lightcounting dinner seminar of the industry and...2009 . 2010 : content providers 内容服务商...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: LightCounting Dinner Seminar of the Industry and...2009 . 2010 : Content Providers 内容服务商 $5,191 . $6,425 : $9,508 . $11,538 : Service Providers 运营商 $6,033 . $2,796](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050719/5ad4d2f47f8b9a5c638c4d88/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
LightCounting Dinner Seminar
March 7, 2012
3/12/2012 1
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Agenda日程 • Vladimir Kozlov, – CEO and Founder, LightCounting, LightCounting CEO 和创始人 State of the optical communications industry and Market outlook for 2012.光通信产业状况和
2012年市场展望 • Matt Traverso – Product Marketing, Cisco, Cisco产品市场部
High-speed interconnects from the data center router to the Metro loop and trends in optical transceivers. 从数据中心路由器到城域网的高速互联和光收发器趋势
• Brad Smith – Senior Vice President, LightCounting LightCounting高级副总裁 The data tsunami on the horizon. 40G/100G transceivers, AOCs, embedded modules, direct attach cables and 10GBASE-T爆炸式流量需求--山雨欲来。 40G/100G 收发器,AOC,嵌入式模块、有源电缆和10GBASE-T
• Brad Booth – Distinguished Engineer, Networking CTO Office at Dell知名工程师 Dell 网络CTO High-speed interconnects trends and issues linking servers, switches and routers in the data center 高速网络互联的发展趋势和问题与数据中心的服务器、交换机以及路由器的 发展息息相关 • Scott Schube – Senior Market Analyst, LightCounting LightCounting 高级市场分析师 Review of OFC show floor discoveries – CANCELLED OFC现场热点评述 (取消)(下周将以实时通信的形式发布) (OFC highlights will be covered in a newsletter next week)
3/12/2012 2
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
LightCounting Team LightCounting团队
• Marihette Fourie – Director of Sales and Marketing • Melody Rao – Sales Manager in Asia • Renee Isley – Business Manager • Brad Smith – Executive VP and Chief Analyst • Vladimir Kozlov – CEO and founder • Lilah Gonen – Analyst • Open Position – Senior Analyst
3/12/2012 3
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
State of the Industry and Market Outlook for 2012行业状况和2012年市场展望
Vladimir Kozlov March 2012
3/12/2012 4
![Page 5: LightCounting Dinner Seminar of the Industry and...2009 . 2010 : Content Providers 内容服务商 $5,191 . $6,425 : $9,508 . $11,538 : Service Providers 运营商 $6,033 . $2,796](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050719/5ad4d2f47f8b9a5c638c4d88/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
The Industry Supply Chain产业链
3/12/2012 5
$, €, ¥
Products产品
CapEx资本支出
Product sales, 产品销售 Port count 端口数
Sales, ASPs,销售额 Units 平均售价和个数
Units个数
运营商 内容服务商 企业/大学
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Average Non-GAAP Net Income Across the Supply Chain ($ millions) 产业链上的平均非公认会计原则净收入
(百万美元计)
3/12/2012 6
Companies公司 2007 2008 2009 2010
Content Providers内容服务商 $5,191 $6,425 $9,508 $11,538
Service Providers运营商 $6,033 $2,796 $5,423 $6,864 System Vendors系统商 $332 -$815 $698 $664 IC Vendors IC供应商 $732 $710 $608 $1,692 OC and Transceiver Vendors OC和收发器供应商 $24 $34 $17 $86
FCI, Molex, Tyco Fabrinet,
Sanmina
HiSense HG Genuine
Optical component and module vendors are under increasing pressure
Silicon Photonics
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Service Provider Revenue and CapEx运营商收益和资本支出
3/12/2012 7
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
+7.5%
$120
$130
$140
$150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
+5%
Revenue CapEx
CapEx Trends: 资本支出趋势 • Less construction 更少基建 • Less copper 更少铜线 • More wireless 更多无线 • More optics 更多光缆
收益 资本支出
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Service Provider Business运营商面面观
3/12/2012 8
• Regulations: Maintaining Scale, but avoiding Monopoly政策法规:保持规模,但避免垄断
• AT&T, T-Mobile USA – “no deal” AT & T 和T-Mobile- 合并—没有实现 • China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom • 中国移动、中国电信和中国联通
• Network Neutrality 网络公平性 • FTTx deployments, Google FTTx 部署 、 Google • Government funded deployments 政府出资的部署
• New business models developed by Content Providers may be future business opportunities for service providers 内容服务商开发的新运营模式有可能是运营商的未来生意机会
• Salesforce.com, Netflix, Facebook, Rackspace • Verizon acquires Terremark - a cloud computing company and challenges Netflix with an alternative video on demand service Verizon 并购了Terremark –一个云计算公司。提供可以实时选择的视频点播服务。这对Netflix是一个挑战。
