lincolnshire research observatory projecting not predicting projecting not predicting – how...

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk

Projecting not Predicting

Projecting Not Predicting – How external influences can impact

Adam PeacockPrincipal Development Officer - Research



This presentation will cover:

• What do population projections tell us?

• Population projections over time

• Examples of how external influences can impact on population projections

• Using local intelligence to inform existing projections



Population Projections

• A projection is a view of something in the future, based on present data or trends.

• Provide us with a view of our population if current trends were set to continue



• Key input to long-term fiscal projections

• Future expenditure on benefits and pensions

• Key input for analysis on policy areas such as extending working lives

• Future school pupil numbers

• Resource planning and healthcare provision

• Key input to official household projections

• Grant formulation to local authorities

• Academic researchers, private companies for market research

What are projections used for?



• Latest mid-year population estimates as a starting point

• The population is aged on (apart from the armed forces population)

• A projected number of births is added on

• A projected number of deaths are subtracted

• Adjustment made for projected net migration

How are the projections produced?



Projection Assumptions

• Recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration will continue

• Built on an average of five years of historic local level data



Assumption Sources

Assumption SourceBirth and death rates

Civil Registration System

Internal migration

Patient Data Register System

Student moves Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

International migration

- International passenger Survey

- Labour Force Survey

- Home Office

- National Asylum Support Services



Latest Population ProjectionLincolnshire Projection Population 2008 - 2033

838,200 (21%)

411,100 (3%)

256,500 (84%)

170,700 (8%)



Local Population Projections Over Time

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

Po

pu

lati

on

(0

00

's)

2003 based

2004 based

2006 based

2008 based

Projected Lincolnshire Population, 2003 - 2033



National Population Projections Over TimeProjected Population, 2003 - 2035



Difference in Projected UK Population at 2005 by component, selected projections

National Population Projections Over Time



Projections are not forecasts

They do not attempt to predict the impact of:

- Changing economic circumstances

- Future government policies (whether in the UK or overseas)

They also take no account of the capacity of areas to accommodate population



Changing Economic Circumstances

Over 70,000 people



Projected and Estimated Population for Lincoln City

3,000 people



Lincoln City 16 – 24 Population

10,600 16 -24 year olds



Putting this into Practice

• Growth points

• Current economic conditions

• Lincoln Eastern Bypass



What does this tell us and what can we do?

• Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain

• Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections

• Use local intelligence and knowledge



Estimated and Projected Population of the UK 2000 - 2035



What does this tell us and what can we do?

• Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain

• Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections

• Use local intelligence and knowledge and apply it to nationally produced local level population projections

• Consider alternative future views of Lincolnshire’s population



Housing Scenarios



Migration Scenarios



Jobs Scenario



Ageing Population



So what have we covered?• What projections tell us about the future

population

• How these projections are produced and the assumptions used

• Populations projections are just that – a projection

• Some alternative scenarios of population growth in Lincolnshire



Any Questions?

lincolnshire research observatory projecting not predicting projecting not predicting – how...

Documents