lifetime prisoners in sweden- a comparative study of the three risk assessment instruments lsi-r,...
TRANSCRIPT
Lifetime prisoners in Sweden-A comparative study of the three risk assessment instruments LSI-R, VRAG and PCL-R
Ulrika Haggård
M.S.W, PhD
Changes in the legislation
In 2006 changed the legislation of converting lifetime sentence to time-fixed sentence
The factors accounted for in the decisions made by the Örebro court is:1. The crime committed leading to lifetime sentence2. Time spent in prison3. Misbehavior during imprisonment
4. Future plans 5. Risk of recidivism
Material and methodMaterial and method Inclusion criteria: Convicted to lifetime imprisonment between 1965-2007 (N=248)Inclusion criteria: Convicted to lifetime imprisonment between 1965-2007 (N=248)
Information was retrieved from:Information was retrieved from:- The correctional act The correctional act - Forensic psychiatric evaluations, Forensic psychiatric evaluations, - Risk assessments (Kumla), Risk assessments (Kumla), - The National register of crime ‘The National register of crime ‘
- Assessment with the VRAG, PCL-R and LSI-R was madeAssessment with the VRAG, PCL-R and LSI-R was made
Information of recidivism was retrieved from the National registered penal recordsInformation of recidivism was retrieved from the National registered penal records
- Intraclass correlation was used for interrater reliabilityIntraclass correlation was used for interrater reliability
- ROC-analysis was used for the comparison of validity between the risk instruments.ROC-analysis was used for the comparison of validity between the risk instruments.
LSI-R…
Why another risk assessment instrument?
LSI-R is based on the risk-need-responsibility theory
1.The LSI-R is mainly based on dynamic factors with focus on risk reduction actions and risk management.
2.Easy to use and without requirement of an academic education.
3.Less subjective4.Easy to understand
Reliability of the risk assessment instruments LSI-R, VRAG and PCL-R
InstrumentInstrument ICCICC Confidence Confidence intervalinterval
LSI-R (In)LSI-R (In) 0.910.91 0.05-0.980.05-0.98
VRAGVRAG 0.780.78 0.15-0.950.15-0.95
PCL-RPCL-R 0.680.68 0.24-0.920.24-0.92
Prediction of misconduct during Prediction of misconduct during imprisonment (AUC of ROC), n=242imprisonment (AUC of ROC), n=242
InstrumentInstrument Misconduct (>10)Misconduct (>10) Threat and violenceThreat and violence
LSI-R (In)LSI-R (In) 0.71 (0.64-0.78)0.71 (0.64-0.78) 0.65 (0.58-0.72)0.65 (0.58-0.72)
VRAGVRAG 0.70 (0.62-0.77)0.70 (0.62-0.77) 0.67 (0.60-0.74)0.67 (0.60-0.74)
PCL-RPCL-R 0.70 (0.68-0.77)0.70 (0.68-0.77) 0.69 (0.62-0.76)0.69 (0.62-0.76)
Recividism at follow-upRecividism at follow-up
57 of the prisoners had been released 57 of the prisoners had been released from prison. from prison.
35 % had recidivated in any crime 35 % had recidivated in any crime (convictions) (convictions)
9 % had recidivated in violent crimes.9 % had recidivated in violent crimes. 4 % had recidivated in sexual crimes.4 % had recidivated in sexual crimes.
Validity of the risk assessment instruments
Instruments AUC of ROC Confidence interval
LSI-R (ut) 0.80 0.67-0.93
PCL-R 0.78 0.64-0.91
VRAG 0.73 0.57-0.88
Conclusions
LSI-R is a dynamic and strait forward and use-friendly instrument
The reliability seems to be higher than the other instruments
The validity is in line with the other instruments
Needs more research for application in different settings and materials
Thank you for your attention!
Contact information:
Ulrika Haggård
Email: [email protected] eller [email protected]
Phone: +46 8 6071530 or +46 73 6596000