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Telecom Equipment Suppliers 电信设备商
3/12/2012 9
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Reve
nue
($B)
ZTE
NSN
Huawei
Ericsson
Alcatel Lucent
Company 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Alcatel Lucent $24.9 $25.2 $21.3 $21.2 $22.0 4% Ericsson $28.2 $31.2 $27.5 $28.4 $34.8 22% Huawei $12.6 $18.3 $21.8 $28.7 $31.5 10% NSN $18.9 $22.8 $17.6 $15.9 $19.7 23% ZTE $4.6 $6.4 $8.8 $10.4 $12.5 21% Total $89.2 $104.0 $97.0 $104.6 $120.5 15% Change % 17% -7% 8% 15%
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Datacom Equipment Suppliers数据设备商
3/12/2012 10
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
2008 2009 2010 2011
Reve
nue
($B)
Brocade
Cisco
Dell
EMC
HP
IBM
Juniper
Company 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Brocade $1.6 $2.1 $2.1 $2.1 2% Cisco $20.8 $17.6 $20.9 $21.8 4% Dell $7.0 $8.2 $9.9 $10.3 4% EMC $8.0 $7.0 $8.8 $10.1 14% HP $18.5 $15.8 $19.9 $21.6 9% IBM $11.0 $10.5 $11.7 $12.4 6% Juniper $2.7 $2.6 $3.3 $3.5 7% Total $69.5 $63.8 $76.5 $81.7 7% Change -8% 20% 7%
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Optical Transceiver Sales 光收发器销售额
3/12/2012 11
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sale
s ($
M)
+7%
+36% 以美元计
+11%
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Forecast Methodology预测方法
3/12/2012 12
? Forecast example
real market data
1. Real Sales data provided by suppliers 供应商提供的真实销售数据 2. Forecast model linked to market drivers 根据左右市场的因素进行预
测
预测范例
实际市场数据
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Market Data Provided By:市场数据由以下公司提供
• Avago • Civcom • Delta Electronics • eGtran • Emcore • Finisar • Fujitsu • HiSense Broadband • Hitachi Cable • Ignis (Finisar)
• JDS Uniphase • Luxtera (Molex) • Merge Optics (FCI) • NEC • NeoPhotonics • Oclaro • Opnext • Source Photonics • Sumitomo • Zarlink (Tyco)
3/12/2012 13
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Sales Data Example 销售数据样本
3/12/2012 14
Ethernet
SONET/SDH
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Calculating Network Bandwidth计算网络带宽
3/12/2012 15
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Net
wor
k ba
ndw
idth
(a.u
.)
Total bandwidth of transceivers sold pre year前一年所售出的收发器总带宽
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Network Bandwidth Growth Rate 网络带宽增长率
3/12/2012 16
Bandwidth = SUM over 5 years (Number of DWDM ports * Data Rate) 带宽=5年以上带宽总量(DWDM端口数*速率)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Internet traffic growth DWDM network bandwidth growth
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
2007 Forecast vs. Actual data 2007预测与实际数据
3/12/2012 17
DWDM Market
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 Forecast Actual Sales 真实数据 2007预测
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Quarterly Sales of DWDM modules DWDM模块季度销售额
3/12/2012 18
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Sales ($M)
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Quarterly Sales of SFP+ 10 GigE transceivers SFP+ 10GigE 收发器季度销售额
3/12/2012 19
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Sale
s ($
M)
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
10 GigE Forecasted and Actual shipments 预测的 10 GigE 收发器销售额与出货量
3/12/2012 20
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2007 Forecast Actual shipments 2009 Forecast 2007年预测 实际出货量
2009年所做预测
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Global FTTx market全球FTTx市场
3/12/2012 21
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New FTTH subscribers ONU transceiver shipmentsLaser ans IC chip shipments
新FTTH用户 激光器和IC芯片出货量
ONU 收发器出货量
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 22
Network Bandwidth Growth 网络带宽增长
Customer Premises Network
Core Network
Net
wor
k Ba
ndw
idth
1 Mbps
20 Mbps 1 Tbps
10 Tbps
“To move up the value chain of profitable services, provider must deploy ample network bandwidth, end to end” Leping Wei, China Telecom 要想提高更有价值的服务,运营商必须提供 足够的带宽,点对点---中国电信韦乐平
网络带宽
核心网 驻地网
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3/12/2012 54
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LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 59
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