lighthouse investment management - special report - 2014 november - the bottle is full
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
1/29
L
N 2014
I M
1
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
2/29
L I M
N 2014 2
C
....................................................................................................................................................... 3
50 D ......................................................................................................................................... 4
I: D' B F ...................................................................................................................... 6
D GD G? ............................................................................................................................ 8
B I F .......................................................................................................................................... 10
A ? ...................................................................................................................................... 13
N ...................................................................................................................................... 14
G G ...................................................................................................... 21
I 2024 ......................................................................................................................................... 28
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
3/29
L I M
N 2014 3
Summary
F . M ,
, . . . .
B , , , .
, . D
, . I
, . H, GD
. B . L
,
. , , . F, ,
. D . N GD () () . E , .
, , , ,
( ).
;
. D , . B
. .
"" . F . EF , ,
,
.
, , '
.
IMF ,
. . B
(). ECB
E. IMF ,
. .
A ,
. N L , . H C,
.
.
, . I
, .
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
4/29
L I M
N 2014 4
50 Shades of Debt
I GD "
1940', "1
:
. F , '
. I , . ''
, .
N ( ). G .
,
.
F , CMD ( C M D ).
1 ''
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
5/29
L I M
N 2014 5
I (1 2014) $57.5, 359% GD:
N ( ).
N ;
. , : (1987)
1933 (2009). N . I !
1 2009 2 2010 II CMD
( $1 2%). ! A .
. .
.
60 , . I 100% ( ) GD, () 5%,
GD 50% 14 ( ).
.
I . I , GD ( ). ,
, . E , .
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
6/29
L I M
N 2014 6
Inflation: Debtor's Best Friend
F B 100 .
. % 1913 ( ). :
' . 1870 1933:
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
7/29
L I M
N 2014 7
N . , 10
. D' ? L J:
' 1998 ( ). ' 16 .
1998 .
, J' GD . I 20 :
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
8/29
L I M
N 2014 8
,
20 . I, GD 25%, J
200%.
' ' ( K) ' . G ? ,
' ?
'' ? , , . B 6 $12
, ?
What Drives GDP Growth?
B J. GD
. E , , 2. I
J
( ).
E G3, F, I
. GD .
E C
2016.
2I , J ,
3G : 2013, 1.2 G, 0.8
, 0.4 1993.
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
9/29
L I M
N 2014 9
A
GD
1980 ( ). ,
GD ''
.
B ( ),
.
C ( )
GD
() . E
,
.
B ?
,
"".
. .
A 20
, GD
.
H ?B . G
( '
)
( ). B GD
.
,
. A .
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
10/29
L I M
N 2014 10
The Bottle Is Full
?
4
.
L' . I ,
' .
.
I 11:00 ' .
A , .
A , .
, . A .
A 12:00 .
: ?
4: .B.
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
11/29
L I M
N 2014 11
11:59. A
. '
. 11:00
11:59.
.
, GD ( ) . B
( ), .
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
12/29
L I M
N 2014 12
,
. D ,
'.
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
13/29
L I M
N 2014 13
Are We There Yet?
? , . J
, I , : . L ,
.
.
I , ,
.
G 2009? N.
.
2008 " " I .
, D B' E 52 ,
20 G' GD, . ,
189 572 .
A , . G
, ,
. . H
? H
( )?
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
14/29
L I M
N 2014 14
Point of No Return
I ? H ? G
1969, .
I 2014, G 7.5% GD. G'
' .
'', G 7.5% GD (
/ ).
I ? I 5, I C M
B (ICMB)
: "C
,
GD
, ".
.
: (1) ,
,
. (2)
.
G
.
1: ' . H, : ) )
( ). I , 1% 50%
' , 50% 0.5% .
I , , .
,
. .
CNCLIN:
I . A
, . B GD .
M
5"D? D?" , ICMB, 2014
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
15/29
L I M
N 2014 15
. H, ,
, .
? I ' . I,
(, , ). B .
, , ,
.
M ,
. I . H,
. ;
.
M : 50 , 50
, . N ,
.
J
"
E"
(
). A
J
2008. A
,
" "
J'
F .
,
J'
. C ( ) AA
. 10 J G (JGB') 0.5%,
(0.36%). GD 36%, J 227% ( 6
).
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
16/29
L I M
N 2014 16
JGB' , . : () ,
( , , B
J). BJ J 6.6 5 '
J 5.5 .
"" .
J :
.
I , F JGB' ( ) J
( ) .
F . ,
. I
"" ( ), ( F)
. .
N B (NB) CHF 75,
4 .
"I 2013, B
12% 16%. I 6."
E. NB E
E F 1.20. A , NB
G
. N ' ,
. G E
,
.
: C
. C (= CB) . A,
: . C
, . A , 32,000
, .
6NB: 2013 A , 15
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
17/29
L I M
N 2014 17
C
.
G
.
()
.
"C B G A" (CBGA),
( 400
500 )
.
5 .
H,
2008,
,
.
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
18/29
L
N 2014
""
. ,
. I , ,
.
A $50,000
. F
7"ECB ",
I M
N
1,500
N NB
I
(N 30)
( I '
,
,
E/CHF
?
. I :
"ECB
M ()
F
,
E.
E B
I .
,
. A
,
"
.
