legislation to reconcile energy policy with action on global warming: need and prospects
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Legislation to Reconcile Energy Policy with Action on Global Warming: Need and Prospects. Robert M. Simon Democratic Staff Director Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Global Surface Temperatures Have Greatly Increased Since the 1800s. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Legislation to ReconcileEnergy Policy with
Action on Global Warming: Need and Prospects
Robert M. SimonDemocratic Staff Director
Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
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Global Surface Temperatures Have Greatly Increased Since the 1800s
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Global Surface Warming Has Been Greatest in Polar Regions – In Agreement with Global Warming Model
Predictions
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The Oceans Have Warmed At All Levels Over the Past 50 Years
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Polar Ice Caps Have Shrunk
Dramatically from 1979 to 2003
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Power Dissipation by Atlantic Hurricanes Has DoubledOver the Past 30 Years
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Recent Increases in Global Temperature Cannot Be Ascribed to Increases in the Sun’s Output – As Some
“Climate Skeptics” Have Claimed
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Increased Emission of Human-Generated GHGs Is the Consensus Explanation Among Scientists
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National Academy of Sciences (2002):Abrupt Climate Changes Are Not Only Possible, But Likely
• “Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed.”
• “Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system was being forced to change rapidly.”
• “Greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the Earth may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events.”
• Possible non-linear responses to global warming:– Changed ocean circulation -- Rapid glacier melting– Changed patterns of rainfall/drought– Decline in forest health
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Percent of Public Saying Global Warming Is a "Very Serious" Problem
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1998 2000 2003 2005
Year
Perc
en
t R
esp
on
se
U.S.
Canada
U.K.
France
Germany
Source: GlobeScan Presentation to G8+5 Legislators Forum, 6 December 2005
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Changed Political Landscape in the U.S. Senate
2005 Senate Resolution (Adopted 53-46)“It is the sense of the Senate that Congress should enact
a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions at a rate and in a manner that—
“(1) will not significantly harm the United States economy; and
“(2) will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major trading partners and key contributors to global emissions.”
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Climate Change Conference:Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?
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Climate Change Conference:Emerging Answers to Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?– Regulation should address emissions economy-wide and not target only
one sector
– It might be most efficient administratively, as well as fairest to all sectors, to put the point of compliance “upstream” of major carbon users.
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Climate Change Conference:Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?
• Should some entities receive allocations of allowances? If so, which entities and why?
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Climate Change Conference:Emerging Answers to Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?
• Should some entities receive allocations of allowances? If so, which entities and why?
– The main goal of an allocation system would be to ease the transition into a rational and fair system, and to provide some relief to existing infrastructure for the balance of its capital life.
– A good allocation system signals the desired future direction for technology and gives an incentive to start implementing those technologies now.
– Some allocations should go to important actors who will experience additional costs due to the program, and not just those who must turn in allowances.
– Even a good allocation system will be imperfect, given the diversity of industrial actors.
– The corollary of this is that allocations should diminish over time to zero.
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Climate Change Conference:Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?
• Should some entities receive allocations of allowances? If so, which entities and why?
• Should a U.S. GHG cap-and-trade system interface with other cap-and-trade systems (e.g., Canada; EU)? If so, how?
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Climate Change Conference:Emerging Answers to Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?
• Should some entities receive allocations of allowances? If so, which entities and why?
• Should a U.S. GHG cap-and-trade system interface with other cap-and-trade systems (e.g., Canada; EU)? If so, how?– Careful and well-structured linkages to other systems (e.g., comparable
programs for allowing offsets to increased emissions) are desirable.
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Climate Change Conference:Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?
• Should some entities receive allocations of allowances? If so, which entities and why?
• Should a U.S. GHG cap-and-trade system interface with other cap-and-trade systems (e.g., Canada; EU)? If so, how?
• How should the implementation of a U.S. system factor in actions by other GHG emitters who are International economic competitors (e.g., China, India)?
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Climate Change Conference:Emerging Answers to Key Questions
• Who would be regulated? Where in the flow of GHGs through the economy would regulation occur?
• Should some entities receive allocations of allowances? If so, which entities and why?
• Should a U.S. GHG cap-and-trade system interface with other cap-and-trade systems (e.g., Canada; EU)? If so, how?
• How should the implementation of a U.S. system factor in actions by other GHG emitters who are International economic competitors (e.g., China, India)?– Take a first step, but condition further steps on a review of whether
countries like China and India are beginning to control their GHGs.