long-term issues for fiscal sustainability in emerging asia

7/27/2019 Long-term Issues for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia

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MGOL Y`rclki Qmper Xerles

B`ki&terf Lssues d`r DlshmbXustmlkmolblty lk Eferilki Mslm

Fmsmjlr` Cmwmlmkg Qeter N+ F`rimk

K`+ 78?Muiust ?1=8

Mslmk Geveb`pfekt Omkc Lkstltute


2/21

Wje Y`rclki Qmper serles ls m h`ktlkumtl`k `d tje d`rferby kmfeg Glshussl`k Qmper serles3 tjekufoerlki `d tje pmpers h`ktlkueg wltjùt lkterruptl`k `r hjmkie+ MGOLs w`rclki pmpersredbeht lkltlmb lgems `k m t`plh mkg mre p`steg `kblke d`r glshussl`k+ MGOL ekhùrmies remgers t`p`st tjelr h`ffekts `k tje fmlk pmie d`r emhj w`rclki pmper *ilvek lk tje hltmtl`k oeb`w,+

X`fe w`rclki pmpers fmy geveb`p lkt` `tjer d`rfs `d puoblhmtl`k+

Xuiiesteg hltmtl`k>

Cmwml" F+" mkg Q+N+ F`rimk+ ?1=8+ B`ki&terf Lssues d`r Dlshmb Xustmlkmolblty lk Eferilki Mslm+MGOL Y`rclki Qmper 78?+ W`cy`> Mslmk Geveb`pfekt Omkc Lkstltute+ Mvmlbmobe>jttp>www+mgol+`riw`rclki&pmper?1=81:=45:5:+lssues+dlshmb+sustmlkmolblty+eferilki+mslm

Qbemse h`ktmht tje mutj`rs d`r lkd`rfmtl`k moùt tjls pmper+

Efmlb> fcmwmlAmgol+`ri3 pf`rimkAmgol+`ri

Fmsmjlr` Cmwml ls Gemk `d tje Mslmk Geveb`pfekt Omkc Lkstltute *MGOL,+ Qeter N+F`rimk ls sekl`r h`ksubtmkt d`r resemrhj mt MGOL+Wjls ls m revlseg mkg upgmteg versl`k `d tje pmper presekteg mt tje MGOLNmpmk Flklstry`d Dlkmkhe *F@D, Q`blhy _esemrhj Lkstltute *Q_L, h`kderekhe `k B`ki&terf DlshmbXustmlkmolblty Lssues jebg lk W`cy` `k =9 Nmkumry ?1=8+

Wje vlews expresseg lk tjls pmper mre tje vlews `d tje mutj`r mkg g` k`t kehessmrlbyredbeht tje vlews `r p`blhles `d MGOL" tje MGO" lts O`mrg `d Glreht`rs" `r tje i`verkfektstjey represekt+ MGOL gès k`t iumrmktee tje mhhurmhy `d tje gmtm lkhbugeg lk tjls pmpermkg mhhepts k` resp`kslolblty d`r mky h`ksequekhes `d tjelr use+ Werflk`bìy useg fmyk`t kehessmrlby oe h`kslstekt wltj MGO `ddlhlmb terfs+

Mslmk Geveb`pfekt Omkc LkstltuteCmsuflimsecl Oulbglki :D8&?&5 Cmsuflimsecl" Hjly`gm&cuW`cy` =11&411:" Nmpmk

Web> #:=&8&85 #:=&8&85 www+mgol+`riE&fmlb> lkdÀmgol+`ri

?1=8 Mslmk Geveb`pfekt Omkc Lkstltute
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


3/21

MGOL Y`rclki Qmper 78? Cmwml mkg F`rimk

Mostrmht

Wje mdterfmtj `d tje ibòmb dlkmkhlmb hrlsls `d ?1191: ukgerblkeg tje lfp`rtmkhe `d fmlktmlklkidlshmb spmhe mkg dlshmb sustmlkmolblty+ Evek tjùij fmky Mslmk eh`k`fles lfpbefekteg dlshmbstlfubus p`blhles gurlki tje hrlsls perl`g" tjelr dlshmb h`kgltl`ks iekermbby lfpr`veg rmplgbytjeremdter" mkg tjelr `vermbb i`verkfekt geot p`sltl`ks" mslge dr`f tjmt `d Nmpmk" mppemr str`ki+

Wjls redbehts m kufoer `d supp`rtlve dmht`rs" lkhbuglki str`ki ukgerbylki ir`wtj" h`kservmtlvedlshmb fmkmiefekt" mkg dlkmkhlmb repressl`k tjmt ceep lkterest rmtes b`w+ K`ketjebess" tjere mrem kufoer `d rems`ks t` oebleve tjmt h`kgltl`ks lk eferilki Mslmk eh`k`fles wlbb k`t mbwmys oes` supp`rtlve+ Dlrst" eh`k`flh ir`wtj wlbb tekg t` sb`w ms hùktrles remhj jlijer lkh`fe bevebs+Xeh`kg" fmky eh`k`fles wlbb dmhe rmplg milki" wjlhj wlbb rmlse `bg&mie&rebmteg spekglkigrmfmtlhmbby" wjlbe tekglki t` reguhe eh`k`flh gykmflsf+ Wjlrg" dlkmkhlmb repressl`k ls blceby t`glflklsj ms dlkmkhlmb fmrcets geveb`p" fmclki geot fmkmiefekt f`re hjmbbekilki+ Wje dlrstònehtlve `d tjls pmper ls t` lgektldy b`ki&terf lssues `d dlshmb sustmlkmolblty rlsc d`r eferilki

