light-duty diesel market potential in north americalight-duty diesel market potential in north...

Light-Duty Diesel MarketPotential in North America

Diesel Engine EmissionsReduction Conference

August 22, 2005Chicago

Charles E. Freese, VExecutive Director, Diesel EngineeringGeneral Motors Corporation

GM’s Long Term Vision

Remove the automobile from the energy & environmental equation

ReducedVehicle

Emissionsand

IncreasedVehicle

FuelEconomy

Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term

Hybrid ElectricVehicles

Incremental InternalCombustion Engine and

Transmission Improvements

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy

HydrogenInfrastructure




Hybrid ElectricVehicles

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

ReducedVehicle

Emissionsand

IncreasedVehicle Fuel

Economy


Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy

These technologies will exist simultaneously

ReducedVehicle

Emissionsand

IncreasedVehicle

FuelEconomy




Advanced Propulsion Technology StrategyNear-Term


Diesel Market OverviewGM’s Perspective• Diesel engines are a key strategic component of GM’s

advanced propulsion strategy• GM has capacity for over 1.3 million diesels per year• Diesel powertrains satisfy unique vehicle requirements

– Utility & large vehicles– Displacement limited passenger cars

• Significant technological challenges exist for long term light duty North American presence

– NOx aftertreatment & fuel limitations• GM is committed to developing global diesel solutions

Dut

yC

ycle

Commercial (High Load)

Consumer (Light load)

DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)

Propulsion Application Map

Dut

yC

ycle



DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)

Propulsion Application MapDiesel Hybrid

Bus

Dut

yC

ycle



DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)

Propulsion Application MapDiesel Hybrid

Bus

City Car(Gas Hybrid)

Dut

yC

ycle



DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)



Diesel HybridBus

Non-towing HighwayGas Car & SUV



Dut

yC

ycle

DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)



Diesel HybridBus

Propulsion Application Map Over the RoadTruck

Dut

yC

ycle



DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)


Over the RoadTruck


Diesel HybridBus


Heavy DutyPickup Truck

Dut

yC

ycle



DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)



Over the RoadTruck


Diesel HybridBus

Commuter Car


Dut

yC

ycle



DriveCycle

Stop-and-Go

(City)

Continuous

(Highway)


Commuter CarCity Car

(Gas Hybrid)

Over the RoadTruck


Diesel HybridBus


Where to Use Diesels?• European light duty vehicles (near 50%)• Heavy duty Class 7 & 8 trucks for cargo hauling• Heavy duty diesel hybrid buses• Asia-Pacific

– Korea, India, & potentially China are growing markets)– Strong diesel bias in Korean SUV market (over 90% diesel)

• North America– First introduced diesel engines in larger vehicles– Consumer recovery of additional financial investment– Utility applications– Towing & hauling

European Diesel Passenger Car Market

Originallydisplacement driven Originallydisplacement driven

Now fun to drive &gasoline-likeNow fun to drive &gasoline-like

North American Vehicle Sales MixLight Duty Truck & Sport Utility Vehicles (SUV) Gain Share

• U.S. vehicle market share:– Passenger car volumes have declined– Light duty trucks & SUVs gained relative market share

• Light truck share will remain high for foreseeable future

SUV7%

LightTruck26%

Passenger Car67%

1990 27%

SUV23%

50%

2002

PassengerCar

LightTruck

Heavy Duty Duramax Applications

North American GrowthNorth American Heavy Duty Pickup Truck Market(3/4 & 1 Ton)

Month of USA Registration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jan-9

9Apr-

99Ju

l-99

Oct-99

Jan-0

0Apr-

00Ju

l-00

Oct-00

Jan-0

1Apr-

01Ju

l-01

Oct-01

Jan-0

2Apr-

02Ju

l-02

Oct-02

Jan-0

3Apr-

03Ju

l-03

Oct-03

Jan-0

4Apr-

04Ju

l-04

Oct-04

Jan-0

5Apr-

05Ju

l-05

Oct-05

Jan-0

6

3/4 and 1-ton Full Size Truck Volume by Manufacturer – Diesel Only

Uni

ts R

egis

tere

d

Ford Diesel

GM DieselDCx Diesel

Total Diesel Industry

Heavy Duty Duramax Applications

Why Use Diesels?• Heavy duty towing & hauling (high load advantage is greater)• Satisfy fuel economy improvement objectives

– Positive influence on CO2 & CAFE– Real world fuel economy improvement – a robust solution

• Improve vehicle performance with lower displacement engine– Fun to drive

• Achieve benefit of tax incentives in European markets

Economic Model – Fuel Price as an InfluenceComparison between U.S. & Europe

Fuel

Pric

e (D

olla

rs/G

allo

n) 71%67%

58%

47%39%

26%

3%0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Austria France Spain Italy Germany U.K. U.S.

Gasoline BaseDiesel Base

Gasoline TaxDiesel Tax

Diesel Penetration

Source: U.S. Department of Energy Report, October 2003;Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, April 2003

Note: All Data Valid through December 2002Correlation with fuel price: R2=0.61

CurrentU.S.

