lendit 2016 - amazon s3...no part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or...
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LendIt 2016
Michele Raneri
April 2016
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Experian Confidential.
© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Confidential.
Topics to cover OML Trends
Deep Dive into OML Loans
Industry Best Practices
2
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Online Marketplace Lending
So what
online marketplace IS
lending?
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OML Industry
Unsecured Personal
Loans
Education Loans
Real Estate
Small Business
Loans Auto Loans
Lines of Credit
Rentals/ Leases
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5 © 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Confidential.
© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Confidential.
Topics to cover OML Trends
Deep Dive into OML Loans
Industry Best Practices
5
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Experian Public.
Number of loans originations
1.8
3.8
8.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Personal Secured Personal Unsecured Student
Mil
lio
ns
Q3 2006 Q3 2009 Q3 2012 Q3 2015
28% over
Dec 2006
-12% down
from Dec 2006
7% over
Dec 2006
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Average balances
$7,949
$15,747
$10,372
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
Unsecured Personal Loans Secured Personal Loans OML Loans
Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015
4% over
Dec 2011
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Experian Public.
VantageScore® 3.0 at origination
637 645
655
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
Unsecured Personal Loans Secured Personal Loans OML Loans
Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Higher than consumers
who originate unsecured / secured loans Avg. US VantageScore 3.0: 671
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Experian Public.
Risk Levels at Origination
34%
29%
42%
26% 27%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Unsecured Personal Loans Secured Personal Loans OML Loans
Super Prime Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep Subprime
Avg. VantageScore 3.0:
637
Avg. VantageScore 3.0:
645 Avg. VantageScore 3.0:
655
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Experian Public.
Interest rates
Secured
Loans
Unsecured
Loans
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
5.0% 7.3%
10.4% 12.8%
Revolving
Bankcard
10.6% 19.4%
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Trendview Segments – Consumer Behaviors
Consolidator Rate Surfer Revolver Transactor Mixed
Consumer
transfers
multiple
balances to
one loan
product
Consumer
balance
transfers
debt from
one product
to another
Consumer
carries a
balance from
month to
month
M1 M2
$$
Consumer
pays off the
entire
or majority of
the balance
every month
M1 M2
Consumer
exhibits
transactor as
well as
revolver
behavior
REVOLVER/
TRANSACTOR
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Co
ns
olid
ato
r
Ra
te S
urf
er
Re
vo
lver
Tra
ns
acto
r
Mix
ed
Co
ns
olid
ato
r
Ra
te S
urf
er
Re
vo
lver
Tra
ns
acto
r
Mix
ed
Co
ns
olid
ato
r
Ra
te S
urf
er
Re
vo
lver
Tra
ns
acto
r
Mix
ed
Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015
Trend ViewSM segments
12
Unsecured loans Secured loans OML loans
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13 © 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Confidential.
© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Confidential.
Topics to cover OML Trends
Deep Dive into OML Loans
Industry Best Practices
13
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-91%
to
lo
w
-81%
to
-9
0%
2
-71%
to
-8
0%
2
-61%
to
-7
0%
2
-51%
to
-6
0%
-41%
to
-5
0%
-31%
to
-4
0%
-21%
to
-3
0%
-11%
to
-2
0%
-1%
to
-10%
0%
1%
to
10%
11%
to
20%
21%
to
30%
31%
to
40%
41%
to
50%
51%
to
60%
61%
to
70%
71%
to
80%
81%
to
90%
91%
to
hig
h
Correlation with Revolving Balances
Percentage of consumers with change
in revolving balance after OML loan origination
Revolving balance
went down more
than 10% for:
23%
consumers
Revolving balance
went up more than
10% for:
46%
consumers
14
32%
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Comparison of Loan Performance
Dec‘ 2015
Dec 2014
Performance for the trades (12 months) New Originations
85%
2% 1% 1%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
current 30 60 90 120+
Unsecured Loans
89%
3% 1% 1% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
current 30 60 90 120+
Secured Loans
85%
2% 2% 2%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current 30 60 90 120+
OML Loans
13% 8% 13%
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Experian Public.
Who’s a typical OML borrower?
OML BORROWER CREDIT ACTIVE CONSUMER
55%
VantageScore 3.0
= 626 VantageScore 3.0
= 687
REV UTILIZATION
REV BALANCES
$9.9K
ACCOUNTS BANKCARD
5 NEW BANKCARD
1 INSTALLMENT
3
DELINQUENCIES
ON ANY
ACCOUNT
2.1 (Currently 30+ DPD)
0.9 (60+)
31%
$5.3K
BANKCARD
3 NEW BANKCARD
0.3 INSTALLMENT
1
0.7 (Currently 30+ DPD)
0.3 (60+)
*at least 1 open trade or inquiry
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Who’s a typical OML borrower?
OML BORROWER
4%
21%
43%
30%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%Age of
Borrower
45 yrs
CREDIT ACTIVE CONSUMER
2%
35%
25%
19% 18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%Income
$74K
9%
19%
26%
33%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%Age of
Borrower
49 yrs
5%
30%
20% 19%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%Income
$87K
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© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Confidential.
Topics to cover OML Trends
Deep Dive into OML Loans
Industry Best Practices
18
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“Not instead of ..”
“…But Complementary to”
Where the industry is heading
Beginning to attract a lot of lenders
Traditional lenders mimicking OML Lenders
Risk evaluation including more data
Application data
Small business data
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Industry Best Practices
Consumer is in the driver’s
seat
No firm offer of credit
Offers ability to screen
consumers with no affect on
their credit
Under 21 ok for credit card
Credit and/or non-credit
options for multiple product
types
Prequalification
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Sophisticated Analytics
Risk models with segmentation
Industry specific models and attributes
Business Intelligence
Peer Benchmarking
Custom models
Optimization
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Experian Confidential.
© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Confidential.
Topics covered OML Trends
Deep Dive into OML Loans
Industry Best Practices
22
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Internal Use
For additional information: [email protected] Twitter Handle: MLRaneri