leveraging investment in broadband infrastructure: rwanda &...
TRANSCRIPT
LeveragingInvestmentinBroadbandInfrastructure:
Rwanda&SenegalMichaelMinges
UN-OHRLLSConsultant
Dakar,1March2017
Contents
• Broadband• Countrycontext• Infrastructure• Investment• Impact• Demand• Conclusions
WHYBROADBAND
Whybroadband?
• Telemedicine• Remotediagnosis• Electronicrecords
• EnhancedinternalcommunicaRons
• Onlineservicedelivery
• Schoolnetworking• Digitalcontent
• Newdigitaloutlets
• NaRonalintegraRon• Employment
Whatisbroadband?
• 24/7high-speedInternetaccess• NouniversallyagreeddefiniRonofspeed
CONTEXT
“AnetworkconnecRonthatisalwayson,availableathome,atworkandonthemove,thatdeliversprogressivelyhigher
bandwidthsthatarecapableofsupporRnginnovaRveandinteracRvecontentand
services,astoenhancetheuser-experience.”
Speeds4Mbps 10Mbps 20Mbps 50Mbps
MulR–pointvideoconferencing
NotAdequate
Adequate Adequate Adequate
Downloadhigh–definiRonvideo
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
Adequate HighlyAdequate
Serverbackup(oneterabytecapacity)
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
HighlyAdequate
Distancelearning
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
HighlyAdequate
Telemedicine NotAdequate
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
HighlyAdequate
CONTEXT
COUNTRYCONTEXT
Landarea:24,580km2
PopulaRon:12mPopulaRondensity:471/km2GDPpercapita:US$697
Landarea:192,530km2PopulaRon:15mPopulaRondensity:79/km2GDPpercapita:US$900
Source:ColumbiaUniversity,WorldBank(2015).
Timeline
1997 1998 1999 2001 2006 2009 2011 2012 2013
PrivaRzed Listed
PrivaRzed Insolvent
Rwandatel• PrivaRzedtwice• Nolongerexists
Significantforeigninvestment(France,SouthAfrica,Luxembourg,US,Libya,Sudan,India,SouthKorea)
Sonatel• BiggestcompanyinSenegal• Largestcompanyonregionalstock
exchange• 3overseassubsidiaries
InternetmarketshareSeptember2016
12organizaRonswithASNs 4organizaRonswithASNs
Orange65%
Tigo26%
Expresso9%
Senegal
Source:ARTP.
MTN40%
Tigo38%
Airtel22%
Others0.2%
Rwanda
Source:R
URA
.
BROADBANDINFRASTRUCTURE
Firstmile:InternaRonalbandwidth
SaoTome $2,500Kenya $287Madagascar $844Burundi $300Rwanda $125
InternaDonalconnecDvitywholesaleprices(US$perMb/spermonth),2014
Source:W
orldBank.
MiddleMile:NaRonalbackbone
InternetExchangePoints(IXPs)TowardsasustainableInternetecosystem
• Launchedinmid2004• ManagedbyRICTAwith11parRcipantsinlate2016
• Trafficrose25%in2016
• Subjectofdiscussionforseveralyears
• StatutesadoptedinNovember2015
• SlatedtolaunchsoonwithADIEasheadofAdministraRveCouncil
Publicandprivatedatacentersinbothcountries
Lastmile
0102030405060708090100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Rwanda3Gcoverage(%ofpopulaDon)
Source:RURA,Sonatel,esRmates.
0102030405060708090100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Senegal(3Gcoverage,%ofpopulaDon)
Broadbandspeed3G+
ê4.3Mbpsé1.9Mbps ê4.9Mbpsé1.5Mbps
Twodifferentpathsto4G• Rwanda:PPPwholesalemodel• Publicprivatepartnership
(PPP)establishedtodeploy4G(KTRwandaNetwork(KTRN))in2013
• KTRNiswholesalersellingcapacitytoretailers(mobileoperators&ISPs).
• KTtoinvestUS$140millionwhilegovernmentprovidedfiberassets&frequencies
• Launchedin2014• Status:14Gwholesalerand9
retailers
• Senegal:AucRonmodel• Operatorsallowedtotest
(2013-2015)• Tenderlate2015
– ReservepriceFCFA30billion(US$50million)
– Nobids• Sonatelextendedlicensefor
17yearsincluding4GauthorizaRoninJuly2016– LicensefeeCFA100billionof
which4GfrequencieswereFCFA32billion($54million)
• StatusFebruary2017:14Gprovider
4Gdeployment
0
29
47
95
0102030405060708090100
2014 2015 2016 2017
4GpopulaDoncoverage,Rwanda
Source:RURA.
70
90
0102030405060708090100
2020 2025
4GpopulaDoncoverage,Senegal(perSonatellicenseterms)
3years
9years
Source:MinistereDesPostesEtDesTelecommunicaRons.