Mslmk eh`k`flessuhj ms bmrie&shmbe suoslgles" lkdrmstruhture lkvestfekt requlrefekts" milkimkg s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k spekglki" h`ktlkiekt blmolbltles" dlkmkhlmb repressl`k" mkg tje exp`sure `dtje g`festlh omkclki seht`r t` s`verelik geot+ Wje seh`kg ònehtlve ls t` reh`ffekg p`blhlest` reguhe tjese rlscs t` sustmlkmolblty" lkhbuglki lfpr`vlki tje ombmkhe `d revekues mkg

expekgltures" lfpbefektlki f`re expblhlt dlshmb rubes mkg drmfew`rcs" mkg estmoblsjlki str`kierdlshmb survelbbmkhe mt tje kmtl`kmb mkg reil`kmb bevebs+

NEB Hbmssldlhmtl`k> J?" J5=" J57" J55" J4?" J48" N==


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H`ktekts

=+ Lktr`guhtl`k +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 8?+

Hurrekt Dlshmb H`kgltl`ks lk Mslm +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 7

?+= _evlew d _ehekt Experlekhe ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 7?+? Dlshmb Expekgltures" _evekues" mkg Geot Bevebs ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 4

8+ Dlshmb Expekglture Fmkmiefekt Lssues lk Eferilki Mslm ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


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8

=+ LKW_@GUHWL@K

Wje ibòmb dlkmkhlmb hrlsls `d ?1191< mkg lts mdterfmtj beg t` m sjmrp oulbgup `di`verkfekt geot lk fmky mgvmkheg eh`k`fles" lkhbuglki tje Uklteg Xtmtes *UX," tjeUklteg Clkig`f *UC," Nmpmk" Drmkhe" mkg tje s`&hmbbeg QLLIX hùktrles *Q`rtuimb"Lrebmkg" Ltmby" Ireehe" mkg Xpmlk,+ F`re`ver" tje h`folkmtl`k `d bmhc `d f`ketmry p`blhydbexlolblty mkg bmrie exp`sure `d g`festlh omkclki seht`rs t` i`verkfekt geot beg t` tjeeferiekhe `d h`folkeg s`verelik geot mkg omkclki hrlses lk tje eur` mrem" pmrtlhubmrbyQLLIX+ _eimrgbess `d wjetjer `r k`t tjese hùktrles ukgerwekt geot hrlses" tjey mbb dmhetje mrguùs b`ki&terf tmsc `d dlshmb h`ks`blgmtl`k lk `rger t` orlki tjelr i`verkfekt geotg`wk t` sustmlkmobe bevebs+

Lk h`ktrmst" f`st eferilki eh`k`fles" lkhbuglki Mslmk `kes" wemtjereg tje ibòmbdlkmkhlmb hrlsls surprlslkiby webb+ Mbtjùij fmky lfpbefekteg bmrie&shmbe dlshmb stlfubusprìrmfs" i`verkfekt geot bevebs refmlkeg rebmtlveby oeklik+ =

K`ketjebess" tjere mre m kufoer `d rems`ks t` oebleve tjmt h`kgltl`ks lk eferilki Mslmkeh`k`fles wlbb k`t mbwmys oe s` supp`rtlve+ Dlrst" remb ir`wtj rmtes wlbb tekg t` sb`w mstjese eh`k`fles mhjleve jlijer bevebs `d lkh`fe+ Xeh`kg" fmky Mslmk eh`k`fles wlbbdmhe rmplg milki lk h`flki gehmges" wjlhj wlbb rmlse peksl`k" jembtjhmre" mkg `tjer `bg&mie&rebmteg spekglki grmfmtlhmbby" wjlbe tekglki t` reguhe eh`k`flh gykmflsf+ Wjlrg"dlkmkhlmb repressl`k ls blceby t` glflklsj ms dlkmkhlmb fmrcets mre bloermblzeg mkg geveb`p"bemglki t` m kmrr`wlki imp oetweek eh`k`flh ir`wtj rmtes mkg o`kg ylebgs tjmt wlbb

fmce geot fmkmiefekt f`re hjmbbekilki+

Wjls oeklik resubt

mppemrs t` redbeht m kufoer `d p`sltlve dmht`rs" lkhbuglki mk mosekhe `d dlkmkhlmb hrlsestjmt requlreg omkc omlbùts" str`ki lkltlmb h`kgltl`ks lk terfs `d o`tj gedlhlts mkgi`verkfekt geot bevebs" mkg jlij ir`wtj rmtes `d ir`ss g`festlh pr`guht *IGQ, rebmtlvet` lkterest rmtes" pmrtby ms m resubt `d dlkmkhlmb repressl`k+

