life and nuclear radiation - chernobyl and fukushima in perspective

27 June 2011 Bristol Cafe 1

Life and nuclear radiation

Chernobyl and Fukushima in perspective

Wade AllisonOxford University

..... to remove a barrier in the mind,a relic of the Cold War


2,000millionyrs ago

moderntimes

Earth

hot with carbon dioxide

(like Venustoday)

coolwith oxygen

Storing sunlight energy

carbon dioxide

photosynthesis sun light

plantlife

oxygen fossil fuel

Discharging stored sunlight energy

Plant\fossil fuel carbon dioxide

fire

oxygen released energy


Fire is dangerous - but we got the wrong danger!


accelerated timescale 200X 8000X

CO2 in the atmosphere is rising v. fast


Nuclear power?

waste quantity: a million times less than fossil fuel

waste containment: not released like fossil fuel

fuel supplies: from Aus/Can, not Middle East/Russia like oil/gas

climate effect: none, unlike all fossil fuel

output: high, 24/7, anywhere, any weather, unlike wind/wave/tide/sun

technology: safe, available and known, (unlike carbon capture)

impact: compact (unlike windfarms)

accidents to humans: very unusual, does not spread like fire


?Only problem? Fear of radiation! Why?


Influences of nuclear technology

.

What is the effect of radiation on life?Both data and understanding.

Risk assessment.Public acceptance.Safety regulations.Working practices.

Waste. Costs.

Terrorists, Rogue states.

Dirty bomb threats.Nuclear blackmail

First

Second

And finally


Two different questions - As Low As Reasonably Achievable ALARA

- As High as Relatively Safe AHARS

1000 X

Explanation in SIMPLE languageand a few important details

Ionising Radiation safety single slide summary


Radiation units (slightly simplified)

Radiation dose. milli-sievert (mSv) Radiation dose rate. mSv per year, month etc

Natural background dose rate (variable)

2.5 mSv per year

Recommended environmental dose rate limit

additional 1.0 mSv per year


Mortality of Chernobyl firefighters

above 4,000 mSv 27/42 died in a few weeks Acute Radiation Syndromebelow 4,000 mSv 1/195 died.(the curve is for laboratory rats, shifted a little)


tumour fractions total dose interval

bladder 30 x 2000 mSv 60000 mSv 5 times a week

breast 16 x 2750 mSv 42500 mSv 5 times a week

arm pit 15 x 2700 mSv 40000 mSv 5 times a week

glioma 30 x 2000 mSv 60000 mSv 5 times a week

cervical 25 x 1800 mSv 45000 mSv 5 times a week

lung 36 x 1800 mSv 54000 mSv over 12 days

prostate 39 x 2000 mSv 78000 mSv 5 times a week

[Doses actually given in gray where 1000 mSv = 1 gray, for gammas.]

Radiotherapy doses (tumour) recommended by Royal College of Radiologists


Dose contours for prostate radiotherapy plan (section)97% 90% 70% 50% (heavy) 30%

Healthy tissue receives 50% dose relative to tumour

[From an image by kind permission of Medical Physics and Engineering, Oxford Radcliffe Hospitals NHS Trust]


a) no feedback/repair = linearity b) stabilising feedback, up to a limit = non-linearitylike a bridge in the wind...


Hiroshima & Nagasaki

Total population 429000 100.00%Known killed or died 1945-1950103000 24.01%Lost or died 1945-1950 43000 10.02%Survived to 1950 283000 65.97% for whom dose known 86955Died of cancer 1950-2000 32057 7.47%

1865 0.44%Died of radiation-induced cancer 1950-2000

Early death

Lost

Cancer death 1950-2000

Radiation induced cancer 1950-2000

Survived to 1950and did notdie ofcancerbefore 2000


Dose range survivor solid cancer survivor deaths1950-2000 extra riskmSv number actual expected per 1000

less than 5 38507 4270 4282 -2.0 to 1.4

5 to 100 29960 3387 3313 0.0 to 3.5

100 to 200 5949 732 691 3.5 to 12.5

200 to 500 6380 815 736 9 to 18

500 to 1000 3426 483 378 25 to 37

1000 to 2000 1764 326 191 63 to 83

above 2000 625 114 56 72 to 108

all 86611 10127 9647 5.0 to 5.2

Solid cancer deaths of survivors with measured doses


Dose range survivor leukaemia survivor deaths1950-2000 extra riskmSv number actual expected per 1000

