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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 1 McIntire Investment Institute At the University of Virginia Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011

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Page 1: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 1

McIntire Investment Institute At the University of Virginia

Long Pitch Renren Inc.

(NYSE: RENN)

Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011

Page 2: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 2

Business Overview

Risk Analysis

Stock Summary

Market Misperceptions

Thesis Points

VAR

Agenda

Page 3: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 3

Business Overview

Page 4: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 4

Business Overview

Very Similar to Facebook…

Better Understanding

of

“RenRen”

Page 5: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 5

Stock Summary

Share Price: $5.17 Market Cap: $2.04B P/E (ttm): N/A EPS: -0.85

52-Week Range : $4.50 -$24.00 Total Cash (mrq):1.23B Current Ratio (mrq):13.45 Total Debt: N/A

Page 6: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 6

•  Strong Growth Potential

•  Large Market Share

•  Product Diversity

Thesis Points

Page 7: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 7

•  Strong Second Quarter Performance Net income turned positive in 2nd Quarter Share Buyback Program of $150m Long-term Investment Initiated in 2nd Quarter

•  Sustainable Growth Dominate the market of Social-Networking websites in China Increasing types of IVAS (Internet Valued-Added Service) Revenue from Online-Advertising Doubled

Thesis 1:Strong Growth Potential

Page 8: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 8

China’s Online Ad Boom to support Growth

Numbers of Chinese Internet Users (million)

Stable Growth on Online-Advertising Demand

Stable Revenue Growth

Page 9: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 9

Thesis 2:Large Market Share

•  Ranked the Largest National “Real Name” Social Network

•  Brand Loyalty •  Large and Expanding Users Group:

•  124.2 million activated users •  Majority users: College students, young urban

professions etc. •  Age: 16-35 years old

Page 10: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 10

Thesis 2:Large Market Share

Trend of Expanding to Different Users Groups

Page 11: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 11

Thesis 2:Large Market Share

Page 12: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 12

Thesis 3:Product Diversity—Multi-Platform

Page 13: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 13

Thesis 3:Product Diversity—Access Everywhere

Page 14: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 14

Misperception

Chinese Facebook?

Page 15: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 15

VAR

•  Survey to U.Va Chinese Students who both use Renren and Facebook

Page 16: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 16

VAR

Response: Current Preference: 91.7% of them responded they prefer RenRen.com

Subjective Reasons: 87.5% of them Most of my friends use it. 50.0% of them referred “Language preference”

Question1: Which one do you prefer?

But…

Page 17: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 17

VAR

Objective Reason: the government has blocked Facebook in Mainland China.

Question2: If the block of Facebook.com is eliminated on mainland China, which one will you prefer in the future?

Response: Majority users(63.90%) still consider Renren.com

Page 18: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 18

Risk

•  Exit of Advertising Sponsor

•  Investors’ Negligence •  Various Competitors

•  Information Inconsistency

Page 19: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 19

Recommendation

Recommend MII to Initiate an initial position of 2% on RENN

Page 20: Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) - collab.its.virginia.edu · Long Pitch Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011 . 2 M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t

M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 20

Questions?