livestock for social development · technical report on global dairy farm numbers ... india...

Rome, Action Network MeetingMarch 8th, 2018

Ernesto Reyes

Livestock for Social Development

1

Livestock for Social Development 2

15:00 – 15:10 Introduction

15:15 – 15:45 Reporting current projects Prospective paper - Dairy and Poverty Reduction Technical Report on Global Dairy Farm Numbers Dairy Impact Methodology Project proposal on Dairy for Social Development

15:45 – 16:00 Coffee Break

16:00 – 16:45 Working plan discussion Concept areas to cover Other sector’ working groups Defining coordination framework

16:45 – 17:00 Case studies proposal (pastoralists)

17:00 – 17:30 Other

Agenda to develop


15:00 – 15:10 Introduction Agenda to develop


It has been agreed that the initial focus of this ActionNetwork will be on dairy (cows and buffaloes) to startwith and motivate others livestock groups

ANLivestock For Social

Development

01

Background

02

Evidence

04

ConceptualFramework

03

Social

AssesmentImpact

05

What isNext




Development

01

Background

02

Evidence

04

ConceptualFramework

03

Social

AssesmentImpact

05

What isNext

Livestock stakeholders are unable to consistently measure the value of livestock to social development

RATIONALE

Little and incomplete information on the number of people that depend on livestock for their livelihoods

No consistent methodology to assess the socioeconomic benefits derived from livestock activities

Opportunities that livestock provides to contribute to social development remain untapped

INSTITUTIONS

LIVESTOCK INFORMATION, SECTOR ANALYSIS AND POLICY BRANCH

DAIRY DEVELOPMENT PILLAR

IFCN DAIRY NETWORK

WORKING AREAS Evidence

Social Impact Assessment

Conceptual framework

https://www.google.com.uy/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjil52v3MzZAhXoYd8KHWf_BCIQjRx6BAgAEAY&url=http://www.oxtale.co.uk/&psig=AOvVaw2to3vjqCu3kqe3yQ8WW3Ab&ust=1520048552308022

7Livestock for Social Development

AN

01

Background

02

is

CASE STUDIES

REPORTSTechnical report on Global Dairy Farm NumbersProspective paper on Dairyand Poverty Reduction

12


Livestock For Social

Development

02

Evidence

03

Social

AssesmentImpact

CASE STUDIES

REPORTS


Development

02

Evidence

03

Social

AssesmentImpact

CASE STUDIES

REPORTS



Development

02

Evidence

03

Social

AssesmentImpact

Conforming taskforce group

DIM prototype

Workshop for guidingDairy Impact

Methodology (DIM)

04

Framework

03

Social

AssesmentImpact


SCOPE

CONTENT LINES

There is a need to define the scope and working areas of the ActionNetwork. This has to be discussed in the following A.N. meetings



Development

04

ConceptualFramework

AssesmentImpact

05

Next

PROJECT PROPOSAL TO POTENTIAL DONORS3-4 years proposal for delivering evidence and testing DIM

in several countries

WORKSHOP FOR DEFINING SCOPE AND CONTENT LINES

WORKSHOP FOR GUIDING DAIRY IMPACT METHODOLOGY (DIM)

CASE STUDY ON PASTORALISM(Proposal – others are welcome)





Agenda to develop


Dairy and Poverty Reduction Prospective paper


AIM: To provide robust evidence of the impacts of the dairy sector and its development on social and economic conditions

Impact on……

Food consumption

Income

Enhanced Productivity (Milk Marketing on Income)

Expenditure

Employment

OBJECTIVE: Quantitative and robust information on impacts of dairy development on ‘livelihoods’ as potential tool to support achievement of SDG1

APPROACH: Systematic literature review : 5 literature databases, 6

search strings

Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper

Databases & Search Terms

Databases

o Ingentaconnect

o Google Scholar

o Repec

o Web of Science

o Jstor

Search strings

o Dairy, poverty

o Milk production, poverty

o Cow, poverty

o Dairy, income

o Dairy, resilience

o Dairy, economic impact


o A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies providing:

• Quantitative information on the potential impacts of dairying on poverty reduction

• Socio-economic development

To maximize the validity of causal inference

Only randomised controlled trials and observational studies with a comparison group, were included in the group of studies used for the quantitative assessment of the impact of dairying on household welfare


Quantified Impacts

o Direct effects• Increase in food security, income, expenditure, etc. of dairy

households [16, vast majority of papers]

• Salaried on-farm employment [2 papers]

o Indirect effects• Off-farm employment generation in dairy and associated industries