Wje dlrst ònehtlve `d tjls pmper ls t` lgektldy b`ki&terf lssues `d dlshmb sustmlkmolblty rlscd`r eferilki Mslmk eh`k`fles+ Wjese lssues lkhbuge> bmrie&shmbe suoslgles"lkdrmstruhture lkvestfekt requlrefekts" milki mkg s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k spekglki" h`ktlkiektblmolbltles" dlkmkhlmb repressl`k" mkg tje exp`sure `d tje g`festlh omkclki seht`r t`s`verelik geot+ Wje seh`kg ònehtlve ls t` reh`ffekg p`blhles t` reguhe tjese rlscs t`sustmlkmolblty" lkhbuglki> lfpr`vlki tje ombmkhe `d revekues mkg expekgltures3lfpbefektlki f`re expblhlt dlshmb rubes3 mkg estmoblsjlki str`kier dlshmb survelbbmkhe mttje reil`kmb beveb+

Xehtl`k ? `d tjls pmper revlews tje hurrekt dlshmb sltumtl`k lk Mslm" lkhbuglki tjeexperlekhes gurlki tje Mslmk dlkmkhlmb hrlsls `d =


6/21


7

?+ HU__EKW DLXHMB H@KGLWL@KX LK MXLM

?+= _evlew `d _ehekt Experlekhe

Mslmk dlkmkhlmb hrlsls mkg ib`omb dlkmkhlmb hrlsls experlekhes

Wje Mslmk dlkmkhlmb hrlsls `d =


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5

Dliure ?> Iekermb I`verkfekt Geot *% `d IGQ, lk Eferilki Mslm" =


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4

p`sltlve dmht`r supp`rtlki mppmrektby b`w geot bevebs ls reblmkhe `k ukdukgeg h`ktlkiektblmolbltles" wjlhj ls glshusseg durtjer lk sehtl`k 7+= oeb`w+

Dliure 8> _emb IGQ Ir`wtj _mtes mkg _emb Lkterest _mtes *%, lk Eferilki Mslm"

?1=?

XXùrhe> LFD Dlshmb F`klt`rgmtmomse" @htòer ?1=?+

?+? Dlshmb Expekgltures" _evekues" mkg Geot Bevebs

Wjls sehtl`k geshrloes tje h`fp`sltl`k `d expekgltures mkg revekues mkg tje dlshmbsustmlkmolblty lssues lk eferilki Mslm+

Dliure 7 sj`ws tje oremcg`wk `d hektrmb i`verkfekt expekgltures `d Mslmk eh`k`flesms perhektmie `d IGQ+ Nmpmk jms oy dmr tje jlijest sjmre `d IGQ `vermbb *8:%,"d`bb`weg oy Fmbmyslm mkg tje Q_H+ Wmlpel"Hjlkm3 mkg Xlkimp`re jmve tje b`west sjmres+X`fe b`w&lkh`fe eh`k`fles jmve b`w hmpltmb expekglture sjmres suhj ms lkvestfekt lklkdrmstruhture" lkhbuglki Lkglm" Lkg`keslm" mkg tje Qjlblpplkes+ Wjls ls blceby t` oe exertlkim restrmlklki lkdbuekhe `k tje ir`wtj p`tektlmb `d tj`se hùktrles+ Lt sjùbg oe m jlijprl`rlty t` sehure sùrhes `d dukglki d`r jlijer bevebs `d lkdrmstruhture lkvestfektspekglki lk tj`se hùktrles+

&=1

&:

&4

&7

&?

1

?

7

4

:

Qjlblpplkes

_epuoblh`dC`rem

Fmbmyslm

Xlkimp`re

Lkglm

J`kiC`ki"

Hjlkm

Lkg`keslm

Wjmlbmkg

Q_H

TletKmf

_emb eddehtlve lkterest rmte *r, _emb IGQ ir`wtj *i,

Lkterest rmteir`wtj gldderektlmb *ri,


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9

Dliure 7> H`fp`sltl`k `d Hektrmb I`verkfekt Expekgltures *% `d IGQ, lk Mslm"?1==

K`te> Nmpmks s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k expekgltures mre d`r iekermb i`verkfekt+ Gmtm d`r Wjmlbmkg mkg Nmpmk" ?1=13Xlkimp`re" ?11:3 mkg tje Qjlblpplkes" ?117+

Xùrhe> MGO Xtmtlstlhmb Gmtmomse Xystef+

X`hlmb pr`tehtl`k&rebmteg expekgltures tekg t` ir`w rmplgby wltj lkh`fe mkg p`pubmtl`k

milki+ Nmpmks mre oy dmr tje jlijest" fmclki up moùt ?7% `d IGQ" webb `ver jmbd `dt`tmb hektrmb i`verkfekt expekgltures+ Wje seh`kg jlijest sjmres mre jebg oy tje_epuoblh `d C`rem mkg J`ki C`ki" Hjlkm" out tjey mre fuhj b`wer`kby moùt 5% `dIGQ+ Xjmres d`r `tjer eh`k`fles rmkie oetweek ?% mkg 7%+ K`ketjebess" tje milkitrekg lk tj`se eh`k`fles p`lkts t` suostmktlmb lkhremses lk `bg&mie&rebmteg spekglki lkh`flki yemrs" wjlhj wlbb put m iremter strmlk `k i`verkfekt dlkmkhes+ Wjls lssue lsglshusseg mt iremter bekitj lk sehtl`k 8+8+

