lecture iii south korean economy todayswan.ewha.ac.kr/lecture3_south korean economy_current...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lecture IIISouth Korean Economy today
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Lecture 3: South Korean Economy - Current Status and Issues in the future
South Korean Economy: Current Status 1
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Korean Economy with Numbers
• GDP (PPP based)
S. Korea $ 2.03 Trillion (2017 est)
N. Korea $ 40 Billion (2015 est)
Germany $ 4.15 Trillion (2017 est)
Taiwan $ 1.185 Trillion (2017 est)
Hong Kong $ 454.9 Billion (2017 est)
UK $ 2.88 Trillion (2017 est)
Japan $ 5.41 Trillion (2017 est)
China $ 23.12 Trillion (2017 est)
U.S. $ 19.36 Trillion (2017 est)
India $ 9.45 Trillion (2017 est)
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Korean Economy with Numbers
• GDP/person
S. Korea $ 39,400 (2017 est)
N. Korea $ 1,700 (2015 est)
Germany $ 50,200 (2017 est)
Taiwan $ 50,300 (2017 est)
Hong Kong $ 61,400 (2017 est)
UK $ 43,600 (2017 est)
Japan $ 42,700 (2017 est)
China $ 16,600 (2017 est)
U.S. $ 59,500 (2017 est)
India $ 7,200 (2017 est)
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U.K.’s average family and Possessions
Income/person:
$42,500
Life Expectancy:
81
Iliteracy:
1%
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Income/person:
$18,900
Life Expectancy:
76
Illiteracy:
8%
Mexico’s average family and Possessions
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Income/person:
$2,300
Life Expectancy:
50
Iliteracy:
56%
Mali’s average family and Possessions
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Korean Economy with Numbers
• GDP Growth Rate
S. Korea 3.0% (2017 est) ← 2.7% (2016)
N. Korea -1.1% (2015 est) ← 1% (2014)
Germany 2.1% (2017 est) ← 1.7% (2016)
Taiwan 2.8% (2017 est) ← 1.4% (2016)
Hong Kong 3.8% (2017 est) ← 2.1% (2016)
UK 1.7% (2017 est) ← 1.8% (2016)
Japan 1.5% (2017 est) ← 0.5% (2016)
China 6.8% (2017 est) ← 6.6% (2016)
U.S. 2.2% (2017 est) ← 1.6% (2016)
India 6.7% (2017 est) ← 7.6% (2016)
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Korean Economy with Numbers
• Unemployment Rate
S. Korea 3.8% (2017)
N. Korea N.A.
Taiwan 3.8% (2017)
Germany 3.8% (2017)
Hong Kong 3.1% (2017)
UK 4.4% (2017)
Japan 2.9% (2017)
China 4.0% (2017)
U.S. 4.4% (2017)
India 8.8% (2017)
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Korean Economy with Numbers
• Inflation Rate
S. Korea 1.9% (2017 est)
N. Korea N.A.
Germany 1.6% (2017 est)
Taiwan 0.6% (2017 est)
Hong Kong 1.5% (2017 est)
UK 2.6% (2017 est)
Japan 0.4% (2017 est)
China 1.8% (2017 est)
U.S. 2.1% (2017 est)
India 3.8% (2017 est)
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Korean Economy with More Numbers
• GDP by Industrial Sector
2.4%
38.7%
58.9%
Agriculture and Fisheries
Manufacturing
Service
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Korean Economy with More Numbers
• Labor Force by Industrial Sector
6.90%
23.60%
69.50%
Agriculture and Fisheries
Manufacturing
Service
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Lecture 3: South Korean Economy - Current Status and Issues in the future
South Korean Economy: Current Status 2
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Korean Economy with More Numbers
• Income Distribution (2016)
6.40%
37.70%
Lowest 10%
Highest 10%
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Korean Economy with More Numbers