• ConsorRumduServiceUniversel(CSU)awardedUniversalServicelicenseawardedthroughapublicbidin2009
• Includes5.8GHz&2.4GHzfrequency• Launched2013
•Landarea:29,445km2 •PopulaDon(2013Census):541,032 •Density:18/km2
MATAM
INVESTMENT
Measuringinvestment
Tower:$100BaseStaRon:$100
① Infrastructuresharing② Licensefees③ Inprivatemarket,needstomakebusinesssense
$300investment $400investment
Top10privateparRcipaRonininfrastructureprojects
RWANDAProject
Investment(US$m)
AkanyaruValleyPowerProject 320
MTNRwanda 289
MillicomRwanda 187
KivuWat 142
Rwandatel–2ndDivesRture 100
KibuyePower1 76
Agahozo-ShalomPVSolarPlant 24
Rwandatel-FirstDivesRture 20
GisenyiMethaneGasPlant 16
Aggreko10MWPowerStaRon 2
TOTAL 1,176
ICT 596
ICT(%) 51%
SENEGALProject
Investment(US$m)
OrangeSonatel 2,270
BlaiseDiagneInternaRonalAirport 730
MillicomSenegal 538
SenegalThermalFacility 344
DakarDiamniadioTollRoad 264
SudatelSenegal 260
Dakar-DiamniadioTollRoadExtension 173
TobeneIPP 165
DakarSeaport 134
DakarPortTerminal 132
TOTAL 5,010
ICT 3,068
ICT(%) 61%Source:W
orldBank,Priv
ateParRcipaRo
ninInfrastructureDatabase.
Telecominvestmenttrends
Rwanda
2.9%
2.4%
3.6%
5.8%
4.3%
9.0%
3.6%
1.3%
1.5%
2.0%
3.2%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
US$m As%ofGFCF
Senegal
Note:GFCF=GrossFixedCapitalFormaRon.PricesincurrentUS$.Excludinggovernmentinvestments&licensefees.Source:AdaptedfromRURA,WorldBank,newsreports.
4.8%
3.5%
5.5%
4.9%
4.9%
8.2%
8.7%
8.3%
12.4%
8.7%
7.7%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
US$m As%ofGFCF
InvestmentcomposiRonSonatelexample
• Mobile– Upgradingto3G/LTE– Extendingcoverage– Improvingquality
• Network– TransformingtoIP
• Other– Datacenter&dataarchival– Land,buildings&vehicles– UpdaRnginformaRonsystems
Mobile54%
Network13%
Other33%
Sonatelinvestmentareas,2015
Totalinvestment:CFA69b(US$117m)
Source:AdaptedfromSonatelAnnualReport2015.
Investmentsources
• Foreigninvestor(generallyonlyiniRally)• Bankloans• Suppliercredits• Cashflow
ECONOMICIMPACTS
Directeconomicimpact
Rwanda
$153 $153$202 $190 $210 $232
2.5% 2.4%
3.0% 2.8%3.1%
3.3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Infocommvalueadded(US$m)
As%ofGDP
Senegal
$984 $1,051$1,026$1,157$1,179$1,018
10.0% 10.0% 10.1%10.6% 10.4% 10.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Telecom&postsvalueadded(US$m)
As%ofGDP
Note:Constantprices.Source:AdaptedfromANSD&NISR.
Contributed~10%ayeartoGDPp.p.growthContributed~5%ayeartoGDPp.p.growth
Indirectimpact
Katz,RaulL.andKoutroumpis,Pantelis,“TheEconomicImpactofTelecommunicaRonsinSenegal”.Communica)ons&Strategies,No.86,2ndQuarter2012,pp.21-42.AvailableatSSRN:htps://ssrn.com/abstract=2270502
• “Accordingtothemodel,thereissRllnosignificanteffectfromtheadopRonofbroadbandinSenegal”
• “…suggestsanannualimpactfromeach1%incrementofmobilepenetraRontocontributeslightlymorethan0.05%onGDP”
SECTORIMPACTS
LesjeunesSénégalaisàl'assautdeYouTube
htp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20160113-senegal-youtube-videos-buzz-sandale-man
VéritableespacedecréaRon,laplateformevidéoquioccupe20%delabandepassanteauSénégalesttrèsappréciéedesjeunesquis'ensaisissentpourproduireducontenu.
Government
Health
FinancialinclusionMobilemoney
Rwanda Senegal
55
1320.8
2.5
2013 2014
AcRveaccountsper1,000adults
TransacRonvalue(%ofGDP)
Source:IMFFinancialAccessSurvey
68 140 263 349 3690.2
3.6
6.8
12.8
18.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AcRveaccountsper1,000adults
TransacRonvalue(%ofGDP)
DEMAND
“SignificantlyincreaseaccesstoinformaRonandcommunicaRonstechnologyandstrivetoprovide
universalandaffordableaccesstotheInternetinleastdevelopedcountriesby2020”
—SustainableDevelopmentGoal9.C
2015 Rwanda Senegal
2Gcoverage(%ofpopulaRon) 99.9 92
3Gcoverage(%ofpopulaRon) 92 80
Mobilephone(%households) 60 93
Electricity(%households) 23 61Source:RURA,Sonatel&NISR,ANSD.