Ms expekgltures tekg t` rlse f`re tjmk pr`p`rtl`kmteby wltj lkh`fe" mgequmte revekuesùrhes fust oe iekermteg t` h`ver tjls+ J`wever" fmky b`w&lkh`fe hùktrles jmvekmrr`w revekue omses+ Wmobe = sj`ws tje oremcg`wk `d tmx revekues d`r fmn`r Mslmkeh`k`fles+ Wje sjmre `d lkglreht tmxes" l+e+" tmxes `k i``gs mkg servlhes" rmkies dr`f=4% t` 8


10/21


:

Wmobe => H`fp`sltl`k `d Wmx _evekue *% `d IGQ, lk Mslm" ?1=1

Hùktry

Wmxes `k

I``gsmkg

Xervlhes

Wmxes `kLkh`fe"

Qr`dlts" mkgHmpltmbImlks

Wmxes `kLkterkmtl`kmb

Wrmge@tjerWmxes

W`tmbWmx _e&vekue

Q_H 4+? ?+4 1+7 1+= =1+5J`ki C`ki" Hjlkm =+? 7+: 1+= ?+? =8+5Lkglm ?+8 7+4 =+? 1+1 Q_H" ?11 Qrìress lk Dlshmb H`ks`blgmtl`k *% `d IGQ, lk Eferilki Mslm

Oekhjfmrc> Mgnustfekt t` Xtmolblze Geot

HMQOkeegeg t`

stmolblze geot

HMQOhjmkie

?11 Wje HMQO keegeg t` stmolblze geot ls tje prlfmry ombmkhe requlreg lk ?1?1 t` mbb`w tje geot&t`&IGQ rmtl`t` returk t` ?1== bevebs oy ?181+

Xùrhe> LFD Dlshmb F`klt`r" @htòer ?1=?+

?Wjere mre m kufoer `d gldderekt mppr`mhjes t` mkmbyzlki dlshmb sustmlkmolblty" wjlhj mre oey`kg tje sh`pe

`d tjls pmper+ Lk m f`re extekslve mkmbysls" Mgmfs" Derrmrlkl" mkg Qmrc *?1=1, dùkg tjmt eferilki Mslmk

eh`k`fles iekermbby fmlktmlkeg dlshmb sustmlkmolblty lk tje mdterfmtj `d tje ibòmb dlkmkhlmb hrlsls+ Xee mbsÒurkslge *?115, mkg Derrmrlkl" Njm" mkg _mfmymkgl *?1=?, d`r m iekermb glshussl`k+


11/21


gmtm+uk+`riGmtm+mspx0q6gepekgekhy#rmtl`$g6Q`pGlv$d6vmrlmobeLG%8m77 mkgH`ukhlb d`r Eh`k`flh Qbmkklki mkg Geveb`pfekt *Wmlpel"Hjlkm," mvmlbmobe mt>jttp>www+hepg+i`v+twekh`ktektf=+mspx0sK`6111=759" mhhesseg ?: Gehefoer ?1=?+

1

=1

?1

81

71

51

41

91

=


14/21


=?

Wje milki pr`hess bmrieby trmhcs tje prìress `d ir`wtj `d per hmpltm lkh`fe+ Wjls lslfp`rtmkt" oehmuse o`tj tje beveb `d s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k expekgltures ms m rmtl` `d IGQ mkglts h`vermie tekg t` lkhremse wltj per hmpltm lkh`fe+ Gmtm imtjereg oy MGO *?1=8,

sj`w tjmt s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k spekglki lk b`w t` flggbe lkh`fe hùktrlesexhbuglki tj`selk Hektrmb mkg Yest Mslmbles oetweek =% mkg 5% `d IGQ" out tjmt tje beveb rlses `kheper hmpltm lkh`fe exheegs '=5"111 *Dliure 4,+ 5

Dliure 4> X`hlmb Qr`tehtl`k Expekgltures *% `d IGQ, mkg Qer Hmpltm IGQ *lkk`flkmb UX g`bbmrs, lk Mslm" ?11 MGO *?1=8,+

8+7 Q`blhy _eh`ffekgmtl`ks

Omseg `k tje prevlùs mkmbysls" we hmk lgektldy severmb mrems `d geot sustmlkmolblty rlscmf`ki Mslmk eh`k`fles+ @ke irùp `d eh`k`fles jms bmrie suoslgles `d moùt 8% `rf`re `d IGQ+ Lkglm" Lkg`keslm" Fmbmyslm" mkg tje Qjlblpplkes dmhe tje hjmbbekie `dh`ktmlklki suoslgles+ M seh`kg irùp `d eh`k`fles dmhes rlslki s`hlmb pr`tehtl`kexpekgltures gue t` rmplg milki `d tjelr p`pubmtl`ks+ Wje dùr Mslmk kewby lkgustrlmblzegeh`k`fles *KLEs,J`ki C`ki" Hjlkm3 tje _epuoblh `d C`rem3 Xlkimp`re3 mkgWmlpel"Hjlkmdmhe tje f`st lffeglmte rlsc" wjlbe tje Q_H mkg Wjmlbmkg mre kext lk blked`r suhj rlscs+ M tjlrg irùp `d hùktrles fmlktmlks rebmtlveby jlij geirees `d dlkmkhlmb

5Wje d`rfer X`vlet Ukl`k repuoblhs lk Hektrmb mkg Yest Mslmsuhj ms Uzoeclstmk" Cyriyz _epuoblh"