• Gini Index
S. Korea 34.1 (2015)
N. Korea N.A.
Germany 27 (2008)
Taiwan 33.6 (2014)
Hong Kong 53.9 (2016)
U.K. 32.4 (2012)
Japan 38 (2011)
China 47.4 (2016)
U.S. 45 (2007)
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Philippines and Argentina
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The Polarization of Income Distribution (Spoon Theory)
Gold Spoon Silver Spoon Bronze Spoon Soil Spoon
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The Polarization of Income Distribution
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Korean Economy with More Numbers
• Export: $ 552 Billion (2017)
- China (26%), U.S. (13.3%), HK (5.8%), Vietnam (5.3%),
Japan (4.9%)
• Import: $ 448 Billion (2017)
- China (20.7%), Japan (10.5%), US (10.1%), Germany (4.8%),
Saudi Arabia (4.5%)
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Korean Economy with More Numbers
• Foreign Reserve:
- $ 402 Billion (end of 2017)
• Exchange Rate:
- 1139 Won/$ (as of October 2018)
- 1088 Won/$ (end of 2017)
- 1208 Won/$ (end of 2016)
- 1084 Won/$ (end of 2015)
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The Shape of Korean Economy with Numbers
• Foreign reserves
Souce: HaverAnalytics*Estonia, Slovenia, China, Taiwan, Vietnam,
Saudi Arabia and Israel excluding gold
including gold*, $bn, latest
Aregentina 45.3Oct China 3,305.3Sep
Brazil 377.8Oct Hong Kong 302.4Oct
Chile 38.9Oct India 295.3Oct
Colombia 36.4Oct Indonesia 110.3Oct
Mexico 162.4Oct Malaysia 138.3Oct
Peru 62Oct Pakistan 15.2Jun
Venezuela 25.9Oct Philippines 82.1Oct
Czech Republic 44.1Oct Singapore 254.2Oct
Estonia 0.3Sep South Korea 323.5Oct
Hungary 45.5Oct Taiwan 398Q3
Latvia 6.9Oct Thailand 181.4Oct
Lithuania 8.3Oct Vietnam 20.4Jul
Poland 105.9Oct Egypt 15.5Oct
Russia 526.8Oct Israel 75.9Oct
Slovakia nilSep Saudi Arabia 621.5Sep
Slovenia 0.9Oct South Africa 50.7Oct
Turkey 117.7Jul
Ukraine 26.8Oct
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Lecture 3: South Korean Economy - Current Status and Issues in the future
Current Economic Problems in Korea
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Current Economic Problems in Korea
• Still Slow global (Chinese) Economy
• Young workers’ low employment
• N. Korea’s threat with atomic bomb and THAAD
• Government, Households, and Corporations’ Debt
• US‘ new government
• Structural reforms
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The Best Economy in the World
LuxembourgBest per person income2012 reading: $106,958
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The Best Economy in the World
LuxembourgBest per person income2012 reading: $106,958
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The Best Economy in the World
MadagascarLowest government debt2012 reading: 5%
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The Best Economy in the World
MadagascarLowest government debt2012 reading: 5%
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The Best Economy in the World
United StatesLargest economy2012 reading: $15.6 Trillion
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The Best Economy in the World
LibyaFastest economic growth2012 reading: 76%
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The Best Economy in the World
LibyaFastest economic growth2012 reading: 76%
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The Best Economy in the World
MongoliaLargest Investment 64% of GDP
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The Best Economy in the World
MongoliaLargest Investment 64% of GDP
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Lecture 3: South Korean Economy - Current Status and Issues in the future
Issues in the future of Korean economy
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Issues in the future of Korean economy
• Aging Economy
• Female workers’ more participation in labor mkt
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Aging Economy
• Reasons?
- Low Fertility Rate (4.5 → 0.9)
- Increase in Avg Life Expectancy (63 → 76)
• Entering the Aging Economy in 10 years
- Unprecedented in other countries
- U.S. 71 yrs, France 115 yrs, Sweden 85 yrs, Japan 24 yrs
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The Fastest Progress to Aged Economy
Source:Statistics Korea
1960 2050
Male MaleFemale Female
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Aging Economy
• Results?
- decreasing labor force
- decreasing savings
- low economic growth
- government budget worsens
- pension worsens
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Female Workers
• Without Increasing Female Workers Labor Force Participation,
there will not be Economic Growth?
• If S. Korea want to be a member of the riches countries, the
female labor force participation rate should be doubled!
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Korean Female Workers’ Labor Force Participation Rate by Edu Level (%)
year totalBelowEle S
Below Mid S
BelowHigh S
BelowCollege
Above College
2006 48.8 44.8 42.3 49.7 60.9 58.3
2007 49.3 43.7 43.0 50.7 61.5 58.5
2008 49.8 43.0 43.4 51.5 62.1 59.2
2009 49.0 40.1 40.9 51.5 61.7 58.3
2010 49.9 39.5 41.1 53.1 62.7 60.1
2011 50.1 38.9 40.9 63.4 63.1 60.3
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Korea’s place in OECE countries in terms of women’s labor activities
Segment Rate Korea’s ranking
Female unemployment rate
2.8 28th
Female employment-to-population ratio
53.2 24th
Percentage of femalesworking or seeking work
54.7 28th
Percentage of femalesamong part-time workers
59.0 30th
Wage gap betweenmale and female workers
38.0 1st
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
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Other Issues in the future of Korean economy
• Integration of Far-East Asian Countries: China, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea
• Disappearing Industries: Which one?
• Old population: Very fast!
• Reunification of South and North Korea: Economic Effect
• China’s Influence: Continues
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Lecture 3: South Korean Economy - Current Status and Issues in the future
The End