Gasoline

Economic ModelComparison between U.S. and Europe – Diesel Break-Even Point

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,0000

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Vehi

cle

Mile

age

(mile

s)

Initial Purchase Price ($ U.S.)

35 MPG

30 MPG

25 MPG

20 MPG

Gas=15 MPG

Gas=35 MPG30252015

North AmericaGas=Diesel=$2.50/Gal

North AmericaGas=Diesel=$2.50/Gal

Europe:Gas = $6/Gal

Diesel = $5/Gal

Europe:Gas = $6/Gal

Diesel = $5/Gal

Vehicle Mileage Required to Recover Diesel Engine Cost

Chart Assumptions:• 20,000 Annual Vehicle Miles• Diesel Efficiency Advantage:

Europe 30%, Bin 5 North America 25%• 6% Annual Finance Rate Available

Diesel Engine Technology Trends –Europe

Spe

cific

Pow

er (k

W/l)

Future HSDIDiesel Engines

Spe

cific

Pow

er (h

p/l)

Turbo ChargedSI Engines

4V-SI Engines

80

60

20

0

40

100

60

20

0

40

80

2V-SIEngines

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Diesel EnginesNaturally AspiratedTurbocharged (TC)TC-Intercooled

Model Year

Benchmark trends to help predict requirements

Source: FEV Data

Western EuropeRicardo Forecast Diesel Passenger Car Sales & Market Penetration to 2006

Diesel Sales Volume

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Diesel Penetration

North AmericanPC Market Share

Introduction ofDI technology

Introduction ofCommon Rail

and VGT

Diesel GrowthWestern Europe & North America

Diesel Car Sales

Forecast Diesel Car SalesDiesel Penetration

Western EuropeRicardo Forecast Diesel Passenger Car Sales & Market Penetration to 2006

Diesel Sales Volume

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Diesel Penetration

Diesel Car Sales

Forecast Diesel Car SalesDiesel Penetration

North AmericanPC Market Share

2nd OilCrisis

GlobalRecessions Introduction of

DI technology

NorthAmerican

Class 2 TruckMarket Share

Introduction ofCommon Rail

and VGT

Introduction of true high performance diesel

engines

$24 $20$57 $37 $15$22 $44 $25 Crude Oil Price (1995$/barrel)

$70+?

Diesel GrowthWestern Europe & North America

Europe vs. U.S. Tier 2 FTP-75 EmissionsLight-Duty

Emission = Emission Index X Fuel Consumption(g/mile) (g/kg fuel) (kg fuel/mile)

Standard NOx PMBin 10 0.60 g/mile 0.080 g/mile

Bin 5 0.07 g/mile 0.010 g/mile

Euro 4 0.25 g/km 0.025 g/kmEuro 5 (TBD)

0.08-0.20 g/km 0.0025-0.010 g/km

Bin 8 0.20 g/mile 0.020 g/mile

Bin 4 0.04 g/mile 0.010 g/mileEuro 3 0.50 g/km 0.050 g/km

NOx (g/km)

Bin 10

Euro 4

Euro 3

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

PM (g

/mile

)

PM

(g/k

m)

0.02

0.05

0.06

0.04

0.02

0

Bin 8

NOx (g/mile)1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.2

0.10

0.080.05

0.03

0.01

0.09

0.070.06

0.040.03

0.01

Euro 5 (TBD)Bin 5

Global Emissions (Europe vs. U.S. Applications)Light-Duty

1.7L I-4 6.6L V-8

Chevrolet SilveradoOpel Astra

Offsetting Diesel NOx Emissions – Tier 2

Moving to a lower bin adds incremental cost to gasoline off-set

vehicles

Option 1 – Bin 4 offset

0.07 NOx Fleet2008 MY +

1 - Bin 8Diesel

0.20g NOx/mile

Diesel penetration19% of fleet

0.04 NOx

0.04 NOx 0.04 NOx

0.04 NOx

4.33 – Bin 4 Gasto Offset

FTP Emissions Test Driving CycleSpeed vs. Time

30

01020

40506070

0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2400Test Time (sec)

Spee

d (M

PH)

City Driving Cycle

US06 Aggressive Driving Emissions Test Cycle

Speed vs. Time

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600Test Time (Sec)

Spee

d (M

PH)

Highway Driving Cycle

NEDC = New European Drive Cycle

FTP–75 & NEDC are similar• Produce similar emissions

Supplemental FTP (SFTP) includes:• US-06• SC-03 (accessory load)

USO6 is more challenging• US-only• Higher load • Higher speed• Higher NOx• 50% to 150% more NOx

than FTP-75

FTP-75 versus US-06 Drive Cycles

US-06NMHC+NOx

FTP Bin 8(@120K)

NMHC+NOx

FTP Bin 5 (@120K)

NMHC+NOx

0.140 g/mile 0.325 0.160

0.250 0.325 0.160

0.400 0.325 0.160

0.600 0.325 0.160

LDT3

LDT2

PC/LDT1

LDT4

Light Duty Supplemental Emissions Test CyclesUS-06 Emissions Limits versus FTP-75

More difficult US-06 test has lower standard than FTP

DPF, SCR & LNTAftertreatment

HCCIHomogeneous

Combustion

PCCIPre-Mixed

Charge Comb.