Ie`rilm" mkg Mzeromlnmktekg t` jmve jlij bevebs `d s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k expekgltures ms m sjmre `d IGQ3s` gès F`ki`blm+

1

5

=1

=5

?1

1 5"111 =1"111 =5"111 ?1"111 ?5"111 81"111 85"111 71"111

*% `d IGQ,

NQK

C@_

XLK

LKG

FMBWJM

TKFQ_H


15/21


=8

repressl`k" lkhbuglki tje Q_H" Lkglm" Lkg`keslm" Wjmlbmkg" mkg Tlet Kmf+ M dùrtj irùp`d hùktrles jms b`w bevebs `d lkdrmstruhture lkvestfekt" wjlhj g` k`t oy tjefsebvesrepresekt m kemr&terf rlsc t` dlshmb sustmlkmolblty" out wùbg requlre iremter revekues t`

dukg jlijer lkvestfekt" lkhbuglki Hmfo`glm" Lkglm" mkg Lkg`keslm+Eh`k`fles wltj jlij bevebs `d suoslgles sjùbg pjmse ùt suhj suoslgles mkg repbmhetjef wltj tmrieteg lkh`fe supp`rt prìrmfs+ Ms k`teg mo`ve" uklversmb suoslgles mreiekermbby m very lkeddlhlekt wmy t` remhj tje f`st vubkermobe irùps+ Eh`k`fles wltj b`wbevebs `d lkdrmstruhture lkvestfekt sjùbg tmce steps t` lfpr`ve tje ekvlr`kfekt d`r QQQmkg reguhe tjelr reblmkhe `k h`ktlkiekt blmolbltles" e+i+" b`ss&sjmrlki mrrmkiefekts+

Eh`k`fles dmhlki sjmrp lkhremses lk milki mkg s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k expekgltures keeg t`tmce m kufoer `d steps" lkhbuglki>

Lktr`guhlki òblimt`ry prefluf pmyfekts `k peksl`k mkg jembtj lksurmkhe mkglkhremslki preflufs3

Lfpbefektlki femks testlki d`r peksl`k mkg jembtjhmre oekedlts3 Wmxlki oekedlts *ld tjls ls k`t g`ke mbremgy,3

Xjldtlki dr`f gedlkeg oekedlt pbmks t` gedlkeg h`ktrloutl`k pbmks d`r peksl`ksystefs3

Huttlki peksl`k oekedlts" oy reguhlki tje repbmhefekt rmtl` mkg rmlslki tjeretlrefekt mie3 mkg

H`ktmlklki jembtj mkg feglhmb h`sts oy requlrlki tje oekedlhlmrles t` pmy pmrt `dh`sts+

7+ DLXHMB MKG GEOW FMKMIEFEKW HJMBBEKIEX LKEFE_ILKI MXLM

Wjls sehtl`k revlews s`fe `d tje b`kier&terf hjmbbekies dmhlki dlshmb mkg geotfmkmiefekt lk Mslmk eh`k`fles" lkhbuglki gemblki wltj h`ktlkiekt blmolbltles" ekglkidlkmkhlmb repressl`k" mkg lfpbefektlki dlshmb fmkmiefekt rubes+

7+= H`ktlkiekt Blmolbltles

Ms k`teg mo`ve" eferilki Mslmk eh`k`fles iekermbby jmve h`fd`rtmoby b`w rmtl`s `di`verkfekt geot t` IGQ" out `ke rems`k d`r tjls ls tjelr reblmkhe `k ukdukgeg h`ktlkiekt

blmolbltles+ Wje Q_H ls m k`tmobe exmfpbe+ Wmobe 4 sj`ws tjmt mbtjùij t`tmb i`verkfektgeot" lkhbuglki tjmt `d tje hektrmb i`verkfekt" b`hmb i`verkfekt mkg tje Flklstry `d_mlbwmys" mfùkts t` `kby 79% `d IGQ" vmrlùs h`ktlkiekt blmolbltles rmlse tje p`tektlmbt`tmb t` webb `ver twlhe tjmt" `r ==8% `d IGQ+ X`fe `d tje bmriest p`tektlmb blmolbltleslkhbuge tj`se `d stmte&`wkeg h`fferhlmb omkcs" stmte&`wkeg p`blhy omkc o`kgs"blmolbltles `d tje Qe`pbes Omkc `d Hjlkm" mkg geot `d b`hmb lkvestfekt h`fpmkles tjmt mreresp`kslobe d`r lkvestfekt mhtlvlty oy b`hmb i`verkfekts+ Wje tmobe gès k`t lkhbugeukdukgeg peksl`k blmolbltles `d tje i`verkfekt" slkhe lts slze ls glddlhubt t` estlfmte" ms ltgepekgs `k fmky duture geveb`pfekts *Jefflki ?1=?,+


16/21


=7

Wmobe 4> Estlfmte `d Q_H H`ktlkiekt Blmolbltles *% `d IGQ," ?11 Xjmre `d I`verkfekt O`kgs jebg oy Lkvest`r lk Mslm *%," ?1=?

