lesson 1 odot simple models. simple models learning outcomes as part of a group, develop conceptual...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lesson 1 ODOTSimple Models
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Simple Models
Learning Outcomes
• As part of a group, develop conceptual models of REC, stressors, and a highway project
• Identify which information about the past is relevant to analysis under NEPA
• Recognize how different uses of reasonably foreseeable future actions enhances model development
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Simple Models
• Variable:• A dependent or independent pattern or process• Can interact with/feed back to other variables • Subject to change or variability
• Stressor:• An independent variable that influences the
“behavior” or response of a dependent variable; • Often a driver, limiting factor, or constraint
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Y = f(X1, X2, X3)trends and condition of REC
is a function of stressors
Stressor X2
Stressor X2
Stressor X3
Stressor X3
Stressor X1
Stressor X1
RECY
RECY
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Simple Models y = f(x) = f(x) = y
Independent Variable:• X• Stressor• Driver• Limiting Factor
Dependent Variable• Y• REC
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Two-Part Analytic Question
To inform decisions, environmental impact analyses must be broken into two-parts:
• What effect does the action have on specific resources?
• i.e., action-focused• What does that effect mean from the
perspective of the resource itself?• i.e., resource-focused
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Simple ModelsAction-Focused
Why model?
• Identify REC, drivers, trends, and sustainability
• Identify the range of interactions with project
• Transparent process for focusing on potentially significant interactions for analysis
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Simple ModelsResource-Focused
Why Model?
• Characterize REC’s response to change and capacity to withstand stress
• Characterize the stressors, drivers, or limiting factors affecting REC sustainability thresholds
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Simple ModelsResource-Focused
Why Model?
• What are the effects of other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions on the REC?
• Additive, countervailing, and synergistic effects
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Simple Models
Why Model?
• Define a baseline condition for the REC
• Identify the important interactions between REC and proposed action
• Transparent evaluation of mitigation options
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Great Streets Pedestrian LOS
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Simple ModelsScoping REC’s
• HydrologySurface, Groundwater, Soil water
• AirAir Quality, Visibility
• BiotaRepresentative, Unique, Imperiled
Species and Communities; Habitats
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Simple ModelsScoping REC’s
• Socioeconomics• Education Services • Traffic and Transportation• Human Health • Public and Emergency Services• Community Cohesion• Economic Stability
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Simple ModelsScoping REC’s
• Noise ImpactsHumans, Wildlife, Aesthetic
• Visual ImpactsViewsheds, Aesthetics,
• Cultural ImpactsArcheological, Historical, Architectural
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Si
mple
Models
Deconstructing the
Action
Deconstructing Actions into their constituent elements makes it easier to
– Identify the various aspects of Actions that have implications for Resources of Interest– Assess the effects of complex Actions on Resources of Interest– Retrieve information on their effects– Helps provide a more complete descriptions of action
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Si
mple
Models
Deconstructing the
Action
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Simple ModelsUse in EIA
• Deconstruct the issues
• Identify informative affected stressors
• Logical progression (serial exposure - response risk profiles)
• Consider feedbacks and adjustments
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Simple ModelsSpace and Time
• Key is the usefulness of the information
• Scales should vary by focus, REC, project location, and project type
• Know how data is used in analysis so that model is helpful
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Simple ModelsSpatial Scale
• Varies depends on focus, REC, project location, and type
• Resource-Focused may be larger than area of Action-Focused impacts– Political geographic boundaries, – Commute-shed boundaries, – Growth boundaries and service limits,– Watershed and habitat boundaries
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Simple ModelsIntegrating RFFAs
• Other transportation projects …• … airport, freight, and transit • Other Federal agency activities • … approved NEPA documents or
projects under study • Activities in approved land use and
development plans• Major private projects• Reasonably foreseeable
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Temporal Context
• Varies depends on focus, REC, project location, and type
• Resource-Focused may be longer than that of Action-Focused impacts– Different levels of certainty apply– Info on system behavior versus info on chain
of events
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Temporal Context
PresentPast Future
Project Impacts
Indirect Impacts
Most Probable State of system represented by REC
Past, present and future stressors
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Temporal ContextPast, Present, and Future?
Remember the goal of the analysis …• Better decisions (information about trade-
offs), and inform public;• Focus effort on information that aids the
analysis;• Two-part EIA question means two sets of
information about past, present, and future
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Temporal ContextReasonably Foreseeable
Action-Focused More than already approved projects, but not so
far as mere speculative projects Causal relationship/connectedness Logical Observed patterns in similar situations Document assumptions and “boundaries”; avoid
arbitrary decisions
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Temporal ContextReasonably Foreseeable
Resource-Focused Legacy, concurrent, and projected future
behavior of REC Stressors affecting limiting factors, resiliency Actions that will change limiting factors Logical Document assumptions and “boundaries”; avoid
arbitrary decisions
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Temporal ContextReasonably Foreseeable
• YES– Predict and forecast – Probable – Likely– Some uncertainty is inherent and inevitable
• NO – Speculation– Contemplation– Conjecture – Possible
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Temporal ContextPast
• ... CEQ’s NEPA regulations [require] a concise description of the identifiable present effects of past actions to the extent that they are relevant and useful in analyzing [RFFA’s]
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Temporal Context Past
• … look for present effects if past actions that are …relevant and useful because they have a significant cause-and-effect relationship with the direct and indirect effects of the proposal for agency actions
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Temporal Context Past
• …simply because information about past actions may be available … does not mean that it is relevant and necessary to inform decisionmaking.
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Simple ModelsREC model Exercise
• Identify the REC
• Identify the most obvious stressors
• Establish initial spatial and temporal bounds for REC
• Tentatively define sustainability
• Use Posterboard to Report
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Simple Models
Learning Outcomes
• As part of a group, develop conceptual models of three REC’s and one highway project
• Identify which information about the past is relevant to analysis under NEPA
• Recognize how different uses of reasonably foreseeable future actions enhances model development
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Simple Models
True of False
• An independent variable is itself dependent on independent variables of another order.
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Simple Models
True of False
• Well written and researched information about either immediately post-glacial or pre-European contact natural habitats should always be used when putting trends and condition in context.
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Simple Models
True or False
• Reasonably foreseeable future actions are never the same for action-focused and resource-focused effects analyses?
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Simple Models
Which quadrant (1, 2, 3, or 4) would you normally expect to be the source of RFFA?
Relevant to decision
Not relevant
Speculation Near certainty43
1 2