Local Manufacturing Potential - Public Documents CSP -100% RENEWABLE ELECTRIC HYBRIDIZATION CSP+PV CSP+WIND THERMAL HYBRIDIZATION CSP+BIOMASS CSP+GEOTHERMAL 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 5 TES PV CSP Steam Turbine

Download Local Manufacturing Potential - Public Documents   CSP -100% RENEWABLE ELECTRIC HYBRIDIZATION CSP+PV CSP+WIND THERMAL HYBRIDIZATION CSP+BIOMASS CSP+GEOTHERMAL 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 5 TES PV CSP Steam Turbine

Post on 11-Mar-2018

223 views

Category:

Documents

8 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • CONCENTRATED SOLARPOWER 2016

    Market Survey and Trends

    New CSP Market Segments Assessment

    Local Manufacturing Potential

  • 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 2

    Market Survey and Trends

  • LIFE NEEDS ENERGY

    jservert@sta-solar.com

    Sun energy creates: wind, waves,

    biomass, oil, coal, hydro.

    GravityNuclearSun

    Geothermal

    Biomass

    Wind

    Oil, Gas, Coal

    Waves

    Sun

    hydro Reliable, Clean, Safe, Secure,

    Affordable

    http://media.lookatvietnam.com/2009/12/images1902884_crude_oil.jpg

  • CSP TECHNOLOGIES AVAILABLE

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 4

    Conceptually similar, concentrate solar DNI and generate electricity via thermodynamic cycle

    Parabolic Dish-Stirling is ill-suited for TES, omitted from study

  • HYBRIDIZING CSP -100% RENEWABLE

    ELECTRIC

    HYBRIDIZATION

    CSP+PV CSP+WIND

    THERMAL

    HYBRIDIZATION

    CSP+BIOMASS CSP+GEOTHERMAL

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 5

    TES

    PV

    CSP

    Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

    TES

    CSP

    Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

    Wind Turbine

    Biomass Boiler

    CSP

    Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

    GEOTHERMAL

    CSP Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

  • HYBRIDIZING CSP-FOSSIL FUELS

    LOW SOLAR

    SHARE

    Solar-aided power gen. (SAPG) Integrated Solar CC (ISCC)

    HIGH SOLAR

    SHARE

    Decoupled Solar CC (DSCC) DSCC with PV

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 6

    Coal / Fuel / Boiler

    CSP

    Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

    Gas Turbine

    HRSGCSP

    Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

    Gas Turbine TES

    CSP

    Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

    Gas Turbine

    TES

    CSP

    Steam Turbine

    ELECTRICAL GENERATION

    PV

  • INSTALLED CAPACITYTrend in Technology choice

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 7

    PT79%

    HY3%

    CT12%

    DS0%

    LF6%

    Technology choice, actual

    PT HY CT DS LF

  • STATUS IN MENA COUNTRIES

    MENA CSP CTF Investment Plan has been a driving force in the region

    All MENA countries under study have signed the Paris Agreements, most have submitted INDCs

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 8

    CountryImplementation

    PeriodGHG Target Type Greenhouse gas emission

    Cost of implementation

    Algeria 2021-2030Baseline scenario

    target7-22% by 2030

    Egypt 2015-2030 Not applicable USD 73 million

    Jordan 2013-2020Baseline scenario

    target1,5% by 2030 compared to BAU

    Morocco --Baseline scenario

    target32% by 2030 compared to BAU

    Tunisia 2015-2030 Intensity Target7t CO2 per capita in 2010, target in 2030: 3,4t CO2per

    capita. (48% reduction)USD 45 billion

    Libya Not submittedSaudi Arabia 2021-2030 130 million tons of CO2eq avoided annually by 2030

    Kuwait Actions onlyOman 2020-2030 Fixed Level Target GHG emissions growth by 2%UAE Not applicable

  • STATUS OF CSP MARKETSTechnology Focus

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 29

  • CSP TECHNOLOGY COMPARISON

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 30

    Technology PT LF DS CT

    Typical size (MW) 10 280 1 125 1 10 135

    Concentration Factor 70 80 25 100 600 4000 600 1200

    Capacity Factor (%) 30 50 20 30 20 30 40 70

    Operation Temperature (C) 293 393 140 275 250 700 290 565

    Solar Electric perf. (%) 16 18 9 11 12 25 16 20

    Installed worldwide (MW) 4,336 319 3 689

    Use of land (MWh/(hayear)) 600 1,000 600 1,000 400 800 400 800

    Maturity Commercial Commercial Demo Commercial

    Reflector Parabolic mirror Flat/curved mirror Paraboloid mirror Curved mirror

    ReceiverAbsorber tube w/

    vacuum coverAbsorber tube w/

    concentratorStirling engine /

    gas turbineExternal / Cavity

    HTF Thermal oil Saturated steam AirMolten salt / Water-steam

    TESMolten salts,

    indirectSteam

    accumulatorN/A

    Molten salts, direct / steam accumulator

    TES capacity 4 12 hours < 1 hour N/A 6 14 / < 1 hours

    Hybridization capable Yes, existing Yes Unlikely Yes

  • CSP, PV OR HYBRID?

