liz macpherson government statistician and chief executive, statistics nz - speaking at seismics and...
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Liz MacPherson Government Statistician and Chief Executive, Statistics NZ - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014 Building Evidence: Statistical tools and surveysTRANSCRIPT
Released 18 February 2014
2013 Census
QuickStats about greater Christchurch
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Census usually resident population count now 436,056
Cultural diversity1 in 5 people in greater Christchurch area is born overseas compared to 1 in 4 nationally
Of those overseas-born residents that moved to New Zealand in the past 2 years, the six most common countries of birth are:
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More young males…
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52.3% (46,242) of people aged 15 to 29 are male
• Almost 3,000 males in this age group arrived from overseas in the last 2 years
• Of these, 2,000 are employed
Of those males who have arrived from overseas and are employed:
• 25% are working in construction: the majority coming from Ireland and England
…but less young females
47.7% (42,111) of people aged 15 to 29 are female
The top three industries for this group are:
• retail trade, accommodation, and health care and social assistance
30% of those working in health care and social assistance are born overseas
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Fewer school aged children
4% decrease in school aged children• 29.3% increase in Selwyn district• 6.6% increase in Waimakariri district• 9.7% decrease in Christchurch city
The area units with the largest decreases were:• Bexley, Aranui and Dallington
The area units with the largest increase were:• Rolleston, Lehmans (Rangiora) and Pegasus
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Population movement
Since 2008, 81,000 people arrived• 27,726 from overseas• 5,454 from Auckland• 2,256 from Dunedin• 1,752 from Wellington
Since 2008, 38,000 people left and moved to:• North Island (19,437), • other parts of Canterbury (5,802), • elsewhere in South Island (12,591)
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Most people remained in the areaGreater Christchurch population was 436,000
Of the people living in greater Christchurch in 2008:• 89.2% still living in greater Christchurch in 2013• 48.6% of people lived at same address
Change within greater Christchurch• Christchurch city decreased 2% (6,987) to 341,469• Selwyn increased by 33% (10,953) to 44,595• Waimakariri increased by 17% (7,155) to 49,989
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Dwellings
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81% increase in unoccupied private dwellings• National
increase was 16%
Christchurch city most change is seen in the eastern suburbs
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Labour market, industry and retail trade statistics
Employment strong in greater Chch
Labour market and industry statistics 15
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
D03
D04
D05
D06
D07
D08
D09
D10
D11
D12
D13
Percent
Employment rateGreater Christchurch
Quarterly
Source: Statistics New Zealand
0
September 2010 earthquake
February 2011 earthquake
Youth NEET rate continues to fall
Youth (15–24) in employment 45,300
In study 37,400
Unemployed 2,900
NEET 5,100
Youth NEET rate 7.5 percent
Labour market and industry statistics 16
0
5
10
15
20
D09
M10
J S D M11
J S D M12
J S D M13
J S D
Percent
Actual
Annual average
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Youth NEET rateGreater Christchurch
Quarterly
Digging behind the industry changes
Growth in construction jobs had come from:• Just over 2,200 people moving into Canterbury to a
construction firm• Nearly 2,600 people already in Canterbury joining a
Construction firm!
From within Canterbury, people in retail, accommodation, and admin/support companies have joined construction firms.
Labour market and industry statistics 17
Value of Building Work
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Christchurch Retail Trade Indicator
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More information releases
QuickStats about Housing
2013 Census meshblock dataset – tables
Business demography data
Construction information (including earthquake related consents and value of building releases)
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Evidence and the roadmap to recovery:
How can we help you?
Seismic & the City 2014
Dr Vivienne IvoryOpus Research
• Where?
• Who?
• When?
Familiar questions…
• Where?
• Who?
• When?
Research questions
• How is the city changing in response to quakes?
• What effect will ongoing changes have on Christchurch’s future recovery?
Questions I am often asked…
• Quick
• Alternative
• Helpful
Creating agile evidence for the recovery phase
• Quick
• Alternative
• Helpful
Creating agile evidence for the recovery phase
Mail redirections
NZ Post
Electronic payment
transactionsPaymark
Business demographic
sStatistics NZ
Agile evidence to understand patterns of change
Mail redirections: Visualising patterns of relocation
Agile evidence to understand patterns of change
Volume of electronic fast-food transactions (June 2010– May 2012)
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10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Num
ber
of tr
ansa
ction
s
HornbyNorthRussley
Riccarton
CathedralSquareNorthcote
Papanui
Linwood
Sydenham
Electronic payment transactions: Flows in economic activity between business locations
Agile evidence to understand patterns of change
Business demographics: Observing the changing nature of business locations
• Can we try a different (better, more vibrant) central city?
Current evidence
–Quality of neighbourhood life
–Healthy ‘lifestyle’ is easy
–Non-suburban lifestyle
Will it still work over the prolonged rebuild phase?
Agile evidence to test future recovery ‘routes’
A liveable central city? Potential resident priorities
Or…?
Moving towards the future
Diverse housing & neighbourhood
options
Meeting ‘normal’ needs
Positive reasons to
moving in early
Integrating resident and
business sector