lecture 9 project scheduling: networks, duration...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lecture 9
Project Scheduling: Networks,
Duration Estimation, and
Critical Path
By : Prof. Lili Saghafi
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 1
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Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
� Understand and apply key scheduling terminology.
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terminology.
� Apply the logic used to create activity networks, including predecessor and successor tasks.
� Develop an activity network using Activity-on-Node (AON) techniques.
� Perform activity duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating techniques.
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Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
� Construct the critical path for a project schedule network using forward and backward passes.
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network using forward and backward passes.
� Identify activity float and the manner in which it is determined.
� Calculate the probability of a project finishing on time under PERT estimates.
� Understand the steps that can be employed to reduce the critical path.
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Project Scheduling
� Project scheduling requires us to follow some carefully laid-out steps, in order, for the schedule to take shape.
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� Project planning, as it relates to the scheduling process, has been defined by the PMBoK as:
The identification of the project objectives and the ordered activity necessary to complete the project including the identification of resource types and quantities required to carry out each activity or task.
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Project Scheduling Terms
�Successors
�Predecessors
�Network diagram
�Serial activities
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�Serial activities
�Concurrent activities
ED
C
B
A F
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Project Scheduling Terms
• Merge activities
• Burst activities
• Node
• Path
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ED
C
B
A F
• Path
• Critical Path
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Network Diagrams
FIGURE 9.2 Alternative Activity Networks for Term Paper Assignment Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
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AOA Versus AON
The same mini-project is shown with activities on arc…
E
C
DB F
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C
ED
B F
C
…and activities on node.
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Node Labels
Early Start ID Number Early Finish
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Activity FloatActivity Descriptor
Late Start Activity Duration Late Finish
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Activity Node Labels Using MS Project 2010
FIGURE 9.4
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Serial Activities
Serial activities are those that flow from one to the next, in sequence.
FIGURE 9.5
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Activities Linked in Parallel (Concurrent)
When the nature of the work allows for more than one activityto be accomplished at the same time, these activities are calledconcurrent and parallel project paths are constructed through thenetwork.
FIGURE 9.6
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Merge Activity
FIGURE 9.7
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Burst Activity
FIGURE 9.8
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Complete Activity Network
FIGURE 9.10
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Developing the Activity Network Using MS
Project 2010
FIGURE 9.11
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Duration Estimation Methods
� Past experience
� Expert opinion
� Mathematical derivation – Beta distribution
� Most likely (m)
� Most pessimistic (b)
� Most optimistic (a)
2
2 = 6
b aActivity Variance s
− =
4 = TE
6
a m bActivity Duration
+ +=
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FIGURE 9.14 Symmetrical (Normal) Distribution for
Activity Duration Estimation
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FIGURE 9.15 Asymmetrical (Beta) Distribution for Activity Duration Estimation
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Activity Duration and VarianceName: Project Delta
Durations are listed in weeks
Activity Description Optimistic Likely Pessimistic
A Contract signing 3 4 11
Table 9.2
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B Questionnaire design 2 5 8
C Target market ID 3 6 9
D Survey sample 8 12 20
E Develop presentation 3 5 12
F Analyze results 2 4 7
G Demographic analysis 6 9 14
H Presentation to client 1 2 4
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Constructing the Critical Path
� Forward pass – an additive move through the network from start to finish
� Backward pass – a subtractive move through the
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� Backward pass – a subtractive move through the network from finish to start
� Critical path – the longest path from end to end which determines the shortest project length
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Rules for Forward/Backward Pass
Forward Pass Rules (ES & EF)� ES + Duration = EF
� EF of predecessor = ES of successor
� Largest preceding EF at a merge point becomes EF for
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� Largest preceding EF at a merge point becomes EF for successor
Backward Pass Rules (LS & LF)� LF – Duration = LS
� LS of successor = LF of predecessor
� Smallest succeeding LS at a burst point becomes LF for predecessor
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Project Delta Information
Project Delta
Activity Description Predecessors Estimated Duration
A Contract signing None 5
Table 9.4
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B Questionnaire design A 5
C Target market ID A 6
D Survey sample B, C 13
E Develop presentation B 6
F Analyze results D 4
G Demographic analysis C 9
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FIGURE 9.16 Partial Project Activity Network with Task Durations
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FIGURE 9.18 Activity Network with Forward Pass
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FIGURE 9.19 Activity Network with Backward Pass
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FIGURE 9.20 Project Network with Activity Slack and Critical Path
Note: Critical path is indicated with bold arrows.
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AON Network with Laddering Effect
FIGURE 9.24
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Laddering ActivitiesProject ABC can be completed more efficiently if subtasks are used
A(3) B(6) C(9) ABC=18 days
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Laddered ABC=12 days
A1(1) A2(1) A3(1)
B1(2) B2(2) B3(2)
C1(3) C2(3) C3(3)
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Example of a Hammock Activity
FIGURE 9.25
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Reducing the Critical Path
� Eliminate tasks on the CP
� Convert serial paths to parallel when possible
� Overlap sequential tasks
Shorten the duration on critical path tasks
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� Shorten the duration on critical path tasks
� Shorten
� early tasks
� longest tasks
� easiest tasks
� tasks that cost the least to speed up
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Summary
1. Understand and apply key scheduling terminology.
2. Apply the logic used to create activity networks, including predecessor and successor tasks.
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
including predecessor and successor tasks.
3. Develop an activity network using Activity-on-Node (AON) techniques.
4. Perform activity duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating techniques.
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Summary
5. Construct the critical path for a project schedule network using forward and backward passes.
6. Identify activity float and the manner in which it is determined.
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is determined.
7. Calculate the probability of a project finishing on time under PERT estimates.
8. Understand the steps that can be employed to reduce the critical path.
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