Hùktry Omkcs

@tjerG`festlhDlkmkhlmbLkstltu&tl`ks

I`verk&fekt

HektrmbOmkcs

D`relikJ`bglkis @tjers

Q_H 99+1 =1+5 1+1 1+1 && =8+8

Lkg`keslm 8 jttp>mslmko`kgs`kblke+mgo+`rireil`kmb+pjp" mhhesseg =5 Nmkumry?1=8+

7+8 Keeg d`r Ekjmkheg Dlshmb Fmkmiefekt lk Eferilki Mslm

Wje rlsc dmht`rs glshusseg mo`ve mbb suiiest tjmt" ms tjelr lkh`fes rlse" Mslmkeh`k`fles wlbb keeg t` put iremter reblmkhe `k dlshmb glshlpblke" supp`rteg oy dlshmb rubes"t` fmlktmlk dlshmb sustmlkmolblty+4

Estmoblsjfekt `d dlshmb rubes

H``rglkmteg" webb&gedlkeg" mkg glstlkht r`bes sjùbg oeset d`r hektrmb mkg b`hmb i`verkfekts" stmte&`wkeg h`fferhlmb omkcs" mkg stmte&`wkegekterprlses+ Wjls lkhbuges hbemr rubes d`r dukglki `d lkdrmstruhture pr`nehts mkg mv`lglkitje use `d h`fferhlmb omkcs d`r dlshmb p`blhy purp`ses+

M kufoer `d Mslmk eh`k`fles jmve estmoblsjeg dlshmb rubes ms m t``b t` fmlktmlk dlshmbglshlpblke+ Wje kmture `d tjese rubes ls suffmrlzeg lk Wmobe :+ Lt ls k`t mbwmys emsy d`rhùktrles t` d`bb`w tjelr rubes" j`wever+ @d tje dùr eh`k`fles lk Wmobe :" `kby J`kiC`ki" Hjlkm jms iekermbby oeek suhhessdub lk ceeplki t` tje rubes" redbehtlki ltsiekermbby str`ki dlshmb h`kgltl`ks mkg b`w bevebs `d expekgltures+

4Mgmfs" Derrmrlkl" mkg Qmrc *?1=1, mbs` mriue tjmt Mslmk eh`k`fles sjùbg mg`pt str`ki dlshmb p`blhy

drmfew`rcs" mkg reslst" t` tje extekt p`sslobe" tje tefptmtl`k t` sjldt t`wmrg m f`re mhtlvlst pjlb`s`pjy d`rdlshmb p`blhy lktervektl`ks tjmk prevlùsby+


18/21


=4

Wmobe :> Ebefekts `d Dlshmb _ubes lk Mslm

Eh`k`fyExpekgl&ture _ube

_evekue_ube

OugietOmbmkhe

_ube

Geot_ube

Cey Ebefekts `d Dlshmb _ubes

J`ki C`ki"Hjlkm

\es Wje ougiet sjùbg mbwmys glspbmy mk`permtlki surpbus" l+e+" mk exhess rehurrektrevekue `ver rehurrekt expekglture+

Lkglm \es. @rlilkmbby tje tmriet wms t` reguhe tje dlshmbgedlhlt t` 8% `d IGQ oy ?11:+ Wje eshmpehbmuse lk tje dlshmb rube bmw *D_OFM, mbb`wstje i`verkfekt k`t t` h`fpby wltj tje tmrietslk exheptl`kmb hlrhufstmkhes /ms tje hektrmbi`verkfekt fmy spehldy+/

Lkg`keslm \es \es G_ *slkhe ?117,> W`tmb hektrmb mkg b`hmbi`verkfekt geot sjùbg k`t exheeg 41% `dIGQ+ OO_> Wje h`ks`blgmteg kmtl`kmb mkgb`hmb i`verkfekt ougiet gedlhlt ls blflteg t`

8% `d IGQ lk mky ilvek yemr+Nmpmk \es \es E_> Wje Dlshmb Fmkmiefekt Xtrmteiy lkeddeht slkhe ?? Nuke ?1=1" lktr`guheg mFegluf&terf Dlshmb Drmfew`rc" lkhbuglki mk@vermbb Expekglture Blflt *tje mfùkt `d tjeIekermb Mhhùkt Expekglture" exhbuglki geotrepmyfekt mkg lkterest pmyfekt" sjùbg k`texheeg tjmt `d tje prevlùs dlshmb yemr,+ OO_>Wje Dlshmb Fmkmiefekt Xtrmteiy lktr`guheglk ?1=1 *wltj eddeht `d ?1==, m pmy&ms&yù i`rube" wjlhj lfpbles tjmt mky femsure tjmtlkv`bves lkhremses lk expekglture `rgehremses lk revekue keeg t` oeh`fpeksmteg oy perfmkekt reguhtl`ks lkexpekgltures `r perfmkekt revekue&rmlslki

femsures+G_ 6 geot rube3 OO_ 6 ougiet ombmkhe rube3 E_ 6 expekglture rube+

K`te> .Lfpbefekteg oy Lkglmk I`verkfekt uktlb ?11:+

Xùrhe> Ouglkm" Clkgm" Xhjmehjter" mkg Yeoer *?1=?,+

Mk lfp`rtmkt mspeht `d dlshmb fmkmiefekt ls tje h``rglkmtl`k `d o`rr`wlki oetweekkmtl`kmb mkg suokmtl`kmb bevebs wltjlk mk `vermbb drmfew`rc+ Wjls ls pmrtlhubmrby rebevmktd`r lkdrmstruhture pr`nehts" ms ls glshusseg lk Blu mkg Qmgrebbl *?1=?," d`r exmfpbe+

