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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 1
McIntire Investment Institute At the University of Virginia
Long Pitch Renren Inc.
(NYSE: RENN)
Qidong Guan| 10 November 2011
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 2
Business Overview
Risk Analysis
Stock Summary
Market Misperceptions
Thesis Points
VAR
Agenda
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 3
Business Overview
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 4
Business Overview
Very Similar to Facebook…
Better Understanding
of
“RenRen”
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 5
Stock Summary
Share Price: $5.17 Market Cap: $2.04B P/E (ttm): N/A EPS: -0.85
52-Week Range : $4.50 -$24.00 Total Cash (mrq):1.23B Current Ratio (mrq):13.45 Total Debt: N/A
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 6
• Strong Growth Potential
• Large Market Share
• Product Diversity
Thesis Points
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 7
• Strong Second Quarter Performance Net income turned positive in 2nd Quarter Share Buyback Program of $150m Long-term Investment Initiated in 2nd Quarter
• Sustainable Growth Dominate the market of Social-Networking websites in China Increasing types of IVAS (Internet Valued-Added Service) Revenue from Online-Advertising Doubled
Thesis 1:Strong Growth Potential
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 8
China’s Online Ad Boom to support Growth
Numbers of Chinese Internet Users (million)
Stable Growth on Online-Advertising Demand
Stable Revenue Growth
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 9
Thesis 2:Large Market Share
• Ranked the Largest National “Real Name” Social Network
• Brand Loyalty • Large and Expanding Users Group:
• 124.2 million activated users • Majority users: College students, young urban
professions etc. • Age: 16-35 years old
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 10
Thesis 2:Large Market Share
Trend of Expanding to Different Users Groups
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 11
Thesis 2:Large Market Share
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 12
Thesis 3:Product Diversity—Multi-Platform
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 13
Thesis 3:Product Diversity—Access Everywhere
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 14
Misperception
Chinese Facebook?
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 15
VAR
• Survey to U.Va Chinese Students who both use Renren and Facebook
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VAR
Response: Current Preference: 91.7% of them responded they prefer RenRen.com
Subjective Reasons: 87.5% of them Most of my friends use it. 50.0% of them referred “Language preference”
Question1: Which one do you prefer?
But…
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 17
VAR
Objective Reason: the government has blocked Facebook in Mainland China.
Question2: If the block of Facebook.com is eliminated on mainland China, which one will you prefer in the future?
Response: Majority users(63.90%) still consider Renren.com
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 18
Risk
• Exit of Advertising Sponsor
• Investors’ Negligence • Various Competitors
• Information Inconsistency
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 19
Recommendation
Recommend MII to Initiate an initial position of 2% on RENN
M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e 20
Questions?