less than 5 37407 92 84.9 -0.1 to 0.5

5 to 100 30387 69 72.1 -0.4 to 0.2

100 to 200 5841 14 14.5 -0.7 to 0.6

200 to 500 6304 27 15.6 1.0 to 2.6

500 to 1000 3963 20 9.5 3.8 to 6.6

1000 to 2000 1972 39 4.9 14 to 20

above 2000 737 25 1.6 25 to 39

all 86955 296 203 0.9 to 1.3

Leukaemia deaths of survivors with measured doses


Graphics, public persuasion and Florence Nightingale


A safe monthly radiation dose? By area

Tumour therapy> 40,000

mSv per month

Healthy tissuetherapy > 20,000 mSv per month

Suggested safe level 100 mSv per month, [conservative by a factor 200]

Sellafield waste storage hall 24/7, 1 mSv per month, [or 1 micro Sv per hr]

International public “safe” level 0.1 mSv per month, [or 1 mSv per yr]

100 mSv max single dose100 mSv max in any month

5000 mSv max lifelong

So change for public by factor 1000,As High As Relatively Safe (AHARS), instead of

As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA)

Suggested new safety levels:


Graphics on risk in the making!


luminous watches and dials from 1917 based on radium paint

Bone cancer usually 1/400. Evidence for threshold: (Rowland 1997)1339 painters with less than 10,000mGy, 0 cases [3 expected] 191 painters with more than 10,000mGy, 46 cases. [<1 expected]


Fukushima, the decay

heat

....it continues to getting

ever smaller....

the radioactivity

of spent fuel


http://www.msm.cam.ac.uk/teaching/partIII/courseM17/Lecture_9.pdf

27 June 2011 Bristol Cafe 23100 mSv per month = 138 microsievert per hour


[Abstract of the article]

[signed]


Lessons from FukushimaRef: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/fukushima_accident_inf129.html

Life in unstable regions. Inhabitants beware!

Current reactor designs are safe. Build!

Education and accessible public knowledge!

The precautionary principle can kill. Relax international radiation safety levels (AHARS)

Overdue political decision to reprocess “used” fuel, then bury fission waste. Easy!

Lesser technical developments on decay heat and danger of chemical fire

Fukushima Daichii reactor clearance in decades

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/fukushima_accident_inf129.html


Hope for 21st century problems, ONLY IF we re-assess 20th century worries. Requires trust, thought, education and reform.

So --welcome and respect radiation cures many 1000s of cancers every year; educate, tell people about radiation in simple words, radiation is not unimaginably dangerous;

regulate for actual danger, not fear based on unquantified aversion, affecting solutions to waste and decommissioning;

new nuclear power for the sake of the environment electricity, desalination, food irradiation;

geological, sociological, reactor stability.

Read book and http://www.radiationandreason.com


Japan's nuclear evacuees shunned over health fears

KITAKAMI, Japan (AFP) – People fleeing Japan's crippled nuclear plant are being turned away from evacuation centres because of unfounded fears they might contaminate others with radiation.Those made homeless by the emergency at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi atomic plant need local government-issued certificates proving they are not contaminated before they are allowed to step foot inside the centres.Screening facilities set up to soothe concerns over radiation have become checkpoints that determine access to a place to sleep and -- in at least one case -- healthcare, even though experts say evacuees pose no risk to others.."Unless they are plant workers, ordinary people aren't dangerous," said Kosuke Yamagishi of Fukushima prefecture's medical services division. "People are simply over-reacting, and sadly this could lead to discrimination," he told AFP.An eight-year-old girl from Minamisoma was refused treatment for a skin condition in a hospital in Fukushima city because she did not have a screening certificate, the Mainichi daily reported. The girl's father, Takayuki Okamura told the paper: "I am worried already with my life as an evacuee. It was a real shock to have the appointment refused."But those running evacuation centres are unapologetic.

life and nuclear radiation - chernobyl and fukushima in perspective

Education

msv max lifelong

effect of radiation

safe monthly radiation

radiation units

fear of radiation

simplified radiation

nuclear radiation chernobyl

yr100 msv max single