Geot fmkmiefekt `ddlhe

Lkg`keslm mkg Wjmlbmkg jmve mbs` estmoblsjeg geot fmkmiefekt `ddlhes t` lkhremse tjeeddlhlekhy `d tjelr dukg rmlslki mhtlvltles+ Wje ònehtlves `d tjese `ddlhes mre suffmrlzeg

lk Wmobe


19/21


=9

Wmobe _`be `d Geot Fmkmiefekt @ddlhes lk Eferilki Mslm

Hùktry @onehtlves

Lkg`keslm

Fmkmie i`verkfekt geot p`rtd`bl` lk mk eddehtlve" trmkspmrekt mkgmhhùktmobe fmkker H`ktr`b geot lssumkhe mkg pr`hurefekt oy fmlktmlklki m o`rr`wlki hmpmhlty

tjmt supp`rts dlshmb sustmlkmolblty

Estmoblsj geveb`pfekt dlkmkhlki lkgepekgekhe oy prl`rltlzlki g`festlhdlkmkhlmb sùrhes mkg geveb`plki mk eddlhlekt mkg stmobe g`festlh fmrcet

Qr`f`te lkterkmtl`kmb h``permtl`k lk òtmlklki mbterkmtlve dlkmkhlmb sùrhes mswebb ms supp`rtlki reil`kmb dlkmkhlmb fmrcet stmolblty

Wjmlbmkg Fmkmie puoblh geot t` mhjleve b`w h`sts suoneht t` mhheptmobe rlscs Geveb`p tje g`festlh o`kg fmrcet t` oe `ke `d tje tjree fmlk plbbmrs `d tje

dlkmkhlmb fmrcet

Evmbumte mkg fòlblze demslobe dukgs t` dlkmkhe i`verkfekts lkdrmstruhturepr`guhts F`gerklze tehjk`bìy t` supp`rt tje Quoblh Geot Fmkmiefekt @ddlhes

`permtl`ksXùrhes> Flklstry d Dlkmkhe d tje _epuoblh d Lkg`keslm+ Wje presektmtl`k d Fr+ Ylgnmkmrc`"Glreht`r" Glreht`rmte Iekermb d Geot Fmkmiefekt k :tj UKHWMG Geot Fmkmiefekt H`kderekheIekevm" =7=4 K`vefoer ?1== mkg Quoblh Geot Fmkmiefekt @ddlhe d Wjmlbmkg" mvmlbmobe mt>jttp>www+pgf`+i`+tjekmoùt+pjp0f6moùt+

Wmobe =1> Dlshmb mkg @tjer Fmhrèh`k`flh Lkglhmt`rs d`r Mslm" ?1==

IekermbI`verkfektIr`ss Geot

Iekermb

I`verkfektDlshmbOmbmkhe

HQLLkdbmtl`k_mte

Lkterest _mte

`k WlfeGep`slts"=? f`ktjs

Bekglki_mte

Eh`k`fy % `d IGQ % `d IGQ % % %Nmpmk ??


20/21


=:

5+ H@KHBUXL@KX

Dlshmb sustmlkmolblty h`kgltl`ks lk Mslm exhbuglki Nmpmk mre iekermbby oeklikmf`ki

fmn`r eh`k`fles" `kby Lkglm jms m i`verkfekt geot&t`&IGQ rmtl` mo`ve 41%+ J`wever"duture geveb`pfekts fmy ukgerflke tjls r`sy plhture d`r m kufoer `d rems`ks+ Dlrst"s`fe hùktrles" k`tmoby Lkg`keslm" Lkglm" Fmbmyslm" mkg tje Qjlblpplkes" jmve jlijsuoslgy bevebs d`r d``g mkg ekeriy tjmt h`ktrloute suostmktlmbby t` dlshmb gedlhlts+ Xeh`kg"s`fe eh`k`fles" k`tmoby tje Mslmk kewby lkgustrlmblzeg eh`k`fles *KLEs, mkg*s`fewjmt bmter, tje Q_H mkg Wjmlbmkg" jmve rmplgby milki p`pubmtl`ks mkg wlbb blcebydmhe rlslki s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k spekglkipmrtlhubmrby `bg&mie&rebmteg spekglki suhj mspeksl`ks mkg jembtjhmre oekedltslk tje duture tjmt hmk tjremtek dlshmb sustmlkmolblty+Wjlrg" s`fe eh`k`fles" lkhbuglki Lkglm" Lkg`keslm" mkg tje Qjlblpplkes" jmve lkmgequmtebevebs `d lkdrmstruhture lkvestfekt" wjlhj wlbb requlre iremter spekglki lk tje duture+X`fe eh`k`fles" lkhbuglki tje Q_H" jmve bmrie h`ktlkiekt blmolbltles wjlhj hùbgtrmksbmte lkt` duture bmrie lkhremses lk i`verkfekt geot+ X`fe eh`k`fles" lkhbuglki tje

