987)

4. SMSCG effect

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2 ACollinsville

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5BBeldons Landing

-2.0-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.00.5

-2.0-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.00.5


CPort Chicago

SC

(m

mho

s/cm

)

1921-19871988-2002

Slope of SC Trend by Month:Pre (1921-1987) and Post (1988-2002) SMSCG Operation

4. SMSCG effect

Suisun Marsh SalinityControl Gate Effect:

• Works like hell.• Reduces Suisun Marsh salinity in the Fall

(east to west):– S64 6-8 mmhos/cm– Beldons 5-7– S42 4-5– S21 3-4– S35 1-2

4. SMSCG effect

5. Time-Scale Variability

• Decadal, inter-annual, seasonal,spring/neap, sub-tidal, tidal, turbulent.

• Relevant mitigation:– What time-scales and magnitudes of

variability are important to organisms?

Annual Data CV (s/x)

Pre-Project Post ProjectPrecipitation 0.57 0.75Outflow 0.27 0.37Collinsville 0.77 0.82Beldons Landing 0.34 0.45Pt. Chicago 0.25 0.35


Monthly Data CV (s/x)

Pre-Project Post ProjectPrecipitation 1.18 1.42Outflow 1.17 1.21Collinsville 1.17 1.59Beldons Landing 0.95 0.75Pt. Chicago 0.65 0.71


6. Other Salinity Trend Drivers

• Sea level rise ~2mm/year• Climate/Ocean conditions

– (ENSO 3-5 yr, PDO 20-30 yr)

• Coastal upwelling• Climate change and runoff to SF Estuary• Bathymetry: Suisun Bay is erosional since 1922

– Hydraulic mining debris– Reservoir sediment capture– Ship channel dredging– Dredging for levee building

Suisun Bay Bathymetry Change

• Eroded 106 cm since 1922 (Cappiella et al.)• > 100 million cubic meters• How does deepening Suisun Bay affect the

salinity regime? (ask Aaron Miller)


• We raised elevation of Suisun Bay by 0.75 meters.


• We raised elevation of Suisun Bay by 0.75 meters.

• Colors represent percentage change in salinity compared to today’s elevation.


Conclusions

Hydrology• Precipitation has increased slightly since 1920.

Variability is orders of magnitude larger thantrend.

• The seasonal distribution of outflow is changed:Lower April, May, June, higher, July, August,September.

• Long-term trend in outflow = -2.7cms/yr, ~22%reduction.

Conclusions (cont.)

Salinity• Salinity variability is greater in post project

period (coherent with precipitation)• Climate variability overwhelms water project

caused trends.• At Beldons: Up to 1988, salinity was trending

lower between August and December.• Pre-project mean = 6.0, s = 2.1• Post-project mean = 7.5, s = 3.4

Conclusions (cont.)

SMSCG• Reduces Beldons Landing salinity by 5-7

mmhos/cm.

• SMSCG reduces salinity more than salinity wouldhave increased without it.

Conclusions (cont.)

Biology• Salinity is less than ideal May alkali bulrush seed

germination salinity 95% of the time at Beldons.• Water projects have reduced summer/fall salinity

variability some native plants/fishes have usedto competitive advantage.

• Decrease in salinity variability from seasonaloutflow redistribution is probably real, but it’soverwhelmed by climate variability.

Thank You

• Callie Harrison• Victor Pacheco• Marc Vayssieres• Brad Tom• Aaron Miller• Kate Le• Steve Culberson

Manuscript Ideas

• Port Chicago LOESS shows increase from 9 to 12 SC, greater than Collinsville andBlanding. This shows the effect of bay scour.

Port Chicago

Beldons Landing

Collinsville


0 5 10 15 20 25

23

45

67

89

10

SEP 9 - NOV 12, 1989

-30-28 -27-26-25 -24-23-22-21-20-18 -17 -16-14-13-12

-6-5-3-2-1 0

1

2

4

5

6

89

10 1112131415

1718

192021222324 2526

2728

29

0 5 10 15 20 25

23

45

67

89

10

AUG 9 - OCT 6, 1994

-29-28-27-26

-20-18 -17-16-15 -13-12-11-1 02

34

5

68

91011

121314

1516

19 2021 2223

242526 2728

2930

0 5 10 15 20 25

23

45

67

89

10

AUG 26 - OCT 25, 1991

-24-23-22-21-20-18-17 -16-15-14-13

-11-10-9 -8-7-6 -5-4 -3-2-1 0

1

2

4 56

78910111213 1415

17 18 19202122

2425262728

2930

0 5 10 15 20 25

23

45

67

89

10

OCT 24 - DEC 12, 1994

-22 -21-20-19

-14-12

-11-10

-9-8 -7-6-5-4-3 -2-1 0

1

2

3

45

789 10 1112

13141516 17

1819

2022

23

24

25

2627

28

29

30

S49 Salinity Response to SMSCG Operation and Delta Outflow

Delta Outflow (TCFS)

TD

S (P

PT

)

Figure xx, Beldons Landing SC response to SMSCG operation and Delta outflow. Negative numbersindicate number of days prior to SMSCG operation, positive numbers indicate number of days since SMSCG operation. The blueline traces the first ten days of response after operation is initiated.

Beldons Landing Response to SMSCG Operation and Delta Outflow

4. SMSCG effect

TD

S (

PP

T)

Delta Outflow (TCFS)

long-term trends and variability of suisun marsh salinity...long-term trends collinsville sc...

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