long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Trout lakes
Aidin Jabbari
Department of Civil Engineering
Queen’s UniversityKingston (ON) Canada
![Page 2: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction
● Lake Trout
• A valuable natural resourcein both economic and ecological terms
• length: 30-80 cm, weight: 1-5 kg Ontario record: 28.6 kg
• Relatively rare: only 1% of Ontario lakes contain Lake Trout
• 20-25% of Lake Trout lakes are in Ontario
Lake Ontario, Lake Huron, Lake Superior and across the deep, cold lakes of the Canadian Shield(www.ontario.ca)
![Page 3: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Introduction
• Narrow physiological tolerances fortemperature and dissolved oxygen (DO)Temperature: 6-15°CDO: 9-12 mg/L
• Vulnerable to many stresses including climate warming:Increased solar radiation Thicker EpilimnionIncreased fish metabolism Decreased concentrations of DO
Effect of climate change on restriction of pelagic habitat availability for Lake Trout (Ficke et al., 2007)
![Page 4: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Introduction
• Significant weather changes in central Canada by 2100 (GCM):Winter: increase by 3-5°C Summer: increase by 6-9°CClimate changes lower water levels less hypolimnion volumes
severe hypoxia • Kling et al. (2003):
Higher air temperatures longer and stronger summer thermal stratification period increase the duration of DO depletion in thehypolimnion & decrease the vertical DO flux
(Wang et al., 2014)
![Page 5: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Project Overview
Theme 1:Understanding
the past
Theme 2:Modeling the present
Theme 3:Forecasting
the future
Develop and calibrate models on a common set of study lakes
Apply models to lakes of significant interest to supporting organizations
New toolset for lake and resource managers
• A 3-part study to: Analyze sediment cores to understand the past Develop empirical formulae to model the present Apply computational models to forecast the future
![Page 6: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Theme 3
● Computational modeling • A simple DO sub-model has been embedded in the 1D bulk mixed-layer
thermodynamic Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM). • This model is currently being incorporated into the Canadian Land Surface
Scheme (CLASS).• The model can simulate physics and biogeochemistry over timescales relevant
to climate change.• Calibrated and validated by hind-casting T and DO profiles from 2 Lake Trout
lakes:Harp Lake & Eagle Lake
![Page 7: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Harp Lake: model set-up
Maximum depth: 34 mSquare root of the surface are: 843 mExtinction coefficient: 0.5 1/mSimulations time: 1978-2008Optimum HOD: 0.03Grid spacing: 1 mTime steps: 10 min
![Page 8: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Harp Lake: Meteorology
![Page 9: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 10: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 11: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 12: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 13: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 14: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 15: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 16: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 17: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 18: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 19: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 20: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Harp Lake: Results
![Page 21: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Eagle Lake: model set-up
Maximum depth: 30 mSquare root of the surface are: 250 mExtinction coefficient: 0.3 1/mSimulations time: day 173-328, 2011Optimum HOD: 0.085Grid spacing: 1 mTime steps: 10 min
![Page 22: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Eagle Lake: Meteorology
![Page 23: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Eagle Lake: Results
![Page 24: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Eagle Lake: Results
![Page 25: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Eagle Lake: Results
![Page 26: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Eagle Lake: Results
![Page 27: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Eagle Lake: Results
![Page 28: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Summary and Future works
● Future works• Modification of HOD and bottom stress• Validating the model against DO reconstructions from the sediment cores• Predicting future DO concentrations in Canadian Lake Trout lakes under future
climate change scenarios.
● Summary• Temperature and DO for two Lake Trout lakes are validated.• The model can predict temperature and DO with RMS error <2 °C and
<4.5 mgL-1, respectively.
![Page 29: Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations ...post.queensu.ca/~pearl/laketrout/docs/presentations/Jabbari_2016IA… · temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) Temperature:](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042300/5ecb87a7059fb2046b2d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Thank you