Affordability
Rwanda Senegal
$53
$8.45
59%
11.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2011 2017
Cheapestmonthlymobiledataplan(Orange,US$)
As%ofGDPpercapita
$27 $2.8
59%
4.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2010 2016
Permonth(US$)
As%ofpercapitaGDP
Affordabilitycont.
• Existenceofdailyandweeklyplansenhanceaffordability
• AffordabilitymoretodowithquanRtyconsumed
• Smartphonecostisabarrier
Rwanda:71%
Age15+2012Census
Senegal:45%
Age10+2013Census
Literacy
UsageesRmateInternetusers,age15+,Feb.2017
9%
31%
2%
10%
11%
41%
Rwanda Senegal
UseFacebook Don'tuseFacebook Internetusers
Note:DerivedfromnumberofFacebookusersandraRoofsocialnetworkuserstoInternetusersinSenegalandEastAfrica(forRwanda).Source:AdaptedfromFacebook&PewResearchCenter.
2010:1.4%
2010:6.1%
Firmshavingownwebsite(%)
Source:WorldBank,EnterpriseSurveys
0102030405060708090100
Senegal(2014)
SSA World
Small(5-19) Medium(20-99)
Large(100+)
0102030405060708090100
Rwanda(2011)
SSA World
Small(5-19) Medium(20-99)
Large(100+)
Awareness
• Rwanda:AccordingtoEICV4,only7.1%ofthepopulaRonagedtenyearsandolderwascomputerliteratein2014
AtracRvenessTopsites,February2017
Rwanda
SiteDailyTimeonSite
1 Google.com 8:58
2 Google.rw 6:57
3 Youtube.com 9:35
4 Yahoo.com 4:30
5 Igihe.com 11:35
6 Inyarwanda.com 9:42
7 Ukwezi.com 7:37
8 Umuryango.rw 11:54
9 Ask.com 2:49
10 Wikipedia.org 4:28
SenegalSite DailyTimeon
Site
1 Youtube.com 9:40
2 Google.sn 7:04
3 Google.com 9:02
4 Seneweb.com 11:15
5 Senego.com 11:11
6 Yahoo.com 4:32
7 Leral.net 7:27
8 Dakaractu.com 5:18
9 Buzzsenegal.com 5:03
10 Live.com 4:28
Source:Alexa.
allcountriesshouldhaveaNBPorstrategyorincludebroadbandintheirUASDefiniRon
targetstoachieveby2015
entry-levelbroadbandservicesshouldbemadeaffordable(<5%monthlyGNIpercapita)
40%ofhouseholdsindevelopingcountriesshouldhaveInternetaccess
InternetuserpenetraRonshouldreach50%indevelopingcountriesand15%inLDCs
achievinggenderequalityinaccesstobroadbandby2020
“EnsuringthatciRzen,businessesandgovernmentareconnectedtobroadbandandaffordablyso”.
«En2025,lenumériquepourtousetpourtouslesusagesauSénégalavecunsecteurprivédynamiqueetinnovantdansunécosystèmeperformant».
Government• 95%oftransacRonsoccurringonline
Economy• 100,000jobs• 100largetechcompanies
EducaRon• BroadbandconnecRvitytoallschools
Government• 40%ofadministraRveservicesonline
• Reducegovernmentcostsby60-70%
Economy• 30,500digitaljobs• 500newtechSMEs
EducaRon• 50%ofschoolsconnected&equipped
RWANDAUS$519mEconomicimpact
èUS$1.2b
SENEGALUS$400mEconomicimpact
èUS$0.5b
• ~US$onebillion• CarnegieMellonUniversityofthe
UnitedStatesisoneofthecoreanchorinsRtuRonsandthefirstphaseofitscampusisscheduledforcompleRonin2017.
• ConstrucRonwillconRnueupto2022withaddiRonaleducaRonalandtechcompanytenants.– 4,500highlyskilledICTjobsby2022– ExportearningsuptoanesRmated
US$180millionby2022.– Top10companiesgeneraRngcombined
annualrevenuesof$500millionby2025;
• ~Euro70millionfromAfricanDevelopmentBankapprovedin2015
• ConstrucRonslatedforcompleRonin2019– 65,000directjobsby2025– US$200millioninFDI
KIGALIINNOVATIONCITY SENEGALDIGITALTECHNOLOGYPARK(“DIAMNIADIOVALLEY”
Conclusions• Steadygrowthinbroadbandnetworks• RwandaaheadinbroadbandcoveragebutSenegalleadsin
usageanddirecteconomicimpact• Demandhasnotmatchedsupply('IfYouBuildIt,TheyWill
Come’?)• Mostimpactsare“2G”• Operatorsmayfinditdifficulttosustaininvestmentsin
lightof“compeRRon”fromOvertheTop(OTT)applicaRons(e.g.,Skype,Viber,Whatapp,etc.)
• Openaccess,infrastructuresharingandcost-basedwholesaleprovisioncanlowerinvestmentrequirements
• Theissueoflicensefees
Governmentdemandsideinvestments
• EducaRon• Digitalliteracy• Techstartups• SMEs
Merci
Thankyou
Dieureudieuf