(up-, down- & ‘cross’-stream linkages) [2 papers covering 4 countries]

o Induced effects• Impacts of expenditure of income earned in the ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’

activities and ‘value added’ [5 papers all from North America]


Direct HH Effects of Dairy Cow (DC)

Dairycow

Milk

Manure

Offspring

Nutrition

Crops

Sale / income

Investment

Off-farm


DC Effect on Food Consumption

* p<0.1 ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01; nc not calculated


DC Effect on Income



Effect of Enhanced DC Productivity / Milk Marketing on Income

IM = improved management; * p<0.1 ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01; nc not calculated


DC Effect on Expenditure

** p<0.05


DC Impact on Crop Yields and On-Farm Employment



Post-harvest Employment Generated by 1,000 l Milk Traded

1 Dudhia, 2 Gowala, 3 AratdarSource: Assam, India – Kumar et al. 2010; Bangladesh, Ghana and Kenya - Omore et al. 2005


Dairy Employment (FTE Jobs)Generation (USA & Canada)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Induced

Indirect

Direct

CAL COL VIR WAS CAN

Induced + indirect260

64

,80

0

2,3

00

7,9

00

12

,20

0

87

,70

0


Food consumption

Income

Enhanced Productivity (Milk Marketing on Income)

Expenditure

Employment

Preliminary conclusions (what is the evidence telling us)

Considerable heterogeneity in study designs, assessed impacts and respective metrics

Remarkable consistency in reported outcomes, which are:

Always positive

Nearly always statistically significant

Sizeable (in most cases >20% improvements)



. All studies report a substantial increase in household milk consumption (from a very low base).

. Studies found significant positive impacts on household food expenditure and observed significant positive impacts on non-food expenditures.

. Studies reveal significantly higher employment generation by dairy farms. In addition to generating significantly more employment per cow, also pay higher wages.

. In ‘modern’ dairy industries, around one non-dairy farm job is created for every dairy farm job. For the processing sub-sector, employment multipliers are even higher and range from 3.3 to 9.5

Milk consumption

Household income

Employment

Employment



in Tanzania 5 to 6 years after its inception have found that families that barely managed to survive 6 years ago, are now considered wealthy. After 3–4 years, some farmers saved enough to improve their houses, to increase their land area under crops, and to send their children to secondary school

An additional benefit of DD programmes observed is the increased involvement of women in household decision-making.



the scientific literature on the economic impacts of dairying on household and community welfare provides strong evidence that in specific settings dairy development can make a significant contribution to poverty reduction

Findings (summary)


Public availabilityElectronicallyHardcover edition

Executive summaryRationaleFindingsDiscussionConclusions and recommendationsReferencesAnnex



Global Dairy Farm NumbersTechnical report

FAO and IFCN Dairy Network has started an initiative to align databases re. statistics in the dairy sector

The basis for this work was the Rotterdam declaration

The main output of this exercise is to calculate together the number of dairy farms by regions

Dairy farm number alignment

Strength of FAO approach

• Estimates based on goverment census on livestock farms of countries (f. 1996-2014)

• Estimation is based on share of „dairy cattle farms“ on livestock farms

• Dairy farm number availale for 7-8 world regions

Strength of IFCN approach

• Results based on dairy farm census for goverments/ dairy board or expert estimations

• Data availability for by country: no farm, now „cows“, average farm size

• Time series data for dairy farm numbers 1996 – 2016 available

General finding:

1. Dairy farm number 123 – 128 million (FAO/IFCN estimations – Cattle farms)

2. Rotterdam declaration 2016 had estimated dairy farm number (>150 million)

3. Uncertainty is how to count farms raising dairy goats/sheep/camel

Dairy Farm Numbers

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Frame data for global dairy

FAO* IFCN** Deviation Reason for deviation

Farm number (in 1000)* 128 123 -4%Different approaches/

methodology

All milk production (mill t ) 792 820 4%ECM standardization by

IFCN

Cow and Buffalo production (mill t) 760 783 3%ECM standardization by

IFCN

No. cows and buffalos (in mill head) 337 367 9%Main deviations in India,

Bangladesh and China

Milk yield cows and buffalos (in t / cows /

year)2.3 2.1 -5%

Due to calculation based

on variables of milk

Production per farm (t milk/ farm) 5.9 6.4 7% Due to calculation

based on farm variable

Average farm size (animals/farm) 2.6 3.0 13% Due to calculation

based on farm variable

Consumption per Capita (kg/ capita/year) 110*** 113 3%

* production/animal number source: FAOSTAT 2014, dairy cow farms, est. 2017;