    On production cost alone, PV is, today, significantly cheaper than CSP; it is also more modular and easy to design, construct, maintain and operate System costs not reflected in LCOE

    When dispatchability is required, TES is cheaper to install and to run, which gives CSP a competitive edge. If combined with cost reduction, utility scale makes more sense with CSP

    Hybridizing CSP with fuels can ease the path, reducing emissions while providing track record to CSP, and time to amortize plants in operation

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 31

  • 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 32

    Note: Values in USD/MWh (2016). WACC = 8%, 25 year technical life for solar (PV-CSP)

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    LCOE Range for Different Technologies

  • A NOTE ON SYSTEM COSTS

    Price of electricity value for the customers: as much as they need, where and when it is needed

    LCOE production cost, regardless where or when

    From LCOE to price integration costs: transmission lines (where) and backup (when) Low capacity factor increases the unit cost of lines

    Also ancillary services not provided by PV, wind

    High RE mix integration costs can trump LCOE

    CSP integration costs are as low as conventional, especially if hybridized

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 33

  • A NOTE ON SYSTEM COSTS (2)

    MENA countries have a firm generation portfolio, penetration of PV/wind is possible but it has a limit

    A country/system level analysis is required to ensure grid stability

    Robust scenarios should be developed for medium/long term demand (economic & population growth) and generation (emission targets, system costs, impact of RE in wholesale market)

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 34

  • CSP INSTALLED CAPACITYFORECASTMethodology and Scenarios

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 35

  • UNCERTAINTY IN PROJECTIONS

    Half a decade ago, expectations for CSP deployment were much higher than the current situation: most long-term forecasts and country plans have not been fulfilled

    Scenarios must be cross-checked with cost projections

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 36

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

    Insta

    lled C

    apacity

    , G

    WBAU-reference STE-GO2016 GP-IEA

    ID-optim ID-reference RD-reference

    RD-pessimScenarios:

    BAU: business as usualID: increased deploymentRD: reduced deploymentSTE-GO: Solar Thermal

    Electricity Global Outlook 2016GP-IEA: Greenpeace-IEA

  • BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 37

    Scenarios:BAU: business as usualSTE-GO: Solar Thermal

    Electricity Global Outlook 2016GP-IEA: Greenpeace-IEA

    Scenario considering plants identified in the pipeline worldwide, up to 2025

    Operating

    Under Construction

    Under Development

    Under Planning

    Announced

    Constant growth after 2025

    20% region for optimistic-pessimistic expectations

  • SCENARIO IN MENA

    Under BAU assumptions, deployment is moderate

    If exporting energy to Europe is realized (DESERTEC or similar) it can be a total game-changer

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 38

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    2016 2020 2025 2030

    Insta

    lled C

    apacity

    , G

    W

    Algeria Egypt Jordan

    Kuwait Libya Morocco

    Saudi Arabia Tunisia UAE

    EXPORT MENA countries MENA pessimistic

    MENA optimistic

  • COSTS AND COST TRENDSHistory and Forecast

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 41

  • IMPACT ON LCOE

    Tower Parabolic Trough

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 42

    55%

    15%

    30%

    Investment cost O&M cost

    Financial cost

    59%

    13%

    28%

    Investment cost O&M cost

    Financial cost

  • ELEMENTS IMPACTING COST

    Installed cost Hard costs: hardware (machinery, structures, etc.)

    Soft costs: services (engineering, design, installation, etc.) and project development (studies, permitting, etc.)

    O&M cost Fixed costs: permanent staff, insurance, land rental

    Variable costs: auxiliary staff, spare parts, consumables

    Capacity factor

    Risk concentrated on investment (as opposed to conventional, risk concentrated on operation)

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 43

  • COST MODELLING

    Bottom-up model considering: Learning by doing

    Learning by researching

    = 0

    0

    log2

    Economy of scale

    = 0

    0

    Validation of parameters (, , ) is carried out with historical data of whole plant costs

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 47

  • COST MODELLING

    Validation results show good correlation (r>90%) average is well represented

    High dispersion (RMSD40%), large plant-to-plant variation

    Average relative error 8%)

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 48

  • COST MODELLING

    Each component cost correlates with one metric

    Nominal power sets the cost for: Power block

    BoP

    EPC cost

    Owners cost

    2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 49

    Reco

    m