life on the edge: risk management and planning for … · buildex vancouver, feb. 25 th 2015....
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LIFE ON THE EDGE: RISK MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING FOR RESILIENCE
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 20158:00AM-9:30AM
MODERATOR:Deborah Carlson, Staff Lawyer, West Coast Environmental Law
SPEAKERS:Fiona Dercole, Section Manager, Public Safety, District of North Vancouver
Tamsin Lyle, Principal, Ebbwater ConsultingSarah Primeau, Landscape Architect/Landscape Ecologist, space2place design inc.
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Life on the Edge:Risk Management and Planning for ResilienceBUILDEX Vancouver, Feb. 25th 2015Tamsin Lyle, P.Eng | Principal | Ebbwater Consulting
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Floods Matter
Natural Disaster Occurrences in Canada 1900-2012 (Canadian Disaster Database)
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Floods Matter
Loss Estimate for Catastrophic Flooding in BC(ICLR and SwissRE 2010)
$7-$10 Bn
Flood Disaster Occurrences in Canada 1900-2012 (Canadian Disaster Database)
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In the US a 45% increase in spatial extent of the 100-Year floodplains is projected by the year 2100 (NFIP 2014).
Sea Level Rise:Floodplains Expand
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Our Changing HazardA moving target with multiple dimensions
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A Regional Perspective
Calculated using GeoBaseCanada TRIM datasets © Ebbwater
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Flood Impacts are Great
Economy:“Canada's GDP will be reduced by $2 billion as a direct result of the [Calgary] floods.” June 2013
Infrastructure: $6.1 Bn in direct losses from 2013 Southern
Alberta FloodsPeople:“15,000 Evacuated after Floods
in Dominican Republic” February 23 2015
Environment:“Hurricane Katrina leaves
legacy of industrial waste, raw sewage and oil spills” August
2005
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Case Study: City of VancouverShelter Needs
HazusCanada results for existing development conditions, and 1 m SLR with 500-Year storm
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Case Study: City of VancouverBuilding and Content Loss Distribution
HazusCanada results for existing development conditions, and 1 m SLR with 500-Year storm
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Case Study: City of VancouverBuilding Level Impacts
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Case Study: Lower MainlandTransportation Networks
Red River at Morris, 2011© Ebbwater
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Making a Plan to Reduce Impacts
Flood Risk
Planning
Identify
AssessManage
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Make Good DecisionsFocus on what matters
Values(economic, social,
environmental)
Reduce Hazard“Block the Water”
Reduce Exposure“Stop things you care about
getting wet”
Reduce Sensitivity“Reduce impact of getting
wet”
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High Level OptionsThe Basics
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Engineering Reduce the Hazard (Protect)
Armouring: Holding the Line(Clockwise: Ring Dike, Sea Barrier, Seawall, Superdike, Traditional dike)
Moderation: Slow the Erosion(Clockwise: Groins & Breakwaters, Rip-rap, Dune Construction, Mixed/natural erosion control)
Restoration: Replace what is destroyed (Land reclamation, beach nourishment, constructed wetlands)
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Building ControlsReduce Exposure or Sensitivity (Adapt)
Permanent ResistanceElevation Temporary Resistance Resilience
Dry Floodproofing Wet Floodproofing
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Things to Strive For• Plan for risk not hazard
• Consequences matter, people matter, the environment matters
• Embrace uncertainty• Strive for adaptive solutions that will work under many
climate and development futures• Avoid solutions that are single-minded or that remove
future options • Enable resilience
• Focus on recovery• Focus on the opportunities
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An argument to act now
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Good Things in the RegionYes, It’s tough to be first…but it can also be really fun.
Image sources: West Coast Environmental Law
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Life on the Edge:Risk Management and Planning for ResilienceBUILDEX Vancouver, Feb. 25th 2015Tamsin Lyle| [email protected] | @ebbwater