** data for 2014 ( status 10/2017 database), dairy cow and buffalo farms

*** FAO production divided by population

FAO more farms in Eastern

Europe and Central Asia

Dairy Farm Numbers




EU-28

1.3 mill

10,200

1.01

mill6,000

46,000

11,280

1.3 mill

India73.1 mill

Pakistan

7.03 mill

11,900

3.09

mill

• IFCN estimates 120 mill dairy farms worldwide in 2016

• Average farm size = 3 cows/buffalos / farm

Dairy Farm Numbers

Regional distribution


1998 – 2013 + 30 million dairy farms

2013 peak number of dairy farms 125 mill

2013 – 2016: farm number declined

5 million less (-1.44% year)

Source: IFCN Dairy Report 2017, IFCN Database

Cow and buffalo farms

Global Dairy Farm Number in mill dairy farms (cow and buffalo)

Dairy Farm Numbers

Global trends


Dairy Impact MethodologyGuidelines and tools

Dairy Impact Methodology

Rationale. The lack of systematic evidence of the contribution of the dairy sector to socially-desirable outcomes results in the potential impact of the sector being overlooked in the development discourse.

Deliverables. Guidelines to measure the role of the dairy sector to social development for assisting stakeholders to:

Assess the current contribution of the dairy sector to socially-relevant indicators;

Estimate the return of investments along the dairy value chain on socially-relevant indicators.


Define working and conceptual framework 1StepsToolsMetricsMethods

Determine basic elements to measure

Conform a working consultancy group

the selection of a core set of indicators to measure social impact

the development of a model to link input and output indicators

Testing and refining methods / models

2

3

4

5

6


Dairy Impact Analysis approach

What to measure

Current contribution of dairy

What if analysis

Return on Investment

Social ROI


Dairy impact analysis approach

What to measure

Current contribution of dairy

Milk production value

Job creation Income generation

Upstream Downstream


High Medium Low

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

Variable 1

Variable 2

Variable 3

DIM - Basic prototype - Modular structure for calculation

Areas

IndicatorsFormulas to

calculate indicators

Variables

used in the

formulas

Source of

collectionLevel of accuracy

Milk collection facts

Indicator 1 Formula 1



Employment




Turnover

income





DIM prototype

Input variables


DIM prototype

Output variables


DIM prototype

Basic dairy facts



Dairy for Social Development3 years project proposal

GDP, IFCN, Global Agenda & FAO are working in a project proposal for the dairy sector

To be presented to potential donors

An outline proposal is ready

3-4 years project2M-USD

Project proposal

Dairy for Social Development

ToolsMetricsMethods

Evidence Social impact Exchange platform

Deliverables

1. Report “Dairy for social development: Evidence”

A series of prospective papers on the contribution of dairy to selected SDGs

2. Guidelines to assess the contribution of dairy to social development ToolsMetricsMethodsAssess the current contribution of dairy to socially-relevant indicators;

Estimate the return of investments in dairy along the value chain on socially-relevant indicators.

The methodology will be a public good to be available for most world’s countries. It is intended to be a useful tool to assess the social development gains attributable to investments in the dairy sector.

Dairy for Social Development - proposal

3. Report on the Role of dairy for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 3 countries

Implementing guidelines in 3 countries, for testing and refinement, generating a report on its contribution to the SDGs

4. A Global Report on the Role of dairy for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

The finalised guidelines will be implemented using data from a large number world’s countries to make a strong case of the importance of the dairy sector to achieving Agenda 2030.

Deliverables

Dairy for Social Development - proposal





16:00 – 16:45 Working plan discussion Concept areas to cover Other sector’ working groups Defining coordination framework

16:45 – 17:00 Case studies proposal (pastoralists)

17:00 – 17:30 Other

Agenda to develop


Action Network - Working plan

Current working areas

Evidence Methodologies and tools Concept areas

ReportsCase studies

Methodologies Guidelines Tools

What else to consider?1

Governance2

Project proposal to potential donors

3



• Is there any other working area to consider?

• Which areas of the social aspects are we planning to cover?• (Cultural aspects, economic impact, gender, among other, are important

areas for evaluating the livestock sector.)

• Gender (WELI index - ILRI)

• Resilience

Women’s Empowerment Livestock Index (WELI),



Coordination - Governance

Process to be concluded in the next MSP (Mongolia June 2018)

Institutions propose candidates

Selection process

Members of the Action Network define Allocate time for coordination In-kind contribution Lead action plan Coordinate AN Active participation in the GASL activities



Case studies

Global Network of SPS + Closing the Efficiency Gap

o (will include social evaluation and offer current case studies)

Pastoralism (production systems, regions and communities)

o Current proposal

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