1st Workshop on developing Croatian Low-Emission Development Strategy

Ministry of Environmental and Nature Protection (MZOIP), UNDP

Thursday 14th June 2012, Zagreb, HGK, Nova cesta 3-7

Review of relevant documents for background information

Vladimir Jelavić dr.sc. EKONERG

Energy and climate documents

The Plan for protection and improvement of air quality in Croatia for for

the period of 2008. to 2011. (NN 61/08)HGH emission reduction scenarios for post-Kyoto period till 2009., with view on 2030

and 2050. (EKONERG, 2009)

Croatian energy sector development strategy, (NN 130/09)Fifth National Communication of Croatia under the UNFCCC, (MZOPUG, 2010)

Plan for implementation of article 3.3 and 3.4 of Kyoto protocol (EKONERG,and

Croatian Forest Company, 2010)

Draft National Renewable Action Plan, Republic of Croatia, Prepared in accordance

with the requirements of Directive 2009/28/EC Article 4 (1,2) (Ministry of Economy,

Labour and Entepreneurship, 2010)

Croatian GHG Emission Projection Report, (AZO, 2011)

National Inventory Report for 2010, (AZO, 2012)

The Plan for protection and improvement of air quality in

Croatia for for the period of 2008. to 2011. (NN 61/08)

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HGH emission reduction scenarios for post-Kyoto period till 2009.,

with view on 2030 and 2050. (EKONERG, 2009)

Glavne mjere za smanjenje emisije održivog scenarija

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

CO

2-eq

Nova nuklearna 1000 MW

CCS-izdvajanje i skladištenje CO2

Mjere u sektoru otpad

Mjere u poljoprivredi

Mjere u industrijskim procesima

Promjena goriva i ostale mjere

Obnovljivi izvori energije

Energetska učinkovitost

Održivi scenarij

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HGH emission reduction scenarios for post-Kyoto period till 2009., with view on 2030 and 2050. (EKONERG, 2009)

-22% u odnosu na BAU,

u 2020. godini

-5% u odnosu na Baznu godinu

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

CO

2-e

q

Scenarij 'bez mjera' Scenarij 's mjerama' Scenarij 's dodatnim mjerama' -5% u odnosu na Baznu godinu

‘Green book’ - Croatian energy sector development strategy, (NN 130/09)

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Fifth National Communication of Croatia under the UNFCCC, (MZOPUG, 2010)

GHG emission of Republic of Croatia and targets

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Gg

CO

2-eq

GHG emission

Base year

95% of Base year

95% of year 1990

Peto nacionalno izvješće RH prema UNFCCC-u, MZOPUG 2009

Draft National Renewable Action Plan, Republic of Croatia, Prepared in accordance with the requirements

of Directive 2009/28/EC Article 4 (1,2) (Ministry of Economy, Labour and Entepreneurship, 2010)

Example – transport sector

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The main measures till 2020The main measures till 2020

- Energy efficiency

- According EU directive 206/32/EC, 10% energy consumption

reduction in 2020 comparing to average consumption in 2001-2005

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The main measures till 2020The main measures till 2020

Renewable sources

- 20% of gross net consumption in 2020, calculated target (Energy

Strategy)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Bulga

ria

Latv

ia

Roman

ia

Croat

ia

Slova

kia

Eston

ia

Czech

Rep

.

Lith

uani

a

Polan

d

Hunga

ry

Slove

nia

Finlan

d

Luxe

mb.

Portu

gal

Cypru

s

Mal

ta

Spain

Belgiu

m

Gre

ece

Austri

a

Sweden

EU-27

Italy

Nethe

rl.

Ger

man

y

Franc

e

Irelan

d UK

Denm

ark

%

Increase comparing the year 2005

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The main measures till 2020The main measures till 2020

Renewable energy:

Sectorial goals:

- 35% in electricity production

- 10% in transport

- 21% in heating and cooling

Contribution to 20% target:

- RES in electricity 9,2 %

- RES in transport 2,2 %

- RES in heating and cooling 8,6%

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The measures in other sectorsThe measures in other sectors

In process industry

In waste management

In agriculture

In land use change and forestry (LULUCF)

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Where we can reduce emissions?

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Where in energy sectors?

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Through indicatorsThrough indicators

Države Priloga 1 CO2eq/stanovnik u odnosu na BDP/ stanovnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

US$/stanovnik (PPP 2004)tC

O2-e

q/st

anov

nik Hrvatska 2004

EU

Države Priloga 1 CO2eq/stanovnik u odnosu na BDP/ stanovnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

US$/stanovnik (PPP 2004)tC

O2-e

q/st

anov

nik Hrvatska 2004

EU

Udio Hrvatske u Svijetu, %

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

Površina

Stanovnika

Nominalni BDP

Ukupna potrošnjaenergije

Proizvodnja el.en.

CO2-eq emisija

Low carbon pathway for Croatia

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ZaključnoZaključno

Prilike:

- Smanjenje ovisnosti o uvozu

- Smanjenje troškova u sektorima gdje se primjenjuje energetska efikasnost

- Povećanje sigurnosti energetske opskrbe

- Razvoj novih gospodarskih aktivnosti i otvaranje radnih mjesta

- Smanjenje onečišćenja zraka

Izazovi:

- Kako ubrzati primjenu OIE

- Socio-gospodarski aspekt povećanja cijena zbog troškova ugljika

- Opasnosti gubitka konkurentnosti i povećanje ovisnosti o stranim tehnologijama

- ‘curenje ugljika’

- Odluka o primijeni CCS

- Nuklearna energija

Thank you