Local Housing Market Assessments A Local Authority Perspective

Adam Provoost, Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC

Statutory Duty

All Local Authorities have a requirement to consider the housing accommodation needs of their localities under Section 8 of the Housing Act 1985

2006 Guidance and Consultants?

New Guidance and Training 2012-13

Minister Update May 2013

“I have concluded that improving Local Housing Market Assessments is a priority…

from 1st April 2014 I will require Local Authorities to maintain and ensure that Local Housing Market Assessments are updated within a two year period…

You will need to ensure that sufficient resources are made available to produce a robust Local Housing Market Assessment”

Purpose of Today

• What data is available

• What data is required at different geographies

• Where are the data gaps

• The process and working with other local organisations

The Calculation AND the Assessment

Housing Need

Wh

ole

Ho

usi

ng

Mar

ket

Analysis

The Calculation AND the Assessment

Newly Arising Need for Intermediate Products

Newly Arising Need for Social Rent

Backlog (Waiting Lists)

Supply (New + Turnover)

New Households

Household Projections

2006 / 2008 Based

2011 / 2014 Based

Household Projections

5 Variants

High

Principal

Low

Ten Year Migration

Zero Migration

POPGROUP

HOUSEGROUP

Software

Decomposition of Change

Decomposition of Change

Land Registry Price Paid Data

• Freely Available Since March 2012

• Address Level Data

• Actual Price Paid, not Skewed by Valuations

Address/ Postcode

Date of Transfer

Price Property Type

New Build?

Freehold/ Leasehold

• Few Drawbacks; LCHO Sales and Bedrooms...

Land Registry Data: Lookup or Geocode

1.

2.

3.

House Price Statistics for Small Areas (HPSSAs)

Land Registry Data: Supplemental Data

LLPG & Turnover

Help to Buy Wales

Empty Homes

Private Rental Data

• Rent Officers Wales Data

- Aim to collect 15-20% sample across BRMAs

- BRMAs Not Representative of Local Housing Markets

- Data Unavailable at Smaller Geographies

- Reliant on Good Will – Sample Quality / Distribution?

- Advertised Rents VS Achieved Rents – Rent Inflation?

Private Rental Data: Alternatives

• Commercial Data Products

- Hometrack: Advertised Rents from Property Portals

& Assessed Rents for Buy-to-Let Mortgages

• Primary Research

- Survey of Estate and Letting Agents

- Survey of Landlords Working with the Council

Private Rents: Gaps in Data

• Need Data at Smaller Geographies (Ward, MSOA)

• Balance Existing and Advertised Rents; Rent Inflation

• Needs to be Evenly Distributed & Reflective of Markets

Household Income

- ASHE Data; Individual Earnings Only

- ONS Household Income 2014 based (MSOA)

- Gross and Net, Before and After Housing Costs

- Limitations: Timescales, Averages and Distribution

Household Income: Commercial Data

• Household Income Distribution

• Range of Geographies

Existing Households Falling into Need

Mortgage and Landlord Possession Statistics

• Ministry of Justice Data

• Available at Court or Local Authority Level

• Claims / Orders / Warrants / Repossessions

Homelessness Data

• Households found to be threatened with homelessness during the year (Section 66)

• Households found to be eligible, homeless subject to duty to help to secure during the year (Section 73)

• Households found to be eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need during the year (Section 75)

Homelessness Data

Backlog (Waiting Lists)

Housing Registers

- Property Types Selected / Bedrooms Needed

- Age Breakdown

- Household Income Data

- Current Area and First Choice Area

- Area Analysis

Housing Registers: Areas of Choice

116

54

Housing Registers: Areas of Choice

Supply

Supply

- Units Due to Come Forward Over Next Five Years

- New Build

- Empty Properties Brought Back into Use

- Turnover Within the Affordable Housing Stock

Other Context

- Ethnicity

- Growth or Decline in Households

- Car Availability by Tenure and Area

- Distance Travelled to Work

- Occupancy Rating by Tenure

- Household Information

Primary Research

- Survey of Empty Property Owners

- Focus Groups with Older People

- Survey of New Build Housing Residents

- Discussions at Forums: Landlord, Developer, RSL

All adds context to the figures...

A Never Ending Path!

Summary

• Significantly Reduced Reliance on Consultants

• Decomposition of Change; Household Projections

• Price Paid Great, Missing Number of Bedrooms

• Median Household Income Distribution at Ward/MSOA

• More Robust Private Rents Needed at Ward/MSOA