VVT / VVA

Advanced EGR Systems

Reduced Compression

Ratio

Advanced Boost Configurations

Enhanced EGR Cooling

Low Temp / Low soot

Combustion

Diesel EngineEnabling Technology Development

PCCI Combustion


HCCIHomogeneous

Combustion

PCCIPre-Mixed

Charge Comb.

VVT / VVA


Reduced Compression

Ratio



Low Temp / Low soot

Combustion


Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition(convergence of gasoline and diesel technologies)


HCCIHomogeneous

Combustion

PCCIPre-Mixed

Charge Comb.

VVT / VVA


Reduced Compression

Ratio



Low Temp / Low soot

Combustion


Advanced EGR Cooling


HCCIHomogeneous

Combustion

PCCIPre-Mixed

Charge Comb.

VVT / VVA


Reduced Compression

Ratio



Low Temp / Low soot

Combustion


Advanced Boosting


HCCIHomogeneous

Combustion

PCCIPre-Mixed

Charge Comb.

VVT / VVA


Reduced Compression

Ratio



Low Temp / Low soot

Combustion


NOx Aftertreatment

Aftertreatment SystemsBalancing the requirements of FTP with US06

NO

xC

o nve

rsio

n E

ffici

e ncy

(%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

SCR Effective Range

LNT Effective Range

Typical ThermalOperating “Windows”

Catalyst Operating Temperature (degrees C)

Light Duty Diesel US06

Catalyst TempsLight Duty Diesel FTP

Catalyst Temps

European versus U.S. Tier 2 FTP-75 EmissionsLight-Duty

Test NOx PMLNT Fresh 0.06 g/mile 0.015 g/mile

LNT Aged, Seq.

0.35 g/mile 0.020 g/mileLNT Aged 0.10 g/mile 0.020 g/mile

SCR-Urea Fresh

0.04 g/mile 0.009 g/mile

NOx (g/km)0.07

Bin 10

Euro 4

Euro 3

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

PM (g

/mile

)PM

(g/k

m)

0.02

0.05

0.06

0.04

0.02

0

Bin 8

NOx (g/mile)Bin 5 1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.2

0.10

0.080.05

0.03

0.01

0.09

0.070.06

0.040.03

0.01Euro 5*

SCR-Urea LNTFresh

LNTAged

LNTAged, Sequential Tests

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)Technology Continuum

SIDI-HCCISI CIDICIDI-Low TCIDI-HCCISIDISI-EGR CI-IDI

Gas Diesel

CIDI-EGR

PFI

9 211817161412 158 10

DieselGas6

Atkinson Cycle

4-Valve2-Valve Charge CooledVNTBoostedDieselGas

StagedElectronic-VNT

Stag

ed V

NT

Open LoopElectronic

ModelBased

Controls

ElectronicActuators

FeedForwardModels

Mec

hani

cal

ClosedLoop

Sensors

Adv.Sensors

VirtualSensors

ECUSpeed

DieselDieselGas

SummaryAdvanced Propulsion Solutions

• Portfolio approach is required for advanced powertrain strategies

– Market, vehicle, & customer requirements influence powertrain usage

• Diesel engines are critical to GM’s global product portfolio• Emission regulations, fuel price, taxation based on engine

displacement and fuel consumption largely dictate markets where diesels are popular today

– Voluntary 140 g/km CO2 commitment is a European driver • Increased fuel prices may encourage additional diesel

penetration

SummaryTechnology Driven Trends• Diesel technological advancements over past 15 years

have radically changed public perception of diesels– High performance (torque)– Fun to drive– Refined– Significant penetration in European luxury vehicle segments

• Diesel & gasoline technologies are converging– boost, direct injection, controls, & HCCI

• Must retain fuel economy advantages while meeting new emissions standards

• Diesel must overcome cost disadvantages

SummaryMarket Factors in North America• GM continues to apply North American diesel engines

where they maximize customer benefits:– Large vehicles– Towing & hauling utility applications

• U.S. market, with its larger vehicles, could benefit from diesel technology introduction

• Growing large truck diesel market share implies improved U.S. consumer acceptance of diesel engines

• Must address North American NOx standards(one sixth that of Europe)at an acceptable cost

Diesel Powertrain TechnologyAdvantages• Improved high load fuel economy versus alternatives• Improved low speed torque capacity• Consistent performance

– Robust fuel economy advantages are relatively insensitive to driving cycle

– Consistent utility attributes (gradeability, altitude performance)

• Fun to drive (even with small displacement powertrains)• Image powertrain for utility vehicles (customer willing to

pay premium)• Favorable taxation & fuel prices in specific markets

Diesel Powertrain TechnologyDisadvantages

• Higher cost than gasoline alternatives

• Poor diesel fuel quality in some regions

• Emissions & NVH are more challenging than for gasoline applications

light-duty diesel market potential in north americalight-duty diesel market potential in north...

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