Q_H" Lkglm" Lkg`keslm" Wjmlbmkg" mkg Tlet Kmf" jmve jlij bevebs `d dlkmkhlmb repressl`k"wjlhj jms h`ktrlouteg t` reguhlki i`verkfekt geot ourgeks+ Out ms dlkmkhlmb fmrcetsmre bloermblzeg" durtjer geveb`p" mkg oeh`fe f`re `pek" suhj p`blhles fmy k`t oesustmlkmobe lk tje duture+ Dlkmbby" s`fe eh`k`fles" f`st pr`flkektby tje Q_H" jmve veryjlij omkc j`bglkis `d i`verkfekt geot" wjlhj lkhremses tje rlsc `d m s`verelik geot mkgomkclki hrlsls+

Wjese rlscs t` fegluf&terf dlshmb sustmlkmolblty hmk oe reguheg oy tlfeby mg`ptl`k `d mkufoer `d p`blhy femsures+ H`stby suoslgles sjùbg oe repbmheg wltj tmrieteg" glrehtlkh`fe trmksder prìrmfs+ Lk resp`kse t` pressures dr`f p`pubmtl`k milki" eh`k`fleskeeg t` h`ktmlk s`hlmb pr`tehtl`k prìrmf h`sts tjrùij ekd`rhefekt `d preflufpmyfekt òblimtl`ks mkg lkhremses lk suhj preflufs t` pr`vlge mgequmte dukglki+

Lkmgequmte lkdrmstruhture lkvestfekt hmk oe o`bstereg oy wlgeklki hjmkkebs `d prlvmteseht`r dukglki d`r lkdrmstruhture lkvestfekt" lkhbuglki ekhùrmiefekt `d QQQ dlkmkhlki"tjùij i`verkfekts keeg t` h`ktlkue t` fmce edd`rts t` expmkg dlshmb spmhe oy huttlkiukpr`guhtlve spekglki mkg rmlslki revekues+ I`verkfekts sjùbg fmkmie h`ktlkiektblmolbltles lk m f`re trmkspmrekt fmkker wjlbe eblflkmtlki tje use `d tje h`fferhlmbomkclki seht`r d`r dlshmb p`blhy lfpbefektmtl`k+

M kufoer `d p`blhles hmk oe mg`pteg t` lfpr`ve fmkmiefekt `d expekgltures"revekues" mkg i`verkfekt geot+ I`verkfekts sjùbg estmoblsj rmtl`kmb drmfew`rcs d`rmbb`hmtlki expekgltures" mlf t` mhjleve f`re ombmkheg sùrhes `d glreht mkg lkglrehtrevekue" strekitjek tmx h`bbehtl`k" mkg fmkmie i`verkfekt geot lk m prugekt wmy+Oey`kg tjls" i`verkfekts fmy mg`pt dlshmb rubes mkg drmfew`rcs mlfeg mt expekglture"

revekue" `r gedlhlt bevebs" mkg estmoblsj m geot fmkmiefekt `ddlhe+ Dlkmbby" strekitjeklki`d dlshmb survelbbmkhe oy reil`kmb o`gles suhj ms MF_@ hmk pr`vlge mggltl`kmb pressured`r sustmlkmobe dlshmb p`blhles+


21/21


=Y`rbg Omkc+

Derrmrlkl" O+" _+ Njm" mkg M+ _mfmymkgl" egs+ ?1=?+ Quoblh Geot Xustmlkmolblty lkGeveb`plki Mslm+ B`kg`k mkg Kew \`rc" K\> _ùtbegie+

Jefflki" _+ ?1=?+ Quoblh Geot Xustmlkmolblty mkg Jlggek Blmolbltles lk tje Qe`pbes_epuoblh `d Hjlkm+ Lk> Quoblh Geot Xustmlkmolblty lk Geveb`plki Mslm" eglteg oy O+Derrmrlkl" _+ Njm" mkg M+ _mfmymkgl+ B`kg`k mkg Kew \`rc" K\> _ùtbegie+

LFD+ ?1=1+ Fmhr`&dlshmb Lfpblhmtl`ks `d Jembtj Hmre _ed`rf lk Mgvmkheg mkg EferilkiEh`k`fles+ Dlshmb Mddmlrs Gepmrtfekt+ Ymsjlkit`k" GH> Lkterkmtl`kmb F`ketmryDukg+

PPPPPP+ ?1==+ Wje Hjmbbekie `d Quoblh Qeksl`k _ed`rf lk Mgvmkheg mkg EferilkiEh`k`fles+ Dlshmb Mddmlrs Gepmrtfekt+ Ymsjlkit`k" GH> Lkterkmtl`kmb F`ketmryDukg+

PPPPPP+ ?1=?+ Dlshmb Xtmolblty F`klt`r+ Ymsjlkit`k" GH> Lkterkmtl`kmb F`ketmry Dukg+@htòer+

PPPPPP+ ?1=8+ Qe`pbes _epuoblh `d Hjlkm ?1=8 Mrtlhbe LT H`ksubtmtl`k+ Ymsjlkit`k"GH> Lkterkmtl`kmb F`ketmry Dukg+

Njm" X+" Q+ ]ulslki" mkg X+ Hmflkiue+ ?11 Mslmk Geveb`pfekt Omkc+

Blu" B+" mkg N+ Qrmgebbl+ ?1=?+ Dlkmkhlki Lkdrmstruhture mkg F`klt`rlki Dlshmb _lscs mt tjeXuokmtl`kmb Beveb+ Y`rbg Omkc Q`blhy _esemrhj Y`rclki Qmper414

long-term issues for fiscal sustainability in emerging asia

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