long-term precipitation trends in colorado nolan doesken colorado state climatologist presented:...
TRANSCRIPT
Long-term Precipitation Trends in Colorado
Nolan Doesken
Colorado State Climatologist
Presented: Friday, December 12, 2008
Colorado Mean Annual Precipitation (1971-2000)
Of All Our Climate Observing Stations
Colorado Statewide Water Year (Oct-Sept) Precipitation
Colorado Statewide Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sept) from 1896-2008
5
10
15
20
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
)
Only a Few Have Excellent Long-Term Records
Best Long Term Precipitation Time Series
Fort Collins Water Year Precipitation with 30 year moving average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Fort Collins
Kassler Water Year Precipitation with 30 year moving average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Kassler
Byers water year precipitation with 9 and 30 year moving averages
0
5
10
15
20
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Byers
Grand Lake 1NW water year precipitation with 30 year moving average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
iati
on
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Grand Lake 1NW
Grand Lake 6SSW water year precipitation with 9 adn 30 year moving averages
0
5
10
15
20
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Grand Lake 6SSW
Hayden water year precipitation with 9 and 30 year moving averages
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Hayden
Montrose #2 water year precipitation with 30 year moving average
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Montrose #2
Cochetopa Creek water year precipitation with 30 year moving average
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Cochetopa Creek
Mesa Verde water year precipitation with 30 year average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Mesa Verde
Del Norte water year precipitation with 9 and 30 year moving averages
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Del Norte
Trinidad City water year precipitation with 30 year moving average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Trinidad City
Cheyenne Wells water year precipitation with 30 year moving average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Cheyenne Wells
Rocky Ford water year precipitation with 9 and 30 year moving averages
0
5
10
15
20
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Rocky Ford
Akron 4E water year precipitation with 9 and 30 year moving average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Water Year
30 year moving average
9 year moving average
Akron 4E
What is normal precipitation and how does it relate to the recent past?
Fort Collins 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 average
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Ave
rag
e P
reci
pit
atio
n (
in)
30 year Normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-08 Average
Fort Collins
Kassler 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 Average
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-08 Average
Kassler
Byers 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 averages
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 average
Byers
Grand Lake 1NW 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 average
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 average
Grand Lake 1NW
Grand Lake 6SSW 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 averages
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 average
Grand Lake 6SSW
Hayden 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 averages
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008
Hayden
Montrose #2 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 average
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 average
Montrose #2
Cochetopa Creek 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 average
Cochetopa Creek
Mesa Verde 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 average
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 averages
Mesa Verde
Del Norte 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 averages
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 average
Del Norte
Trinidad City 30 year normal precipitation vs. water year 2000-2008 average
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 Average
Trinidad City
Cheyenne Wells 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 average
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008 Average
Cheyenne Wells
Rocky Ford 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 averages
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
30 year normal (1971-2000)
WY 2000-2008
Rocky Ford
Akron 4E 30 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2000-2008 average
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
30 year normal (1971-2000)
Average WY 2000-2008
Akron 4E
Colorado Snotel Sites•Assessment of long term April 1st SWE provides information on long term winter precipitation trends.
Universtiy Camp, CO (Elevation 10,300') April 1 SWE (in)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
SW
E (
in)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
University Camp (10,300’)
Dry Lake, CO (Elevation 8,400') April 1 SWE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E (
in)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
Dry Lake (8,400’)
Independence Pass, CO (Elevation 10,600') April 1 SWE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
SW
E (
in)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
Independence Pass (10,600’)
Porphyry Creek, CO (Elevation 10,760') April 1 SWE (in)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
SW
E (
in)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
Porphyry Creek (10,760’)
Upper San Juan, CO (Elevation 10,200') April 1 SWE (in)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
SW
E (
in)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
Upper San Juan (10,200’)
What is the frequency of drought?
Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 3 month SPI
(1890 - August 2008)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
18
90
18
92
18
95
18
97
19
00
19
02
19
05
19
07
19
10
19
12
19
15
19
17
19
20
19
22
19
25
19
27
19
30
19
32
19
35
19
37
19
40
19
42
19
45
19
47
19
50
19
52
19
55
19
57
19
60
19
62
19
65
19
67
19
70
19
72
19
75
19
77
19
80
19
82
19
85
19
87
19
90
19
92
19
95
19
97
20
00
20
02
20
05
20
07
Year
Fra
cti
on
(in
per
ce
nt)
Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI
(1890 - August 2008)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890
1892
1895
1897
1900
1902
1905
1907
1910
1912
1915
1917
1920
1922
1925
1927
1930
1932
1935
1937
1940
1942
1945
1947
1950
1952
1955
1957
1960
1962
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1977
1980
1982
1985
1987
1990
1992
1995
1997
2000
2002
2005
2007
Year
Fra
ctio
n (
in p
erce
nt)
John Martin Dam May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Ev
apo
rati
on
(In
)
Tracking Evapotranspiration
Seasonal (May-Sept.) Alfalfa Reference ET
Tracking and understanding ET trends allows for more efficient water use planning
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Refe
renc
e ET
(in)
SW Colorado Seasonal ET (May-Sept)Cortez Dove Creek Towaoc Yellow Jacket Mean
Seasonal Reference ET Time Series
25303540455055606570
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Cum
ulati
ve E
T (in
)
Republican River Basin Seasonal Reference ET (May-Sept)Burlington N Burlington S Haxtun Idalia Kirk Wray Yuma 02 Mean
25303540455055606570
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Cum
ulati
ve E
T (in
)
Arkansas Valley Seasonal Reference ET (May-Sept)Avondale Fowler Holly 01 Hoehne Lamar 01 Lamar 02
Lamar 03 Las Animas CSU Rocky Ford Vineland Mean
Seasonal Reference ET Time Series
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Refe
renc
e ET
(in)
San Luis Valley Seasonal ET (May-Sept)Blanca Center 01 Center 02 San Luis Mean
25303540455055606570
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Refe
renc
e ET
(in)
Western Slope Seasonal ET (May-Sept)Delta Fruita Grand Junction Hotchkiss Olathe Mean
CoAgMet and NCWCD• CoAgMet’s results were compared to a similar
weather network in Northern Colorado• The Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District
(NCWCD) weather station network is a “gold standard” for ET comparison due to their high standards for siting, maintenance, and calibration
NCWCD versus CoAgMet: North Central Region
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Cum
ulati
ve ET
(in)
CoAgMet and NCWCD North Central Seasonal ET (May-Sept)Eaton Fort Collins East Gilcrest Johnsons Corner
Longmong South Ault Briggsdale Eastern Adams County
Fort Collins AERC Fort Collins ARDEC Fort Lupton Greeley
Lucerne Peckham Mean
NCWCD and CoAgMet: Lower South Platte Region
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Cum
ulati
ve E
T(in
)
CoAgMet and NCWCD Lower S Platte Seasonal ET (May-Sept)
Brush Crook Ovid Wiggins Sterling Fort Morgan Holyoke
Kersey Paoli Wiggins 01 Wiggins 02 Yuma 02 Mean
Coming Soon: Climate Trends Website
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