? A ,
, ,
, N 17, 2014
18
1993
B,
.
.
), NB
1,500
(,
.20).
"7
" ECB
"
.
M. M
'
",
,
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
19/29
L I M
N 2014 19
$300, 3 "" ( ).
$50,000 , $500 .
J I , :
" D C B 122.5
4 E ($5 )
A."8
' . A , B " "
2013. G
N . H :
300 F 2020
(B, 1/16/2013)
5 2013. 300 (B,
1/20/2014)
: 150 , 2015 (H, 2/6/2014)
G ; G (B,
6/23/2014)
F B
N (FBN)
. I 2013,
,
(
G).
H, 2014,
. , 77 .
D ?
.
I
8A, N 21, 2014
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
20/29
L I M
N 2014 20
122 , FBN. I
G . G
( , ,
).
I , D
. I , D . N
.
. A
, , ("
").
A " E" ( )
:
I 9, ECB
. I , , .
H , , E E
60 . ( ) (
) .
. ;
.
9 G, G
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
21/29
L I M
N 2014 21
Geopolitical Game of Power in Ukraine
C ( "")
. H I ": D " (D 10, 2013):
" E
( ). A
( D )
. I , ( G).
CCLI: . B : IF.
: ."
L ( , M 4, 2014), I
:
C 1954
K, 3 , (B
, A, A, D )
C ' B
' 362 (ICB10)
"" , E
.
NA . N,
H C 11:
"I J 11 2008
, ,
C A A G J H , ' A,
A . I
A A
A ."
10ICBM = IC B M
11" H C M NA", J 28, 2008
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
22/29
L I M
N 2014 22
" " . I 12 F 1, 2008, A
B :
F ' A
A (A) B , F L ,
. A
, , " "
,
A G. I ,
, ,
, , .
A, G A
' ,
, .
MC M K 2013,
:
" E. , !
, A , I ! I ,
!"
, M, E A A (
"" N 21, N 26, 2013).
(F 21, 2014). B F 26, ""
C . M 16,
. , C
F.
B , . ,
E ( , ).
C B M M .
' CIA . . H,
CIA, :
" H CIA D J B
K, , E."13
12"08MC265", C A B J C , NA E C,
N C, D, . : L
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
23/29
L
N 2014
I '
, . A
" B'H, '
? A
B . H
.
,
( IMF,
M
'
)? .
13
" H: B K 14
"B'
I M
. A I
:
H .
' ,
? . M , "
,
"", ' .
' . A
G
. G ( M, F).
...
", A , A 14, 2014", A , M 13, 2014
23
.
"14
"
.
). A
, B,
(B
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
24/29
L I M
N 2014 24
. NA'
, , .
D (C, , K, J, F,
A, I, G, I B) ,
.
.
D
.
$1214.5
N (
$12
). H , (
) .
. H
:
"The United States, alone among the major powers, has the tremendous strategic advantage of having two of the
worlds great oceans as moats. The stopping power of water is such that no state in the international arena canthreaten the US homeland. The oceans offer not just protection but also access to world markets. People, ideas, goods,
and technologies are transmitted smoothly and rapidly over sea-lanes protected by US naval primacy.
Sea power is different from land-based military power. Threats by land travel weakly over distances. Although a sea-
borne invasion of a territory well-defended by a great power is well-nigh impossible, sea power can be easily projected
far from home. Moreover, unlike on land, where a rough balance of forces can persist for long periods of time, the
blue-water security market is a natural monopoly. Jean D. Bloch, the turn of the century Russian railroad baron and
prominent banker who predicted the course of the First World War, argued in 1902 that there was no point in building a
blue-water navy that is not supreme, since a fleet that is not supreme is just a hostage in the hands of the power whose
fleet is supreme."
, ' J, ' , ' . : J
J .
, . A J
C ( ).
15" ", : , M 21, 2013
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
25/29
L I M
N 2014 25
E.
. A E. 4%
B , 3% , 2% (
F).
E.
E .
E ( )
.
BIC
. C
, .
H' : , '
, K. , .
E . B 16 " A'
, E
". E . H,
, CE K G.
B , , ( ) .
,
. ' .
, . .
(' , ). . ,
. H
100,000'
. ,
' ,
A,
"",
.
B
A
?
H
16, 4, 2014
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
26/29
L I M
N 2014 26
. & . C , N B I,
30% J. 68% ' 2013.
$100/ ( ).
F ( ), . A H
. C B $70
( , ) .
, .
E 40:1 60:1 ,
E 50% E . I 8%.
' 148 1990' (: 143).
, , , . H, E
.
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
27/29
L I M
N 2014 27
? A ,
( = ). H, . / ,
, ("") . M
, , G .
E E , .
I , E,
' & .
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
28/29
L I M
N 2014 28
In The Year 2024
J 17 "I 2024" ( ). H "
, . I, , ,
."
B I :
F 2018
M 2017 E7 (
E 7)
B 201820 G20 D, E
( , J C ). F
.
A 2020,
$40,000 2019
2019
G ,
.
' . N
' , .
A .
A G LIM
,
'
,
17A "C " " D M"
-
8/10/2019 Lighthouse Investment Management - Special Report - 2014 November - The Bottle is Full
29/29
L I M
'
, , ,
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
, ()
() ,