Lecture 28: Now Lecture 28: Now What?What?

March 13, 2009March 13, 2009

Additional CLUE SessionAdditional CLUE Session

Monday 3/16, 228 in MGH from 6:30 Monday 3/16, 228 in MGH from 6:30 to 8:00 to 8:00

Growth DisparitiesGrowth Disparities

Foreign Aid, % Gross National Foreign Aid, % Gross National IncomeIncome

0.5 1.0

UN target 0.7% GNI

(The Reality of Aid 2004, www.realityofaid.org)

NorwayDenmark

NetherlandsSweden

BelgiumIrelandFrance

SwitzerlandUnited Kingdom

GermanyCanada

AustraliaSpain

New ZealandPortugal

JapanItaly

U.S.A

ChallengesChallenges

Global warmingGlobal warming Global inequality Global inequality Humanitarian crisesHumanitarian crises Accommodating rising powersAccommodating rising powers Barriers to collective action: diverging Barriers to collective action: diverging

interests, idealsinterests, ideals North vs. south North vs. south Democracy idealists vs. touchy autocrats Democracy idealists vs. touchy autocrats Conflicts of interest based on economic Conflicts of interest based on economic

positionposition

What is to be done?What is to be done? Tweak existing institutionsTweak existing institutions

UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa?Nigeria/South Africa?

IMF/World Bank ReformIMF/World Bank Reform Create new institutionsCreate new institutions

Successor to Kyoto Successor to Kyoto New Bretton Woods? (Washington 11-15-08)New Bretton Woods? (Washington 11-15-08)

Regulate exotic tradingRegulate exotic trading Restrain excessive borrowingRestrain excessive borrowing Prevent currency manipulationPrevent currency manipulation Result of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little Result of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little

actionaction New financial architecture can’t be designed overnightNew financial architecture can’t be designed overnight Problem: enforcement, as alwaysProblem: enforcement, as always

LeadershipLeadership US?US? Others?Others?

Name the era…Name the era… Fareed Zakaria: The Post-American WorldFareed Zakaria: The Post-American World

““while we argue over why they hate us, "they" have while we argue over why they hate us, "they" have moved on, and are now far more interested in other, moved on, and are now far more interested in other, more dynamic parts of the globe. The world has shifted more dynamic parts of the globe. The world has shifted from anti-Americanism to from anti-Americanism to postpost-Americanism.”-Americanism.”

Richard Haass: NonpolarityRichard Haass: Nonpolarity ““The principal characteristic of twenty-first-century The principal characteristic of twenty-first-century

international relations is turning out to be nonpolarity: a international relations is turning out to be nonpolarity: a world dominated not by one or two or even several states world dominated not by one or two or even several states but rather by dozens of actors possessing and exercising but rather by dozens of actors possessing and exercising various kinds of power. This represents a tectonic shift various kinds of power. This represents a tectonic shift from the past…Nonpolarity complicates diplomacy. A from the past…Nonpolarity complicates diplomacy. A nonpolar world not only involves more actors but also nonpolar world not only involves more actors but also lacks the more predictable fixed structures and lacks the more predictable fixed structures and relationships that tend to define worlds of unipolarity, relationships that tend to define worlds of unipolarity, bipolarity, or multipolarity.” bipolarity, or multipolarity.”

What is to be done?What is to be done? Tweak existing institutionsTweak existing institutions

UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South AfricaNigeria/South Africa

IMF/World Bank ReformIMF/World Bank Reform Create new institutionsCreate new institutions

New Bretton Woods? (Washington 11-15-08)New Bretton Woods? (Washington 11-15-08) Regulate exotic tradingRegulate exotic trading Restrain excessive deficitsRestrain excessive deficits Monitor currency manipulationMonitor currency manipulation Result of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little actionResult of 11/08: lame duck president, lots of words, little action New financial architecture can’t be designed overnightNew financial architecture can’t be designed overnight Problem: enforcement, as alwaysProblem: enforcement, as always

Successor to Kyoto Successor to Kyoto LeadershipLeadership

US?US? Others?Others? Shared/collective leadership: G-20? (London: April 2, 2009)Shared/collective leadership: G-20? (London: April 2, 2009)

G-20: The Future?G-20: The Future?

What is to be done?What is to be done? Tweak existing institutionsTweak existing institutions

UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, UN Security Council: add Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, Nigeria/South AfricaBrazil, India, Nigeria/South Africa

IMF/World Bank ReformIMF/World Bank Reform Create new institutionsCreate new institutions

New Bretton Woods? (Washington 11-15-08)New Bretton Woods? (Washington 11-15-08) Successor to Kyoto Successor to Kyoto

LeadershipLeadership US?US? Others?Others? Shared leadership: G-20? (London: April 2, Shared leadership: G-20? (London: April 2,

2009)2009) Non-state actors: non-profitsNon-state actors: non-profits The “masses”The “masses”

Into the 21Into the 21stst Century… Century…

Dubai

……or back to the 20or back to the 20thth??